inflation, which recently hit its fastest pace in nearly four decades.

the rapid spread of the Omicron variant threatens to dent consumer spending and exacerbate labor and supply-chain shortages as workers call out sick.

forecast for growth to 3.3% for the current year as a whole, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product

their expectation for growth in the first quarter by more than a percentage point, to a 3% annual rate from their forecast of 4.2% in the October survey.

consumers grapple with high inflation and businesses juggle labor and production disruptions.

The outlook for economic growth in the first quarter and 2022 is darkening

Consumer spending accounts for 69% of U.S. gross domestic product.

More than half of economists expect supply-chain disruptions to persist at least until the second half of this year, with a third expecting them to continue until 2023 or later.

Asia zero-covid policy is a major constraint while U.S. inventory rebuilding will add to the strains—that means demand could continue outstripping available supply for a considerable time to come,”

On top of rising prices, consumers, whose spending accounts for 69% of GDP,  face continued uncertainty about the Covid-19 pandemic and the end of government support like the monthly child tax credit that provided a financial cushion for millions of households.

Higher inflation and low unemployment mean economists expect the Fed to start increasing borrowing costs soon. Nearly two-thirds expect the Fed to raise rates at its March 15-16 policy meeting and keep raising them over the course of the year. Over half of forecasters expect three rate increases this year, while nearly a third expect more than three.

The largest risk is that the Fed could panic and overshoot

This is the first time the Fed has chased inflation in decades

consumer prices rose 7% in December from the same month a year earlier, up from 6.8% in November. That was the fastest since 1982 and the third-straight month it exceeded 6%.

While the labor market is enjoying a robust recovery, economists say the central bank is now in danger of not raising interest rates fast enough to keep up with rapidly rising prices. Inflation, largely quiescent since the 2007-2009 recession, has picked up sharply since last spring as rising demand collided with Covid-19-related bottlenecks.

Spiraling inflation could force the central bank to aggressively raise short-term interest rates, risking a recession.

By the end of 2022, wage inflation is expected to cool slightly to a 4.5% year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings. Still, economists expect workers to reap annual wage increases of roughly 4% for the best part of the next two years.

The current pandemic-related shortage of workers is expected to keep wages rising at an intense clip over the next few months, as employers offer higher pay packets to retain and hire staff. Economists expect average hourly earnings to be up 4.9% from a year earlier in June; they rose 4.7% in December.

1063 wasn’t to be enshrined as the all-time biggest number

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