As AI diffuses, annual GDP growth rates reach 15% a year, leading the economy to double in size every 4.5 years.
【数据】极端情景下的GDP增长率预测达到惊人的15%,这意味着经济每4.5年翻一番,这种指数级增长预测远超历史任何技术革命,体现了模型对AI经济潜力的激进估计。
As AI diffuses, annual GDP growth rates reach 15% a year, leading the economy to double in size every 4.5 years.
【数据】极端情景下的GDP增长率预测达到惊人的15%,这意味着经济每4.5年翻一番,这种指数级增长预测远超历史任何技术革命,体现了模型对AI经济潜力的激进估计。
In the extreme scenario, AI is more productive than humans at the vast majority of knowledge-work tasks. It does nearly all of them autonomously, and it creates essentially no new knowledge tasks for people.
【数据】极端情景下的具体数据预测:AI将自主完成绝大多数知识工作,几乎不为人创造新的知识任务,这一预测反映了模型对AI能力发展的激进假设,值得验证。