• for: quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias,quote - future of democracy, quote - tilting elections, quote - progress trap, progress trap, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap, indyweb - support, future - education
• quote
  • The big tech companies, left to their own devices , have already had a net negative effect on societies worldwide.
  • At the moment, the three big threats these companies pose
    • aggressive surveillance,
    • arbitrary suppression of content,
      • the censorship problem, and
    • the subtle manipulation of
      • thoughts,
      • behaviors,
      • votes,
      • purchases,
      • attitudes and
      • beliefs
    • are unchecked worldwide
• author: Robert Epstein
  • senior research psychologist at American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology
• paraphrase
  • Epstein's organization is building two technologies that assist in combating these problems:
    • passively monitor what big tech companies are showing people online,
    • smart algorithms that will ultimately be able to identify online manipulations in realtime:
      • biased search results,
      • biased search suggestions,
      • biased newsfeeds,
      • platform-generated targeted messages,
      • platform-engineered virality,
      • shadow-banning,
      • email suppression, etc.
  • Tech evolves too quickly to be managed by laws and regulations,
    • but monitoring systems are tech, and they can and will be used to curtail the destructive and dangerous powers of companies like Google and Facebook on an ongoing basis.
• reference
  • seminar paper on monitoring systems, ‘Taming Big Tech -: https://is.gd/K4caTW.

• for: titling elections, voting - social media, voting - search engine bias, SEME, search engine manipulation effect, Robert Epstein
• summary
  • research that shows how search engines can actually bias towards a political candidate in an election and tilt the election in favor of a particular party.

• for: search engine manipulation effect, SEME, voting, voting - bias, voting - manipulation, voting - search engine bias, democracy - search engine bias, quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias, stats, stats - tilting elections
• paraphrase
• quote
  • In our early experiments, reported by The Washington Post in March 2013,
    • http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/could-google-tilt-a-close-election/2013/03/29/c8d7f4e6-9587-11e2-b6f0-a5150a247b6a_story.html?ref=hackernoon.com
  • we discovered that Google’s search engine had the power to shift the percentage of undecided voters supporting a political candidate by a substantial margin without anyone knowing.
  • 2015 PNAS research on SEME
    • http://www.pnas.org/content/112/33/E4512.full.pdf?with-ds=yes&ref=hackernoon.com
    • stats begin
    • search results favoring one candidate
    • could easily shift the opinions and voting preferences of real voters in real elections by up to 80 percent in some demographic groups
    • with virtually no one knowing they had been manipulated.
    • stats end
    • Worse still, the few people who had noticed that we were showing them biased search results
    • generally shifted even farther in the direction of the bias,
    • so being able to spot favoritism in search results is no protection against it.
    • stats begin
    • Google’s search engine 
      • with or without any deliberate planning by Google employees 
    • was currently determining the outcomes of upwards of 25 percent of the world’s national elections.
    • This is because Google’s search engine lacks an equal-time rule,
      • so it virtually always favors one candidate over another, and that in turn shifts the preferences of undecided voters.
    • Because many elections are very close, shifting the preferences of undecided voters can easily tip the outcome.
    • stats end

Thomas Kuhn's book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions was directed to scientific thought over time, but he was aware of it potentially being applied, potentially improperly, to other areas. As a result, he narrowed down his definitions and made his assumptions more explicit.

This sort of misapplication can be seen in Social Darwinism, the uncertainty principle, relativity, and memes.

It also happened with Claude Shannon's information theory which resulted in his publication of The Bandwagon (IEEE, 1956).

• self-selection effect
  • example
    • police
      • it is likely that abusive, controlling people are on average, more attracted to being police officers because they can control and abuse others in that position

• Example
  • self-selection effect
    • Doraville police department created a video of hyper-masculine SWAT team to attract new officers
    • they attracted hyper-masculine males
    • New Zealand took the opposite approach
      • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9psILoYmCc
    • We absolutely have to have oversight and very close scrutiny of police officers who abuse their authority.
    • But at the same time, we have to think more carefully about who ends up in the uniform to begin with.

