30 Matching Annotations
  1. Apr 2017
    1. I will put in the record an oped from The Wall Street Journal called “Keeping cool” about hot temperatures which points out that even though it is claimed that 2016 was the hottest year on record and 2015 was the hottest year on record before that 2014 the hottest year before that–all three instances the temperatures were within the margin of error and that in fact in 2014 NASA admitted that they were only 38 percent confident of that temperature. That is less than half

      The OpEd is not peer reviewed literature and focuses on the question of which year is the hottest rather than on what is the trend in climate change. The NASA website clearly states that 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurred since 2001 (climate.nasa.gov/evidence/) which demonstrates the importance of the long-term trend of increasing temperatures.

    2. “The idea of warmer oceans translating into more snowfall seems to be a real one but then there is glacier dynamics, it’s a very complex situation.”… “It’s really only the last decades or so that have had really really good measurements of glacier topography and we can really track the mass balance so we do need the observations from satellites and also field experiments to sort out this issue.”… “There is uncertainty but you are seeing  the accumulation over East Antarctic whereas on the West Antarctic Ice shelves you are seeing net melting so there is some spatial variability. And there is significant uncertainties in our estimates of all this particularly the further back you go.”

      While these statements are mostly accurate, they do not answer the question posed by Mr. Brooks or support his interpretation.

    3. What we generally see in the news media is that if there is global warming, and it makes sense at first blush, well you’re going to see ice melt and you’re going to see the sea levels rise, so we are going to have all sorts of damage to our coastal areas as a consequence. But while I was here in Antarctica, I met with a number of National Science Foundations that all contended that there was some degree of global warming but they added that if there was a slight or modest global warming that the sea levels would fall not rise. Let me emphasize that: that the sea levels if there is slight or modest global warming will fall not rise.” “First that the principal amount of ice on the planet is here in Antarctica. Roughly 85% more or less of the total amount of ice on the planet. Second that if the temperatures rise a little bit, it is going to carry more moisture which in Antarctica is going to be deposited over huge land mass that is larger than the size of the United States of America, by way of examples some level of ice I think that the mean is around 6000 feet deep, South Pole is more than that and some some places there in Antarctica it’s as much as 3 miles thick and that it takes hundred of years for that ice that is fallen in Antarctica to actually reach the coast line. Which means that if temperatures goes up a little bit because of this effect you are actually looking at more snow and ice being deposited on in Antarctica and water being taken from the oceans more than offsetting whatever melt there may be in Greenland or the Arctic. So what are your thoughts on that theory or argument that they were raising to us in Antarctica?

      This summary is not correct. The data clearly show that even with the amount of global warming that we have already experienced, that the global mean sea level has risen. The amount of snowfall over Antarctica is not enough to balance this effect of the seas rising, which itself is a function of seawater expanding as it heats up as well as the addition of meltwater from mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets (IPCC, AR5).

    4. including rising sea levels, ocean acidification, melting glaciers

      This is a correct statement and these effects are discussed in more detail and with more references in the last IPCC (AR5) report.

    5. alarming report recently about the great barrier reef, climate change is damaging our environment,

      This statement is correct and refers to the recurrent mass bleaching of corals documented in the Great Barrier Reef: Hughes, T. P. et al. (2017) Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature, 543(7645), 373-377.

    6. The existence of the ‘greenhouse effect’ was first proposed in the early 1800’s. By the late 1800’s scientists began to theorize that increases in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere could lead to global warming.

      This statement is correct. The history of our understanding of the Greenhouse effect as it developed during the 19th century is summarized in Mitchell, J. F. B. (1989), The “Greenhouse” effect and climate change, Rev. Geophys., 27(1), 115–139, doi:10.1029/RG027i001p00115.

    1. The most dramatic impacts may not be felt for 50 or 100 years.

      While the most dramatic effects may not be felt until 50 to 100 years from now, that does not mean that dramatic impacts will not occur before then.

