 Last 7 days

covid19.iza.org covid19.iza.org

ExponentialGrowth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID19. COVID19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid19.iza.org/publications/dp13257/


www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

U.S. Economy Shrinks at Record 32.9% Pace in Second Quarter. (2020, July 30). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200730/useconomyshrinksatrecord329paceinsecondquarter


jaspstats.org jaspstats.org

Introducing JASP 0.11: The Machine Learning Module. (2019, September 24). JASP  Free and UserFriendly Statistical Software. https://jaspstats.org/2019/09/24/introducingjasp011themachinelearningmodule/


www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

BBC Radio 4—The Political School, Episode 1. (n.d.). BBC. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000kv6v

 Jul 2020

walkerdata.com walkerdata.com

Working with Census microdata. (n.d.). Retrieved July 31, 2020, from https://walkerdata.com/tidycensus/articles/pumsdata.html



Karl Friston: Up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid19. (2020, June 4). UnHerd. https://unherd.com/2020/06/karlfristonupto80notevensusceptibletocovid19/


www.sg.uu.nl www.sg.uu.nl

Dr. Maarten van Smeden (2020, May 11). Understanding the statistics of the coronavirus. Universiteit Utrecht. https://www.sg.uu.nl/video/2020/06/understandingstatisticscoronavirus



Gleeson, J. P., Onaga, T., Fennell, P., Cotter, J., Burke, R., & O’Sullivan, D. J. P. (2020). Branching process descriptions of information cascades on Twitter. ArXiv:2007.08916 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.08916


twitter.com twitter.com

Maarten van Smeden on Twitter: “This is a kind reminder that most issues with data (e.g. measurement error, incomplete data, confounding, selection) do not disappear just because you have N = ginormous” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved July 19, 2020, from https://twitter.com/MaartenvSmeden/status/1283313496382373890


github.com github.com

Viechtbauer, W. (2020). Wviechtb/forest_emojis [R]. https://github.com/wviechtb/forest_emojis (Original work published 2020)


osf.io osf.io

Adjiwanou, V., Alam, N., Alkema, L., Asiki, G., Bawah, A., Béguy, D., Cetorelli, V., Dube, A., Feehan, D., Fisker, A. B., Gage, A., Garcia, J., Gerland, P., Guillot, M., Gupta, A., Haider, M. M., Helleringer, S., Jasseh, M., Kabudula, C., … You, D. (2020). Measuring excess mortality during the COVID19 pandemic in low and lowermiddle income countries: The need for mobile phone surveys [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/4bu3q



Luppi, F., Arpino, B., & Rosina, A. (2020). The impact of COVID19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wr9jb


www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

Communicating statistics, risk and uncertainty in the age of Covid—Prof. David Spiegelhalter. (2020, June 30). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq7W1l7RptQ&feature=youtu.be



Uchikoshi, F. (2020). COVerAGEJP: COVID19 Deaths by Age and Sex in Japan [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/cpqrt


projecteuclid.org projecteuclid.org

Shmueli, G. (2010). To Explain or to Predict? Statistical Science, 25(3), 289–310.


www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Spiegelhalter, D. (2020, July 5). Risks, R numbers and raw data: How to interpret coronavirus statistics. The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/risksrnumbersandrawdatahowtointerpretcoronavirusstatistics


www.jclinepi.com www.jclinepi.com

Sperrin, M., Martin, G. P., Sisk, R., & Peek, N. (2020). Missing data should be handled differently for prediction than for description or causal explanation. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.03.028


jaspstats.org jaspstats.org

Introducing JASP 0.13. (2020, July 2). JASP  Free and UserFriendly Statistical Software. https://jaspstats.org/?p=6483

 Jun 2020

psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Lakens, D. (2019). The practical alternative to the pvalue is the correctly used pvalue [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/shm8v


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Parsons, Sam. ‘Reliability Multiverse’, 26 June 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y6tcz.


twitter.com twitter.com

Amy Perfors on Twitter: “I’ve been having a difficult time lately — partly because of [insert frantic gesturing at the state of the world], partly personal — but one thing has been a real bright light for me in the last few months. I think it has some broader lessons that might give some hope, so THREAD” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 26, 2020, from https://twitter.com/amyperfors/status/1275931919897595904


www.lshtm.ac.uk www.lshtm.ac.uk

Causal inference isn’t what you think it is. (n.d.). LSHTM. Retrieved June 26, 2020, from https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/events/causalinferenceisntwhatyouthinkit


Local file Local file

higher when Ericksen conflict was present (Figure 2A)
Yeah, in single neurons you can show the detection of general conflict this way, and it was not partitionable into different responses...

