So far, the bulk of energy-related economic relief has gone to the fossil fuel industry

The U.S. Risks Locking In a Climate Health Crisis in Response to COVID

It uses words and photos to remind you of where you’ve been and whom you’ve seen

New DIY Contact Tracing App Is Based on the Science of Memory

10.1038/d41586-020-03504-w

The Oxford–AstraZeneca partnership is the first major developer to publish detailed data from phase III trials.

Oxford COVID-vaccine paper highlights lingering unknowns about results

Three quarters of the population of Manaus in Brazil's Amazon have been infected with coronavirus since the city's first outbreak in March. Researchers from Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team, and a team of international collaborators found that:  76% population in Manaus became infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March and October 2020 In contrast, they find that 29% became infected in São Paulo, the first city detecting SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Latin America

Three quarters of Brazilian Amazon have been infected with COVID-19 since March

BackgroundA safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials.MethodsThis analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674.FindingsBetween April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation.InterpretationChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials.

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32661-1

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Dean Michelle Williams presents "COVID-19: Chasing Science to Save Lives," When Public Health Means Business, Part 6, featuring Dr. Anthony Fauci and moderated by Dr. Sanjay Gupta of CNN. December 9, 3-4pm ET. Presented jointly by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the New England Journal of Medicine. Hosted by The Forum at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

COVID-19: Chasing Science to Save Lives

Before the second peak, we made some bold claims—based upon dynamic causal modelling—that fatalities would peak “around 8 November.” [1-3] The timing was important because a peak at this time could not be explained by a second lockdown. In other words, the precautionary measures (i.e., tier systems) implemented prior to the second lockdown would have been more effective than generally assumed. [4] So what actually happened? At the time of writing, deaths peaked at 481 per day on 9 November (based on the seven day average of positive tests by date of death). [5] One might argue that dynamic causal modelling was accurate to within days; however, this would be a bit disingenuous. The seven day average looks as if it will peak about 10 days later—at around 450 deaths per day. This peak rate is higher than we had predicted (by a factor of three); although less than the thousands suggested by forecasts of unmitigated outcomes from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). [6,7]

Karl Friston and Anthony Costello: What we have learned from the second covid-19 surge?

Countries seeking to inoculate their citizens at the expense of everyone else are chasing a false promise.

Vaccine Nationalism Is Doomed to Fail

FDA Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine efficacy results are great, but aren't nearly as great as presented for severe infections. Everyone has seen fig below on cases in vaccine (blue) & placebo (red) over time. Thread.

The NCRC rapidly curates and assesses emerging research on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. This newsletter contains new reviews from the last two weeks. In This Week's Roundup: Long COVID, re-infection despite having a neutralizing antibody immune response, masks in the Midwest, and more.

Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that health care personnel be tested if they are symptomatic or have a known exposure to the coronavirus. But treating COVID-19 patients while wearing personal protective equipment doesn't count as exposure that warrants testing. A recent survey by National Nurses United, the nation's largest union of registered nurses, found just 42% of RNs in hospitals said they had ever been tested for the virus.

Think Health Care Workers Are Tested Often For The Coronavirus? Think Again

U of Vermont says announced cuts to the liberal arts are happening. The faculty says otherwise. The bigger story is one of how universities are seizing on COVID-19 to push through long-desired curricular and staffing reforms.

Not-So-Fait Accompli

The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine is safe and effective. It gives you the best protection against coronavirus.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine

Two health service workers experienced symptoms after receiving Pfizer vaccine

NHS told not to give Covid vaccine to those with history of allergic reactions

Experts on safer — and riskier — ways to see friends and family, keep kids busy, and give back in a raging pandemic.

You can survive winter and not spread Covid-19. Here’s how.

"At least we're not as bad as the States."Those were the words uttered by so many Canadians during the first wave of coronavirus, perhaps without malice although with a good dose of smugness.But that complacency may have helped fuel a deadly second wave in Canada that is now straining hospital capacity in nearly every region of the country as health officials impose more restrictions and lockdowns."What you're saying is we're better than the worst country in the world," says Amir Attaran, an American-raised Canadian professor of law and public health at the University of Ottawa during an interview with CNN.

Canada crushed the Covid-19 curve but complacency is fueling a deadly second wave

Joseph Rowntree Foundation study finds destitution was already rising pre-pandemic

Covid-driven recession likely to push 2m UK families into poverty

10.1257/aer.101.3.318

Policymakers increasingly use norm-based messages to promote conservation efforts. Despite the apparent success of such strategies, empirical analyses have thus far focused exclusively on short-run effects. From a policy perspective, however, whether and how such strategies influence behavior in the long-run is of equal interest. We partner with a metropolitan water utility to implement a natural field experiment examining the effect of such messages on longer-run patterns of water use. Empirical results are striking. While appeals to pro-social preferences affect short-run patterns of water use, only messages augmented with social comparisons have a lasting impact on water demand.

