- Dec 2018
the self-sampling assumption
All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all actually existent observers (past, present and future) in their reference class.
From Wikipedia, Self-sampling assumption
the risk that humankind will go extinct soon has been systematically underestimated
The Doomsday argument
The Doomsday argument (DA) is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. Simply put, it says that supposing that all humans are born in a random order, chances are that any one human is born roughly in the middle.
From Wikipedia, Doomsday argument