G)
Very clear effect! suspicious? how exactly did they even select the pseudopopulations, its not clear exactly from the methods to me

pseudotrial vector x
one trial for all different neurons in the current pseudopopulation matrix?

The separating hyperplane for each choice i is the vector (a) that satisfies: 770 771 772 773 Meaning that βi is a vector orthogonal to the separating hyperplane in neuron774 dimensional space, along which position is proportional to the log odds of that correct 775 response: this is the the coding dimension for that correct response
Makes sense: If Beta is proportional to the logodds of a correct response, a is the hyperplane that provides the best cutoff, which must be orthogonal. Multiplying two orthogonal vectors yields 0.

X is the trials by neurons pseudopopulation matrix of firing rates
So these pseudopopulations were random agglomerates of single neurons that were recorded, so many fits for random groups, and the best were kept?

Within each neuron, 719 we calculated the expected firing rate for each task condition, marginalizing over 720 distractors, and for each distractor, marginalizing over tasks.
Distractor = specific stimulus / location (e.g. '1' or 'left')?
Task = conflict condition (e.g. Simon or Ericksen)?

conditionaveraged within neurons (9 data points per 691 neuron, reflecting all combinations of the 3 correct response, 3 Ericksen distractors, and 3 692 Simon distractors)
How do all combinations of 3 responses lead to only 9 data points per neuron? 3x2x2 = 12.


twitter.com twitter.com

Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 22, 2020, from https://twitter.com/JASPStats/status/1274764017752592384


twitter.com twitter.com

Prof Shamika Ravi on Twitter: “1) ACTIVE cases...shows which countries have 1) Peaked: Germany, S Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain... 2) Plateaued: France 3) Yet to peak: US, UK, Brazil, India...active cases still rising. 4) Second wave: Iran and.... Spain (?) https://t.co/C5c3gAhINc” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 2, 2020, from https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1267664491040440322


iebh.bond.edu.au iebh.bond.edu.au

Institute for EvidenceBased Healthcare. (n.d.) 2 week systematic reviews (2weekSR). https://iebh.bond.edu.au/educationservices/2weeksystematicreviews2weeksr


medium.com medium.com

Morey, R. D. (2020, June 12). Power and precision. Medium. https://medium.com/@richarddmorey/powerandprecision47f644ddea5e


www.rbloggers.com www.rbloggers.com

Dablander, F. (2020, June 11). Interactive exploration of COVID19 exit strategies. RBloggers. https://www.rbloggers.com/interactiveexplorationofcovid19exitstrategies/



Brodeur, A., Cook, N., & Heyes, A. (2020). A Proposed Specification Check for pHacking. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 66–69. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201078


rviews.rstudio.com rviews.rstudio.com

Views, R. (2020, May 20). An R View into Epidemiology. /2020/05/20/somerresourcesforepidemiology/


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Hopp, F. R., Fisher, J. T., Cornell, D., Huskey, R., & Weber, R. (2020). The Extended Moral Foundations Dictionary (eMFD): Development and Applications of a CrowdSourced Approach to Extracting Moral Intuitions from Text [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/924gq


www.tandfonline.com www.tandfonline.com

Efron, B. (2020). Prediction, Estimation, and Attribution. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 115(530), 636–655. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2020.1762613


twitter.com twitter.com

Adam Kucharski on Twitter: “I’m getting asked more about the ‘k’ parameter that describes variation in the reproduction number, R (i.e. describes superspreading). But what does this parameter actually mean? A short statistical thread... 1/” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 4, 2020, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267737631481364480


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Han, H., & Dawson, K. J. (2020). JASP (Software) [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/67dcb


journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com

Rosenbusch, H., Hilbert, L. P., Evans, A. M., & Zeelenberg, M. (2020). StatBreak: Identifying “Lucky” Data Points Through Genetic Algorithms. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2515245920917950. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245920917950


twitter.com twitter.com

Probability Fact on Twitter: “Random phenomena are not obligated to follow one of the few dozen distributions that humans have given names to.” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 2, 2020, from https://twitter.com/probfact/status/1267204212972236808



Cantwell, G. T., Liu, Y., Maier, B. F., Schwarze, A. C., Serván, C. A., Snyder, J., & StOnge, G. (2020). Thresholding normally distributed data creates complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(6), 062302. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.062302