The Persistence of Treatment Effects with Norm-Based Policy Instruments: Evidence from a Randomized Environmental Policy Experiment

What is already known about this topic? Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are reported to be at risk for respiratory and nonrespiratory complications. What is added by this report? Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the Veterans Health Administration had a more than five times higher risk for in-hospital death and increased risk for 17 respiratory and nonrespiratory complications than did hospitalized patients with influenza. The risks for sepsis and respiratory, neurologic, and renal complications of COVID-19 were higher among non-Hispanic Black or African American and Hispanic patients than among non-Hispanic White patients. What are the implications for public health practice? Compared with influenza, COVID-19 is associated with increased risk for most respiratory and nonrespiratory complications. Certain racial and ethnic minority groups are disproportionally affected by COVID-19.

Risk for In-Hospital Complications Associated with COVID-19 and Influenza — Veterans Health Administration, United States, October 1, 2018–May 31, 2020

10.5334/joc.125

In mass media, the positions of science deniers and scientific-consensus advocates are repeatedly presented in a balanced manner. This false balance increases the spread of misinformation under the guise of objectivity. Weight-of-evidence strategies are an alternative, in which journalists lend weight to each position that is equivalent to the amount of evidence that supports the position. In public discussions, journalists can invite more advocates of scientific consensuses than science deniers (outnumbering) or they can employ warnings about the false-balance effect prior to the discussions (forewarning). In three pre-registered laboratory experiments, we tested the efficacy of outnumbering and forewarning as weight-of-evidence strategies to mitigate science deniers’ influence on individuals’ attitudes towards vaccination and their intention to vaccinate. We explored whether advocates’ responses to science deniers (rebuttal) and audiences’ issue involvement moderate the efficacy of these strategies. A total of N = 887 individuals indicated their attitudes towards vaccination and their intention to vaccinate before and after watching a television (TV) discussion. The presence and absence of forewarning, outnumbering and rebuttal were manipulated between subjects; participants also indicated their individual issue involvement. We obtained no evidence that outnumbering mitigates damage from denialism, even when advocates served as multiple sources. However, forewarning about the false-balance effect mitigated deniers’ negative effects. Moreover, the protective effect was independent of rebuttal and issue involvement. Thus, forewarnings can serve as an effective, economic and theory-driven strategy to counter science denialism in public discussions, at least for highly educated individuals such as university students.

Weight-of-Evidence Strategies to Mitigate the Influence of Messages of Science Denialism in Public Discussions

Psychological science is dominated by researchers from North America and Europe. The situation in Africa exemplifies this problem. In 2014, just 6 of 450 samples (1.4% of the total) in the journal Psychological Science were African. In Africa, language issues exacerbate the more general problem of underrepresentation; only 130 million out of 1.3 billion Africans are proficient in English, despite 24 out of the 54 countries having English as their official language.  We propose a paid translation service that can help overcome this problem. Our service will translate across many languages, but we will specialize in translations between English and African languages. Such a service can both help local African researchers access English-speaking people as research participants and allow English-speaking researchers to access over one billion Africans (~12% of the world population) as participants.

Proposing a PSA-affiliated paid translation service with a first focus on Africa

The idea of a normal Christmas is a "fiction" and Scots should prepare for digital celebrations, national clinical director Jason Leitch has said.

Covid: Scots told to prepare for 'digital Christmas'

10) The world is better, we are all better for an engaged, committed, creative USA, for your leadership, your generosity and your partnership. In recent years that has been harder, we have missed you & look forward to a new dawn.

9) I remember the Grand Challenges meeting in London Oct 2016, just before another US election. To all American friends & colleagues, think of course of USA when you vote, but also think of Americas & your role in the world.

8) Crisis has also shown what progress can be made by breaking down barriers, thru open sharing data & results, across borders & specialities. It is possible to disrupt traditional methods & not cut corners.We can speed up science,R&D, innovation & access. We can catalyse change.

Science has rarely been so in public eye for good & bad. Must acknowledge what science can do & what its limitations are. Humility is a central part of science. This will be true as we come thru current crisis & science will need to look critically at itself & be challenged

7) Science is part of political discourse and cannot be isolated from it. That can be a difficult. Pay tribute to all those who have stood up & be counted, arguing for truth, transparency, equity despite often personal cost & as some suffered threats & public vilification.

