- Jul 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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A “razor” is a rule of thumb that simplifies decision making. The most powerful razors I’ve found:
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gist.github.com gist.github.com
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5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
5.10 Believability weight your decision making.
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5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
5.1 Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
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- Jun 2022
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Local file Local file
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By dropping or reducing or postponing the least importantparts, we can unblock ourselves and move forward even when timeis scarce.
When working on a project, to stave off potential procrastination on finishing, one should focus on the minimum viable version and finish that. They can then progressively enhance portions and add on addition pieces which may be beneficial or even nice to have.
Spending too much time on the things that sound nice or that one "might want to have" in the future will be the death of the thing.
link to: - you ain't gonna need it - bikeshedding for procrastination
questions: - Does the misinterpreted-effort hypothesis play a role in creating our procrastination and/or lead to decision fatigue?
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- Apr 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci [@SciBeh]. (2021, October 2). @alexdefig and that any attempt to bring to the table a fact that runs counter to a particular conclusion is some kind of lobbying. That really -to me- is not how science should work, nor is it how science-based policy should work. [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1444361815492726784
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www.irrodl.org www.irrodl.org
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they clearly find consensus decision making and production of a product much less satisfying
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- Mar 2022
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www.washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com
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Perspective | Natural immunity to covid is powerful. Policymakers seem afraid to say so. (n.d.). Washington Post. Retrieved 31 March 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/15/natural-immunity-vaccine-mandate/
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Jia, J. S., Yuan, Y., Jia, J., & Christakis, N. (2022, January 30). Risk perception and behaviour change after personal vaccination for COVID-19 in the USA. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/afyv8
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Halilova, J. G., Fynes-Clinton, S., Green, L., Myerson, J., Wu, J., Ruggeri, K., … Rosenbaum, R. (2022, January 28). Short-sighted decision-making by those not vaccinated against COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6uqky
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Sinclair, Alyssa H., Morgan Taylor, Freyja Brandel-Tanis, Audra Davidson, Aroon T. Chande, Lavanya Rishishwar, Clio Maria Andris, et al. ‘Counteracting COVID-19 Risk Misestimation with an Interactive Website’. PsyArXiv, 9 February 2022. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/v8tdf.
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Karan, A. (2022). We cannot afford to repeat these four pandemic mistakes. BMJ, 376, o631. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o631
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Local file Local file
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“Scarcity: WhyHaving Too Little Means So Much” (2013) by Mullainathan andShafir. They investigate how the experience of scarcity has cognitiveeffects and causes changes in decision-making processes.
I'm reminded of a reference recently to Republicans being upset that poor people of color would "waste" their money on frivolities like manicures and fake fingernails instead of on food or other necessities. How might this tie into the argument made in this book?
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- Feb 2022
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Local file Local file
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Even though results of these studies are currently under intensescrutiny and have to be taken with a grain of salt (Carter andMcCullough 2014; Engber and Cauterucci 2016; Job, Dweck andWalton 2010), it is safe to argue that a reliable and standardisedworking environment is less taxing on our attention, concentration
and willpower, or, if you like, ego. It is well known that decision-making is one of the most tiring and wearying tasks...
Having a standardized and reliable working environment or even workflow can be less taxing on our attention, our concentration, and our willpower leaving more energy for making decisions and thinking which can have a greater impact.
Does the fact that the relative lack of any decision making about what to see or read next seen in doomscrolling underlie some of the easily formed habit of the attention economy? Not having to actively decide what to read next combined with the random rewards of interesting tidbits creating a sense of flow is sapping not our mental energy, but our time. How can we better design against this?
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Gradassi, A., Bos, W. van den, & Molleman, L. (2022). Confidence of others trumps confidence of self in social information use. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mqyu2
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osf.io osf.io
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Calarco, J. M. (2021). The Moral Calm Before the Storm: How a Theory of Moral Calms Explains the Covid-Related Increase in Parents’ Refusal of Vaccines for Children. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/m7c3p
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Grüning, D. J., Panizza, F., & Lorenz-Spreen, P. (2022). The importance of informative interventions in a wicked environment. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/azsbn
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www.kas.de www.kas.deuntitled4
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Women’s rights and family matters
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Decision-making
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matters that pertain to the children.
