- Last 7 days
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Witte, E. H., Stanciu, A., & Zenker, F. (2020, October 28). A simple measure for the empirical adequacy of a theoretical construct. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/gdm
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Hanea, A., Wilkinson, D. P., McBride, M., Lyon, A., Ravenzwaaij, D. van, Thorn, F. S., Gray, C. T., Mandel, D. R., Willcox, A., Gould, E., Smith, E., Mody, F., Bush, M., Fidler, F., Fraser, H., & Wintle, B. (2021). Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/rxmh7
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Blakely, Tony, John Lynch, Koen Simons, Rebecca Bentley, and Sherri Rose. ‘Reflection on Modern Methods: When Worlds Collide—Prediction, Machine Learning and Causal Inference’. International Journal of Epidemiology 49, no. 6 (1 December 2020): 2058–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz132.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Sinclair, A. H., Hakimi, S., Stanley, M., Adcock, R. A., & Samanez-Larkin, G. (2021). Pairing Facts with Imagined Consequences Improves Pandemic-Related Risk Perception. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/53a9f
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- Jan 2021
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link.springer.com link.springer.com
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Brewer, N. T., Cuite, C. L., Herrington, J. E., & Weinstein, N. D. (2007). Risk compensation and vaccination: Can getting vaccinated cause people to engage in risky behaviors? Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 34(1), 95. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02879925
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Singh, M., Richie, R., & Bhatia, S. (2020, October 7). Representing and Predicting Everyday Behavior. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kb53h
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journals.plos.org journals.plos.org
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Parag. K. V., Donnelly. C. A., (2020) Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation. PLOS. Retrieved from https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007990
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- Dec 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Leblanc-Sirois, Y., Gagnon, M.-È., & Blanchette, I. (2020). Emotions, reasoning, and mental health as predictors of behavior during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2p39h
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Fluharty, M., Paul, E., & Fancourt, D. (2020). Predictors and patterns of gambling behaviour across the COVID-19 lockdown: Findings from a UK cohort study. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8qthw
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Karl Friston and Anthony Costello: What we have learned from the second covid-19 surge? (2020, December 8). The BMJ. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/12/08/karl-friston-and-anthony-costello-what-we-have-learned-from-the-second-covid-19-surge/
Tags
- prediction
- Bayesian
- forecast
- COVID-19
- is:blog
- second wave
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- inaccuracy
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Rocca, R., & Yarkoni, T. (2020). Putting psychology to the test: Rethinking model evaluation through benchmarking and prediction. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/e437b
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- Nov 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Fischer, R., & Karl, J. (2020). Predicting behavioral intentions to prevent or mitigate COVID-19: A meta-analysis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ek69g
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: The PyCascades package. ArXiv:2011.02031 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.02031
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github.com github.com
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Complexity, interconnectivity, novelty, & creation is beyond any single entity's ability to effectively forecast.
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Goldman Offers Less-Dire View of Pandemic’s U.S. Economic Damage. (2020, October 7). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/goldman-offers-less-dire-view-of-pandemic-s-u-s-economic-damage
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Thomas, K., & Rabin, R. C. (2020, October 4). Trump’s Treatment Suggests Severe Covid-19, Medical Experts Say. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/health/trump-covid-treatment.html
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- Sep 2020
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Wilkinson, Jack, Kellyn F. Arnold, Eleanor J. Murray, Maarten van Smeden, Kareem Carr, Rachel Sippy, Marc de Kamps, et al. ‘Time to Reality Check the Promises of Machine Learning-Powered Precision Medicine’. The Lancet Digital Health 0, no. 0 (16 September 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30200-4.
