Success in AMM conservation over the near- and mid-term will require engagement of regional governments and indigenous organizations that influence the direct interface between humans and AMMs.
Local partnerships are crucial for effective near-term conservation.
AMMs range across international borders, serve as biological indicators, occupy areas rich in natural resources, are important for traditional subsistence and ecosystem health, and have become icons of the consequences of climate change.
AMMs symbolize climate impacts globally and culturally.
Agencies tasked with recovery planning under the ESA (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA) do not have the authority to regulate greenhouse gases
Legal limitations restrict addressing the root cause of habitat loss.
Until recently ESA listings were largely made on the basis of immediate or shorter term anthropogenic threats that could be mitigated by regulatory or other action
Conservation law is now relying on future climate projections.
little or no capacity to contain an oil spill in the sea ice and little is known about the impacts of dispersants on Arctic biota or AMMs.
Highlights the vulnerability of Arctic ecosystems to oil development.
Measuring trend, which is an important indicator of population status, requires abundance data over many years or a demographic analysis of vital rates (e.g., reproduction and survival), which are available for relatively few populations
Long-term trend data are lacking for most AMMs.
Some bowhead whale subpopulations have also shown positive population growth concurrent with regional sea ice loss.
Not all AMMs decline immediately, some benefit temporarily.
Chukchi Sea and southern Beaufort Sea polar bears live in regions with similar rates of sea ice loss
Regional productivity differences lead to contrasting population outcomes.
Timing of sea ice breakup is linked to accessibility of seasonal foraging habitats and the spring primary production bloom that ultimately influences feeding for all AMMs
Climate change alters ecological interactions and competition.
The correlation we found between spring and fall transition dates (Table 2) is a manifestation of the ice-albedo feedback, in which extra heat absorbed by the ocean during an early spring must be released into the atmosphere in the fall before sea ice can begin to form.
Explains that earlier melt accelerates further warming and delays refreezing.
We found significant trends in the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance for 1979-2013, ranging from 5 to 17 days/decade
Sea ice seasons are shifting significantly across nearly all Arctic regions.
management and conservation of AMMs is intertwined with their use as a renewable resource.
Emphasizes dual conservation, a subsistence relationship.
78% are legally harvested for subsistence
Shows the strong reliance of Arctic communities on AMMs.
recovery from previous overexploitation could mask reductions in carrying capacity associated with habitat loss.
Population growth may hide early climate-driven declines.
Assessing status and trends of marine mammal populations in the Arctic is difficult because wide distributions and cryptic behavior are compounded by the logistical challenges of surveying in remote marine areas.
Monitoring AMMs is challenging due to their remote range and elusive behavior.
responses to climate change are likely to vary in time and space, as evidenced by delayed or even positive responses to sea ice loss for some AMMs
Highlights that AMM responses differ by species and region, not uniformly negative.
Climate change has had widespread ecological impacts on the Arctic
Notes that Arctic climate impacts are severe but understudied compared to other biomes.
We found that AMMs are taken for subsistence in all Arctic nations except Norway
Emphasizes the cultural dependence on these species; conservation must account for Indigenous subsistence needs.
Evaluation of the abundance and trend of AMMs is complicated by unknown subpopulation structure or partial surveys of seasonal aggregations.
Highlights that incomplete data and inconsistent survey methods make it hard to understand how Arctic marine mammals are doing, reflects major scientific uncertainty.
Current trends were available for 10 subpopulations, although several of these were derived from projection models with untested assumptions
Even available trend estimates may be uncertain due to reliance on unvalidated models.
knowledge of abundance consisted of a single point estimate with large uncertainty or an estimate based on expert opinion without formal assessment of uncertainty or bias.
Many population estimates lack rigorous data and carry high uncertainty.
The highest species richness of AMMs was in the Atlantic regions of Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea; the lowest species richness was in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Beaufort Sea
Species richness varies strongly by region, with the Atlantic sector most diverse.
Based on our findings, we make recommendations for AMM conservation relative to data gaps, sea ice forecasts, anthropogenic activities, and the complex social, economic, and political context of a rapidly warming Arctic.