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the eldest son makes all the major decisions
male authority trumps parental/age authority of a woman
Tags
Annotators
URL
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- Jan 2022
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Values, rather than numbers, should drive decision-making. Ask whether what you measure accurately reflects your priorities. Many of our most cherished values are not amenable to quantitative measurement.
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royalsociety.org royalsociety.org
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The online information environment | Royal Society. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2022, from https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/online-information-environment/
Tags
- scientific information
- lang:en
- public trust
- decision making
- search engine
- is:webpage
- science
- information environment
- social media
- climate change
- interaction
- online platform
- provenance enhancing technology
- academic
- technology
- misinformation
- information
- behavioral science
- censorship
- policymaker
- shallowfake
- deepfake
- malinformation
- bots
- misleading
- vaccine
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URL
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Seaman, K. L., Christensen, A. P., Senn, K., Cooper, J., & Cassidy, B. S. (2022). Age Differences in the Social Associative Learning of Trust Information. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b38rd
Tags
- learning
- aging
- lang:en
- developmental psychology
- decision making
- age differences
- social cognition
- trust
- judgement
- fMRI
- research
- trust information
- social processing
- personality psychology
- behavioral science
- social associative learning
- is:preprint
- cognitive psychology
- social psychology
- social science
- social cue
- working memory
Annotators
URL
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Krueger, P., Callaway, F., Gul, S., Griffiths, T., & Lieder, F. (2022). Discovering Rational Heuristics for Risky Choice. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mg7dn
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- Dec 2021
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Holford, D. L., Juanchich, M., & Sirota, M. (2021). Ambiguity and unintended inferences about risk messages for COVID - 19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/w5rd6
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- Nov 2021
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www.bps.org.uk www.bps.org.uk
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Decision-making in uncertainty | BPS. (n.d.). Retrieved November 22, 2021, from https://www.bps.org.uk/events/decision-making-uncertainty
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www.inc.com www.inc.com
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Many decisions are reversible, two-way doors. Those decisions can use a light-weight process. Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70 percent of the information you wish you had. Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible -- one-way doors -- and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don't like what you see on the other side, you can't get back to where you were before. But most decisions aren't like that -- they are changeable, reversible -- they're two-way doors. If you've made a suboptimal two-way door decision, you don't have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through.
Reversible decisions can be made with less information / certainty
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www.apa.org www.apa.org
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October 26 & 2021. (n.d.). Stress and decision-making during the pandemic. Https://Www.Apa.Org. Retrieved 11 November 2021, from https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/stress/2021/october-decision-making
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Ahuja, A. (2021, November 7). UK dithering over Covid jabs for young must not happen again. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e5dd42d4-a555-4208-a218-738fc09a618c
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dr. Thomas Wilckens. (2021, October 31). JCVI facing calls from within for greater transparency over decision-making https://buff.ly/3GwVqCZ JCVI has been criticised for failing to publish detailed minutes, modelling and analysis behind its decision to advise vaccinating all over-16s in Britain #covid19 #coronavirus https://t.co/nWbnvci7LI [Tweet]. @Thomas_Wilckens. https://twitter.com/Thomas_Wilckens/status/1454798820156530689
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www.mavenclinic.com www.mavenclinic.com
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With Only 26% of Pregnant People in the United States Vaccinated Against COVID-19, New Survey Sheds Light on the Reasons Why. (n.d.). Retrieved November 1, 2021, from https://www.mavenclinic.com/post/covid-19-vaccine-survey-pregnant-people?utm_content=185156625&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-2236392565
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- Oct 2021
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“Speed kills.” If you are able to be nimble, assess the ever-changing environment, and adapt quickly, you’ll always carry the advantage over any opponents. Start applying the OODA Loop to your day-to-day decisions and watch what happens. You’ll start to notice things that you would have been oblivious to before. Before jumping to your first conclusion, you’ll pause to consider your biases, take in additional information, and be more thoughtful of consequences.
In che modo si può applicare il modello OODA Loop nella vita quotidiana?
