• for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
• question
  • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?

• for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
• policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds

• for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
• title
  • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
• authors
  • Nikos Nikiforakis
  • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni

• 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
• depending on the variables of the context
• = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?

• going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm

• = 25% Social Tipping Point
• A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
• but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
• abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm

• = weak ties

• = complex contagion
  • example: climate change norms

This is true since I can relate to this because I once only cared about getting the question answered, the word count, sentences and correct grammar before submitting my written work. However, that has changed in me because know I feel that I can dig deeper with my writing and be able to connect to the audience I am addressing to.

Understanding your goal as a writer is really important. In order to so you have to know your audience, topic, your connection to the topic you're writing about and background research. Without these key pieces it would be hard to be a more reflective writer.

I agree because like trying to go to the gym daily to stay healthy and fit, writing in a way is similar because with practice you can get better with it. Without consistent practice there won’t be any beneficial progress for us writers.

Going all out on technological salvation is a form of climate denialism.

We are at 1.2 Deg C and emissions have climbed after rebounding after Covid. If they flatline for the next nine years, we will hit 1.5 Deg C.

Title: We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C Author: James Dyke Date: 6 July 2022

Dan Freedman, DO. (2022, February 19). No, the CDC did not quietly revise language development guidelines to hide mask induced delays. This is misinformation. The change is based on a 15 year update on the 2004 recs & a lit review performed in 2019 with the explicit goal of identifying higher risk kids. 1/ https://t.co/TlV76bIb7n [Tweet]. @dfreedman7. https://twitter.com/dfreedman7/status/1494846691752751104

Camero, K. (n.d.). If You Think You Have COVID But Your Rapid Test Is Negative, Here’s Why. BuzzFeed News. Retrieved February 4, 2022, from https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/negative-covid-test

Kan, U., Feng, M., & Porter, M. A. (2021). An Adaptive Bounded-Confidence Model of Opinion Dynamics on Networks. ArXiv:2112.05856 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.05856

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD. (2021, October 2). Everyone keeps talking about covid becoming endemic, but as I listen to the conversation, it’s becoming more & more clear to me that very few of you know what “endemic” means. So here’s a thread on how pandemics end. Https://t.co/uuYinUcynb [Tweet]. @EpiEllie. https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1444088804961304581

Andersson, P., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2021). The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b2qx8

Ingale, M., & Shekatkar, S. M. (2020). Resource dependency and survivability in complex networks. Physical Review E, 102(6), 062304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.062304

David Dowdy on Twitter: “One term I worry that we (as a public health community) have mis-messaged during the pandemic: ‘herd immunity threshold’ A non-technical thread on why this is not ‘% of the population that needs to be vaccinated for us to return to life as normal while eradicating COVID-19’... Https://t.co/5As4N9YV9N” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/davidwdowdy/status/1389791544425828357?s=20

• number of simultaneous connections (peak and average)

• the message rate/payload size.

Drei führenden Klimawissenschaftler *kritisieren die Illusion der "Net Zero-Politiken", die darauf setzen, das 1,5°-Ziel durch die Entfernung von CO2" aus der Atmosphäre zu erreichen. Sie werfen vielen ihrher KollegInnen vor, unrealistischen Konzepten nicht offen entgegenzutreten, um ihren politischen Einfluss nicht zu verlieren. Sie kritisieren auch die bisherigen Integrated Assessment Models des Weltklimarats, die von der Voraussetzung ausgehen würde, die Klimakatastrophe ließe sich mit marktwirtschaftlichen Mitteln beheben und fordern auf, deutlich zu sagen, dass sich eine Erhitzung der Erde auf 3 und mehr Grad nicht durch kleine Schritte, sondern nur durch einen Bruch mit dem bisherigen Wirtschaftssystem erreichen läßt.

Anstatt uns unseren Zweifeln zu stellen, beschlossen wir Wissenschaftler, immer aufwändigere Fantasiewelten zu konstruieren, in denen wir sicher wären. Der Preis, den wir für unsere Feigheit zahlen mussten: Wir mussten den Mund halten über die immer größer werdende Absurdität der geforderten Kohlendioxid-Entfernung im planetarischen Maßstab.

Greta Thunberg hat diesen Aufsatz als einen wichtigsten und informativsten Texte zur Klima- und ökologischen Krise bezeichnet.

Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap. Thread von Greta dazu auf Twitter: https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1385869663188492290

Stefan Rahmstorf stellt die Argumentationen dafür zusammen, dass es noch nicht unmöglich ist, das 1,5°-Ziel noch zu erreichen ist. Klima-Krise: Die neue Verwirrung um das 1,5-Grad-Ziel - DER SPIEGEL. Etwas ausführlichere Darstellung ausgehend von zwei Grafiken: Zwei Grafiken zeigen den Weg zu 1,5 Grad » KlimaLounge » SciLogs - Wissenschaftsblogs. Die Argumentation bezieht sich auf die Stellungnahme der Australischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, die feststellt, dass das 1,5°-Ziel "virtuell uneirrechbar" sei: The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world | Australian Academy of Science

Ein neuer Report des australischen Climate Council kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die 1,5°-Grenze "virtuell sicher" überschritten werden wird, mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit in den 2030er Jahren. Will Steffen, einer der bekanntesten Klimawissenschaftler und Mitautor wichtiger Studien über die Tipping Points, ruft dazu auf, mit aller Energie um jedes Zehntelgrad zu kämpfen. Failure is not an option. Australia must radically scale up its climate targets now | Climate change | The Guardian

Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.

H, Yu, Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, et al. “Can a COVID-19 Vaccination Program Guarantee the Return to a Pre-Pandemic Lifestyle?,” February 9, 2021. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-200069/v1.

Mancastroppa. M., Burioni. R., Colizza. V., Vezzani. A., (2020). Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks. APS Physics. Retrieved from: https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.020301

Chen, Q., & Porter, M. A. (2020). Epidemic Thresholds of Infectious Diseases on Tie-Decay Networks. ArXiv:2009.12932 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.12932

Humphries, R., Mulchrone, K., Tratalos, J., More, S., & Hövel, P. (2020). A Systematic Framework of Modelling Epidemics on Temporal Networks. ArXiv:2009.11965 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.11965

A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity. (2020, September 24). Science News. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-brazil-city-manaus-herd-immunity

Pausal Živference on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://twitter.com/PausalZ/status/1309208611265093632

Daniël Lakens on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/lakens/status/1308115862247952386

Bababekov, Y. J., Hung, Y.-C., Hsu, Y.-T., Udelsman, B. V., Mueller, J. L., Lin, H.-Y., Stapleton, S. M., & Chang, D. C. (2019). Is the Power Threshold of 0.8 Applicable to Surgical Science?—Empowering the Underpowered Study. Journal of Surgical Research, 241, 235–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2019.03.062

Peter English #FBPE on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2020, from https://twitter.com/petermbenglish/status/1296730819420196864

Mandavilli, A. (2020, August 17). What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Ran, Y., Deng, X., Wang, X., & Jia, T. (2020). A generalized linear threshold model for an improved description of the spreading dynamics. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(8), 083127. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0011658

Aguas, R., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Goncalves, G., Ferreira, M. U., & Gomes, M. G. M. (2020). Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. MedRxiv, 2020.07.23.20160762. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762

Aleta, A., Arruda, G. F. de, & Moreno, Y. (2020). Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks. PLOS Computational Biology, 16(7), e1008035. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008035

A Marm Kilpatrick on Twitter: “What is #herdimmunity threshold for #COVID19? A topic of much discussion due to large uncertainty & huge consequences for long term impact. New paper illustrates 1 key aspect that can reduce it substantially (spoiler: we still don’t know value). Thread. https://t.co/Sgrg1yrlOq” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 27, 2020, from https://twitter.com/diseaseecology/status/1275595167936868352

Gomes, M. G. M., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Langwig, K. E., Souto-Maior, C., Carneiro, J., Goncalves, G., Penha-Goncalves, C., Ferreira, M. U., & Aguas, R. (2020). Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. MedRxiv, 2020.04.27.20081893. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893

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Mohseni-Kabir, A., Pant, M., Towsley, D., Guha, S., & Swami, A. (2020). Percolation Thresholds for Robust Network Connectivity. ArXiv:2006.14496 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14496

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This article explores how technology has become the new standard for higher education and this new standard has created a need to develop new concepts on how to view a subject. Additionally, methods to use educational technology resources are described. Rating: 5/5

Definition of Threshold Concept

Does this then "infect" other Bounded Spaces with Economic concepts? In other words, this idea of "Threshold concepts" works for Economics, but maybe profoundly changes other disciplines into something other than what they are?

adjacent possible?