for - definition - syncrhronomous failure - Cascade Institute - Thomas Homer-Dixon

definition - syncrhronomous failure - Cascade Institute - Thomas Homer-Dixon - When multiple systems fail simultaneously, the scale may overwhelm institutions to respond effectively since they have evolved to deal with issues in silos

for - paper - Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

paper details - title: Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement - authors: Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Schott Janzwood, Johan Rockstrom, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan F. Donges - publication: Global Sustainability, 2024, January 17

summary - This paper provides a scientific definition of "polycrisis"

• for: Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Ingenuity Gap, The Upside of Down, Commanding Hope, Cascade Institute, Polycrisis

• SUMMARY

  • Thomas Homer-Dixon is a researcher in polycrisis and author of a number of books on aspects of the polycrisis.
  • Here he talks about "Commanding Hope", following his other books "The Ingenuity Gap", "The Upside of Down".
  • Homer-Dixon explores the idea of hope situated in his life, especially surrounding his children and their future in an uncertain world.
  • In particular, he explores a robust form of hope that is honest, astute and powerful and he unpacks the meaning of each of these qualities.
  • Even when the odds are stacked against us, robust hope gives us hope that we can make a big difference.
  • Homer-Dixon offers a bounty of insights for anyone engaged in rapid whole system change. His Cascade Institute is developing tools to assist individuals and organizations alike who want to find the leverage points for rapid system change.

• for: quote - the impossible, quote - Thomas Homer-Dixon

• quote

  • We don't know the world's around us the systems around us well enough to know that good things are impossible
• author: Thomas Homer-Dixon
• date: 2021

• for: adjacency - Thomas Homer-Dixon - Ernest Becker, terror management theory, immortality project

• for: quote - when we get our story wrong, we get our future wrong, quote - Thomas Homer-Dixon

• quote

  • When we get our story wrong, we get our future wrong
• author: David Korten, quoted by Thomas Homer-Dixon
• date: 2021

• for: quote - Thomas Homer-Dixon, quote - danger of AI, AI progress trap

• quote: danger of AI

  • I think the most dangerous thing about AI is not super smart AI, it's stupid AI that is good enough to be put in charge of certain processes but not good enough to not make really bad mistakes
• author: Thomas Homer-Dixon
• date: 2021

• for: polycrisis, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute Royal Roads University - Changemakers Speakers Series, etymology - polylcrisis

• Talk: Hope in the Polycrisis

• Speaker: Thomas Homer-Dixon
• Host: Royal Roads University - Changemakers Speakers Series

• Date: 2023

• SUMMARY

  • Thomas Homer-Dixon is a leading complex systems scientist and director of the Cascade Institute, which he co-founded at Royal Roads University in Victoria, B.C., Canada, to study the polycrisis and identify strategic high leverage interventions that could rapidly shift humanity's trajectory in the next few critical years.
  • The talk, entitled "Hope in the polycriisis" chronicles Homer-Dixon's multi-decade journey to understand the convergence of crisis happening in the world today.

  • In a real sense, the evolution of his thinking on these complex problems are reflected in the series of books he has written over the years, culminating in the 2023 book "Commanding Hope", based on a theory of hope:

    • Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, 1999). - a book showing how other factors combine with environmental stress to produce violence.
    • “The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity?,” which appeared in Population and Development Review in 1995
    • “Resource Scarcity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth?" ?” coauthored with Edward Barbier, which appeared in Ambio (1999)
    • The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (2006), examined the threat to global stability of simultaneous and interacting demographic, environmental, economic, and political stresses. This led to examining energy as a major factor in our modern society.
    • "Commanding Hope: The Power we have to Renew a World in Peril"
      • https://commandinghope.com/

  • Homer-Dixon also talks about practical solutions, His team at Casacade Institute is researching a promising technology called ultra-deep geothermal, which could provide unlimted energy at energy densities comprable to fossil fuels.

  • He finishes his talk with his theory of Hope and how a "Robust" hope can be the key to a successful rapid transition.

• etymology - polycrisis

  • https://polycrisis.org/lessons/where-did-the-term-polycrisis-come-from/
  • Complexity theorists Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern first used the term polycrisis in their 1999 book, Homeland Earth, to argue that the world faces
    • “no single vital problem, but many vital problems, and it is this complex intersolidarity of problems, antagonisms, crises, uncontrolled processes, and the general crisis of the planet that constitutes the number one vital problem" (p. 74).
  • South African sociologist and sustainable transitions theorist Mark Swilling then adopted the term to capture
    • “a nested set of globally interactive socio-economic, ecological and cultural-institutional crises that defy reduction to a single cause” (2013, p. 98).
  • Climate change, rising inequality, and the threat of financial crises interact in complex ways that multiply their overall impact (Swilling 2013, 2019).

• for: question - adaptation - answer - adaptation, adaptation - ingenuity, endogenous growth, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Cascade Institute

• question: adaptation

  • why do some societies successfully adapt to environmental stresses while others do not?

• answer: adaptation

  • Ingenuity
    • Researchers within societies that are able to adapt effectively are able to deliver ingenuity at the right time and place to prevent environmental problems from causing severe hardship.

• references

  • The ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1995)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1995/09/01/the-ingenuity-gap-can-poor-countries-adappt-to-resource-scarcity/
  • Resource Scaricity and Innovation: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth (Homer-Dixon & Barbier,1999)?
    • http://www.homerdixon.com/1999/03/01/resource-scarcity-and-innovation-can-poor-countries-attain-endogenous-growth/
  • The Ingenuity Gap (2000)
    • http://www.ingenuitygap.com/
  • The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon, 2006)
    • https://homerdixon.com/writing/books/the-upside-of-down/