genetic evidence alone is not enough to reconstruct the timing and spread of short-term plague pandemics, which has implications for future research related to past pandemics and the progression of ongoing outbreaks such as COVID-1
This is the perfect quote to use in my proposal! The top scientists at McMaster are literally saying that to understand the plague, I need the historical and social context alongside the genetic data.
The team studied genomes from strains with a worldwide distribution and of different ages and determined that Y. pestis has an unstable molecular clock. This makes it particularly difficult to measure the rate at which mutations accumulate in its genome over time, which are then used to calculate dates of emergence. Because Y. pestis evolves at a very slow pace, it is almost impossible to determine exactly where it originated.
This explains the scientific limitation that creates the big debate. Since the plague genome evolves so slowly, they can't even tell where it started!
These changes from the Y. pseudotuberculosis progenitor included loss of insecticidal activity, increased resistance to antibacterial factors in the flea midgut, and extending Yersinia biofilm-forming ability to the flea host environment.
This is the technical explanation for the famous "blocked flea" which is the key to the rat theory. The biofilm is what clogs the flea's gut and forces it to bite more.
the interactions of Y. pestis with its flea vector that lead to colonization and successful transmission are the result of a recent evolutionary adaptation that required relatively few genetic changes.
This is a great detail for my argument! The article calls the flea jump a "recent evolutionary adaptation." This suggests the mechanism might have been imperfect or inefficient in the 14th century, which actually strengthens the argument against the rat-flea model being the sole cause of the Black Death's incredibly fast spread. It provides scientific backing for why I need to seriously consider the human ectoparasite model and not just discard it immediately.
The Yersinia–flea interactions that enable plague transmission cycles have had profound historical consequences as manifested by human plague pandemics. The arthropod-borne transmission route was a radical ecologic change
This is the whole mechanism behind the classic rat-flea theory that my map needs to test. The article is basically saying the history of the plague is tied to this interaction. When I map the spread, I have to remember that this theory relies on a slow, multi-step process involving rats and fleas, which is the main reason I'm testing it against the faster human-to-human transmission idea.
Alternative putative etiologies of the Black Death include a viral hemorrhagic fever [16] or a currently unknown pathogen [19]. In part, these alternative etiologies reflect apparent discrepancies between historical observations of extremely rapid spread of mortality during the Black Death with the dogma based on Indian epidemiology that plague is associated with transmission from infected rats via blocked fleas
This is a perfect summary of the whole problem I'm trying to solve. Historians originally doubted the Y. pestis theory because the plague spread way too fast to be the slow rat-flea model. This confirms that I'm right to use my map to visually test the difference between the slow rat spread (the "dogma") and the rapid human spread (my hypothesis).
However, the Y. pestis genotype identified in our skeletons from Bergen op Zoom differed from those found in Hereford and Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, implying that Bergen op Zoom (and possibly other parts of the southern Netherlands) was not directly infected from England or France in AD 1349.
This is the crucial evidence for the second path.
Our finding of identical genotypes (based on 20 markers) in Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse and Hereford thus lends support to historical evidence [2,25] which suggest that plague spread from France to England (Fig. 1) in the second half of the 14th century.
The fact that they share the exact same plague strain means I have a confirmed, solid connection across the English Channel. This established route will be my baseline when I look at the historical records and chronicles. (Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse and Hereford)
our aDNA results identified two previously unknown but related clades of Y. pestis associated with distinct medieval mass graves. These findings suggest that plague was imported to Europe on two or more occasions, each following a distinct route.
This is good for my hypothesis! It proves that the plague was too complex to have followed just one simple path. Since the scientists found two different strains, my map must show two separate main routes into Europe, which means I can directly test the differences between the rat theory and the human flea theory.
Here we identified DNA and protein signatures specific for Y. pestis in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that were associated archaeologically with the Black Death and subsequent resurgences. We confirm that Y. pestis caused the Black Death and later epidemics on the entire European continent over the course of four centuries.