Semplicemente applicando ad ogni nostra decisione le fasi previste dal modello, rendendo questo processo una abitudine riusciremo ad essere sempre più veloci nell'eseguirlo e questo ci darà la velocità necessaria per sopravvivere e vincere.
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www.cbc.ca www.cbc.ca
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News ·, A. M. · C. (2021, October 2). Alberta acted like the pandemic was over. Now it’s a cautionary tale for Canada | CBC News. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/alberta-fourth-wave-surge-hospitals-icu-covid-19-1.6197263
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Basol, M., Roozenbeek, J., & van der Linden, S. (n.d.). Good News about Bad News: Gamified Inoculation Boosts Confidence and Cognitive Immunity Against Fake News. Journal of Cognition, 3(1), 2. https://doi.org/10.5334/joc.91
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www.propublica.org www.propublica.org
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Marco, M. A., Meg. (n.d.). How Your Brain Tricks You Into Taking Risks During the Pandemic. ProPublica. Retrieved September 2, 2021, from https://www.propublica.org/article/how-your-brain-tricks-you-into-taking-risks-during-the-pandemic?token=l24Nh-wDyBgy53bhcy5jGvQh1IDRcxzE
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mriids.org mriids.orgMRIIDS1
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MRIIDS. (n.d.). Retrieved September 6, 2021, from https://mriids.org/about
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www.jstor.org www.jstor.org
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Team syntegrity and democratic group decision making: theory and practice
Team Syntegrity
Stafford Beer created Team Syntegrity as a methodology for social interaction that predisposes participants towards shared agreement among varied and sometimes conflicting interests, without compromising the legitimate claims and integrity of those interests. This paper outlines the methodology and the underlying philosophy, describing several applications in a variety of countries and contexts, indicating why such an approach causes us to re-think more traditional approaches to group decision processes, and relating Team Syntegrity to other systems approaches.
Shared by Kirby Urner in the Trimtab Book Club
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Lorenz-Spreen, P., Lewandowsky, S., Sunstein, C. R., & Hertwig, R. (2020). How behavioural sciences can promote truth, autonomy and democratic discourse online. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(11), 1102–1109. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0889-7
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- Sep 2021
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Leder, J., Lauer, T., Schütz, A., & Gürerk, Ö. (2021). Background Uncertainty Can Increase Risk Aversion in Decision Making. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/6s4vf
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pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Pluviano, S., Watt, C., Ragazzini, G., & Della Sala, S. (2019). Parents’ beliefs in misinformation about vaccines are strengthened by pro-vaccine campaigns. Cognitive Processing, 20(3), 325–331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-019-00919-w
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Verschuere, B., Lin, C.-C., Huismann, S., Kleinberg, B., & Meijer, E. (2021). Use the best, ignore the rest: How heuristics allow to tell a lie from the truth [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kdr6u
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Weiss, D. J., & Shanteau, J. (2021). The futility of decision making research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 90, 10–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2021.08.018
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Halstead, I., Lewis, G., & McKay, R. (2021). Opposition to Novel Biotechnologies: Testing An Omission Bias Account. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4ef7m
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- Aug 2021
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medium.com medium.com
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Are 7 French fries too many?. A causal inference explainer | by Ellie Murray | Medium. (n.d.). Retrieved August 22, 2021, from https://medium.com/@EpiEllie/are-7-french-fries-too-many-d6226e78dc1f
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gh.bmj.com gh.bmj.com
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Stratil, Jan M., Maike Voss, and Laura Arnold. “WICID Framework Version 1.0: Criteria and Considerations to Guide Evidence-Informed Decision-Making on Non-Pharmacological Interventions Targeting COVID-19.” BMJ Global Health 5, no. 11 (November 1, 2020): e003699. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003699.