 May 2020

twitter.com twitter.com

🔥Kareem Carr🔥 on Twitter: “I want to talk about bugs in statistical analyses. I think many data analysts worry unnecessarily about this. I do think it’s important to put a good faith effort into avoiding bugs, but I know data analysts that live in terror of hearing there’s a bug in published work. 1/6” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved May 30, 2020, from https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1266029701392412673


www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Richardson, S., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2020, April 12). Coronavirus statistics: What can we trust and what should we ignore? The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/coronavirusstatisticswhatcanwetrustandwhatshouldweignore


www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Roberts, D. C. (2020, May 22). Putting the Risk of Covid19 in Perspective. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/puttingtheriskofcovid19inperspective.html


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Cuskley, C., & Wallenberg, J. (2020, May 14). Noise resistance in communication: Quantifying uniformity and optimality. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wpvq4


www.nature.com www.nature.com

Li, A., Zhou, L., Su, Q., Cornelius, S. P., Liu, Y.Y., Wang, L., & Levin, S. A. (2020). Evolution of cooperation on temporal networks. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s4146702016088w


www.estimationstats.com www.estimationstats.com

For comparisons between 3 or more groups that typically employ analysis of variance (ANOVA) methods, one can use the Cumming estimation plot, which can be considered a variant of the GardnerAltman plot.
Cumming estimation plot

Efron developed the biascorrected and accelerated bootstrap (BCa bootstrap) to account for the skew whilst obtaining the central 95% of the distribution.
Biascorrected and accelerated bootstrap (BCa boostrap) deals with skewed sample distributions. However; it must be noted that it "may not give very accurate coverage in a smallsample nonparametric situation" (simply said, take caution with small datasets)

We can calculate the 95% CI of the mean difference by performing bootstrap resampling.
Bootstrap  simple but powerful technique that creates multiple resamples (with replacement) from a single set of observations, and computes the effect size of interest on each of these resamples. It can be used to determine the 95% CI (Confidence Interval).
We can use bootstrap resampling to obtain measure of precision and confidence about our estimate. It gives us 2 important benefits:
 Nonparametric statistical analysis  no need to assume normal distribution of our observations. Thanks to Central Limit Theorem, the resampling distribution of the effect size will approach normality
 Easy construction of the 95% CI from the resampling distribution. For 1000 bootstrap resamples of the mean difference, 25th value and 975th value can be used as boundaries of the 95% CI.
Bootstrap resampling can be used for such an example:
Computers can easily perform 5000 resamples:
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Zinn, S., & Gnambs, T. (2020, April 18). Analyzing nonresponse in longitudinal surveys using Bayesian additive regression trees: A nonparametric event history analysis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/82c3w


github.com github.com

McElreath, R. Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course Using R and Stan Github.com. https://github.com/rmcelreath/statrethinking_winter2019
Entire course with materials online.


statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. (2020 April 22). Blog Post: New analysis of excess coronavirus mortality; also a question about poststratification. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/22/analysisofexcesscoronavirusmortalityalsoaquestionaboutpoststratification/

 Apr 2020

towardsdatascience.com towardsdatascience.com

the limitations of the PPS
Limitations of the PPS:
 Slower than correlation
 Score cannot be interpreted as easily as the correlation (it doesn't tell you anything about the type of relationship). PPS is better for finding patterns and correlation is better for communicating found linear relationships
 You cannot compare the scores for different target variables in a strict math way because they're calculated using different evaluation metrics
 There are some limitations of the components used underneath the hood
 You've to perform forward and backward selection in addition to feature selection

How to use the PPS in your own (Python) project
Using PPS with Python
 Download ppscore:
pip install ppscore
shell  Calculate the PPS for a given pandas dataframe:
import ppscore as pps pps.score(df, "feature_column", "target_column")
 Calculate the whole PPS matrix:
pps.matrix(df)
 Download ppscore:

The PPS clearly has some advantages over correlation for finding predictive patterns in the data. However, once the patterns are found, the correlation is still a great way of communicating found linear relationships.
PPS:
 good for finding predictive patterns
 can be used for feature selection
 can be used to detect information leakage between variables
 interpret PPS matrix as a directed graph to find entity structures Correlation:
 good for communicating found linear relationships

