The EUR 2.1B tax revenue estimate uses average earnings of EUR 55,000, Germany's income-to-GDP multiplier, and its tax-to-GDP ratio. Individual contributions vary widely.

Migration is a life-changing event for everyone involved, and the decision to migrate is usually based on a bundle of very diverse reasons, hopes and dreams. Career opportunities, bureaucracy, housing costs, institutional trust, and quality of life all play a role.

At average earnings of EUR 55,000, that represents approximately EUR 2.6 billion in earning potential. And as salaries amount to about half of GDP, that leads to an estimated GDP loss of EUR 5 billion – and to an upper-bound estimate of EUR 2.1 billion in annual tax revenue loss (based on Germany's aggregate tax-to-GDP ratio, which includes VAT and corporate tax, so the actual personal income tax loss is lower). Over a decade, cumulative foregone tax revenue reaches approximately EUR 21 billion.

19 countries report both datasets – with Norway being the only non-EU country among them. 9 EU countries do not report emigration by country of birth and are excluded from the birthplace-based comparison: Cyprus, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Malta, Poland, and Portugal.

The two migration metrics

the commonly used metrics understate its scale – and its impact.

Over a decade, that is approximately EUR 21 billion

Estimated annual GDP loss: approximately EUR 5 billion Estimated annual tax revenue loss: approximately EUR 2.1 billion

With salaries amounting to about half of GDP, the estimated German GDP loss of native migration is in the region of EUR 5 bn. At Germany’s aggregate tax-to-GDP ratio (~42%), this yields an upper-bound estimate of approximately EUR 2.1 bn in annual tax revenue loss. (This is not an estimate for the loss of income tax, but for the loss of aggregate tax revenue, summing up all taxes from VAT to corporate tax.)

Migration is a life-changing event for everyone involved, and the decision to migrate is usually based on a bundle of very diverse reasons, hopes and dreams. Career opportunities, bureaucracy, housing costs, and quality of life all play a role. With "life" on the main stage, and "money" as supporting actor:

Spot the Swiss-German Difference

On the other hand: Swiss gross salaries for equivalent roles

of the same gross salary

The trend

In 2024, the Netherlands has lost 17,317 native-born people to emigration.

For German emigrants the top three countries are Switzerland,

The Money Math:

A significant push factor in this case may be the elevated cost of living: The Netherlands has the highest housing cost overburden for market-rate renters in Western Europe (39.5%, Eurostat).

Spain's economic recovery is gradually closing the wealth gap with Northern European countries that opened up after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008/09 – the Brain Drain recovery is still lagging far behind.

In 2024, Spain lost 31,548 people born and raised there.

for the first time in more than 50 years, caused mainly by a sharp tightening of migration policies for foreigners.

The native-born outflow is a different story: it is more about careers and opportunities. And about kids:

The causes of the native-born tripling of net emigration

has been debated in Italy for decades: year for year, thousands of students leave the country after graduation. But

Italy's net loss of 64,917 is the second largest absolute outflow in our dataset, second only to Germany.

+80% increase since 2019

the country now gained +7,747 native-born citizens in the year 2024.

No 2019 baseline

but a thriving economy

Croatia could reduce its net loss

(39.5%).

A significant push factor in this case may be elevated cost of living:

Sweden's native-born net outflow

The Netherlands and Luxembourg are common destinations – suggesting that cross-border commuting also plays a role.

This follows a common pattern of migration flows: The ones that are on the move belong to the younger working-age cohort, they are not

By 2024, that number had fallen

(emigration numbers are roughly stable since 2016)

Switzerland offers a dramatically lower tax burden: a professional earning EUR 75,000 gross takes home EUR 14,550 less per year in Munich than in Zurich;

the second largest absolute outflow in our dataset. Second only to Germany, and up

people born there. It's only a part of the whole migration story, eg. Germany's

Every year, hundreds of thousands

Brain Drain: European Countries

its largest in decades

While native-born immigration to Sweden remained rather stable lately, the emigration numbers rose significantly.

Luxembourg

comparison: Cyprus, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Malta, Poland, and Portugal.

9 EU countries

Croatia, though still counting net losses, have

2025). And it is also rapidly growing: over

The willingness to migrate is high among German talents

data about the share of university graduates

Who Is Leaving Germany? Skilled people.

just relocating themselves – they

German-borns: 140,000 Leaving, Only 50,000 Coming Back

As the migrants are predominantly working-age, and they mostly leave for high-salary economies, all data

This Eurostat dataset contains information about the age profile and the destinations of these migrants - but not about education levels.

a measure

a different, less known Eurostat

life.

The top three destinations for German migrants

net losses reduced by 79% and 80%

with an extremely high share of families with children among the leaving persons

After only slightly net negative migration numbers for domestically born citizens in the 2010s, the losses

has only reached passport holders yet

the 2024 spike may be exaggerated, as it is partly due to

for 2024 show for Spain a net migration gain of +6,616 citizens

nevertheless, the underlying brain-drain trend remains clear

2024). But it's an important and often overlooked part: The

drain: people a country invested in from day 1 opt to continue (or start) their career somewhere else. It's a widespread trend in Europe - 17 of 19 measured countries suffer net losses.