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Sun, Q., Lu, J., Zhang, H., & Liu, Y. (2021). Social Distance Reduces the Biases of Overweighting Small Probabilities and Underweighting Large Probabilities. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 47(8), 1309–1324. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220969051
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Dai, H., Saccardo, S., Han, M. A., Roh, L., Raja, N., Vangala, S., Modi, H., Pandya, S., Sloyan, M., & Croymans, D. M. (2021). Behavioral Nudges Increase COVID-19 Vaccinations. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03843-2
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- Jul 2021
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ayjay.org ayjay.org
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To the extentthat people accommodate themselves to the faceless inflexibility ofplatforms, they will become less and less capable of seeing thevirtues of institutions, on any scale. One consequence of thataccommodation will be an increasing impatience withrepresentative democracy, and an accompanying desire to replacepolitical institutions with platform-based decision making:referendums and plebiscites, conducted at as high a level as possible(national, or in the case of the European Union, transnational).Among other things, these trends will bring, in turn, theexploitation of communities and natural resources by people whowill never see or know anything about what they are exploiting. !escope of local action will therefore be diminished, and will comeunder increasing threat of what we might call, borrowing a phrasefrom Einstein, spooky action at a distance.
This fits in line with my thesis to make corporations and especially corporate executives and owners be local, so that they can see the effect that their decisions are having.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Williams, W. C., Haque, E., Mai, B., & Venkatraman, V. (2021). Face masks influence how facial expressions are perceived: A drift-diffusion model of emotion judgments. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/a8yxf
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van der Plas, E., Mason, D., Livingston, L. A., Craigie, J., Happé, F., & Fleming, S. M. (2021). Computations of confidence are modulated by mentalizing ability [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/c4pzj
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- Jun 2021
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asaobinoue.blogspot.com asaobinoue.blogspot.com
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your goal cannot be to follow orders in order to get a higher grade, instead you are free to listen, consider things, ignore ideas, or ask more honest questions of your readers. You are now free to make your own decisions on your writing.
Labor-based grading in writing allows students to listen and adjust to comments which gives them greater freedom and autonomy in both their learning process as well as their writing.
Ideally, in a system like this, a shorter feedback loop of commentary and readjustment may also help to more carefully hone their skills versus potentially hitting a plateau after which it's more difficult to improve.
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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V Shah, A. S., Gribben, C., Bishop, J., Hanlon, P., Caldwell, D., Wood, R., Reid, M., McMenamin, J., Goldberg, D., Stockton, D., Hutchinson, S., Robertson, C., McKeigue, P. M., Colhoun, H. M., & McAllister, D. A. (2021). Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: An observational study in healthcare workers and their households [Preprint]. Public and Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.21253275
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Mielicki, M., Fitzsimmons, C., Schiller, L., Scheibe, D., Taber, J. M., Sidney, P., Matthews, P. G., Waters, E. A., Coifman, K., & Thompson, C. A. (2021). Adults’ Health-Related Problem Solving Is Facilitated by Number Lines, But Not Risk Ladders and Icon Arrays. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/h3stw
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www.economist.com www.economist.com
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better “decision hygiene” such as designating an observer for group decisions, to prevent common biases and noisy judgments. For example, they can ensure that participants in a team reach independent assessments before coming together as a group to aggregate their decisions.
Approaches for decreasing noise in decision making
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- May 2021
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Morgan, O. W., Aguilera, X., Ammon, A., Amuasi, J., Fall, I. S., Frieden, T., Heymann, D., Ihekweazu, C., Jeong, E., Leung, G. M., Mahon, B., Nkengasong, J., Qamar, F. N., Schuchat, A., Wieler, L. H., & Dowell, S. F. (2021). Disease surveillance for the COVID-19 era: Time for bold changes. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01096-5
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Agarwal, A. (2021). The Accidental Checkmate: Understanding the Intent behind sharing Misinformation on Social Media. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kwu58
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80000hours.org 80000hours.org
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Career decision making involves so much uncertainty that it’s easy to feel paralysed. Instead, make some hypotheses about which option is best, then identify key uncertainties: what information would most change your best guess?
We tend to think that uncertainties can't be weighted in our decision-making, but we bet on uncertainties all the time. Rather than throw your hands up and say, "I don't have enough information to make a call", how can we think deliberately about what information would reduce the uncertainty?
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Zhao, W. J., Coady, A., & Bhatia, S. (2021). Computational mechanisms for context-based behavioral interventions: A large-scale analysis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8cyad
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Jama, A., Ali, M., Lindstrand, A., Butler, R., & Kulane, A. (2018). Perspectives on the Measles, Mumps and Rubella Vaccination among Somali Mothers in Stockholm. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112428
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Gagne, Christopher, and Peter Dayan. ‘Peril, Prudence and Planning as Risk, Avoidance and Worry’. PsyArXiv, 11 May 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tcn7e.