Let’s compare the correlation matrix to the PPS matrix on the Titanic dataset.
Comparing correlation matrix and the PPS matrix of the Titanic dataset:
findings about the correlation matrix:
 Correlation matrix is smaller because it doesn't work for categorical data
 Correlation matrix shows a negative correlation between
TicketPrice
andClass
. For PPS, it's a strong predictor (0.9 PPS), but not the other wayClass
toTicketPrice
(ticket of 500010000$ is most likely the highest class, but the highest class itself cannot determine the price)
findings about the PPS matrix:
 First row of the matrix tells you that the best univariate predictor of the column
Survived
is the columnSex
(Sex
was dropped for correlation) TicketID
uncovers a hidden pattern as well as it's connection with theTicketPrice

Let’s use a typical quadratic relationship: the feature x is a uniform variable ranging from 2 to 2 and the target y is the square of x plus some error.
In this scenario:
 we can predict y using x
 we cannot predict x using y as x might be negative or positive (for y=4, x=2 or 2
 the correlation is 0. Both from x to y and from y to x because the correlation is symmetric (more often relationships are assymetric!). However, the PPS from x to y is 0.88 (not 1 because of existing error)
 PPS from y to x is 0 because there's no relationship that y can predict if it only knows its own value

how do you normalize a score? You define a lower and an upper limit and put the score into perspective.
Normalising a score:
 you need to put a lower and upper limit
 upper limit can be F1 = 1, and a perfect MAE = 0
 lower limit depends on the evaluation metric and your data set. It's the value that a naive predictor achieves

For a classification problem, always predicting the most common class is pretty naive. For a regression problem, always predicting the median value is pretty naive.
What is a naive model:
 predicting common class for a classification problem
 predicting median value for a regression problem

Let’s say we have two columns and want to calculate the predictive power score of A predicting B. In this case, we treat B as our target variable and A as our (only) feature. We can now calculate a crossvalidated Decision Tree and calculate a suitable evaluation metric.
If the target (B) variable is:
 numeric  we can use a Decision Tree Regressor and calculate the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
 categoric  we can use a Decision Tree Classifier and calculate the weighted F1 (or ROC)

More often, relationships are asymmetric
a column with 3 unique values will never be able to perfectly predict another column with 100 unique values. But the opposite might be true

there are many nonlinear relationships that the score simply won’t detect. For example, a sinus wave, a quadratic curve or a mysterious step function. The score will just be 0, saying: “Nothing interesting here”. Also, correlation is only defined for numeric columns.
Correlation:
 doesn't work with nonlinear data
 doesn't work for categorical values
Examples:


math.stackexchange.com math.stackexchange.com

Suppose you have only two rolls of dice. then your best strategy would be to take the first roll if its outcome is more than its expected value (ie 3.5) and to roll again if it is less.
Expected payoff of a dice game:
Description: You have the option to throw a die up to three times. You will earn the face value of the die. You have the option to stop after each throw and walk away with the money earned. The earnings are not additive. What is the expected payoff of this game?
Rolling twice: $$\frac{1}{6}(6+5+4) + \frac{1}{2}3.5 = 4.25.$$
Rolling three times: $$\frac{1}{6}(6+5) + \frac{2}{3}4.25 = 4 + \frac{2}{3}$$


math.stackexchange.com math.stackexchange.com

Therefore, En=2n+1−2=2(2n−1)
Simplified formula for the expected number of tosses (e) to get
n
consecutive heads(n≥1)
:$$e_n=2(2^n1)$$
For example, to get 5 consecutive heads, we've to toss the coin 62 times:
$$e_n=2(2^51)=62$$
We can also start with the longer analysis of the 5 scenarios:
 If we get a tail immediately (probability 1/2) then the expected number is e+1.
 If we get a head then a tail (probability 1/4), then the expected number is e+2.
 If we get two head then a tail (probability 1/8), then the expected number is e+2.
 If we get three head then a tail (probability 1/16), then the expected number is e+4.
 If we get four heads then a tail (probability 1/32), then the expected number is e+5.
 Finally, if our first 5 tosses are heads, then the expected number is 5.
Thus:
$$e=\frac{1}{2}(e+1)+\frac{1}{4}(e+2)+\frac{1}{8}(e+3)+\frac{1}{16}\\(e+4)+\frac{1}{32}(e+5)+\frac{1}{32}(5)=62$$
We can also generalise the formula to:
$$e_n=\frac{1}{2}(e_n+1)+\frac{1}{4}(e_n+2)+\frac{1}{8}(e_n+3)+\frac{1}{16}\\(e_n+4)+\cdots +\frac{1}{2^n}(e_n+n)+\frac{1}{2^n}(n) $$


