Supplementary
we'll have to add the sensitivity analysis
Supplementary
we'll have to add the sensitivity analysis
Figure
should these also be broken into single and repeat flooder panels?
estimating
a way to estimate?
more severe flood histories
we don't take into account severity. same comment as using the word intensity. You could have had a parcel that got carpet-wetting 5 times vs one that got severe damage once or even twice and these would not be comparable motivators to apply for funding.
I actually wonder if this is a caveat we should point out somewhere earlier in the paper. That in this study flood exposure DOES NOT consider flood severity and that many of our once-flooded properties could have experienced very minor flooding.
flood-exposure intensity
not sure i like using the word intensity. it came up once before and i flagged it there, too. intensity feels like a measure of depth or velocity and not just exposure. I think exposure count is sufficient context here.
repeatedly flooded parcels
parcels that flooded two or more times (i.e., repeatedly flooded parcels)
separately for
for both (instead of separately)
five
four?
the analyzed disaster declarations
were these centered around the 2010s? We don't really provide much context for when the 18 declarations were.
joined
obtained at and joined to the parcels?
his within-neighborhood percentile lets us test whether selection toward lower-value properties occurs within neighborhoods or primarily reflects flow toward lower-value neighborhoods
revisit this sentence. I'm not sure about the word "flow"
attribute
label every parcel by its?
attribute feels like a weird word choice
References
Who do we need to include in acknowledgements? Helen since she worked on the mit/app assignments? NC DPS for providing the data?
We should also think about funding acknowledgements. DHS CRC and NOAA RISA. Anything else?
canned statement for NOAA:
This study was supported in part by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program [NA21OAR4310312]. NOAA had no role in the design or conduct of the study; data analysis or interpretation; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
The records identify the local sub-applicant (county or municipality) and the addresses associated with each project.
A bunch of work went into geolocating these and tying them to parcels. Is that part of this paper or a different one?
over the study period
maybe we should be more explicit about the date range of the apps and mitigations and the PDDs they likely represent?
themselves
remove?
HMGP, the largest of the three, becomes available only after a presidential disaster declaration (PDD), which is issued event-by-event and county-by-county. We therefore define a parcel as eligible for federal mitigation funding if it was inundated during an event for which the parcel’s county received a PDD.
are we removing this stage?
flooding
insert residential?
cumulative flood-exposure intensity
?
majority
add fraction in parenthesis? Its like 89% or something
generated by the random-forest model of Garcia et al. (2025)
generated by Garcia et al. (2025) using a random-forest model trained on...
Each parcel is linked to property-level attributes (land use code, structure characteristics, assessor value) drawn from the CoreLogic property database. Where parcel records and CoreLogic records share a common identifier we match directly; the remaining parcels are matched spatially, with address-string similarity used to break ties when more than one CoreLogic record is closest. We retain 1–4 family residential parcels and exclude commercial, industrial, agricultural, and most government-owned land uses. A small number of residential parcels are recorded in CoreLogic as currently vacant or government-owned.
Do we need to say anything here about how stacked parcels are handled.
The last highlighted sentence about " a small number of residential parcels are recorded..." how were they identified as residential? because they have a mitigation or application on them or because NC OneMap had them labeled as residential?
North Carolina OneMap database
I assume we need to include links or citations for each of these that is publicly available.
Our analysis covers the eastern portion of North Carolina, defined hydrologically as the entirety of the Neuse–Pamlico and Cape Fear watersheds together with the portions of the Pee Dee and Chowan–Roanoke watersheds that drain through the state. This domain spans 78 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and contains the bulk of the state’s repetitive flood activity over the study period.
I wonder if we should just make the statement about study area in the previous section when it is first introduced and stick to unit of analysis for this section
five
here we are keeping all 5. we may need to figure out how to say in the results that we only plot 4/5
for eastern North Carolina
across XX counties in Eastern North Carolina <-- I think we should be more explicit because it looks like we also limited ourselves to complete counties from Helena's flood database (which was watershed boundaries). Just double check.
address existing demand, much of which originates from marginalized populations
I feel like this might be worth expanding on and I don't know if we want to use the word marginalized (with a race implication). Maybe here the wealth piece would be more noteworthy given that the funding may have a relatively larger benefit to the applying households than the (non-applying) wealthier households who might be able to afford some level of mitigation themselves, demonstrating the importance of these programs.
Do we want to put in any current context about the FEMA review panel and on-going efforts to modernize/reform FEMA? Might make the piece more timely.
