The biggest driver of uncertainty on the diversion side is that we don't know what fraction of diversion has been observed. The large-scale smuggling schemes detected and reported so far could represent the majority of the volume, or they might be just a small fraction of the total flows.
大多数人认为已曝光的大型走私案件代表了走私活动的主体，但作者指出这些已知的案件可能只是冰山一角，实际走私规模可能是已知的数倍，这挑战了我们对当前走私情况掌握程度的认知。