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Derks, K., de swart, j., van Batenburg, P., Wagenmakers, E., & wetzels, r. (2020, April 28). Priors in a Bayesian Audit: How Integration of Existing Information into the Prior Distribution Can Increase Transparency, Efficiency, and Quality. Retrieved from psyarxiv.com/8fhkp


stats.stackexchange.com stats.stackexchange.com

Repeated measures involves measuring the same cases multiple times. So, if you measured the chips, then did something to them, then measured them again, etc it would be repeated measures. Replication involves running the same study on different subjects but identical conditions. So, if you did the study on n chips, then did it again on another n chips that would be replication.
Difference between repeated measures and replication


psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com

Olapegba, P. O., Ayandele, O., Kolawole, S. O., Oguntayo, R., Gandi, J. C., Dangiwa, A. L., … Iorfa, S. K. (2020, April 12). COVID19 Knowledge and Perceptions in Nigeria. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/j356x
Tags
 descriptive statistics
 China
 precaution
 news
 general public
 health information
 data collection
 symptom
 misinformation
 knowledge
 lang:en
 public health
 is:preprint
 misconception
 information
 prevention
 behavior
 COVID19
 lockdown
 questionnaire
 media
 Nigeria
 transmission
 perception
 infection
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arxiv.org arxiv.org

Taleb, N. N. (2019). On the Statistical Differences between Binary Forecasts and Real World Payoffs. ArXiv:1907.11162 [Physics, qFin]. http://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162


doi.org doi.org

Hossain, M. A. (2020). Is the spread of COVID19 across countries influenced by environmental, economic and social factors? [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058164


users.ox.ac.uk users.ox.ac.uk

Bird, S., Nielsen, B. (2020 April 20). Nowcasting of Covid19 deaths in English Hospitals. http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0078/Covid/index.htm


doi.org doi.org

Atchison, C. J., Bowman, L., Vrinten, C., Redd, R., Pristera, P., Eaton, J. W., & Ward, H. (2020). Perceptions and behavioural responses of the general public during the COVID19 pandemic: A crosssectional survey of UK Adults [Preprint]. Public and Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050039
Tags
 response
 handwashing
 economy
 face mask
 UK
 quarentine
 minority
 data collection
 survey
 government
 lang:en
 modeling
 risk perception
 crosssectional
 is:preprint
 statistics
 selfisolation
 prevention
 behavior
 demographics
 transmission dynamics
 COVID19
 lockdown
 policy
 social distancing
 adult
 perception
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twitter.com twitter.com

ReconfigBehSci en Twitter: “an interesting source of statistics, both on COVID19 and other issues that help provide some context to numbers https://t.co/T0wBZIlCfR” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved April 17, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1246714565850734592


www.ons.gov.uk www.ons.gov.uk

Deaths involving COVID19, England and Wales—Office for National Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved April 20, 2020, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

 Mar 2020

datagenetics.com datagenetics.com

This volume of paper should be the same as the coaxial plug of paper on the roll.
Calculating volume of the paper roll: $$\mathbf{Lwt = \pi w(R^2  r^2)} \~\ L = \text{length of the paper} \ w = \text{width of the paper} \ t = \text{thickness} \ R = \text{outer radius} \ r = \text{inner radius}$$ And that simplifies into a formula for R: $$\color{red} {\bf R = \sqrt{\frac{Lt}{\pi}+r^2}}$$

This shows the nonlinear relationship and how the consumption accelerates. The first 10% used makes just a 5% change in the diameter of the roll. The last 10% makes an 18.5% change.
Consumption of a toilet paper roll has a nonlinear relationship between the:
 yaxis (outer Radius of the roll (measured as a percentage of a full roll))
 xaxis (% of the roll consumed)