• key observation
  • People who are power-hungry, people who are psychopaths
    • tend to self-select into positions of power more than the rest of us.
  • And as a result, we have this skew, this bias in positions of power
    • where certain types of people, often the wrong kinds of people,
    • are more likely to put themselves forward to rule over the rest of us

• definition
  • self-selection effect
    • those people who are power-hungry and seek control are far more likely to seek positions of power in the first place, and are focused and develop skills to get it.

The idea of the Lindy effect is subtly hiding here. Presumably it also existed before.

It's often seen in how historians can or can't easily evaluate the impact of recent historical figures without the appropriate amount of additional evaluation with respect to passing time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

• Definition
  • Dunning-kruger effect
    • the less you know, the more you think you know
    • the more you know, the less you think you know
  • the left hemisphere doesn't know what it doesn't know so it thinks it knows everything

An article recommended to me by Dalton V. that he thought I'd enjoy and appreciate. Looks like AlignmentForum is one of those "online Rationalist communities" (like LessWrong, SlateStarCodex, etc.).

The blog post "The Waluigi Effect" by Cleo Nardo touches on a variety of interesting topics:

• the Waluigi effect
• Simulator Theory
• Derrida's "there is no outside text"
• RLHF (Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback) and potential limits

explore relationships here with body doubling, observer effect (physics), and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect

Vicky Zhao indirectly frames the answer for "why have a zettelkasten?", especially for learning, as overcoming the "illusion of competence" which is closely related to the mere-exposure effect and the Dunning–Kruger effect.

Frans Johansson's "Medici effect" which describes innovation arriving from an admixture of diversity of people and their ideas sounds like a human-based mode of combinatorial creativity similar to that seen in the commonplace book/zettelkasten traditions. Instead of the communication occurring between a person and their notes or written work, the communication occurs between people.

How is the information between these people crystalized? Some may be written, some may be in prototypes and final physical products, while some may simply be stored in the people themselves for sharing and re-sharing over time.

New term for me - the Ratchet effect! - equivalent to CCE - A ratchet is a device with angled teeth that allows a bar or cog to move in one direction only. Here, it is a metaphor for the accumulation of increasingly effective modifications without reverting back to prior, less effective states.

• Confronting facts that don’t line up with your worldview

• may trigger a “backfire effect,”

• Comment

  • in contentious issues, merely presenting facts may more deeply entrench there other's held beliefs

Who falls for fake news? Psychological and clinical profiling evidence of fake news consumers

Participants with a schizotypal, paranoid, and histrionic personality were ineffective at detecting fake news. They were also more vulnerable to suffer its negative effects. Specifically, they displayed higher levels of anxiety and committed more cognitive biases based on suggestibility and the Barnum Effect. No significant effects on psychotic symptomatology or affective mood states were observed. Corresponding to these outcomes, two clinical and therapeutic recommendations related to the reduction of the Barnum Effect and the reinterpretation of digital media sensationalism were made. The impact of fake news and possible ways of prevention are discussed.

Fake news and personality disorders

The observed relationship between fake news and levels of schizotypy was consistent with previous scientific evidence on pseudoscientific beliefs and magical ideation (see Bronstein et al., 2019; Escolà-Gascón, Marín, et al., 2021). Following the dual process theory model (e.g., Pennycook & Rand, 2019), when a person does not correctly distinguish between information with scientific arguments and information without scientific grounds it is because they predominantly use cognitive reasoning characterized by intuition (e.g., Dagnall, Drinkwater, et al., 2010; Swami et al., 2014; Dagnall et al., 2017b; Williams et al., 2021).