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Gagneur, A. (2020). Motivational interviewing: A powerful tool to address vaccine hesitancy. Canada Communicable Disease Report, 46(4), 93–97. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v46i04a06
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pediatrics.aappublications.org pediatrics.aappublications.org
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Zhou, F., Shefer, A., Wenger, J., Messonnier, M., Wang, L. Y., Lopez, A., Moore, M., Murphy, T. V., Cortese, M., & Rodewald, L. (2014). Economic Evaluation of the Routine Childhood Immunization Program in the United States, 2009. Pediatrics, 133(4), 577–585. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2013-0698
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rs-delve.github.io rs-delve.github.io
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Initiative, T. D. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Development & Implementation; Scenarios, Options, Key Decisions. https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/10/01/covid19-vaccination-report.html
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Bielicki, J. A., Duval, X., Gobat, N., Goossens, H., Koopmans, M., Tacconelli, E., & Werf, S. van der. (2020). Monitoring approaches for health-care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30458-8
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Bedder, R., Vaghi, M., Dolan, R., & Rutledge, R. (2020). Risk taking for potential losses but not gains increases with time of day. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3qdnx
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- Apr 2021
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www.tandfonline.com www.tandfonline.com
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Dannetun, E., Tegnell, A., Hermansson, G., & Giesecke, J. (2005). Parents’ reported reasons for avoiding MMR vaccination. Scandinavian Journal of Primary Health Care, 23(3), 149–153. https://doi.org/10.1080/02813430510031306
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Jacobson, R. M., Targonski, P. V., & Poland, G. A. (2007). A taxonomy of reasoning flaws in the anti-vaccine movement. Vaccine, 25(16), 3146–3152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.01.046
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Białek, M., & Grossmann, I. (2021). Social bias insights concern judgments rather than real-world decisions. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y3h7n
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Civai, C., Caserotti, M., Carrus, E., Huijsmans, I., & Rubaltelli, E. (2021). Perceived scarcity and cooperation contextualized to the COVID-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zu2a3
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- Mar 2021
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Fabry, P., Gagneur, A., & Pasquier, J.-C. (2011). Determinants of A (H1N1) vaccination: Cross-sectional study in a population of pregnant women in Quebec. Vaccine, 29(9), 1824–1829. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.12.109
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Qian, M., Chou, S.-Y., & Lai, E. K. (2020). Confirmatory bias in health decisions: Evidence from the MMR-autism controversy. Journal of Health Economics, 70, 102284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102284
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www.tandfonline.com www.tandfonline.com
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Meleo-Erwin, Z., Basch, C., MacLean, S. A., Scheibner, C., & Cadorett, V. (2017). “To each his own”: Discussions of vaccine decision-making in top parenting blogs. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 13(8), 1895–1901. https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2017.1321182
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ryan, W., Baum, S., & Evers, E. (2021). People Behave as if they Anticipate Regret Conditional on Experiencing a Bad Outcome. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dcgpy
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www-sciencedirect.ez29.periodicos.capes.gov.br www-sciencedirect.ez29.periodicos.capes.gov.br
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Larson, H. J., Cooper, L. Z., Eskola, J., Katz, S. L., & Ratzan, S. (2011). Addressing the vaccine confidence gap. The Lancet, 378(9790), 526–535. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60678-8
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Brown, K. F., Kroll, J. S., Hudson, M. J., Ramsay, M., Green, J., Long, S. J., Vincent, C. A., Fraser, G., & Sevdalis, N. (2010). Factors underlying parental decisions about combination childhood vaccinations including MMR: A systematic review. Vaccine, 28(26), 4235–4248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.04.052
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Dubé, E., Laberge, C., Guay, M., Bramadat, P., Roy, R., & Bettinger, J. A. (2013). Vaccine hesitancy. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 9(8), 1763–1773. https://doi.org/10.4161/hv.24657
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Levy, N. L., & Ross, R. M. (2020). The cognitive science of fake news [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3nuzj
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