We look carefully and analytically at history
"Those who do not learn their history are doomed to repeat it."
8 Matching Annotations
- Sep 2021
-
www.foresightguide.com www.foresightguide.com
-
-
quantitative and qualitative approaches
Excellent statement considering academia and contemporary public administration often requires "evidence based solutions." It's not that qualitative is not considered evidence based, but in community development can sometimes be counter to quantitative evidence. The nation's debate on mask's effectiveness to COVID response is one point. On one hand, it's common sense and empirically demonstrated to protect (otherwise, why have doctors and nurses worn them for decades?) but on the other hand, it became the symbol of governmental oppression. The goal of reducing transmission has been put at risk due to divergent qualitative and quantitative measures.
-
-
www.foresightguide.com www.foresightguide.com
-
continue to become measurably safer and less violent, on average, just as they have over the last twenty millennia, according Stephen Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature, (2010). We might even be able to predict, with with good models, that they “will” become measurably safer and less violent, under the right circumstances.
Those 'circumstances' may be associated with demographic and governance (Think Like a Futurist.) What I see is the disparity between haves and have nots growing and eventually the haves nots will increase lawlessness out of desperation, childhood trauma, generational domestic violence, mental illness, and many other myriad of factors. The haves will no longer want to associate with the have nots and legislatively create a caste system. Even the have nots will form enclaves of safe places. I'm going dystopian here...BUT that's a silver lining, too. It's taxing being a have. Have nots have the opportunity to be closer in tune with natural forces and nature. Simply not wanting what the haves have relieves the burden of capitalism. Now i'm going Buddhist....
-
As our transistor-based Moore’s law increasingly slows, a neural network-based Moore’s law now has the opportunity to continue the trend, in a new manufacturing paradigm, focused on miniaturizing and optimizing network ensembles and circuits, not transistors.
I have no academic response to this, but OMG, i can't wait!!!!
-
For example, the probability of India’s independence from Britain probably sees-sawed up and down erratically over the ninety years of the Indian independence movement.
Washington D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam may at some point become our 51, 52 and 53 states.
-
Our smartphones will be able to listen in on and semantically understand our conversations in realtime within ten years, etc. That last one may well happen in five years, but 90% of people who have studied these things would agree it will happen commercially within ten years, as there are consumer use cases and we’re already seeing demo versions of this technology today.
Ten years is more realistic than five years. Not because technology will require the time, but rather market forces need to demand the investment. Today, 64bit computers are common place. but 10 years ago, they were 'the new thing.' Truth of the matter, 64-bit computers were around FAR longer than that but limited to servers because there was no demand from the public to have such processing capacity. Even to this day, the soon-to-be obsolete Playstation 4 is 256-bit!
-
-
www.foresightguide.com www.foresightguide.com
-
Observe (Perceive the results of just completed actions) – Review Orient (Perceive the current environment, See probabilities and possibilities ahead) – Learn & See Decide (Pick a strategy) – See Act (Get something done) – Do
This reminds me of what Bruce Lee said. Paraphrased, when fighting an opponent, one must observe your opponents fighting behavior and assess the possibilities. Decide on a combo of attacks and then implement. After you implement, you stand back and analyze/observe the results of your attack and cycle through the process again.
-
Lean Startup loop, we want to run our Do loops fast and loose, and get them faster than environmental change, or our competitors and collaborators. At other times, as with W. Edwards Deming’s Quality loop, we want to run them slowly and carefully.
There is no single way of being effective. Rather one must discern when a fast loop or a slow loop is necessary. If you act fast when a slow loop is required, you may outpace yourself and waste precious resources (touching upon Think Like a Futurist.)
-