Concomitantly, intuitive thinking correlates positively with magical beliefs (see Šrol, 2021). Psychopathological classifications include magical beliefs as a dimension of schizotypal personality (e.g., Escolà-Gascón, 2020a). Therefore, it is possible that the high schizotypy scores in this study can be explained from the perspective of dual process theory (Denovan et al., 2018; Denovan et al., 2020; Drinkwater, Dagnall, Denovan, & Williams, 2021). Intuitive thinking could be the moderating variable that explains why participants who scored higher in schizotypy did not effectively detect fake news.

Something similar happened with the subclinical trait of paranoia. This variable scored the highest in both group 1 and group 2 (see Fig. 1). Intuition is also positively related to conspiratorial ideation (see Drinkwater et al., 2020; Gligorić et al., 2021). Similarly, psychopathology tends to classify conspiracy ideation as a frequent belief system in paranoid personality (see Escolà-Gascón, 2022). This is because conspiracy beliefs are based on systematic distrust of the systems that structure society (political system), knowledge (science) and economy (capitalism) (Dagnall et al., 2015; Swami et al., 2014). Likewise, it is known that distrust is the transversal characteristic of paranoid personality (So et al., 2022). Then, in this case the use of intuitive thinking and dual process theory could also justify the obtained paranoia scores. The same is not true for the histrionic personality.

The Barnum Effect

The Barnum Effect consists of accepting as exclusive a verbal description of an individual's personality, when, the description employs contents applicable or generalizable to any profile or personality that one wishes to describe (see Boyce & Geller, 2002; O’Keeffe & Wiseman, 2005). The error of this bias is to assume as exclusive or unique information that is not. This error can occur in other contexts not limited to personality descriptions. Originally, this bias was studied in the field of horoscopes and pseudoscience's (see Matute et al., 2011). Research results suggest that people who do not effectively detect fake news regularly commit the Barnum Effect. So, one way to prevent fake news may be to educate about what the Barnum Effect is and how to avoid it.

Conclusions

The conclusions of this research can be summarized as follows: (1) The evidence obtained proposes that profiles with high scores in schizotypy, paranoia and histrionism are more vulnerable to the negative effects of fake news. In clinical practice, special caution is recommended for patients who meet the symptomatic characteristics of these personality traits.

(2) In psychiatry and clinical psychology, it is proposed to combat fake news by reducing or recoding the Barnum effect, reinterpreting sensationalism in the media and promoting critical thinking in social network users. These suggestions can be applied from intervention programs but can also be implemented as psychoeducational programs for massive users of social networks.

(3) Individuals who do not effectively detect fake news tend to have higher levels of anxiety, both state and trait anxiety. These individuals are also highly suggestible and tend to seek strong emotions. Profiles of this type may inappropriately employ intuitive thinking, which could be the psychological mechanism that.

(4) Positive psychotic symptomatology, affective mood states and substance use (addiction risks) were not affected by fake news. In the field of psychosis, it should be analyzed whether fake news influences negative psychotic symptomatology.

you may carry on the inquiry for a lifetime without discovering other events inconsistent with the hypothesis which has caught your eye. But you can never get beyond a circumstantial case. . . .<br /> "A Footnote to the Safety-Valve," August 15, 1940, Paxson Papers (University of California Library, Berkeley)

!- reference : Emilio Gomez Milan - university of Granada, Spain conducted psycho-thermal studies "Pinnochio effect" of lying generating heat of the nose

The issue here seems to be the transitivity issue. If method A calls B which in turn calls C, then if C adds a new checked exception B needs to add it even if it is just proxying it and A is already handling it via "finally". This seems like an issue of inference to me. If method B could dynamically infer its checked exceptions this wouldn't be as big of an issue.

You also probably want effect polymorphism for the exceptions so you can handle it for higher order functions.

This seems slightly different than the mere-exposure effect that Ahrens (2017) delineated. Are they same/different/related, but contextually different?

Not related to this text, but just thinking...