Toilet paper is typically supplied in rolls of perforated material wrapped around a central cardboard tube. There’s a little variance between manufacturers, but a typical roll is approximately 4.5” wide with an 5.25” external diameter, and a central tube of diameter 1.6” Toilet paper is big business (see what I did there?) Worldwide, approximately 83 million rolls are produced per day; that’s a staggering 30 billion rolls per year. In the USA, about 7 billion rolls a year are sold, so the average American citizen consumes two dozen rolls a year (two per month). Americans use 24 rolls per capita a year of toilet paper Again, it depends on the thickness and luxuriousness of the product, but the perforations typically divide the roll into approximately 1,000 sheets (for singleply), or around 500 sheets (for doubleply). Each sheet is typically 4” long so the length of a (doubleply) toilet roll is approximately 2,000” or 167 feet (or less, if your cat gets to it).
Statistics on the type and use of toilet paper in the USA.
1" (inch) = 2.54 cm
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In the interval scale, there is no true zero point or fixed beginning. They do not have a true zero even if one of the values carry the name “zero.” For example, in the temperature, there is no point where the temperature can be zero. Zero degrees F does not mean the complete absence of temperature. Since the interval scale has no true zero point, you cannot calculate Ratios. For example, there is no any sense the ratio of 90 to 30 degrees F to be the same as the ratio of 60 to 20 degrees. A temperature of 20 degrees is not twice as warm as one of 10 degrees.
Interval data:
 show not only order and direction, but also the exact differences between the values
 the distances between each value on the interval scale are meaningful and equal
 no true zero point
 no fixed beginning
 no possibility to calculate ratios (only add and substract)
 e.g.: temperature in Fahrenheit or Celsius (but not Kelvin) or IQ test

As the interval scales, Ratio scales show us the order and the exact value between the units. However, in contrast with interval scales, Ratio ones have an absolute zero that allows us to perform a huge range of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The ratio scales possess a clear definition of zero. Any types of values that can be measured from absolute zero can be measured with a ratio scale. The most popular examples of ratio variables are height and weight. In addition, one individual can be twice as tall as another individual.
Ratio data is like interval data, but with:
 absolute zero
 possibility to calculate ratio (e.g. someone can be twice as tall)
 possibility to not only add and subtract, but multiply and divide values
 e.g.: weight, height, Kelvin scale (50K is 2x hot as 25K)
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towardsdatascience.com towardsdatascience.com

when AUC is 0.5, it means model has no class separation capacity whatsoever.
If AUC = 0.5

ROC is a probability curve and AUC represents degree or measure of separability. It tells how much model is capable of distinguishing between classes.
ROC & AUC

In multiclass model, we can plot N number of AUC ROC Curves for N number classes using One vs ALL methodology. So for Example, If you have three classes named X, Y and Z, you will have one ROC for X classified against Y and Z, another ROC for Y classified against X and Z, and a third one of Z classified against Y and X.
Using AUC ROC curve for multiclass model

When AUC is approximately 0, model is actually reciprocating the classes. It means, model is predicting negative class as a positive class and vice versa
If AUC = 0

AUC near to the 1 which means it has good measure of separability.
If AUC = 1



Softmax turns arbitrary real values into probabilities
Softmax function 
 outputs of the function are in range [0,1] and add up to 1. Hence, they form a probability distribution
 the calcualtion invloves e (mathematical constant) and performs operation on n numbers: $$s(x_i) = \frac{e^{xi}}{\sum{j=1}^n e^{x_j}}$$
 the bigger the value, the higher its probability
 lets us answer classification questions with probabilities, which are more useful than simpler answers (e.g. binary yes/no)
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.comLinkedIn1

1. Logistic regression IS a binomial regression (with logit link), a special case of the Generalized Linear Model. It doesn't classify anything *unless a threshold for the probability is set*. Classification is just its application. 2. Stepwise regression is by no means a regression. It's a (flawed) method of variable selection. 3. OLS is a method of estimation (among others: GLS, TLS, (RE)ML, PQL, etc.), NOT a regression. 4. Ridge, LASSO  it's a method of regularization, NOT a regression. 5. There are tens of models for the regression analysis. You mention mainly linear and logistic  it's just the GLM! Learn the others too (link in a comment). STOP with the "17 types of regression every DS should know". BTW, there're 270+ statistical tests. Not just t, chi2 & Wilcoxon
5 clarifications to common misconceptions shared over data science cheatsheets on LinkedIn


www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.comLinkedIn1

An exploratory plot is all about you getting to know the data. An explanatory graphic, on the other hand, is about telling a story using that data to a specific audience.
Exploratory vs Explanatory plot

 Feb 2020

www.magasinetparagraf.se www.magasinetparagraf.se

(Återkommande forskning visar att 8590 procent av tonårskillar begår brott. Allt från snatteri upp till rån och mord. Och det oavsett om de har invandrarbakgrund eller inte. Cirka 9798 procent av de här killarna blir sedan skötsamma arbetande vuxna medborgare – som beklagar sig över ungdomsbrottsligheten.)