This could be the best starting point for my project. It shuts down the argument about what caused the plague, so I don't have to waste time debating the pathogen itself. I can now focus 100% on mapping the how and when of the spread, which is the whole point of my research.
If a revamp of the AtlanticCanada Portal is in the cards, two excellent models for what it could become areprovided by the Network in Canadian History and Environment (NiCHE) andActive History websites; tellingly, both of these websites use various social mediato promote the dissemination of history and, as a result, both reveal the potential ofhow the Internet and social media can positively impact our discipline.1
This is a really cool observation about how Canadian historians are using the internet. It shows that they've made successful websites like NiCHE and Active History. These are great examples because they prove that you can use simple tools like social media to share history with the public. It tells us that the history of the internet in Canada isn't just a technical story it's a story about making history a more public and accessible thing.
Internet scholars are uncovering and connecting histories of early internets across the globe, but the Canadian context remains underexplored.
This is an important piece of information because it states that the history of the internet in Canada is not studied enough by scholars. I already know that most people focus on the American ARPANET, but this tells me there are whole histories, like the one about SAMSON, that historians are only just starting to uncover. As Canadians we need to look for Canadian-specific sources, not just general ones.
Figure 1 The spread of the Black Death in northern Europe, 1346–1351.
This means there is already a basic route out there. My final GIS map will be used to see if this basic picture is right or if the newer theories about human parasites make a different visual pattern.
The following year the Black Death had the entire country in its grip according to contemporary chronicles, annals, and anniversary of deaths registers.
This validates my plan to use chronicles and death registers as the primary source of my timeline data.
Rats and fleas and thus the contagion itself could also be spread by transport going in the opposite direction, carrying residues of grain and grain-based provisions that would feed the carriers of the disease on their journey.
This is a deeper detail for my map. I shouldn't only map where things were exported, but also mention/point out the return trips of ships, as they could have also carried the disease.
trade in heavy goods like timber, cloth, artefacts in limestone and lead, and not least grain over long distances rapidly gained impetus from the middle of the 12th century.
This is why my project to map the plague against trade routes makes sense. The article proves that a major trade network was already in place to carry the disease.
It progressed up through the Bristol Channel to Bristol before advancing along the Severn to Gloucester.
This confirms that rivers and major travel routes were the most important paths, which I can trace when I build the map.
it struck Norway on two fronts: in Oslo, by then the largest town in the southern part of the country,40 and Bergen on the west coast.41 From these two points the infection spread inland along main roads and pilgrim routes, both south of the Oslo fjord and all the way up north to the Archdiocese of Nidaros, where the archbishop himself succumbed in 1349.42From Norway the plague must have been transmitted to Denmark, where, in the autumn of 1349, it erupted in the port of Halmstad
Oslo, Bergen, Norway and Halmstad, Denmark. Date: 1349. This gives me key points for mapping the very northern part of Europe.
From Grimsby and Hull, both situated at the entrance to the Humber, the epidemic advanced inland along the rivers of Trent and Ouse until it eventually reached the cathedral city of York in May 1349.
Route Data: York, England. Date: May 1349. This is a very specific route (along the rivers).
the Black Death arrived in Dalkey and Drogheda, two small towns situated in the English colony known as the Pale on the east coast of Ireland, in August 1348.
Third Data Point: Dalkey and Drogheda, Ireland. Date: August 1348. This helps trace the route over the sea.
the infection spread along the Thames from east to west to reach London towards the end of 1348.
Second Data Point: London, England. Date: End of 1348. This is important for showing how the disease followed a river.
he Black Death spread from France in the summer of 1348 to the port of Weymouth on the southern coast of England
First Data Point: Weymouth, England. Date: Summer 1348.
The rat flea, Xenopsylla cheopis, admittedly had the most favourable conditions to do so, but research demonstrates that it was extremely sensitive to changes in temperature and humidity
This is a specific scientific detail that helps me understand why the rat theory might be wrong in places like Scandinavia. My map can visually test if the plague slowed down in colder areas.