I also wonder if its worth noting that there are other kinds of mitigations that flow to communities (non-household) that we don't consider but might have household-level risk reduction benefits. In a comprehensive flood risk reduction/resilience portfolio, these might also be worth taking into consideration in future work.
hese results indicate substantial potential to improve the rate of applications from flood-prone households.
but would likely have little impact on the demographics of mitigations that are funded (since applications at the neighborhood level would increase but in-neighborhood differences in funding are negligible) <--- is this true? do i read this correctly. this goes back to my question earlier about "to what end"
continue along the pipeline
reach subsequent stages (in the pipeline)
so we do not distinguish between floods that occur before or after a property is funded for mitigation
would this potentially lead to an over count of repetitively flooded properties given that we don't consider if a property was mitigated before a subsequent flood occurred? or is no longer exposed (e.g., were it to have been elevated). Does this need to be articulated?
While
Prior to this do we want to have any discussion about where we think think these results might differ/whether they can be extrapolated to other places? We've had a lot of conversation about New Jersey (and matching) and I also wonder about Texas. Are there any maps in the other national scale studies that might suggest we would find something different in another state? a la caveats?
value
do we have a citation for this statement?
home
property or applicant
th
th
have larger returns
what kind of returns are we referring to here? If we have more applications, our award rates might go down. What kind of returns are we hoping for? Just pointing that out here as vague.
who do not enter
never entered? or do not appear in?
.
Perhaps add in... While application rates are higher for repetitively flooded properties, they are still low (5.6%). Success rates among both single-flooded and repetitive-flooded properties are similar (~60%).
themselves
delete?
lower shares of non-Hispanic White residents and correspondingly higher shares of Black residents than block groups at preceding pipeline stages (Figure 4).
Do we need to test whether these are statistically significant shifts?
Mitigation
This feels like a discussion sentence rather than a result.
Panel B re-ranks each property against the other parcels in its own block group: early-stage properties sit near the th–th percentile of their immediate neighborhood, while applying and funded properties land at the th and th percentiles respectively. Whether compared to the broader study area or within their own block groups, applying and funded properties are more affordable than flooded properties — but Panel B indicates they are relatively typical for their own neighborhoods rather than the cheapest houses on the block.
Revisit phrasing.
th
th
th–th
?
sit
word choice: reside? are within?
The number of properties surviving each pipeline stage drops substantially, and the property-value composition shifts as well (Figure 3).
I'd make this sentence just about the property value comparison and not the number of surviving properties since that was related to Fig 2.
Fig
sometimes nice to include a key takeaway from the figure at the start of the caption
.
what about the results for the repeat-flooders. We also considered whether the outcomes were different for repetitively flooded properties. Approximately 40%? of flooded properties, flooded more than once. Of these, X% were in communities that had at least one application, X% applied and X% were funded, a rate nearly double that of properties that had only flooded once... (Or something along these lines)
five
four
structural driver
We've also heard that matching funds are a big piece here, such that wealthier homes are more likely to be able to provide the match to elevate (in places where local/state government does not), like new jersey. I wonder if there are any citations we could use to support the point. miyuki?
and more troubling pattern
should we try to avoid opinion? remove "and more troubling"
largest risk mitigation programs
do we need to highlight examples of these programs (perhaps pulling the sentence out of the abstract and putting it here)
US Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Environmental Protection Agency also play important roles
HUD?
flooded, eligible, in an applying community, applied, and funded
are we still including all 5 perhaps in supplement? I think your later figures only have 4.
we
how about... past researchers have observed only who receives funding, not who is eligible or who applies.
since "we" can actually see these things :)
100-year floodplain
1% flood hazard areas
using a novel dataset
We should use language that highlights that we created this dataset (and perhaps how) rather than just that we are using it. A large part of the work was the creation of a novel dataset.
Perhaps we should also report the absolute numbers in these datasets. 90,000 flooded properties, X000 applications resulting in x000 buyouts and x000 elevations
d. Hom
We see slightly higher success rates for repeat flooders?
As damages from floods, fires, and other climate extremes mount, public investments in risk reduction have also grown. In the US, FEMA made over $1.6 billion available through its two main competitive pre-disaster mitigation programs — Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) — for FY2024, and demand for such funds regularly exceeds available funding. Evidence suggests that in this competitive landscape for funding, urban and whiter communities have fared better at obtaining funding but are often spending it on more disadvantaged neighborhoods within them. However, the reasons for this trend are unclear: complexities in the application process, cost-benefit analysis requirements, and flood damage may all play a role in driving the uneven funding patterns.
This is a pretty long lead in for an abstract.