Writing against a blank page is dreadful and we all wish we would be visited by the muses. But writing against another piece of text can be incredibly fruitful for generating ideas, even if they don't necessarily relate to the text at hand. The text gives us something to latch onto for creating work.

Try the following exercise:<br /> Write down 20 things that are white.<br /> (Not easy is it?)

Now write down 20 things in your refrigerator that are white?<br /> (The ideas come a lot easier don't they, even if you couldn't come up with 20.)

The more specific area helped you anchor your thoughts and give them a positive direction. Annotating against texts in which you're interested does this same sort of anchoring for your brain when you're writing.

Is there research on this area of concentration with respect to creativity?

https://lu.ma/az338ptc

Joey Cofone: Are there laws to creativity?

Joey Cofone, author of the upcoming book The Laws of Creativity, is selling the idea of "float" (in comparison to Mihaly Csikzentmihaly's "flow"), which is ostensibly similar to Barbara Oakley's diffuse thinking framework, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's flâneur framing, and a dose of the Zeigarnik effect.

I'm concerned that this book will be broadly prescriptive without any founding on any of the extant research, literature, or science of the past. I'll think more highly of it if it were to quote/reference something like Merton and Barber's The Travels and Adventures of Serendipity: A Study in Sociological Semantics and the Sociology of Science.

Following on the above:

David Allen (of GTD fame) indicates that one should close all open loops to free up working memory, but leaving some open for active thought, follow up, and potential future insight creation can be a useful pattern too. (2022-09-09 9:05 AM)

Herman, B. (2021, July 12). Most unvaccinated people have low incomes. Axios. https://www.axios.com/covid-vaccines-low-income-poor-workers-58698275-0451-4158-a967-37189dbf673c.html

Willsher, K. (2021, October 11). French study of over 22m people finds vaccines cut severe Covid risk by 90%. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

Bar-On, Y. M., Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., Huppert, A., & Milo, R. (2021). Protection Across Age Groups of BNT162b2 Vaccine Booster against Covid-19 (p. 2021.10.07.21264626). https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.07.21264626

Haas, J. W., Bender, F. L., Ballou, S., Kelley, J. M., Wilhelm, M., Miller, F. G., Rief, W., & Kaptchuk, T. J. (2022). Frequency of Adverse Events in the Placebo Arms of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 5(1), e2143955. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.43955

McGinley, L., & Sun, L. (n.d.). FDA adds new warning on Johnson & Johnson vaccine related to rare autoimmune disorder. Washington Post. Retrieved July 13, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/12/johnson-and-johnson-warning/

Ledford, H. (2021). COVID vaccines and blood clots: Five key questions. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00998-w

Cubbon, S. (2021, March 17). Fringe communities feed on RT coverage to undermine Covid-19 vaccinations. First Draft. https://firstdraftnews.org:443/articles/rt-fringe-undermine-covid-vaccinations/

Beers, L. S. (2021, October 26). Opinion | Yes, You’ll Want to Vaccinate Your Kids Against Covid. An Expert Explains Why. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/26/opinion/covid-vaccine-kids.html

Jones, B., Wardman, L., & Tinkler, L. (2021, September 3). Coronavirus vaccine hesitancy in younger adults—Office for National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/articles/coronavirusvaccinehesitancyinyoungeradults/june2021

Ahuja, A. (2021, November 7). UK dithering over Covid jabs for young must not happen again. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e5dd42d4-a555-4208-a218-738fc09a618c

Paterlini, M. (2021). Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution.” BMJ, 375, n2477. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2477

Landhuis, E. (2021, November 12). Investigating Antidepressants’ Surprising Effect on COVID Deaths. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/investigating-antidepressants-surprising-effect-on-covid-deaths/

Anderson, J., Lueders, A., Sankaran, S., Green, E., & Politi, E. (2021). The COVID-19 Multifaceted Threat Scale. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/jfgvr

Swire-Thompson, B., Miklaucic, N., Wihbey, J., Lazer, D., & DeGutis, J. (2021). Backfire effects after correcting misinformation are strongly associated with reliability. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/e3pvx