However, there is no evidence to suggest that rats were involved in the spread of the plague in the Middle Ages. No contemporary historical accounts exist of dead rats being found ahead of an outbreak of the plague
This is a great piece of evidence for the human parasite side. It tells me to look for things in the old chronicles that don't mention rats, which strengthens the argument against the rat theory.
It is possible that the human flea Pulex irritans played a role
This supports the newer idea (the human parasite theory) that challenges the rat theory. I will use my maps to see which one looks more likely.
the hypothesis that the plague was bubonic in origin and spread along the trade routes of Europe, carried like metastases by the black rat and its parasitic fleas.
This clearly backs up the old idea (the rat-flea theory) that I need to test with my map. It gives me a clear route to follow.
The purpose of the present research is to examine various theories concerning the origin of the Black Death, to record its routes of dissemination in the Nordic countries and across the British Isles, and to compare the pattern of that dissemination with trade routes carrying grain throughout northern Europe
This is exactly what my project aims to do. I can use this quote to show that comparing the plague's spread with trade routes is the right way to study this problem.
The coins can be arranged into various layouts such as piles representing, for example, metal types, or streams visualizing the ebb and flow of coins over the centuries.
This concept of visualizing data as "streams visualizing the ebb and flow of coins over the centuries" is highly relevant to my research. I need to show change over time, specifically the sudden drop in coins or shift in material (like the debasement of currency) that occurs during and immediately after the plague years (1347-1351). This idea of "dynamic streams" helps me think past a static map and towards visualizing economic instability and recovery across Europe.
sources of digital structured data (e.g., spreadsheets, traditional relational databases, content management systems) have seen far less critical enquiry. Structured digital data are often venerated for their capacities to facilitate interoperability, equitable data exchange, democratic forms of engagement with, and widespread reuse of archaeological records, yet their constraints on our knowledge formation processes are arguably profound and deserving of detailed interrogation.
If we only record an event's details in a rigid structured database, we create dark data. This is the subjective human wisdom which is the feelings, fear, or conflicts that are/could be found in a diary. The database intentionally leaves this wisdom behind because it is too ambiguous to fit its focus on measurable facts.
Identifiers play a fundamental role in shaping data quality and reusability.
When analyzing archival documents, we must use unique, permanent identifiers for each document. This is an ethical duty because it ensures that future researchers can trace the data's original source and context (who found it, where it's stored), preventing errors and making data reusable.
To not recognize this work, this labour is an exercise of privilege and power.
This means I must acknowledge the unseen labor that supports my work. I will give formal credit to the developers of all the open-source tools in my project's final acknowledgements.
The current digital ecosystem requires that people’s behaviour online (their clicks, their likes, their follows, their browsing) by monetized (and weaponized).
When gathering source material online, I must be critical/review any data or image found on sites designed purely to make money, ensuring my research is based on neutral, scholarly sources.
The purpose of visualization is insight, not pictures.
This reminds me that my final map as well as any other visual media I create must tell a story of scholarly discovery (ex. Acknowledging how religion affected survival rates). I must not only gather facts that look pretty on the final project map.
Excel is a black box. When we use it, we have to take on faith that its statistics do what they say they are doing.
Just as people mistrusted hidden power in the medieval period, I must avoid any closed software when analyzing my historical data. I will use open-source programs (like R, QGIS, or simple text editing) to clean and process my data so the exact transformation steps are completely visible and not hidden inside a "black box".
The principles that we should follow are: make the data and the methods that generated the results openly available script the stastical analysis (that is, no more point-and-click statistics). More on this below. use version control
This is like keeping a public, perfect record of a medieval financial ledger. When I gather my Black Death data, I must immediately put it into a system (like GitHub) that records every change, so I can always prove where my facts came from and how I used them.
Further Reading For a great workflow using KoBoToolbox, QGIS, PostGIS, and LibreOffice Base (all free and open source tools), see this overview from Ben Carter.
For more information on QGIS/PostGIS etc.