So I don't see why I should expect compute-poor labs to find new software innovations much faster than compute-rich labs — on the contrary, I think the opposite is more likely.
【过度推论】作者列举了 Transformer、scaling laws、reasoning models 均出自算力富裕方，就得出「算力富裕者更擅长创新」。但这是幸存者偏差：我们只看到了被广泛采用的创新，看不到算力贫乏者产出但未被主流采纳的创新。更重要的是，样本量极小（屈指可数的几个大突破），却被用来支撑一个关于系统性趋势的强结论，统计基础极为薄弱。