McDiarmid, A. D., Tullett, A. M., Whitt, C. M., Vazire, S., Smaldino, P. E., & Stephens, J. E. (2021). Psychologists update their beliefs about effect sizes after replication studies. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(12), 1663–1673. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01220-7

Holmberg, D., Bell, K. M., & Cadman, K. (2021). A Little Good News—Relationships During Early Stages of COVID-19 Pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/x7sq4

Swire-Thompson, B., Cook, J., Butler, L., Sanderson, J., Lewandowsky, S., & Ecker, U. (2021). Correction Format has a Limited Role when Debunking Misinformation. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/gwxe4

Zhao, W. J., Coady, A., & Bhatia, S. (2021). Computational mechanisms for context-based behavioral interventions: A large-scale analysis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8cyad

Gollub, R. L. (2022). Brain changes after COVID revealed by imaging. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00503-x

Prof. Shane Crotty. (2021, October 19). 1/ The regular vaccines give great booster responses against Delta and other variants This was first shown by Moderna, with “original recipe” vaccine booster, compare to Beta booster. Https://nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01527-y https://t.co/g7YDwGIURP [Tweet]. @profshanecrotty. https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1450489709050744833

Fish in water effect

Khairy Jamaluddin 🇲🇾🌺. (2021, November 14). Real world data from Chile has shown significant increase in vaccine effectiveness after a booster for people who took Sinovac for their primary series. Biggest boost came with a Pfizer booster. Other countries are also combining SSP. Take the booster when offered. Https://t.co/N98K1eEvTR [Tweet]. @Khairykj. https://twitter.com/Khairykj/status/1459800517635305474

Continuing on the bouba/kiki effect thread, I thought some might appreciate this visualization, though I'm unsure of a more concrete method for tying it into my own practice (yet).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYCX1WpXEAcYphG?format=jpg&name=small

via

pic.twitter.com/xDfBj3mxon

— Alex Tomlinson 🪶 (@hootalex) July 19, 2022

https://universitylifecafe.k-state.edu/bookshelf/academicskills/indexcardstudysystem.html

Natalie Umberger is writing about an "index card study system" in an academic study skills context, but it's an admixture of come ideas from Cornell Notes and using index cards as flashcards.

The advice to "Review your notes and readings frequently, so the material is 'fresh.' " is a common one (through at least the 1980s to the present), though research on the mere-exposure effect indicates that it's not as valuable as other methods.

How can we stamp out the misconception that this sort of review is practical?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouba/kiki_effect

The bouba/kiki effect might be an interesting thing to use for memorizing birdsong patterns.

Network effects can describe a broad variety of phenomenon. Is Katamari ball a better descriptor of this specific phenomenon?

How does one prioritize the richer quality Lindy library material that may be even more beneficial than things which are simply new?

The Flynn effect was initially discounted as either an issue with changes in tests or longer school days or improved education.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect

Link to the same idea in The Extended Mind: https://hyp.is/-84MoBWKEeyBfg9kUEdv2w/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opinion/brain-mind-cognition.html

Interleaving (aka mixed practice or varied practice) is a learning strategy that involves mixing different topics, ideas, or forms of practice to improve outcomes as well as overall productivity. Its opposite and less effective strategy is blocking (or block study or specific practice) which focuses instead on working on limited topics or single forms of practice at the same time.

This may be one of the values of of the Say Something In Welsh method which interleaves various new nouns and verbs as well as verb tenses in focused practice.

Compare this with the block form which would instead focus on lists of nouns in a single session and then at a later time lists of verbs in a more rote fashion. Integrating things together in a broader variety requires more work, but is also much more productive in the long run.

https://bulletproofmusician.com/the-misinterpreted-effort-hypothesis-and-why-we-often-practice-less-effectively-than-we-could/

Link to: - plateau effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plateau_effect, also described in Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours rule

Re-reading a text or our notes may seem like it's an easier and more productive review strategy for tests, but working through more difficult problems that require one to do work to come up with an answer are much more effective.

