for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

Zwei der Reports, die zum Weltwirtschaftsforum 2024 publiziert wurden, betonen die Bedeutung von Risiken, die mit der globalen Erhitzung, der Zerstörung der Biodiversität und der lebenserhaltenden Systeme des Planeten verbunden sind. Der Artikel der Repubblica zählt klimapolitisch wichtige Ereignisse des Jahres 2024 auf.https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2024/01/17/news/world_economic_forum_2024_cambiamento_climatico-421899576/

Seit 2019 hat sich die Zahl der Malaria Kranken weltweit von um 20 Millionen auf 249 Millionen im Jahr erhöht Punkt ein Hauptgrund dafür sind die Folgen der globalen Erhitzung. In Pakistan sind nach dem großen Überschwemmungen des vergangenen Jahres mehr Menschen an Malaria gestorben, als den Überflutungen direkt zuvor zum Opfer gefallen sind Punkt Interview mit...https://www.liberation.fr/international/paludisme-les-phenomenes-meteorologiques-extremes-provoquent-une-recrudescence-des-cas-20231216_QIG4KWG4NRHZ3CT5GYQKEO6K2Y/

Hitzebedingte Todesfälle bei über 65-Jährigen haben seit den 90ern um 85% zugenommen. Senior:innen sind – wie kleine Kinder – zweimal soviel Hitzewellen-Tagen ausgesetzt wie 1986-2005. Extreme Hitze führte 2022 zu Produktivitätsverlusten von ca. 863 Milliarden USD. Alle Indikatoren für öffentliche Gesundheit haben sich in den letzten 9 Jahren verschlechtert. – Die NYT stellt den 2023 Report des Lancet Countdown ausführlich dar. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/climate/climate-change-health-effects-lancet.html

Mehr zum Rreport: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%222023%20report%20of%20the%20Lancet%20Countdown%20on%20health%20and%20climate%20change%22

Kurz vor der COP28 hat das Lancet-Countdown-Team seinen jährlichen Bericht über Gesundheit und Klimawandel vorgelegt. Die globale Erhitzung habe im vergangenen Jahr für 127 Millionen mehr Menschen zu leichter bis schwerer Nahrungsmittelunsicherheit geführt. In vielen Gebieten hätte die Klimaveränderung die Ausbreitung neuer Krankheiten begünstigt. Durch die anhaltenden Investitionen in fossile Energien bewege sich die Welt in die falsche Richtung https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/14/paying-in-lives-health-of-billions-at-risk-from-global-heating-warns-report

Ökologische und gesundheitliche Folgeschäden des aktuellen Landwirtschafts- und Ernährungssystems kosten in Deutschland jährlich 7%, global 10% des Bruttosozialprodukts (10 Billionen Dollar). Die Zahlen stammen aus einem neuen Bericht der FAO. https://taz.de/Neue-Studie-von-UN-Organisation/!5968357/

Studie: https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc7724en

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Evidence Tracker: COVID-19

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