Proposals are backed up by experimental findings on species, human effects, and sea ice.
unprecedented changes in AMM habitats are inevitable.
Admit that changes are impossible to completely avoid.
Even if greenhouse gases, the primary driver of climate change, are limited immediately, sea ice loss is likely to continue for several decades
Even if GHG emissions are reduced, global warming will still cause sea ice loss. This means that GHG emissions reductions will not help emperor penguins indefinitely.
maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.
AMM conservation methods proposed by Laidre et al.
The economic imperative to fish is now risking much,
Fishing pressure threatens ecosystems and CCAMLR’s political cohesion.
A transparent indicator of how well CCAMLR rebuilds trust and transparency and how well it adheres to the intended interpretation of Article II [53], will be how it now implements the revised management framework for the krill fishery.
Success on krill management will show whether CCAMLR can rebuild trust.
If CCAMLR will not, or cannot act, it will continue to fragment, leaving the sovereign states at the sub-Antarctic islands to maintain precautionary management within the northern parts of the Convention Area.
Breakdown of consensus could lead to unregulated or conflicting fishing actions.
If CCAMLR takes another pathway and cannot work collaboratively, then it is inevitable that some Members will continue to operate unilaterally, or reject credible science where others endorse the objective evidence
Breakdown of consensus could lead to unregulated or conflicting fishing actions.
Other, larger-scale areas where there are currently no economic interests, and where monitoring and research are therefore of a lower priority should be set aside as closed no-take areas.
Proposes proactively designating protected zones before industry expands.
climate change remains inescapable and could lead to increased ecological pressures in areas with existing fisheries
Future warming will intensify ecosystem stress, especially in fished areas.
Agreeing how to resolve what constitutes the ‘best available science’, would also facilitate resolution of krill fishery expansion.
Defining “best science” is essential for progress on krill and toothfish management.
Some Members have a particular responsibility to work together to find a rapid solution to existing disagreements
Key Parties must lead conflict resolution, especially regarding science disputes.
CCAMLR has an opportunity to return to its original values and purpose.
The organization must choose between renewed cooperation or fragmentation.
the management authority for the Southern Ocean is clearly facing an existential crisis,
CCAMLR must adapt quickly or risk failing its conservation mandate.
Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest ever minimum extent based on the 44-year satellite record,
Record-low sea ice highlights the urgency of climate impacts on the region.
CCAMLR Contracting Parties currently represent a little under 61% of the global human population.
Emphasizes CCAMLR’s global significance for marine conservation.
unlikely to be advantageous to focus on remote, rarely visited locations where there are logistical challenges of access.
Research should prioritize accessible areas where consistent data can be collected.
identify leadership groups,
Creating specialized working groups could improve climate planning.
it must engage seriously in climate resilient management strategies and a climate change work programme
CCAMLR must adopt climate-focused management to meet its obligations.
no-take climate change reference areas should be part of such deliberations.
Protected areas are needed to track climate effects without fishing pressure.
decision-makers must consider climate change resilience, before the krill fishery is allowed to expand
Krill fishing shouldn’t expand until climate impacts are better understood.
understanding of these changes is not simple as both penguin and krill population changes may also be related in part to a separate, but common factor, the recovery of baleen whales
Whale rebound also alters krill and penguin trends, complicating analysis.
there will be climate change winners and climate change losers
Not all species will respond the same; some decline while others expand.
many shorter than 30 years.
Short datasets limit accuracy in detecting long-term climate trends.
Yet our ability to understand how species, communities and ecosystems might change, is still rudimentary.
Scientists lack long-term data, making it hard to predict climate-driven changes.
Climate change impacts are projected to affect habitats and species, including species of commercial interest, across many areas of the Southern Ocean
Climate change threatens both ecosystems and commercially important species in the Southern Ocean.
Scientific evidence indicates that effective protection of at least 30% of the global ocean will help to reverse adverse ecological impacts;
Strong scientific consensus links 30% protection to ecosystem recovery and climate resilience.
other areas remain understudied, and of low economic interest (e.g. the South Sandwich Islands in Subarea 48.4 - one of the least disturbed parts of the Convention
Data-poor, low-interest regions are ideal candidates for precautionary protection.