5) Science matters but has to be broader,inclusive, transparent. How we do things matters as much as what we do. Research culture & environment matters.6)Science does not exist in a vacuum, it is sustained by communities & society it must be an integral part of not detached from.

3) Multilateralism matters, will & can deliver. We have looked into the abyss of nationalism, & chose another path. 4) Global & national institutions, well governed, transparent & trusted - matter. We need to challenge them yes, but also protect & value them.

I believe that means 1) Investment prior to crisis contributes to capacity to prevent, prepare & respond. A shift from efficiency to resilience 2) Partnerships matter, partnerships forged over years, inclusive & equitable and providing value & benefits before a crisis.

Need to understand & address all these drivers and the consequences, not just the symptoms.

Such challenges impact across four concentric circles - 1) Direct Health consequences. 2) All other health concerns. 3) Inequality, Jobs, Livelihoods, Trust, Economies, trust between governed & the governing. Amplifying fault lines in all societies.

These are & will remain common in the 21stC hence these challenges have and will be more frequent, more complex & inter-related.

We have had multiple warnings from Nipah in 1999 to SARS-1, H5N1, Ebola, MERS, Zika, Chik, H1N1 & others. Many common drivers-Ecological change, changes in human:animal interactions, urbanisation, travel & trade. And in times of neglect of public health & geopolitical tensions.

This is the reality of COVID19 & will continue to be so. Focus on the drivers and perspective from the last 20 years.

People will be writing,discussing,considering COVID19 in 100yrs as we discuss pandemic 1918 now. We are living through history as it is being made. When read history books can seem romantic. It never is. It is tragic, confused,trade offs,painful,difficult & frightening. As now.

2010.10600

Twitter allows users to change their screen name and other profile attributes, which allows a malicious user to change their account's identity or purpose while retaining their followers. We present the first large scale and principled study of this phenomenon of misleading account repurposing on Twitter. We analyze two large datasets to understand account repurposing. We find 3,500 repurposed accounts in the Twitter Elections Integrity Datasets. We also find more than 100,000 accounts that have more than 5,000 followers and were active in the first six months of 2020 using Twitter's 1% real-time sample. We analyze a series of common features of repurposed accounts that give us insight into the mechanics of repurposing and into how accounts can come to be repurposed. We also analyze three online markets that facilitate selling and buying Twitter accounts to better understand the effect that repurposing has on the Twitter account market. We provide the dataset of popular accounts that are flagged as repurposed by our framework.

Misleading Repurposing on Twitter

Study links age and number of symptoms to lasting health problems from coronavirus

Women aged 50-60 at greatest risk of ‘long Covid’, experts suggest

Significant numbers believe in secret governing elite and that Covid was released on purpose

One in four Britons believe in QAnon-linked theories – survey

Italian province may impose curfew and reopen temporary hospitals in Milan and Bergamo

Lombardy coronavirus cases more than double in one day to 4,126

On this second day of #OAWeek2020 we like to declare a second #OpenScienceChampion: @MicheleNuijten, (co)developer of Statcheck, an open source statistics tool now used to check Covid-19 preprints for statistical errors, who advocates Open Science whenever possible at #TilburgU

In calendar week 42, clusters appear after private parties, but also again in old people's and nursing homes.

Epidemiological investigation Covid 19

Seeing Theory was created by Daniel Kunin while an undergraduate at Brown University. The goal of this website is to make statistics more accessible through interactive visualizations (designed using Mike Bostock’s JavaScript library D3.js).

Starting on Monday, Sweden's regional health authorities have increased powers to ask for stricter coronavirus recommendations in response to local outbreaks.

What you need to know about Sweden's new local coronavirus recommendations

Ar scáth a chéile a mhairimíd. #COVID19ireland #LockdownIreland #Level5

We were joined by Gwenetta Curry, a specialist in race ethnicity and health at the University of Edinburgh.

‘Bus drivers didn’t have adequate PPE even though they requested it’ – Edinburgh University’s Dr Gwenetta Curry

Professor Lucy Yardley, who is also a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) expert, was speaking on the Andrew Marr show

Bristol University professor fears people will be 'afraid' to report coronavirus symptoms due to huge fines

Good morning. Today the APPG on #Coronavirus will be hearing evidence on local lockdowns and exit strategy. Tune in at 11.30 #rapidinquiry Witnesses will include: @devisridhar @AliceWiseman11 @ReicherStephen @davidnabarro @Kevin_Fong

Sometimes medical tests return false positives, that means it gives a positive result even though you are not ill. So, what is the probability that you are ill given a positive result? This is something many people get wrong, as David describes.

David Spiegelhalter and False Positives

@BristolUni have put the lives of students and staff at risk by bringing students to halls, so we're calling a rent strike. These are our demands