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  1. Feb 2024
    1. Here again, however, there is a deeper answer. It is possible for economies to suffer from an overall inadequacy of demand--recessions do happen. However, such slumps are essentially monetary--they come about because people try in the aggregate to hold more cash than there actually is in circulation. (That insight is the essence of Keynesian economics.) And they can usually be cured by issuing more money--full stop, end of story. An overall excess of production capacity (compared to what?) has nothing at all to do with it.


    1. Weighting our estimates by the employment share of each occupation in the US Occupational Employment and Wage Survey (OEWS) and aggregating to the industry level, we estimate that one-fourth of current work tasks could be automated by AI in the US (Exhibit 5, top panel), with particularly high exposures in administrative (46%) and legal (44%) professions and low exposures in physically-intensive professions such as construction (6%) and maintenance (4%).

      根据美国职业就业和工资调查(OEWS)中各职业的就业比例对我们的估计进行加权,并汇总到行业层面,我们估计美国目前四分之一的工作任务可以通过人工智能实现自动化(见图 5,顶部面板),其中行政(46%)和法律(44%)职业的自动化程度尤其高,而建筑(6%)和维修(4%)等体力密集型职业的自动化程度较低。