Antarctic Peninsula (Subarea 48.1) and the South Orkney Islands (Subarea 48.2) are two such intensely exploited regions with little specific protection.
High-impact regions urgently need MPAs before krill catch limits are increased.
Those Members opposed to MPAs are again shifting the burden of proof by requiring threats be identified before protection is agreed, something contrary to Article II (see [54]).
Demanding proof of harm contradicts CCAMLR’s legal precautionary mandate.
Natural variability, trends in predator, or prey populations
High ecological uncertainty strengthens the argument for MPAs and strict safeguards.
Progress towards the intended comprehensive network has effectively slowed, even though other proposals have been developed and discussed by the Scientific Committee and Commission, but not yet agreed.
Despite early momentum, CCAMLR’s MPA progress has stalled due to political disagreement.
The South Orkney Islands Southern Shelf MPA was subsequently established in 2009 as the first MPA to be designated by CCAMLR
This MPA set a global precedent for protection in areas beyond national jurisdiction.
CCAMLR agreed the need to make rapid progress
CCAMLR recognized early that MPAs were essential for biodiversity protection and ecosystem-based management.
Maintaining the precautionary principle, whilst allowing an orderly expansion of the fishery with increased catches
Safeguards include monitoring, biodiversity protection, spatial management, and adaptation to environmental change.
Building formal international collaborative monitoring programmes that share costs and infrastructure, and which have the same shared vision now seem the only feasible way forward.
Multinational cooperation is necessary to ensure adequate data collection and ecosystem management.
Autonomous monitoring can help
Technological solutions can help, but need significant resources before fishery expansion occurs.
ecological baselines for the Antarctic Peninsula region are already shifting
Rapid climate-driven changes complicate management decisions and require updated monitoring.
some work remains as the Scientific Committee failed to reach consensus on the new catch limits
Increased catch proposals face political and scientific uncertainties; consensus is required to avoid ecosystem risk.
pilot project analyses now provide a scientifically based management framework for the Antarctic Peninsula
Pilot studies demonstrate the feasibility of spatially and temporally distributed precautionary catch limits.
development of three elements:
Scientific, evidence-based components are needed to guide precautionary spatial and temporal catch allocation.
Adequate monitoring is therefore required to detect ecological impacts from fishing at the earliest opportunity.
Monitoring is essential to identify negative effects of fishing before they become severe.
CCAMLR recognized that harvesting up to this precautionary limit could generate ecosystem impact
Even current precautionary limits can harm predators if catch distribution is poorly managed.
Deciding upon what constitutes an adequate range of safeguards requires collective decision-making, particularly given ongoing changes in the ecosystem
Consensus is necessary to implement precautionary measures and ensure ecosystem resilience in a changing environment.
Members tend to find resolution when focusing on fisheries management
Disagreements are more common for broader conservation mandates than for fisheries, highlighting a gap in CCAMLR’s governance.
Continued development of the revised management framework for the krill fishery critically relies upon Members embracing the precautionary approach.
Effective krill management depends on adopting precautionary measures before catches increase.
Undermining the precautionary principle in this way challenges the very bedrock of CCAMLR.
Delays or disputes over science weaken CCAMLR’s core ecosystem-based management approach.
The true cost of sustainable fisheries management requires considerable investment in ecological research and monitorin
Sustainable management is expensive; relies on both governments and industry contributions.
Significant coalitions and collaborations do exist amongst
Political disagreements can impede scientific decision-making and slow conservation actions.
innovations from different Members have previously helped advance conservation
Collaboration and shared strategies drive progress in ecosystem management.
Implementation of actions to build climate resilience in management
Emphasizes adapting management to ecological change to prevent unintended impacts on krill-dependent species.
Resolution of how fisheries for Antarctic krill,
Highlights the balance between sustainable fishing expansion and ecosystem protection.
the Antarctic Treaty, established during the Cold War, asserts that Antarctica shall be used for peaceful purposes only
Reminds that cooperation and science are foundational principles of the Antarctic Treaty.
era of rapid environmental change
Connects governance challenges with accelerating ecological threats.
precautionary krill management framework is fundamental to CCAMLR.
