【数据】极端情景下的GDP增长率预测达到惊人的15%，这意味着经济每4.5年翻一番，这种指数级增长预测远超历史任何技术革命，体现了模型对AI经济潜力的激进估计。

【数据】极端情景下的具体数据预测：AI将自主完成绝大多数知识工作，几乎不为人创造新的知识任务，这一预测反映了模型对AI能力发展的激进假设，值得验证。

https://archive.org/details/@rustle49?sort=title<br /> Scenario: The Magazine of Screenwriting Art (1995-1999)

Drei führende Klimawissenschaftler kritisieren die Illusion der "Net Zero-Politiken", die darauf setzen, das 1,5°-Ziel durch die Entfernung von CO2 aus der Atmosphäre zu erreichen. Sie werfen vielen ihrer KollegInnen vor, unrealistischen Konzepten nicht offen entgegenzutreten, um ihren politischen Einfluss nicht zu verlieren. Sie kritisieren auch die bisherigen Integrated Assessment Models des Weltklimarats, die von der Voraussetzung ausgehen würde, die Klimakatastrophe ließe sich mit marktwirtschaftlichen Mitteln beheben und fordern auf, deutlich zu sagen, dass sich eine Erhitzung der Erde auf 3 und mehr Grad nicht durch kleine Schritte, sondern nur durch einen Bruch mit dem bisherigen Wirtschaftssystem erreichen lässt.

Anstatt uns unseren Zweifeln zu stellen, beschlossen wir Wissenschaftler, immer aufwändigere Fantasiewelten zu konstruieren, in denen wir sicher wären. Der Preis, den wir für unsere Feigheit zahlen mussten: Wir mussten den Mund halten über die immer größer werdende Absurdität der geforderten Kohlendioxid-Entfernung im planetarischen Maßstab.

Greta Thunberg hat diesen Aufsatz als einen wichtigsten und informativsten Texte zur Klima- und ökologischen Krise bezeichnet.

Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap. Thread von Greta dazu auf Twitter: https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1385869663188492290

for - ASI scenario - adversary with trojan backdoor access

Das britische Climate Change Commitee beschreibt in seinem siebten Carbon Bürger Scenario https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/26/uk-urged-to-act-now-on-net-zero-two-kebabs-worth-of-meat-climate-change-committee

for - progress trap - dark futures scenario - like Easter Island but on a global scale

comment - The potential global breakdown of global industrialized society, rupturing supply chains so that our highly interdependent world becomes the very Achilles Heel that hastens its demise is chilling - It could mean a huge disruption to the most important aspect of civilization - the continuing accruing and inter-generational transmission of knowledge - It would be catastrophic to lose that, but it is entirely possible - As Wright himself famously said, to use a computer metaphor, we humans are like 50,000 year old hardware, running modern software - By that, he meant that our cognitive physiology (brain and sensory processing system) has not changed for tens of thousands of years, yet cultural evolution happens at exponentially faster rates, so much so that our biological systems are not adapted to keep up with the pace, and that spells disaster - When we no longer have the sensory or cognitive apparatus to sense danger, and we are offloading that to AI, we are in an extremely vulnerable situation

progress trap - Gedanken - Think of our ancestors from 50,000 years ago. - What Wright is saying with his metaphor is that if that child from 50,000 years ago were transported by a time machine to modernity, (s)he would have little problem integrating into modern society - LIKEWISE, if we lose all the knowledge fruits of accumulated over so many thousands of years, it would be like being born into a human tribe 50,000 years ago. - We would likely still have language, but all our technology may have to start from scratch!

for - key insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - dictator controlling superintelligence

meet insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - locked in dictatorship controlling superintelligence - millions of AI controlled robotic law and enforcement agents could police their populace - Mass surveillance would be hypercharged - Dictator loyal AI agents could individually assess every single citizen for descent with near perfect lie detection sensor - rooting out any disloyalty e - Essentially - the robotic military and police force could be wholly controlled by a single political leader and - programmed to be perfectly obedient and there's going to be no risks of coups or rebellions and - his strategy is going to be perfect because he has super intelligence behind them - what does a look like when we have super intelligence in control by a dictator ? - there's simply no version of that where you escape literally - past dictatorships were not permanent but - superintelligence could eliminate any historical threat to a dictator's Rule and - lock in their power - If you believe in freedom and democracy this is an issue because - someone in power, - even if they're good - they could still stay in power - but you still need the freedom and democracy to be able to choose - This is why the Free World must Prevail so - there is so much at stake here that - This is why everyone is not taking this into account

for - AI evolution - nightmare scenario - US govt may seize Open AI assets if it arrives at superintelligence