Interleaved practice methods are more effective learning strategies than block practice.

the research says is that students often don't use the right learning strategy because they react negatively to effort in fact it even is so well demonstrated that it has its own name it's called the ==misinterpreted effort hypothesis== it says that students tend to see a learning strategy feel that it is more effortful more challenging and as a result they will veer away from that because they feel that that effort means that they're either doing it wrong or that the technique is bad they consider more effortful learning with being a bad thing

Students will perceive learning strategies that require more effort and work on their part to be less productive in the long term, often when the opposite is the case. This phenomenon is known as the misinterpreted effort hypothesis.

Link to: - research in Ahrens that rereading and reviewing over material seems easy, but isn't as effective as directly answering questions and performing the work to produce one's own answer. - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010028519302270

Our surroundings can have a profound effect on our thinking.

Want to read: Joan Meyers-Levy and Rui Zhu, “The Influence of Ceiling Height: The Effect of Priming on the Type of Processing That People Use,” Journal of Consumer Research 34, no. 2 (2007): 174–86, https://doi.org/10.1086/519146.

This is a whole different area than "thought spaces" but somehow relevant all the same.

cross reference this with Annie Murphy Paul's thinking with built spaces

Did Forte find this source on his own or borrow from Annie Murphy Paul? Likely the later given his reliance on other small bits which overlap.

Each word you write triggers mental cascades and internal associations, leading to further ideas, all of which can come tumbling out onto the page or screen.*

Did he pull this from Reisberg originally or from Annie Murphy Paul who he's quoted before?

This concept is an incredibly powerful one and definitely worthy of underlining in a book about thinking and note taking. It's rather sad that he hides the entire concept in the footnotes where the majority of the audience he's trying to reach will completely miss it.

tie this into Feynman technique and generation effect

Zachary A. Rosner et al., “The Generation Effect: Activating Broad Neural Circuits During Memory Encoding,” Cortex 49, no. 7 (July–August 2013), 1901–1909, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cortex.2012.09.009. #wanttoread

How does the "Generation Effect" tie into the Feynman technique for understanding, modality shifting for memory and understanding, and even a mild form of spaced repetition for memory?

Jevon's paradox and rebound effects.

Will this conference debate rebound effects of efficiency? If not, it will not have the desirable net effect.

My linked In comments were:

Alessandro Blasi, will this conference address the rebound effect? In particular, Brockway et al. have done a 2021 meta-analysis of 33 research papers on rebound effects of energy efficiency efforts and conclude:

"...economy-wide rebound effects may erode more than half of the expected energy savings from improved energy efficiency. We also find that many of the mechanisms driving rebound effects are overlooked by integrated assessment and global energy models. We therefore conclude that global energy scenarios may underestimate the future rate of growth of global energy demand."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121000769?via%3Dihub

Unless psychological and sociological interventions are applied along with energy efficiency to mitigate rebound effects, you will likely and ironically lose huge efficiencies in the entire efficiency intervention itself.

Also, as brought up by other commentators, there is a difference between efficiency and degrowth. Intelligent degrowth may work, especially applied to carbon intensive areas of the economy and can be offset by high growth in low carbon areas of the economy.

Vaclav Smil is pessimistic about a green energy revolution replacing fossil fuels https://www.ft.com/content/71072c77-53b3-4efd-92ae-c92dc02f09ad, which opens up the door to serious consideration of degrowth, not just efficiency improvements. Perhaps the answer is in a combination of all of the above, including targeted degrowth.