 Jan 2020

www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com

In the dark: the cost of Canada's data deficit

 Dec 2019

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The average IQs of adopted children in lower and higher socioeconomic status (SES) families were 85 (SD = 17) and 98 (SD = 14.6), respectively, at adolescence (mean age = 13.5 years)
I'm looking for the smallest standard deviation in an adopted sample to compare the average difference to that of identical twins. This study suggests that the SD in adoption is identical to the SD in the general population. This supports the idea that lower SD in adopted identical twins is entirely down to genes (or, in principal, prenatal environment).
Note that this comment is referring to this Reddit inquiry.


andrewmaclachlan.github.io andrewmaclachlan.github.io

If you are running a regression model on data that do not have explicit space or time dimensions, then the standard test for autocorrelation would be the DurbinWatson test.
DurbinWatson test?

 Nov 2019

users.hist.umn.edu users.hist.umn.edu

For most of the twentieth century, Census Bureau administrators resisted privatesector intrusion into data capture and processing operations, but beginning in the mid1990s, the Census Bureau increasingly turned to outside vendors from the private sector for data captureand processing. Thisprivatization led to rapidly escalating costs, reduced productivity, near catastrophic failures of the 2000 and 2010 censuses, and high risks for the 2020 census.
Parallels to ABS in Australia


hackernoon.com hackernoon.com

Uber is one of the largest business enterprises that the world has seen, and all the credit goes to their fantastic team of people and a brilliant Uber business model. Here are the latest facts and Uber statistics of 2019 and few predictions for Uber in 2020.


www.excellentwebworld.com www.excellentwebworld.com

The Uber business model is considered among the best business strategies running in the world at present. That is the sole reason why Uber’s revenue model has become a multistream entity with doubledigit billiondollar earning in a single year.
The Uber business model is considered among the best business strategies running in the world at present. That is the sole reason why Uber’s revenue model has become a multistream entity with doubledigit billiondollar earning in a single year.


alittlebookofrfortimeseries.readthedocs.io alittlebookofrfortimeseries.readthedocs.io

This booklet itells you how to use the R statistical software to carry out some simple analyses that are common in analysing time series data.
what is time series?


docdrop.org docdrop.org

Top 20 topic categories.
Immigration, Guns, Education, that exactly what I choose for my three letters comments. I think this result is also influenced by media. Every day these three areas are the main subject developed on media. 10 years ago the result will show different areas.

 Aug 2019

ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu

Pages in category "Passengers"
Statistics for transportation in EU


www.uitp.org www.uitp.org

On public transport ridership in the EU
A screenshot is needed


www.sanalabs.com www.sanalabs.com

ie. decision tree split, entropy minimum or information max at 0.5:0.5 split

 Jul 2019

www.jwilber.me www.jwilber.me

In statistical testing, we structure experiments in terms of null & alternative hypotheses. Our test will have the following hypothesis schema: Η0: μtreatment <= μcontrol ΗA: μtreatment > μcontrol Our null hypothesis claims that the new shampoo does not increase wool quality. The alternative hypothesis claims the opposite; new shampoo yields superior wool quality.
hypothesis schema; statistics

 Jun 2019

pib.nic.in pib.nic.in

Ministries will be involved in close monitoring and supervision of the field work to ensure data quality and good coverage. This is the first time that the rigours of monitoring and supervision of field work exercised in NSS will be leveraged for the Economic Census so that results of better quality would be available for creation of a National Statistical Business Register. This process has been catalysed by the establishment of a unified National Statistical Office (NSO).
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 May 2019

www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com

It’s as if they’d been “describing the life cycle of unicorns, what unicorns eat, all the different subspecies of unicorn, which cuts of unicorn meat are tastiest, and a blowbyblow account of a wrestling match between unicorns and Bigfoot,” Alexander wrote.