    2. But as more data comes in, even the worst-case estimates may turn out to be too low: for example, researchers recently discovered that ice is melting more rapidly than expected from both Antarctica and Greenland, plus gained a better understanding of how melting ice sheets actually affect sea-level rise. “The unlikely scenarios are now, all of a sudden, becoming more probable than they once were thought to be,” says Sweet

      This is true, based on the research cited here. The dynamics of rapid ice sheet retreat remain uncertain which introduces uncertainty into the projections.

    3. enough credible projections have been done to put together a range of scenarios that researchers are confident about

      Many projections have been done, but they may very well underestimate the true expected range of scenarios.

    4. Can we definitely say it’s the ocean warming?” says Sweet, who has authored several sea-level rise studies. “No. But is it indicative of what we’d expect to see? Yes.

      It is not yet clear what is causing the recent uptick in the rate of sea level rise in this region over the past several years, which is not similarly recorded at tide gauges north of Cape Hatteras according to the NOAA tide gauge data. If, however, this quote refers to the long-term trend of sea-level rise in this region, then it is correct and consistent with the analysis of the IPCC AR5 (Church and Clark, (2013) Chapter 13, IPCC AR5).

    5. Sea level rise is global. But due to a variety of factors – including, for this part of the Atlantic coast, a likely weakening of the Gulf Stream, itself potentially a result of the melting of Greenland’s ice caps – south Floridians are feeling the effects more than many others.

      The hypothesis that (a) the Gulf stream has weakened over this time interval and (b) that it is the primary driver of sea level rise acceleration seen farther north along the U.S. Atlantic coast is still debated (see for example, Kopp (2013) Does the mid-Atlantic United States sea level acceleration hot spot reflect ocean dynamic variability? Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 3981-3985.)

    6. many of south Florida’s drainage systems and seawalls are no longer enough.

      This statement is true based on several different analyses. For example, in a study that quantified the reduction of flood control capabilities of coastal water control gravity structures owing to increased sea level rise, they found that “sea level change could negatively impact nearly half the coastal flow control structures in the coming decades, unless adaptive measures are implemented to mitigate such impacts.” Obeysekera, J., Irizarry, M., Park, J., Barnes, J., Dessalegne, T. (2011) Climate change and its implications for water resources management in south Florida, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25 (4), 495-516.

    7. The most frequently-used range of estimates puts the likely range between 15-25cm (6-10in) above 1992 levels by 2030, and 79-155cm (31-61in) by 2100.

      It is true that these are commonly used projections in this region. This statement refers to the Unified Sea Level Rise Projection that was produced by the Southeast Florida Regional Compact on Climate Change (October, 2015; found here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0ahUKEwi78Pf8xZDTAhWFbiYKHaprDVMQFgglMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F10%2F2015-Compact-Unified-Sea-Level-Rise-Projection.pdf&usg=AFQjCNG8EJ6kOv6QSgBKsbC0-RbIip3ZuQ&sig2=2lSW0DU3KzgkjuLa4lIMew).

  2. Sep 2016
    1. Federal scientists have documented a sharp jump in this nuisance flooding — often called “sunny-day flooding” — along both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast in recent years. The sea is now so near the brim in many places that they believe the problem is likely to worsen quickly. Shifts in the Pacific Ocean mean that the West Coast, partly spared over the past two decades, may be hit hard, too.

      This jump in nuisance flooding was documented, as cited, by Sweet and Park (2014) Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise, Earth's Future, 2(12), 579-600.

    2. These tidal floods are often just a foot or two deep,

      This is depth of flooding is accurate as stated and is shown in FIg. 2 of Sweet and Park (2014) From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise, Earth's Future, 2(12), 579-600.

    3. Many climate scientists, including Dr. Dutton, believe a rise of at least 15 or 20 feet has already become inevitable, over an unknown period.

      This is supported by the analysis of Dutton et al. (2015) Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349(6244), aaa4019, that indicates that the present ice sheets are out of equilibrium with the present climate. It is also supported by the last IPCC assessment, as noted by one of the other commentators.

    4. In the worst-case scenario, this research suggests, the rate of sea-level rise could reach a foot per decade by the 22nd century, about 10 times faster than today

      This statement is supported by the research that is cited here by Gillis.