Tags
- machine learning
- algorithmic complexity
- clinical practice
- revolution
- improved diagnosis
- clinical science
- is:report
- personalised medical approach
- lang:en
- challenges
- prediction of individual responses
- electronic health database
- machine learning powered precision medicine
- collaboration
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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A pandemic is no time to cut the European Research Council’s funding. (2020). Nature, 585(7825), 323–324. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02620-x
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BBC Radio 4—The Life Scientific, Neil Ferguson on modelling Covid-19. (n.d.). BBC. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mt0h
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Beware comforting lies about a “herd immunity” Covid-19 strategy. Here’s why it’s dangerous – Professor Devi Sridhar. (n.d.). Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/covid-19-herd-immunity-strategy-flawed-until-we-have-coronavirus-vaccine-professor-devi-sridhar-2981017
Tags
- prediction
- antibody
- herd immunity
- safety
- strategy
- COVID-19
- uncertainty
- vaccine
- government response
- lang:en
- is:news
- epidemiology
- protection
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Saad-Roy, C. M., Wagner, C. E., Baker, R. E., Morris, S. E., Farrar, J., Graham, A. L., Levin, S. A., Mina, M. J., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2020). Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7343
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Report 13—Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries. (n.d.). Imperial College London. Retrieved September 18, 2020, from http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/
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Is the 4C Mortality Score fit for purpose? Some comments and concerns. (2020). https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3339/rr-3
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news.northeastern.edu news.northeastern.edu
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If rich countries monopolize COVID-19 vaccines, it could cause twice as many deaths as distributing them equally. (n.d.). Retrieved September 17, 2020, from https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/09/14/if-rich-countries-monopolize-covid-19-vaccines-it-could-cause-twice-as-many-deaths-as-distributing-them-equally/
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COVID-19. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
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COVID Projections Tracker. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://www.covid-projections.com/
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Team, I. C.-19 F., & Hay, S. I. (2020). COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. MedRxiv, 2020.07.12.20151191. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20151191
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Clifford, S., Quilty, B. J., Russell, T. W., Liu, Y., Chan, Y.-W. D., Pearson, C. A. B., Eggo, R. M., Endo, A., Group, C. C.-19 W., Flasche, S., & Edmunds, W. J. (2020). Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers. MedRxiv, 2020.07.24.20161281. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281
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techcrunch.com techcrunch.com
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9 top real estate and proptech investors: Cities and offices still have a future. (n.d.). TechCrunch. Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://social.techcrunch.com/2020/09/03/9-top-real-estate-and-proptech-investors-cities-and-offices-still-have-a-future/
Tags
- prediction
- labor market
- proptech
- post-pandemic
- survey
- COVID-19
- urban area
- investor
- workplace
- real estate
- lang:en
- is:news
- economy
- office
- government aid
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2020). Laypeople Can Predict Which Social-Science Studies Will Be Replicated Successfully: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245920919667
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onlinelibrary.wiley.com onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Traczyk, J., Fulawka, K., Lenda, D., & Zaleskiewicz, T. (n.d.). Consistency in probability processing as a function of affective context and numeracy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, n/a(n/a). https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2206
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Kermack–McKendrick theory. (2020). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kermack%E2%80%93McKendrick_theory&oldid=951835485
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www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
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Trump Rally Hands Scientists a Test Case for Superspreader Event. (2020, June 18). Bloomberg.Com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-18/trump-rally-gives-scientists-a-new-virus-laboratory
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www.hsph.harvard.edu www.hsph.harvard.edu
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Boston, 677 Huntington Avenue, & Ma 02115 +1495‑1000. (2020, March 4). Coronavirus (COVID-19): Press Conference with Marc Lipsitch, 03/04/20. News. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/coronavirus-covid-19-press-conference-with-marc-lipsitch-03-04-20/
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www.aei.org www.aei.org
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The Deep Dive with John Lettieri: What Adam Ozimek thinks about remote work, regional divergence, and the crisis facing American small businesses. (n.d.). American Enterprise Institute - AEI. Retrieved July 4, 2020, from https://www.aei.org/multimedia/the-deep-dive-what-adam-ozimek-thinks-about-remote-work-regional-divergence-and-the-crisis-facing-american-small-businesses/
Tags
- prediction
- impact
- COVID-19
- lang:en
- USA
- regional divergence
- is:webpage
- remote work
- podcast
- economy
- small business
Annotators
URL
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Emanuel, E. J., & Offit, P. A. (2020, June 8). Opinion | Could Trump Turn a Vaccine Into a Campaign Stunt? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus-vaccine.html
