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- Oct 2019
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understandinguncertainty.org understandinguncertainty.org
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probability compounds
compound probability = 1 - (1 - annual probability of excedence)^n where:
- annual probability = 0.01
- n = exposure period = 10 years
by other hand Mean Recurrence Interval - MRI = Return Period = 1 / annual probability of exceedence, but only if MRI >= 10 years, if not then:
annual probability of excedence = 1-e(-1/MRI)
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