en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Parametric statistics is a branch of statistics which assumes that sample data comes from a population that can be adequately modelled by a probability distribution that has a fixed set of parameters.[1] Conversely a nonparametric model differs precisely in that the parameter set (or feature set in machine learning) is not fixed and can increase, or even decrease, if new relevant information is collected.[2] Most wellknown statistical methods are parametric.[3] Regarding nonparametric (and semiparametric) models, Sir David Cox has said, "These typically involve fewer assumptions of structure and distributional form but usually contain strong assumptions about independencies".[4]
Nonparametric vs parametric stats


en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Statistical hypotheses concern the behavior of observable random variables.... For example, the hypothesis (a) that a normal distribution has a specified mean and variance is statistical; so is the hypothesis (b) that it has a given mean but unspecified variance; so is the hypothesis (c) that a distribution is of normal form with both mean and variance unspecified; finally, so is the hypothesis (d) that two unspecified continuous distributions are identical. It will have been noticed that in the examples (a) and (b) the distribution underlying the observations was taken to be of a certain form (the normal) and the hypothesis was concerned entirely with the value of one or both of its parameters. Such a hypothesis, for obvious reasons, is called parametric. Hypothesis (c) was of a different nature, as no parameter values are specified in the statement of the hypothesis; we might reasonably call such a hypothesis nonparametric. Hypothesis (d) is also nonparametric but, in addition, it does not even specify the underlying form of the distribution and may now be reasonably termed distributionfree. Notwithstanding these distinctions, the statistical literature now commonly applies the label "nonparametric" to test procedures that we have just termed "distributionfree", thereby losing a useful classification.
Nonparametric vs parametric statistics

Nonparametric methods are widely used for studying populations that take on a ranked order (such as movie reviews receiving one to four stars). The use of nonparametric methods may be necessary when data have a ranking but no clear numerical interpretation, such as when assessing preferences. In terms of levels of measurement, nonparametric methods result in ordinal data. As nonparametric methods make fewer assumptions, their applicability is much wider than the corresponding parametric methods. In particular, they may be applied in situations where less is known about the application in question. Also, due to the reliance on fewer assumptions, nonparametric methods are more robust. Another justification for the use of nonparametric methods is simplicity. In certain cases, even when the use of parametric methods is justified, nonparametric methods may be easier to use. Due both to this simplicity and to their greater robustness, nonparametric methods are seen by some statisticians as leaving less room for improper use and misunderstanding. The wider applicability and increased robustness of nonparametric tests comes at a cost: in cases where a parametric test would be appropriate, nonparametric tests have less power. In other words, a larger sample size can be required to draw conclusions with the same degree of confidence.
Nonparametric vs parametric statistics


en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

The concept of data type is similar to the concept of level of measurement, but more specific: For example, count data require a different distribution (e.g. a Poisson distribution or binomial distribution) than nonnegative realvalued data require, but both fall under the same level of measurement (a ratio scale).



Even if Muslims were hypothetically behind every single one of the 140,000 terror attacks committed worldwide since 1970, those terrorists would represent barely 0.009 percent of global Islam
This is a veryyy relevant statistic, thank god.

That is, deaths from terrorism account for 0.025 of the total number of murders, or 2.5%
Irrelevant statistics IMO

American Muslims have killed less than 0.0002 percent of those murdered in the USA during this period
selection of detail

How many people did toddlers kill in 2013? Five, all by accidentally shooting a gun
selection of detail of outlandish statistic to emphasise main point

you actually have a better chance of being killed by a refrigerator falling on you
selection of detail of outlandish statistic to emphasise main point

Since 9/11, MuslimAmerican terrorism has claimed 37 lives in the United States, out of more than 190,000 murders during this period
stats

pproximately 60 were carried out by Muslims. In other words, approximately 2.5% of all terrorist attacks on US soil between 1970 and 2012 were carried out by Muslims.
stats

94 percent of the terror attacks were committed by nonMuslims
stats

Muslim terrorists were responsible for a meagre 0.3 percent of EU terrorism during those years.
stats

in 2013, there were 152 terrorist attacks in Europe. Only two of them were “religiously motivated”, while 84 were predicated on ethnonationalist or separatist beliefs
stats

in the 4 years between 2011 and 2014 there were 746 terrorist attacks in Europe. Of these, only eight were religiouslyinspired, which is 1% of the total
stats

official data from Europol
Stats
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bengoldhaber.com bengoldhaber.com

inforequest
What is the current price of cyber insurance? Has it gone up in price?

inforequest
Looking for statistics on the number of cybercrime prosecutions over time.
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 Apr 2019

mp.weixin.qq.com mp.weixin.qq.com果壳4

要保持谦逊：兼容性评估的前提是用于计算区间的统计假设是正确的
應翻為確認統計假設的正確性。這點看出他們的立論基於估計的參數，而非實在的科學理論。統計假設是科學理論推理的延伸，只用推理合乎有效的邏輯形式，有效結果與無效結果都會是科學理論的證據。