Reinforces that expansion of krill fishing can’t ignore broader ecosystem impacts.
erosion in the standards, norms and practices of collaborative decision-making.
Warns that cooperation is weakening, threatening the effectiveness of the Convention.
conflicts have arisen within CCAMLR that have the potential to delay
Political disagreements slowing or blocking conservation action.
Increased collaboration
Describes how collaboration among countries strengthens conservation outcomes.
CCAMLR has previously been commended as world leading in addressing such issues as seabird protection
Shows CCAMLR’s history of successful, science-based conservation leadership.
CCAMLR has generally only allowed fisheries to operate where sufficient data exist.
Fishing is restricted without strong scientific evidence.
Antarctic krill is one of the few remaining under-exploited sources of marine protein left in the world ocean
Explains why krill is economically important and heavily targeted for future food resources.
The Convention is an integral part of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS)
CCAMLR is not just a fisheries body but part of a larger environmental governance framework.
unregulated increases in catches of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean could adversely impact Antarctic marine ecosystems,
Krill overfishing threatens predators and ecosystem stability.
Large-scale remote areas with little economic interest should be set aside as closed areas
These areas lack adequate assessment. Keeping them closed prevents irreversible damage, while CCAMLR works toward solutions.
integrated programme could help CCAMLR adapt.
Coordinated, integrated management programs would improve long-term adaptive governance.
newly proposed krill catch limits
Human pressure in the region is currently low, but proposed catch increases would significantly raise impact on wildlife and ecosystems.
Much work has already been undertaken to allow catches to increase, but more is needed, including ensuring that, as yet untested, management procedures work as intended.
Major management procedures remain untested, meaning expanding catches now could harm ecosystems.
The best available science historically informed decisions, but policy objectives are increasingly coming to the fore.
Scientific evidence is becoming secondary to national policy priorities. This shift undermines evidence-based fisheries management and increases risk of unsustainable decisions.
Policy differences amongst CCAMLR Members are increasingly affecting decision-making with regards to management of Southern Ocean fisheries.
This political disagreement directly obstructs coordinated management of Southern Ocean fisheries.
do not have bycatch of species listed as ‘vulnerable’ or worse on the IUCN Redlist of Threatened Species.
Making sure threatened species are not effected by bycatch.
Conservation organizations are now stepping in to rescue orphaned chicks, which are then hand-reared and released back into the wild when they reach fledgling age.
This conservation method effectively boosts wild populations by rescuing chicks affected by heatwaves and food shortages.
artificial nest boxes and burrows that provide shelter from hot and cold and protection from predators is one possible solution
Artificial shelters could help offset lost habitat, offering shade and protection from predators, a key to improving chick survival.
Improving Fishing Practices
Collaboration with fishers provides a practical solution to reduce accidental penguin deaths from nets.
Over half the world’s penguin species are in grave danger of going extinct unless we take action now.
Highlights the urgency, climate change and human interference have pushed penguins toward a mass extinction risk.
Guano harvesting is now banned globally
Solution that stopped further effects on penguins but still has impacts that can be felt today.
Degradation/Loss of Breeding Habitat
Habitat degradation increases heat stress and predation risk.
severely impact the survival of penguins that depend on this resource.
Overfishing creates food shortages, reducing chick survival and endangering entire colonies.
Competition with humans for dwindling fish stocks can affect survival
Human fishing removes key food such as sardines, anchovies, and krill.
Entanglement in fishing gear, particular fishing nets, has significant impact on penguins.
Bycatch is a massive human-caused problem. Penguins drown because they cannot escape fishing nets.
typically comprising krill, squid and small fish
Food sources that are becoming scarce due to overfishing and other factors.
find a predictable source of food
Climate change and human activity disrupt the predictability of marine food sources, creating a major survival challenge.
although the species may adapt in part, it is uncertain whether this is a long‐term solution as birds would still be subject to the consequences of an altered food web
Even if emperor penguins can adapt to climate change, without enough resources, they still won't be able to survive successfully.
a probable impact of sea ice loss will be on Antarctic trophic food web structure, including on emperor penguin prey.
