- Nov 2023
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globalprioritiesinstitute.org globalprioritiesinstitute.org
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Do ‘broad’ approaches to improving effective governance, and ultimately serving the farfuture, tend to be more or less effective in expectation than ‘narrow’ approaches (such asworking on reducing the risk of bioengineered pandemics)?
A very big question -- would be helpful to pose some possible building blocks to answering this question that gives people a hint at how to take a stab at it.
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How can evidence be disseminated mosteffectively?
Disseminate: By whom, to whom, with what theory of change/path to impact?
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Under what conditions should a social planner preserve ‘option value’ bydelaying an important, irreversible decision to acquire more information, thereby delegatingdecision-making authority to future agents with potentially different values and preferences(cf. Bishop 1982; Dixit and Pindyck 1994)?
To me this seems distinct from the rest of the bullet point
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hen et al 2023; Toma andBell 2023
biblio entries missing
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Intergenerational governance and policy-making
It's unclear whether we are talking about A. "intergenerational governance and international policymaking" or
B. "1. International governance and 2. Policymaking in general".
The latter bullet points and cited papers (e.g., Vivalt and Coville) do not seem to always relate to intergenerational governance
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Vivalt, Coville, KC 2023
This seems relevant for The Unjournal's consideration/evaluation (but this may fall into the 'ask authors' permission' category). It is empirical and apparently rigorously quantitative and seems highly-relevant to policymaking and impact evaluation research, and influencing policy, all crucial to 'the impact agenda'. Hopefully also follows open, robust science standards (prereg, etc.).
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Gonzalez-Ricoy and Gosseries 2017
biblio entry missing
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Can we design mechanisms to ensure that AI systems exhibit desirable behavioursuch as truth-telling or a lack of deception?
Perhaps this should be elaborated and defined somewhat more formally. Reference a particular issue in mechanism design here that is particularly relevant to AI systems, perhaps.
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govern powerful non-state entities
I'm not sure what is meant by 'powerful non-state entities' here. This seems under-defined.
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inequalities,
political inequalities?
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Read and Toma, 2023
biblio entry missing. Would be useful to know what this one is.
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Song et al 2012)
biblio missing
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Healy and Malhorta 2009
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economic models predict the impact of advancedAI systems on political institutions and inequalities
A reference would be very helpful here. It's hard for me to see what sort of economic models are relevant here.
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(Acemoglu, 2023
biblio missing. This seem potentially relevant for an Unjournal evaluation, although we tend not to focus on 'broad think piece' work, which this might be
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Bersiroglu andErdil, 2023
biblio entry missing
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Shulman, C., & Thornley, E. (2023). How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism'sLimited Role. In Barratt, Greaves, Thorstad (eds.) Essays on Longtermism.
interesting but probably not quantitative/formally specific enough for The Unjournal
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Alexandrie and Eden, forthcoming
biblio missing
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E.g. Jordà et al. 2022
not sure this is getting at 'long run' in the sense that longtermists care about
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ased on the historical record of such events, what is the tail distributionof harmful impacts (e.g., fatalities) from pandemics, asteroids, wars, and other potentialdisasters? (E.g. Marani 2021;
not really economics but that's not so important
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Aschenbrenner2019
biblio entry missing
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2023
This is mainly about the welfare tradeoff between economic growth and x-risk in a theoretical sense; I don't think it's about the 'impact of growth on GCRs' per se
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Klenow et al. 2023
biblio entry missing
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To what extent are forecasting methods informative for assessing the probability of globalcatastrophic risks and other future events of special importance for social welfare? (Karger
empirical and seems very relevant and strong; adding it to the Unjournal database
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Karger, E., Rosenberg, J., Jacobs, Z., Hickman, M., Hadshar, R., Gamin, K., ... & Tetlock, P. E. (2023). ForecastingExistential Risks Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament. FRI Working Paper No. 1.
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Kalai & Kalai 2001)
biblio entry missing
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Andreoni 2018
this is a practical applied policy paper that seems informative for donors considering their own charity decisionmaking
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1.1 Strategic issues in altruistic decision
they largely mention theory papers (micro theory, optimization, axiomatic/normative), not empirical work here
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(cf.Andreoni & Payne 2003)
The Andreoni and Payne paper is about the government crowdout of private philanthropy (there are a bunch of papers about this), not about the reverse nor about crowding out among donors.
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Whatdetermines the optimal spending schedule for altruistic decision-makers?
Practically speaking, this seems largely about the impact of interventions (funded by charity) over time; however it does connect with donors' to the extent it involves personal finance and issues like value drift.
OK but the Trammell paper is addressing something different -- coordination in a public goods provision model.
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n altruistic decision-maker that funds a charitable intervention may crowd out fundingfrom other actors (e.g., governments or philanthropists)
I might add a related issue -- decisions to give to one charity may crowd out other donations; the extent to which this is the case ('donations are substitutes') informs strategies for convincing people to give 'more effectively' vs 'give to effective causes.' See my notes: https://daaronr.github.io/ea_giving_barriers/chapters/substitution.html
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Research agenda draft for GPI Economics
Does anyone know if this is the most updated statement of GPI’s economics agenda?
“Economics ‘draft agenda’” Anyone know when it was updated?
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