Technology moves quickly and unexpectedly. At the time of Smil's book release, there was no low carbon cement. Now there is a promising breakthrough: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/carbon-free-cement-breakthrough-dcvc-put-55-million-into-brimstone.html

As researchers around the globe work feverishly to make low carbon breakthroughs, there is obviously no guarantee of when they will occur. In that case then, with only a few years to peak, it would seem the lowest risk pathway would be to prioritize the precautionary principle over a gambling pathway (such as relying on Negative Emissions Technology breakthroughs) and perhaps consider along with rebound effect conditioned efficiency improvements also include a strategy of at least trialing a temporary, intentional degrowth of high carbon industries / growth of low carbon industries.

The Eureka Moment in Agile Teams

Any software developer will recognize it, The Eureka Moment. This is when you suddenly see how to solve a particular problem. We have them in all shapes and sizes and at the strangest moments. How does that work in SCRUM and DevOps teams?

Does "what they need" here implicitly mean "a design that no one really benefits from but you can bill a client for $40+/hr for"? Because that's how Glitch comes off to me—more vocational (and even less academic) than a bootcamp without the structure.

What was that part about home-cooked meals?

The typical student note taking method of transcribing, using (or often not using at all), and keeping notes is doomed to failure.

Many students make the mistake of not making their own actual notes. By this I don't mean they're not writing information down. In fact many are writing information down, but we can't really call these notes. Notes by definition ought to transform something seen or heard into one's own words. Without the transformation, these students think that they're taking notes, but in reality they're focusing their efforts on being transcriptionists. They're attempting to capture something for later consumption. This is a deadly trap! By only transcribing, they're not taking advantage of transforming information by putting ideas down in their own words to test their understanding. Often worse, even if they do transcribe notes, they don't revisit them. If they do revisit them, they're simply re-reading them and not actively working with them. Only re-reading them will lead to the illusion that they're learning something when in fact they're falling into the mere-exposure effect.

Students who are acting as transcriptionists would be better off simply reading a textbook and taking notes directly from that.

A note that isn't revisited or revised, may as well be a note not taken. If we were to consider a spectrum of useful, valuable, and worthwhile notes, these notes would be at the lowest end of the spectrum.

link to: https://hypothes.is/a/QgkL6IkIEeym7OeN9v9New

Taylor, S. (2021). The Psychology of Pandemics. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-072720-020131

Five biggest myths about the COVID-19 vaccines, debunked. (n.d.). Fortune. Retrieved April 29, 2022, from https://fortune.com/2021/10/02/five-biggest-myths-covid-19-vaccines/

Prof Jeffrey S Morris on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved April 26, 2022, from https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1462573249712304128

ReconfigBehSci. (2021, February 1). Great list, but I think one of the main problems with “absence of evidence fallacy” is its phrasing: “absence of evid. Is not the same as evidence of absence” is a true statement, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” is literally false @richarddmorey [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1356172673651503104

Eric Topol. (2021, April 23). Just published @TheLancet: Effect of vaccine in >23,000 health care workers https://t.co/ohy3VyHM3C Dose response: No vaccine 977 infections; 1 dose 71 infections; 2 doses 9 infections (14|8|4 per 10,000 person-days) "can prevent both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection " https://t.co/EybVBFmXrU [Tweet]. @EricTopol. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1385729322472730626

Canada, P. H. A. of. (2021, July 30). Vaccines for children: COVID-19 [Education and awareness]. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/vaccination-children/covid-19.html

Cox, D. (n.d.). How children are being affected by long Covid. Retrieved March 7, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220225-are-children-at-risk-of-long-covid

Wu, K. J. (2021, December 1). What J&J Can Still Teach Us. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/12/vaccine-durability-annual-covid-boosters/620863/

A few factors that cause the plateau effect among Grade 6 to 8 students

Good example of developer tunnel vision and something akin to the consultant effect or Pournelle's Iron Law—the opposite of disintermediation.

Even when taught that some methods of learning don't work, students will still actively use and focus on them.