    5. scientists determined that the sea level rose by something like 20 to 30 feet in that era,

      This is an accurate representation of the research by Kopp et al. (2009) Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage, Nature, 462, 863-867 as well as Dutton and Lambeck (2012) Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial, Science, 337(6091), 216-219.

    6. the sea may have risen 70 or more feet above the current level

      Although the maximum sea level for the Pliocene is still debated (see Dutton et al. (2015) Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349 (6244), aaa4019), this statement is supported by the following reference: Miller et al. (2012) High tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of global sea level for Antarctic deglaciation, Geology, 40(5), 407-410.

    7. , roughly 6,000 years old, developed during an unusually stable period for global sea levels.

      The last 6,000 years have been unusually stable for the period of time that we are able to constrain rates of sea-level change particularly well (at sub-millennial timescales): see, for example, Lambeck et al., 2014, Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, 111(43), 15296–15303.

    8. Because the land is sinking as the ocean rises, Norfolk and the metropolitan region surrounding it, known as Hampton Roads, are among the worst-hit parts of the United States.

      This statement about the land sinking in the region of Norfolk, leading to higher rates of sea level rise is correct, and is supported by plenty of research, including: Kopp et al. (2014) Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites, Earth's Future, 2(8), 383-406.

  3. Feb 2016
    1. Scientists say the recent climate agreement negotiated in Paris is not remotely ambitious enough to forestall a significant melting of Greenland and Antarctica, though if fully implemented, it may slow the pace somewhat.

      This is an accurate summary. To learn more about the eventual degree of melting in the future, see Clark et al (2016) Nature Climate Change (Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, currently available online).

    2. by almost 400 feet

      Though the sea level lowstand during the last ice age is typically referred to as -120 m, most studies now cite a larger number, in the range of -130-135 m (>400 feet). See Austermann et al. (2013) Nature Geoscience, Barbados-based estimate of ice volume at Last Glacial Maximum affected by subducted plate; Lambeck et al. (2014) PNAS, Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene; and the supplement of Dutton et al. (2015) Science.

    3. who has won respect from his colleagues by bringing elaborate statistical techniques to bear on longstanding problems,

      This is an accurate and eloquent way of explaining Kopp's contribution to this field of study.

    4. One of the authors of the new paper, Dr. Rahmstorf, had previously published estimates suggesting the sea could rise as much as five or six feet by 2100.

      This is an accurate representation of the previous and current research. It might have been nice to also note here that because the models he used probably don't fully account for the rate of mass loss of ice from the polar ice sheets that the 3-4 feet estimate in the current research and in the IPCC may well underestimate the eventual magnitude of global mean sea-level rise by 2100.

    5. roughly three-quarters of the tidal flood days now occurring in towns along the East Coast would not be happening in the absence of the rise in the sea level caused by human emissions.

      This is an important way to think about the implications of the research on how this sea-level rise that is driven by human emissions is affecting coastal communities.

    6. at least

      This is an important and appropriately used qualifier. It may be the fastest rate in comparison to a much longer time span, we just don't have enough highly-resolved sea level reconstructions farther back in time to make the comparison.

    7. The worsening of tidal flooding in American coastal communities is largely a consequence of greenhouse gases from human activity, and the problem will grow far worse in coming decades, scientists reported Monday.

      The opening sentence is an accurate summary of the research that was published by Kopp et al. in PNAS. In fact, if anything, it is somewhat of an understatement given that the worsening of tidal flooding may be ENTIRELY due to the influence of greenhouse gases from human activity. This is based on the statement in the published research by Kopp et al (PNAS) that sea level in the 20th century may have "very likely risen by between -3 cm and +7 cm ", which is a way of saying that it may have fallen by 3 cm or risen by up to 7 cm over that time frame in the absence of anthropogenically-induced global warming.

    8. one of two related studies released on Monday

      To be clear, the "study" referred to in this sentence is not peer-reviewed literature, but a report that analyzes the significance of the results presented in the "other" study that was published by Kopp et al. in PNAS. This distinction appears below in the article, but is not clear in this paragraph, which directly follows a reference to "new research" in the preceding paragraph.