10 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2018
    1. A study last year of the Colorado River, which provides water to 40 million people and is far bigger than the Rio Grande, found that flows from 2000 to 2014 were nearly 20 percent below the 20th century average, with about a third of the reduction attributable to human-caused warming. The study suggested that if climate change continued unabated, human-induced warming could eventually reduce Colorado flows by at least an additional one-third this century.

      While this statement is largely true, it is important to note that 14 years is a relatively short time period climatologically speaking. Moreover, this paragraph largely glosses over the key finding of this study which that temperature increases ALONE (i.e., in absence of changes in precipitation) are likely to cause a runoff reduction of about 6-7% per degree Celsius of warming.

      This means that there is increased certainty that the southwest US will experience more severe droughts in the future, even if there is heightened uncertainty in climate model regional precipitation projections.

    2. some climate models forecast a total rise of six degrees or more by the end of this century.

      True, but in the spirit of transparency, some forecast only 1.5 -3 degrees of warming.

    3. was a wet one

      Wet years may actually be "wetter" than today due to the fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water (For example, Rasmussen et al, 2011) So, it's likely that we'll see occasional news reports concerning record snowfalls, or record annual snow accumulations in the Rocky Mountains, even as the region drys out and becomes increasingly prone to extended droughts.

    4. “The effect of long-term warming is to make it harder to count on snowmelt runoff in wet times,”

      This is true even if there is no large scale change in overall precipitation in the watershed. Warmer temperatures will both increase local evaporation rates, and cause an earlier and reduced snowmelt season. Both of these mechanisms reduce the availability of snowmelt runoff through the summer.

    5. If warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions make wet years less wet and dry years

      This is true, but it is a BIG IF

  2. Sep 2017
    1. Over the coming 25 or 30 years, scientists say, the climate is likely to gradually warm

      While the exact details and timing of warming are subject to unpredictable decadal (semi-decadal) climate variability (e.g., ENSO, PDO, AMOC), this statement is largely true.

  3. Jul 2017
    1. more cloud cover (which traps heat)

      "More cloud cover (which traps heat)" is a gross over simplification regarding the role of clouds as a tuning knob for Earth's climate. While it is true that clouds can act as a blanket and trap more heat, they also serve to reflect sunlight (see the prior sentence regarding the albedo effect).

      Which cloud effect ultimately wins out has to do with the optical thickness of the cloud (how reflective it is) and (as a rough approximation), the cloud height. As a quick rule: Higher clouds will act better as a blanket since they are both colder (and therefore radiate less energy to space) and typically optically thin. Conversely, lower clouds act more as a reflector since they are warmer and optically thick.

      The IPCC report does generally show a net positive cloud feedback, indicating global cloud feedbacks will lead to additional warming, but cloud feedbacks are extremely complicated and highly uncertain.

    2. Venus, which was once a very Earth-like planet with plenty of life-supporting water before runaway climate change rapidly transformed it into an arid and uninhabitable sphere enveloped in an unbreathable gas;

      My expertise is not in exoplanetary climate, but it is not a definitively accepted "fact" that Venus was once habitable. There is still considerable debate regarding the past habitability of Venus (see links below). Therefore, this statement (which appears to imply that Venus's climate trajectory is foreshadowing for Earth's) comes off way too strong.

      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069790/full

      and: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0032063311001371?via%3Dihub

  4. Apr 2017
    1. No convincing relationship has been established between warming over the past 100 years and increases in extreme weather events. Meteorological science suggests just the opposite: A warmer world will see milder weather patterns.

      There is MUCH uncertainty with regards to how extreme weather events may change in response to global climate change, and there are lively debates within the climate community about this topic. However, there is substantial evidence that extreme events are likely to increase (e.g., [O'Gorman and Schneider 2009] (http://www.pnas.org/content/106/35/14773.short)).

      The vague reference to "Meteorological Science" is a strong indication that this statement has no basis in fact.

    2. Earth has not warmed significantly for the past 18 years despite an 8 percent increase in atmospheric CO2, which represents 34 percent of all extra CO2 added to the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution.

      Comparing the global temperature beginning at 1997 is a common trope used by some to discredit climate science. It is an intentional cherry picking of an anomalously warm year (big El Nino) to serve as the starting point. To convince yourself, start the trend at 1998, and you'll get a much different answer.