272 Matching Annotations
  1. Jun 2021
  2. May 2021
    1. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “this is utterly bizarre: How would one conceptually even begin to determine a number by which the model overestimated unmitigated deaths. What is the comparison unmitigated ‘prediction’ to what actually happened supposed to mean?” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved May 1, 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384070393514790918

  3. Apr 2021
    1. Eric Topol on Twitter: “The variants of concern/interest fall into a spectrum of immune evasiveness, w/ B.1.351 being most; B.1.1.7, B.1.429 least. This property pertains to potential for reinfection & some reduction in vaccine efficacy My prelim estimates based on publications/preprints, subject to Δ https://t.co/fQZwBCUEGS” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2021, from https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1380203664317456385

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 it could be meaningful only vis a vis certain qualitative constraints: E.g., ‘look, model predicts fewer deaths for unmitigated than observed even with lockdown’ => model underpredicts.... But that’s very much not the scenario here [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384146492609372177

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2021, April 19). @ToddHorowitz3 so, given that no one can know the ‘unmitigated number’ what they seem to be calculating is in difference deaths given lockdown and model prediction without lockdown and calling that the ‘overestimate’—Which seems truly bizarre [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1384147188180082692

    1. Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) on Twitter: “Let’s talk about the background risk of CVST (cerebral venous sinus thrombosis) versus in those who got J&J vaccine. We are going to focus in on women ages 20-50. We are going to compare the same time period and the same disease (CVST). DEEP DIVE🧵 KEY NUMBERS!” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved April 15, 2021, from https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1382536833863651330

    1. Bleuler defined schizophrenia with his four ‘A’s’, referring to the blunted Affect (diminished emotional response to stimuli); loosening of Associations (by which he meant a disordered pattern of thought, inferring a cognitive deficit), Ambivalence (an apparent inability to make decisions, again suggesting a deficit of the integration and processing of incident and retrieved information) and Autism (a loss of awareness of external events, and a preoccupation with the self and one’s own thoughts)

      I stumbled upon this accidentally. I was going to add to my prediction that schizophrenia might be related to autism, but now that I've found this I need to publish my draft.

      Edit: Here was the prediction I wrote. Copied unmodified, ensuring transparency.

      March 28, 6:15pm Prediction: Some cases of schizophrenia are being misdiagnosed as autism. I recently took a Coursera.org course on schizophrenia. The negative symptoms look similar to some autism symptoms.

      Before I look it up, there are a few other predictions I should make. Do I think schizophrenia and autism will be linked? If there’s cross-diagnosis, will this link be artificial or real? Last time I looked, people with aspergers had (more or less) normal sleep EEGs. In contrast, schizophrenia is associated with disrupted sleep spindles. I already know that schizophrenia and bipolar are genetically linked, but I don’t know what the bipolar sleep EEG looks like. That is to say, I don’t know if the lack of sleep abnormality in autism is evidence against a link to schizophrenia. All in all, I predict that there will be a real link (for example, genetic), but I have a low confidence in this prediction. The reason is that I expect there is little EEG sleep changes in bipolar, implying that there is a supra-mechanism causing all these effects; somewhat like metabolic syndrome, the same cause may manifest in different ways.

    1. Using this data, a large international team was able to pinpoint 114 specific loci – locations in the human genome – that contribute to risk of both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and four genome regions that contribute to differences in the biology of the two disorders.

      This is exactly what I expected. In fact, I would have been extremely surprised if this weren't the case. I just google "schizophrenia bipolar genes" expecting this result.

      I had the thought a few minutes ago, and google it right away. This means that I wasn't able to write it down as a prediction. Nonetheless, I think this points in favor of my prediction abilities. My confidence was inordinately high (i.e. on the order of 90%) even before collecting any evidence. Compare that to other high confidence beliefs (e.g. CFS is caused partly by blood volume), for which I have confidence on the order of 95%, but I have good evidence for that belief. Thus, this instance provides data that my confidence meter is reliable. I'll continue to make an effort to write down predictions ahead of time (to eliminate publication bias).

      There are several reasons I suspected this would be the case. Firstly, personal subjective experience; that's what gave me the first inkling. Secondly, the connection of mania with long periods of sleeplessness. If the sleep deprivation causes the mania, then bipolar may be a sleep disorder. This is backed up by the sleep deprivation therapy for depression. Additionally, the connection of depression to sleep disturbance implies that sleep may also be causal in low mood. Furthermore, given that schizophrenia is associated with disrupted sleep spindles, it follows that the two sleep disorders, namely schizophrenia and bipolar, may be closely related genetically (via sleep regulating genes). Moreover, I knew that schizophrenia and bipolar were two of the most heritable psychological conditions; given that both are highly genetic and both involve sleep, it follows that they would likely be closely linked. Finally, I know mania can be associated with delusions, so there are several symptom crossovers. All in all, it is highly surprising that I have not seen this discussed before. Neither documentaries on schizophrenia nor documentaries on manic depression/bipolar have mentioned a link. Nor have studies I've read (admittedly few on this particular topic) mentioned anything of the sort. I shall have to look through the literature to see if this idea has been around for long.

  4. Mar 2021
    1. Nick Barrowman. (2021, March 26). Throughout the pandemic, a widespread inability to reason counterfactually has been on display. For example, some people apparently think lockdowns don’t work. They seem unable to imagine the situation had there not been a lockdown. Lockdowns are costly, but they work! [Tweet]. @nbarrowman. https://twitter.com/nbarrowman/status/1375240312264740870

    1. This NFT world is likely the greatest unlock of artist opportunity in 100+ years. This isn't a suboptimal or fringe version of the real-world art economy, it is a vastly improved one.

      its fascinating how this may be simulatenously true with the fact that NFTs in their current actual implementation are a scam.. eg regarding copyright, minting on other chains, NFT frozen to a specific URL, NFTs can be trasnferred off chain / OTC such that the 10% royalty doesnt happen, etc etc)

      what ive come to see is that the reality is it doesnt matter - people making decisions on their career or specific investments, this matters a lot

      .. but before people thinking of diving into this cuz it may be the next big thing for the next 20 years, then ya that's probably correct

      this is massive cuz a lot of the problems will be solved one by one methodically even if its crappy today, itll be improved steadily cuz we are good at developing, what were bad at is blank sheet

      cant believe im agreeing with this belsky guy

    1. Stefan Simanowitz. (2020, November 14). “Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb #COVID19. Don’t do what we did” write 25 leading Swedish scientists “Sweden’s approach to COVID has led to death, grief & suffering. The only example we’re setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease” https://t.co/azOg6AxSYH https://t.co/u2IqU5iwEn [Tweet]. @StefSimanowitz. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1327670787617198087

    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2020, December 8). I’ve been pondering failed predictions today. A spectacular error of mine: In the early media rush to listen to scientists and doctors, I actually thought Western societies might be seeing the end of the “influencer” and a renewed interest in people who did stuff 1/2 [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1336383952232308736

  5. Feb 2021
  6. Jan 2021
  7. Dec 2020
  8. Nov 2020
  9. Oct 2020
    1. Complexity, interconnectivity, novelty, & creation is beyond any single entity's ability to effectively forecast.
  10. Sep 2020
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