- Dec 2023
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www.bls.gov www.bls.gov
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Overall GDP grew 3.2 percent annually between 1993 and 2007, while total employment grew 1.5 percent annually over the same period.
levels of employment do not always increase with improvments in the economy
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PCE grew 3.5 percent annually while PCE-related employment grew 1.5 percent annually. Some of the discrepancy was due to increased consumption of imported goods. But domestic PCE, which removes imported goods and services, still grew 3.0 percent annually—about twice as fast as PCE-related employment.
the number of jobs supported by customer demand reduced because that demand is not only fulfilled by domestic jobs now, it is outsourced to other countries, so demand for toys would've supported 5 domestic jobs but now it only supports 2 because the other three jobs are given to people over seas
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The remaining disparity between PCE and PCE-related employment can be attributed to productivity improvements, such as automation that reduces labor requirements
as tech improvements and better systems make it easier for someone to provide a good or service, pce related employment goes down because while previously for every 10 customers, 3 employees were needed to serve them, now one person can serve 10 customers, so that customer demand previously supported 3 jobs and now only supports one.
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a greater percentage of consumer-related jobs have been in services (see figure 5).
less production and more service jobs in america, no more factories or coal mines, there are only mcdonalds jobs and everything else like that, we much more facilitate the productions of things rather than produce them ourselves, this makes upward mobility harder in low wage jobs and give the person less power, they are also even lower quality, a single man with a factory job could support a family, a person working a mcdonalds job cant
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1993 and 2006, PCE-related employment accounted for roughly 60 to 62 percent of all employment. In fact, consumers have been responsible for a relatively stable percentage of total employment since the late 1970s: BLS previously estimated that PCE-related employment ranged between 61 to 63 percent for 1985–2000 and 60 to 64 percent for 1977–1993.
amount of jobs dependent on consumer spending has stayed the same regardless of the increase in spending
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consumer spending as a share of GDP rose several percentage points, the percentage of U.S. jobs supported by consumers fluctuated within a lower, narrow range prior to the 2007–2009 recession
consumer spending rose but the amount of jobs supported by it did not increase (meaning there might not be a direct coorelation?)
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Americans spent more on durable household items, new technology, and vehicles as the housing bubble peaked in 2005.
housing bubble caused more trust in the economy so people felt they could spend more and save less, paired with the tech boom
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The 2001 recession and its lingering effects briefly tempered consumer spending
bad ecomomy = less spending
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1990s saw a surge in spending as Americans bought new technology and globalization ushered in less expensive imports. Economic growth, rising home values and equity, easy credit, and declining personal savings rates also prompted higher consumer spending,
tech and cheaper goods encourage spending, the better the economy (better housing and car market) the more people feel safe enough to spend (they dont feel they need to save as much money, this could mean that as ai takes away job security, it could make people more nervous and cautious with how they spend their money, meaning that they would save more and spend less, this would lead to less spending and probably harm the economy even more, it would lead to businesses cutting more jobs because especially in the service sector they have the smallest number of employees needed at any given time, causing a chain reaction of job loss (maybe)
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- Nov 2023
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www.bls.gov www.bls.gov
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and the composition of PCE shifted over time with rising in-kind social benefits and third-party contributions towards health insurance and workers’ compensation.25 As a result, the percentage of PCE stemming from direct household expenditures declined from 84.5 percent in 1960 to 67.6 percent in 2006.26
So pce is both the money that people spend and the money that third parties spend to help the people, it's saying that there is less money coming directly from the people and more money coming from charities and benefits trying to help the people
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risen for 40 years, increasing from just over 61 percent in 1966 to just under 70 percent in 2006 (see figure 1). PCE growth also outpaced general economic expansion
People are spending more and more and the economy is becoming more reliant on people spending money?? So if they have no money then that's a problem
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long-term trends for consumption and employment use a time series dating back to 1993.
find them
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BLS simply estimates the correlation between consumer spending and overall employment but does not assert the causal direction of the relationship
they are only estimating but its still not a frivolous relationship
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in the context of the recession, a simultaneity issue exists between consumer spending and total job loss: do consumers cut spending in response to an economic downturn, or is a downturn caused or worsened because of consumer behavior?
if people have less financial security, then they spend less, but then them spending less might make the situation worse and they have to spend less which makes it even worse which is a cycle?? like the chicken and the egg, in the ai thing if people lose their jobs they cant spend as much, so pce goes down and the industries cannot keep jobs, because they have less money, and if less people have jobs, then they cant spend as much, so pce goes down even further, (this is only the case if the coorelation is there which it may or may not be)
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figures out what each pce industry creates with the money it gets?? so it then figures out how much of that thing is needed, it then figures out how many people are needed to produce the products or services that the industry is making, then it takes that and it goes "because the consumer supported industry of service needed to output 3000 (of whatever idk) and each person can make 6 (of whatever idk) then the industry employs 500" so then those 500 jobs are reliant on the consumer spending that funds that industry and demands those services"
so the pce that goes in creates the demands, and those demands create the jobs, so you can multiply the two to figure out how many jobs are related to it?? like if .89 jobs were required to make 2 bananas and $20 of pce makes 4 bananas then the number of jobs created would be the product of the two?
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“consumer-supported” or “consumer-related” employment are preferred to “consumer-generated” employment. This is because changes in consumer-related employment are driven not just by consumer demand, but also by factors such as the commodity distribution of demand, relationships between output and demand (total requirements matrix), and employment–output ratios.
there are many other factors involved in these jobs other than just consumer spending, figure out what the mean
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Import-adjusted PCE is then multiplied by the employment requirements table—which is also import-adjusted—to arrive at net annual PCE-related employment.
figure out what this means
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he total requirements table is transformed to an employment requirements table using employment–output ratios that reflect labor productivity
sees how many people are needed to meet the quota set before and uses that to figure out how many jobs will be created from that quota, ie if i need to make 100 apples and each person can make 1 that creates 100 jobs
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“total requirements table,” which shows how much total output directly and indirectly is required based on interindustry relationships per final demand dollar.
shows how much the system needs to make according to demand
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The “use” table shows what commodities each industry uses for production (inputs), and the “make” table shows what commodities each industry ultimately creates (outputs)
use is what things are used to make the product make is what the product is
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