AI evolution - projection - US govt may seize Open AI assets if it arrives at superintelligence - He makes a good point here - If Open AI, or Google achieve superintelligence that is many times more intelligent than any human, - the US government would be fearful that they could be overthrown or that the technology can be stolen and fall into the wrong hands

for - progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario

progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario - Whoever is the first to control superintelligence will possibly have enough power to - seize control from pre superintelligence forces - even without the robots small civilization of superintelligence would be able to - hack any undefended military election television system and cunningly persuade generals electoral and economically out compete nation states - design new synthetic bioweapons and then - pay a human in Bitcoin to synthetically synthesize it

Die erste Komponente des Erdsystems ist durch die Klimakrise für immer verloren. Das arktische Sommereis wird von den kommenden Jahrzehnten an im September vollständig schmelzen. Dazu wird es auch kommen, wenn es gelingt, die Treibhausgasemissionen radikal zu reduzieren. Das ergibt eine Studie, die die Messungen der letzten Jahre berücksichtigt.

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/06/too-late-now-to-save-arctic-summer-ice-climate-scientists-find

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/larctique-pourrait-etre-prive-de-glace-de-mer-en-ete-des-2030-une-decennie-plus-tot-que-les-projections-du-giec-20230606_NOXVJMVYQJAHXCA6XUDU3RE6J4/

Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

for - climate crisis - food production impacts - stats - high emissions scenario -food production

stats - high emissions scenario - over 30% of food crop production and animal production impacted - mostly around equator

Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea

In der Repubblica stellt Jaime d'Alessandro fest, dass Italien dabei ist, den Kampf um ein neues Energiesystem und damit auch eine Erneuerung der Wirtschaft zu verlieren. Seit den 90ern befinde sich das Land im Stillstand. D'Alessandro beruft sich auf Studien zur besonderen Betroffenheit des Mittelmeerraums von der globalen Erhitzung und zur schon bald bevorstehenden Eisfreiheit der Arktis. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2023/11/01/news/decarbonizzazione_greenblue_novembre-418935623/

Studie zur eisfreien Arktis: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

Studie zur Erhitzung in Europa: doi:10.2760/93257

"Specifically, when one of my classmates stated how he was struggling with the concept and another one of my classmates took the initiative to clarify it, I realized that that individual possibilities vary greatly among students."

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Julis Steinberger's thread about the numbers of potential victims of global warming, Important remarks and important links.

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Sherrard-Smith, E., Hogan, A. B., Hamlet, A., Watson, O. J., Whittaker, C., Winskill, P., Ali, F., Mohammad, A. B., Uhomoibhi, P., Maikore, I., Ogbulafor, N., Nikau, J., Kont, M. D., Challenger, J. D., Verity, R., Lambert, B., Cairns, M., Rao, B., Baguelin, M., … Churcher, T. S. (2020). The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. Nature Medicine, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y

COVID Recovery Dashboard. Retrieved from https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1363 on 12/08/2020

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Aleta, A., Arruda, G. F. de, & Moreno, Y. (2020). Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks. PLOS Computational Biology, 16(7), e1008035. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008035

Atkeson, A., Kopecky, K., & Zha, T. (2020). Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model (Working Paper No. 27335; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27335

Azad, A. (2020, May 22). CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don’t have symptoms. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

COVID-19 Modeling: Italy

Gollwitzer, M., Platzer, C., Zwarg, C., & Göritz, A. S. (2020, April 14). Public Acceptance of Potential Covid-19 Lockdown Scenarios. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3a85z

Nguyen, C. T., Saputra, Y. M., Van Huynh, N., Nguyen, N.-T., Khoa, T. V., Tuan, B. M., Nguyen, D. N., Hoang, D. T., Vu, T. X., Dutkiewicz, E., Chatzinotas, S., & Ottersten, B. (2020). Enabling and Emerging Technologies for Social Distancing: A Comprehensive Survey. ArXiv:2005.02816 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02816

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