Other factors like food availability will also impact emperor penguins.
The species has existed over geological time, surviving previous glacial and interglacial periods probably by migrating to suitable habitat as conditions change
Emperor penguins have been able to adapt by themselves for a long period of time, mostly by relocating.
FIGURE 4.
Predicted population sizes of emperor penguins for each climate scenario.
resulting in 180 scenarios (5 climate scenarios × 4 extreme event scenarios × 9 dispersal scenarios) and 360,000 simulated population trajectories.
Very wide range and large amount of possible scenarios accounted for.
four scenarios of extreme environmental pertations
Four scenarios are presented, each one resulting in catastrophic result for emperor penguins.
FIGURE 3.
Figure 3 shows the sea ice concentration anomalies for each climate scenario.
FIGURE 2.
Figure 2 shows some of the scenarios caused by global warming, including the Paris Agreement.
integrates recent published knowledge
They use results of past work, combined with new discoveries to model their ideas.
relocation of colonies onto icebergs or ice shelves
Some emperor penguins have already starting to adapt themselves, attempting to relocate.
Sea ice concentration also influences the presence and abundance of some emperor penguin prey species
The decrease in sea ice has also affected other species connected to penguins, such as krill, a vital food source for emperor penguins.
Not listed
Even though emperor penguins have been on the list under ESA since 2008, they are still not considered threatened. These agencies are trying to change that so that the species can gain more protection.
use of science‐based, enforceable tools to reduce climate threats and increase resilience, including habitat protection and recovery planning by Federal agencies to avoid jeopardizing listed species or adversely modifying their critical habitat, and a prohibition on killing or harming listed species
Explanation of what the ESA does to help threatened species.
Paris Agreement
Paris Agreement as a contextual factor that is still affective today on GHG emissions globally.
If the world would take aggressive actions to reduce greenhouse gases emission now and the Paris Agreement objectives are met, declines will be much less severe and the species will persist longer.
What the authors believe would help emperor penguins the most right now.
We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.
Main point of article.
different GHG emission scenarios using a climate‐dependent meta‐population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies.
Experiments conducted to test different GHG emission scenarios.
considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act
One possible solution being tried is protecting emperor penguins under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA).
Additional Resources
Additional resources that I will look into as I do more research for my AP.
designate the world’s largest marine reserve in Antarctica’s Southern Ocean.
Main goal of proposal.
Countries have tried four times to agree on the fate of Antarctic waters and each time have failed to reach consensus.
Previous attempts that have failed.
create two large marine reserves in the Ross Sea and the waters off East Antarctica.
Potential solution to provide habitats for emperor penguins.
two dozen countries and the European Union will decide the fate of some of the most important penguin habitat on Earth
Previous attempt in 2015 to help protect emperor penguins.
CCAMLR
Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources.
Related reading
Additional readings provided for more information on protecting emperor penguins and why they need the protection.
We encourage Treaty parties to: Protect the emperor penguin through domestic law, Designate the emperor penguin a Specially Protected Species, Urgently implement a Specially Protected Species Action Plan, and Establish a representative network of Marine Protected Areas across the Southern Ocean.
Proposals the ASOC has presented to try and protect emperor penguins.
How Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) help penguins thrive.
MPA information given on page.
urge decision makers to protect the emperor penguin.
ASOC is still trying to accomplish their goal, and persuade higher-ups to agree to their proposal.
It was blocked by a single nation.
The attempt failed because of the rejection of a single nation.
In 2022, Antarctic Treaty nations considered a proposal to designate the emperor penguin as a Specially Protected Species within the Antarctic Treaty System.
Proposal for a way to protect emperor penguins.
emperor penguin chicks have been lost due to warming oceans and reduced sea ice cover.
With global warming getting worse over the past decade, emperor penguin chicks have not been able to survive.
breed, feed and raise their chicks on sea ice,
Some reasons why emperor penguins rely on sea ice.
preserve vital sea ice habitats
One thing the ASOC mentions that emperor penguins need is their sea ice habitats.