Are those using social annotation purposely helping students to steer clear of these methods? is there evidence that the social part of some of these related annotation or conversational practices with both the text and one's colleagues helpful? Do they need to be taken out of the text and done in a more explicit manner in a lecture/discussion section or in a book club like setting similar to that of Dan Allossso's or even within a shared space like the Obsidian book club to have more value?

What methods of studying actually make us learn something versus make us feel as if we've learned something?

Active reading, progressive summarization may be on this list while highlighting and underlining might not. Or perhaps there's a spectrum of poor to good, and if this is the case, what does it look like? Is it the same for everyone or are factors like neurodivergence part of the equation which might change this spectrum of learning methods and techniques?

What is the relationship between understanding and learning? Is it true that learning is understanding? Is the relationship bi-directional?

The mere-exposure effect can make us feel as if we've learned something, but without testing ourselves or being able to reframe and recompose an idea we haven't really learned it.

The mere-exposure effect can be dangerous when rereading a text because we are more likely to falsely believe we understand it. Robert Bornstein's research from 1989 indicates that we will tend to like the text more, which can pull us into confirmation bias.

Bornstein, Robert F. 1989. “Exposure and Affect: Overview and Meta-Analysis of Research, 1968-1987.” Psychological Bulletin 106 (2): 265–89.

One can use the Zeigarnik effect to their advantage by keeping specific unanswered questions in their mind so that it can use the diffuse thinking effect to solve them while doing other activities like walking, doing the dishes, etc.

The Zeigarnik effect is the idea that open or pending tasks tend to occupy our short-term memory until they are done or our brain is otherwise convinced that they're "finished". This is why note taking can be valuable. By writing down small things, we can free up our short-term or working memories to focus or work on other potentially more important tasks. It is named for Soviet psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik.

The Zeigarnik effect is some of the value behind David Allen's "Getting Things Done" system. Writing down to do lists tricks our mind into freeing up space from things we need to take care of. If they're really important, we've got a list and can then take care of them. Meanwhile our working memories are freed up for other tasks.

The mere-exposure effect leads us to confuse familiarity with a process with actual skill.

ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @T2Fox61: .@YaleMed immunobiologist @VirusesImmunity leading research into long #COVID19. @FOX61News https://t.co/oyZSGwRNcS’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 13 February 2022, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1484805325886832640

We measure what we find important.

Measures can and often become self-fulfilling targets. (read: Rankings and Reactivity by W. Espeland and M. Sauder https://www.stmarys-ca.edu/sites/default/files/attachments/files/rankings-and-reactivity-2007.pdf)

When a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a good measure.

So why measure?

Is observation and measurement part of a larger complex process which isn't finished until the process itself is finished?

This seems related to the measurement problem in quantum mechanics, Schrödinger's cat, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, and the observer effect).

ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘astonishing’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 14 January 2022, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1481916090930376709

•. (n.d.). Even Mild COVID Infections Can Have Lasting Impacts Like ‘Chemo Brain,’ Study Finds. NBC New York. Retrieved 12 January 2022, from https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/even-mild-covid-infections-can-have-lasting-impacts-like-chemo-brain-study-finds/3489958/

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/02/attention-span-focus-screens-apps-smartphones-social-media

Thread from neuroscientist refutation of portions of this article:

https://twitter.com/garwboy/status/1477714767854850049

Meaghan Kall. (2021, November 15). There are 2 other impressive conclusions from this study: 1. Comparing vaccine effectiveness of booster vs “fully vaxxed” as the baseline. Booster ADDS 81-85% protection against symptomatic infection ON TOP of what you already had from your primary (2-dose) vaccination https://t.co/5EO7m6GHTZ [Tweet]. @kallmemeg. https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1460207567070769156

Prof. Dr. Sanjeev Bagai. (2021, November 23). Comprehensive dossier evidence of effectiveness of third dose Vax. @TVMohandasPai @ARanganathan72 @TimesNow @RShivshankar [Tweet]. @BagaiDr. https://twitter.com/BagaiDr/status/1463121434830512129