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Stix, G. (n.d.). Zoom Psychiatrists Prep for COVID-19’s Endless Ride. Scientific American. Retrieved June 9, 2020, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/zoom-psychiatrists-prep-for-covid-19s-endless-ride1/
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Spinney, L. (2020, May 31). Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: “Germany may have more immunological ‘dark matter.’” The Observer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter
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news.northeastern.edu news.northeastern.edu
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How network science models can predict the next stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. (n.d.). Retrieved June 10, 2020, from https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/05/14/how-network-science-models-can-predict-the-next-stages-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Tags
- prediction
- reopening
- network
- school
- COVID-19
- university
- interview
- modeling
- lang:en
- loosening restrictions
- is:news
- epidemiology
Annotators
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www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
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www.pmo.gov.sg www.pmo.gov.sg
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katherine_chen. (2020, June 17). PMO | National Broadcast by PM Lee Hsien Loong on 7 June 2020 [Text]. Prime Minister’s Office Singapore; katherine_chen. http://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/National-Broadcast-PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-COVID-19
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www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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R/BehSciMeta—Introducing “Horizon Scanning”—A new scibeh.org activity. (n.d.). Reddit. Retrieved June 11, 2020, from https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciMeta/comments/h0xhv8/introducing_horizon_scanning_a_new_scibehorg/
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epjdatascience.springeropen.com epjdatascience.springeropen.com
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Adelani, D. I., Kobayashi, R., Weber, I., & Grabowicz, P. A. (2020). Estimating community feedback effect on topic choice in social media with predictive modeling. EPJ Data Science, 9(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00243-w
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Blokland, I. V. van, Lanting, P., Ori, A. P., Vonk, J. M., Warmerdam, R. C., Herkert, J. C., Boulogne, F., Claringbould, A., Lopera-Maya, E. A., Bartels, M., Hottenga, J.-J., Ganna, A., Karjalainen, J., Study, L. C.-19 cohort, Initiative, T. C.-19 H. G., Hayward, C., Fawns-Ritchie, C., Campbell, A., Porteous, D., … Franke, L. H. (2020). Using symptom-based case predictions to identify host genetic factors that contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility. MedRxiv, 2020.08.21.20177246. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.21.20177246
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News, A. B. C. (n.d.). Getting COVID-19 and the flu at the same time: What are the risks? ABC News. Retrieved September 2, 2020, from https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-flu-time-risks/story?id=72520950
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- Aug 2020
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r/BehSciResearch—New research project on managing disagreement. (n.d.). Reddit. Retrieved July 27, 2020, from https://www.reddit.com/r/BehSciResearch/comments/hwjm0w/new_research_project_on_managing_disagreement/
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sridhar, D. (2020, June 11). Is the worst of the pandemic behind us? Here’s what scientists know | Devi Sridhar. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/11/pandemic-scientists-second-wave-coronavirus
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elemental.medium.com elemental.medium.com
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ScD, N. N. A. (2020, June 11). A Guide to Understanding Pandemic Predictions. Medium. https://elemental.medium.com/a-guide-to-understanding-pandemic-predictions-8ae3439b8224
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Menni, C., Valdes, A. M., Freidin, M. B., Sudre, C. H., Nguyen, L. H., Drew, D. A., ... & Visconti, A. (2020). Real-time tracking of self-reported symptoms to predict potential COVID-19. Nature Medicine, 1-4.
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Allen, M. (n.d.). Cellphone Data Shows How Las Vegas Is “Gambling With Lives” Across the Country. ProPublica. Retrieved August 24, 2020, from https://www.propublica.org/article/cellphone-data-shows-how-las-vegas-is-gambling-with-lives-across-the-country?token=e_IIJeE3oY9zIykeZdUxxAunfmrN8x1-
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Rose. (n.d.). The Very Big Sick. Flash Forward. Retrieved August 26, 2020, from https://www.flashforwardpod.com/2018/07/03/the-big-death/
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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Sajadi, M. M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., & Amoroso, A. (2020). Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19 (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3550308). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550308
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slatestarcodex.com slatestarcodex.com
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Wittgenstein writes: “The limits of my language mean the limits of my world”. Maybe he was trying to make a restrictive statement, one about how we can’t know the world beyond our language. But the reverse is also true; language and the world have the same boundaries. Learn language really well, and you understand reality. God is One, and His Name is One, and God is One with His Name. “Become good at predicting language” sounds like the same sort of innocent task as “become good at Go” or “become good at Starcraft”. But learning about language involves learning about reality, and prediction is the golden key. “Become good at predicting language” turns out to be a blank check, a license to learn every pattern it can.