ASOC - Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition ASOC is an advocacy group that focuses on the climate change impacts in Antarctica.
Stand up for that, and you will find that you are not alone.
Seaman is doing her best to raise awareness on the issues of climate change, just like the authors of all our previous readings.
She hopes the news will wake people up.
Just like Wallace-Wells, Seaman hopes that people will realize how bad and just how fast climate change is moving.
Tourists have a close encounter with Adélie penguins in the Antarctic Sound.
It looks like this specific part of Antarctica has more ice, most likely not as affected by global warming. This area most likely has a higher survival rate of penguins as well.
Adélie penguins try to beat the heat on Paulet Island.
We can see from the photo that there is barely any ice on the ground, and we can infer from that, that the sea water is most likely not that cold either.
“They were looking for any little patch of snow or ice to lay on.”
So much of the snow and ice have melted because of global warming, eliminating habitats for these arctic animals.
baby Adélie penguin with its tongue sticking out to cool off.
As cute as this sounds, penguins having to stick their tongue out to cool off sounds very saddening. I searched up a photo of this, and though it was not an Adélie penguin, the penguin looked very exhausted because of the heat.
Higher temperatures can also be difficult for cold-weather penguins, especially chicks, Seaman said.
Cold-weather species are not used to higher temperatures, so the effect on them will be more significant. Chicks are especially more vulnerable, and most of the recent issues have to do with chicks not being able to survive because of the effects climate change have caused.
So it has this incredible chain effect.
In nature, the chain effect with prey and predators is very important. When one species is affected, so are the rest.
They believe climate change is largely to blame, saying less sea ice and warmer oceans have reduced the krill that many of the penguins rely on for food.
Climate change is a big factor when it comes to the decline of the penguin population. Less sea ice and warmer temperatures affect penguin's diets, breeding, and habitat.
An Adélie penguin jumps over water at Brown Bluff on the Antarctic peninsula.
Different species of animals are having to adapt because of the loss of sea ice caused by global warming.
Tourists kayak near icebergs off the coast of Cuverville Island.
From the photo, it looks like there's barely any sea ice left in this particular region. There should be more considering it's the coast of an island in Antarctica.
Scientists say the planet is warming faster than previously thought and that the window is rapidly closing to cut our reliance on fossil fuels and avoid catastrophic outcomes.
We know this from the previous readings we did in class, climate change is real and it's happening fast.
nearly 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in the last 50 years.
The Antarctic peninsula is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, in the past 50 years, the temperatures have risen nearly 3 degrees, raising sea levels and in turn threatening animals who rely on that environment to survive.
Last year, Antarctica registered a record-high temperature of 18.3 degrees Celsius, or nearly 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
I think this temperature in Antarctica is mind blowing. We experience this temperature even here in California, where it's considered to be warmer and more tropical.
The white landscape isn’t so white anymore.
This is most likely one of the most significant effects of climate change on Antarctica.
And now it's just mud and rocks
Seaman mentions that there are places in the Antarctic where she's never seen the ground before, as there had always been snow cover. However, now the snow is gone and it's just mud and rocks.
which often turns the snow pink and sometimes green.
Another effect of climate change can be heard hear, snow algae turns the snow pink and sometimes green. This occurrence is not unusual, but what's unusual is that fact that the algae blooming is showing up earlier than usual.
Fragments of ice called bergy bits can make it difficult for people to travel on and off the coastline.
We can see from the photo that fragments of ice have formed in the sea, making it difficult for both humans and animals to move on and off the coastline.
She’s seen it with her own eyes.
The photographer, Seaman, has seen climate change affect the earth with her own eyes. She's been visiting Antarctica and she has been able to observe a noticeable change in just the past few years.
Antarctica is changing. The impact could be catastrophic
Almond, Kyle. “Antarctica is changing. The impact could be catastrophic.” CNN, 13 August 2021, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/08/weather/antarctica-climate-change- cnnphotos/. Accessed 20 October 2025.