This illustrates how means-ends analysis can evaluate methods: the bold method meets the goal of reliably arriving at the right answer, whereas the skeptical method does not.
bold method comes at the right answer, at the cost of looking foolish by stating the obviously incorrect answer, instead of hedging
A striking result in a recent experiment with human participants playing the name game is that, in fully connected networks—in which all players can be randomly paired with anyone else—a symmetry-breaking event occurs after an extended period of unstable coordination, such that a single name sharply rises as the globally dominant option, rapidly spreading throughout the network (6).
"symmetry-breaking event occurs after an extended period of unstable coordination"
how much information is needed for people to learn any rule-like regularity from noisy data involving frequent violations of the rule.
okay, so the learning is of a rule (rule, convention) and the learning data must have violations.
so maybe sources of alpha over events, would be the proper way to leverage this approach?
For instance, there is no intrinsic difference in the quality of greeting gestures, such as handshaking or bowing; the primary criterion for convention viability is whether it is sufficiently popular to enable reliable coordination
"the primary criterion for convention viability is whether it is sufficiently popular to enable reliable coordination"
We show that threshold-based agents produce social learning that is more accurate than imitating and optimizing agents, while also providing a better model of how a critical mass of dissenters can overturn conventions.
this feels relevant to how small group of experts -> better forecasts to trump conviction.
but is merely a kind of wounded automaton that goes on wounding. As a result, I found her actions incomprehensible and even unbelievable
would love to introduce you to my mom
Yes, his family was poor. His mother loved to read true-romance magazines. When he was twelve years old, he got a little job at the bookstore in town, and the guy in the bookstore took an interest in him.
so based on reality (stoner)
restrained, unsentimental prose that carries great emotional weight.
his adjectives / adverbs can be clumsy but w.e.
from fighting in the wars
no better antidote to misogyny than killing germans?
standing opposite each other as pillars in Stoner’s life, where his daughter is an afterthought, unseen, unheard, a footnote buried within the pages
this isn't fair. he's pained over it.
A lot of what we do around here can be thought of as distinguishing the correct contrarian cluster within the contrarian cluster
the "correct contrarian cluster"
Cinema industry figures note Dark Horse’s budget dwarfs recent blockbuster Brazilian productions, such as The Secret Agent, which was nominated for four Oscars this year and cost about R$27mn ($5.4mn).
Holy wow.
Castillo is serving an 11-year prison sentence after attempting to close Congress and rule by decree in 2022, just over a year into his term.
lmao
“If you look at the past couple of years, it seems like we’ve had a lot of once-in-a-lifetime events,” said Marc Zimmerlin, partner at Oliver Wyman and one of the report’s authors. “Obviously that’s not part of anybody’s business planning.”
the number of once in a lifetime events is increasing
“For most participants the situation was a surprise,”
people have no idea what's happening