Because language is an isomorphic mapping to the world, learning to predict language means you're learning to predict patterns that occur in the world.
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Whitney R. Robinson on Twitter: “1/ An #EpiTwitter 🧵 about theory... https://t.co/rSjfkHG21r” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/WhitneyEpi/status/1295522551892971520
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Auerbach, A. J., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Murphy, D. (2020). Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy (Working Paper No. 27366; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27366
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Shi, W., Wang, L., & Qin, J. (2020). Extracting user influence from ratings and trust for rating prediction in recommendations. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 13592. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70350-1
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Manski, C. F. (2020). Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests (Working Paper No. 27226; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27226
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Lin, P. Z., & Meissner, C. M. (2020). A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics (Working Paper No. 27119; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27119
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goodjudgment.io goodjudgment.io
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COVID Recovery Dashboard. Retrieved from https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1363 on 12/08/2020
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onlinelibrary.wiley.com onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Collins, G. S., & Wilkinson, J. (n.d.). Statistical issues in the development a COVID-19 prediction models. Journal of Medical Virology, n/a(n/a). https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26390
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Should Contact Bans Be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 8, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13151/
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meaningness.com meaningness.com
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In “the eggplant is a fruit,” probably what is meant is that all eggplants are fruits. In “the dog is a Samoyed,” probably what is meant is that some dog is a Samoyed. We can reasonably assume these meanings from our background understanding of their topics. This knowledge is nowhere in the sentence. The meaning depends on its parts—but not only on them.
It's common in speech coding (e.g. a vocoder) to rely on a thing that reconstructs the 'meaning' of a signal by predicting its 'full' representation.
This act of predicting then is also a form of compressing, by predicting the full representation from its lossy analogue you require less bandwidth to transmit messages just like if you'd used a non-stochastic compression technique.
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13257/
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Introducing JASP 0.11: The Machine Learning Module. (2019, September 24). JASP - Free and User-Friendly Statistical Software. https://jasp-stats.org/2019/09/24/introducing-jasp-0-11-the-machine-learning-module/
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Radicchi, F., & Bianconi, G. (2020). Epidemic plateau in critical SIR dynamics with non-trivial initial conditions. ArXiv:2007.15034 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics, q-Bio]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.15034
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BBC Radio 4—The Political School, Episode 1. (n.d.). BBC. Retrieved August 2, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000kv6v
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- Jul 2020
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Atkeson, A. (2020). How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate (Working Paper No. 26965; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26965
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Martin, G., Hanna, E., & Dingwall, R. (2020). Face masks for the public during Covid-19: An appeal for caution in policy [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uyzxe
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Pârvulescu, R. A. (2020). Engineering Your Judiciary, or How the COVID Crisis Won’t Go To Waste. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yrtfb
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science.sciencemag.org science.sciencemag.org
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Barton, C. M., Alberti, M., Ames, D., Atkinson, J.-A., Bales, J., Burke, E., Chen, M., Diallo, S. Y., Earn, D. J. D., Fath, B., Feng, Z., Gibbons, C., Hammond, R., Heffernan, J., Houser, H., Hovmand, P. S., Kopainsky, B., Mabry, P. L., Mair, C., … Tucker, G. (2020). Call for transparency of COVID-19 models. Science, 368(6490), 482.2-483. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb8637
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Díaz, R., & Cova, F. (2020, April 14). Moral values and trait pathogen disgust predict compliance with official recommendations regarding COVID-19 pandemic in US samples. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5zrqx
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Gelfand, M., Jackson, J. C., Pan, X., Nau, D., Dagher, M. M., & Chiu, C. (2020, April 1). Cultural and Institutional Factors Predicting the Infection Rate and Mortality Likelihood of the COVID-19 Pandemic. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/m7f8a
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Dr. Maarten van Smeden (2020, May 11). Understanding the statistics of the coronavirus. Universiteit Utrecht. https://www.sg.uu.nl/video/2020/06/understanding-statistics-coronavirus
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