- Jul 2022
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bylinetimes.com bylinetimes.com
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So what can we make of politicians who continue to argue that ‘1.5°C is still alive’? Are they misinformed or are they simply lying?I believe many are in denial about the types of solutions the climate crisis demands. Rather than do the – admittedly – very difficult political work of eking out our supplies of fossil fuels while accelerating a just transition to post-carbon societies, politicians are going all out on technological salvation. This is a new form of climate denial, which involves imagining large-scale carbon dioxide removal that will clean up the carbon pollution that we continue to pump into the atmosphere. While it may seem much safer to stick to the script and say that it is still physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C, while pointing out that the scale of change demands much more political will, I believe that this can no longer be a credible response to the climate crisis.We have warmed the climate by 1.2°C since pre-industrial periods. If emissions stay flat at current levels, then in around nine years the carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted. And, of course, emissions are not flat – they are surging. 2021 saw the second-largest annual increase ever recorded, driven by the rebound in economic activity after Coronavirus lockdowns. We did not ‘build back better’.The clock has been stuck at five minutes to midnight for decades. Alarms have been continuing to sound. There are only so many times you can hit the snooze button.
Going all out on technological salvation is a form of climate denialism.
We are at 1.2 Deg C and emissions have climbed after rebounding after Covid. If they flatline for the next nine years, we will hit 1.5 Deg C.
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We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C
Title: We Need to Stop Pretending we can Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C Author: James Dyke Date: 6 July 2022
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dan Freedman, DO. (2022, February 19). No, the CDC did not quietly revise language development guidelines to hide mask induced delays. This is misinformation. The change is based on a 15 year update on the 2004 recs & a lit review performed in 2019 with the explicit goal of identifying higher risk kids. 1/ https://t.co/TlV76bIb7n [Tweet]. @dfreedman7. https://twitter.com/dfreedman7/status/1494846691752751104
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www.buzzfeednews.com www.buzzfeednews.com
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Camero, K. (n.d.). If You Think You Have COVID But Your Rapid Test Is Negative, Here’s Why. BuzzFeed News. Retrieved February 4, 2022, from https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/negative-covid-test
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- Dec 2021
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Kan, U., Feng, M., & Porter, M. A. (2021). An Adaptive Bounded-Confidence Model of Opinion Dynamics on Networks. ArXiv:2112.05856 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2112.05856
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- Nov 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD. (2021, October 2). Everyone keeps talking about covid becoming endemic, but as I listen to the conversation, it’s becoming more & more clear to me that very few of you know what “endemic” means. So here’s a thread on how pandemics end. Https://t.co/uuYinUcynb [Tweet]. @EpiEllie. https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1444088804961304581
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- Oct 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Andersson, P., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2021). The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/b2qx8
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- Jul 2021
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Ingale, M., & Shekatkar, S. M. (2020). Resource dependency and survivability in complex networks. Physical Review E, 102(6), 062304. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.062304
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twitter.com twitter.com
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David Dowdy on Twitter: “One term I worry that we (as a public health community) have mis-messaged during the pandemic: ‘herd immunity threshold’ A non-technical thread on why this is not ‘% of the population that needs to be vaccinated for us to return to life as normal while eradicating COVID-19’... Https://t.co/5As4N9YV9N” / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2021, from https://twitter.com/davidwdowdy/status/1389791544425828357?s=20
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- Jun 2021
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We should think about the number of simultaneous connections (peak and average) and the message rate/payload size. I think, the threshold to start thinking about AnyCable (instead of just Action Cable) is somewhere between 500 and 1000 connections on average or 5k-10k during peak hours.
number of simultaneous connections (peak and average)
the message rate/payload size.
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- May 2021
- Apr 2021
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Drei führenden Klimawissenschaftler *kritisieren die Illusion der "Net Zero-Politiken", die darauf setzen, das 1,5°-Ziel durch die Entfernung von CO2" aus der Atmosphäre zu erreichen. Sie werfen vielen ihrher KollegInnen vor, unrealistischen Konzepten nicht offen entgegenzutreten, um ihren politischen Einfluss nicht zu verlieren. Sie kritisieren auch die bisherigen Integrated Assessment Models des Weltklimarats, die von der Voraussetzung ausgehen würde, die Klimakatastrophe ließe sich mit marktwirtschaftlichen Mitteln beheben und fordern auf, deutlich zu sagen, dass sich eine Erhitzung der Erde auf 3 und mehr Grad nicht durch kleine Schritte, sondern nur durch einen Bruch mit dem bisherigen Wirtschaftssystem erreichen läßt.
Anstatt uns unseren Zweifeln zu stellen, beschlossen wir Wissenschaftler, immer aufwändigere Fantasiewelten zu konstruieren, in denen wir sicher wären. Der Preis, den wir für unsere Feigheit zahlen mussten: Wir mussten den Mund halten über die immer größer werdende Absurdität der geforderten Kohlendioxid-Entfernung im planetarischen Maßstab.
Greta Thunberg hat diesen Aufsatz als einen wichtigsten und informativsten Texte zur Klima- und ökologischen Krise bezeichnet.
Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap. Thread von Greta dazu auf Twitter: https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1385869663188492290
Tags
- medium:commentary
- researcher:JamesDyke
- process:mitigation
- parameter:temperature
- threshold:1.5°
- time:2015-2100
- researcher:RobertWatson
- activity:CCS
- activity:BECCS
- concerned:negative-emissions
- researcher:WolfgangKnorr
- policy:netzero
- activity:geoengineering
- concerned:overshoot-scenario
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www.spiegel.de www.spiegel.de
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Stefan Rahmstorf stellt die Argumentationen dafür zusammen, dass es noch nicht unmöglich ist, das 1,5°-Ziel noch zu erreichen ist. Klima-Krise: Die neue Verwirrung um das 1,5-Grad-Ziel - DER SPIEGEL. Etwas ausführlichere Darstellung ausgehend von zwei Grafiken: Zwei Grafiken zeigen den Weg zu 1,5 Grad » KlimaLounge » SciLogs - Wissenschaftsblogs. Die Argumentation bezieht sich auf die Stellungnahme der Australischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, die feststellt, dass das 1,5°-Ziel "virtuell uneirrechbar" sei: The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world | Australian Academy of Science
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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The Climate Council’s new report, released today, shows the immense cost of this inaction. It is now virtually certain Earth will pass the critical 1.5℃ temperature rise this century – most likely in the 2030s.
Ein neuer Report des australischen Climate Council kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die 1,5°-Grenze "virtuell sicher" überschritten werden wird, mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit in den 2030er Jahren. Will Steffen, einer der bekanntesten Klimawissenschaftler und Mitautor wichtiger Studien über die Tipping Points, ruft dazu auf, mit aller Energie um jedes Zehntelgrad zu kämpfen. Failure is not an option. Australia must radically scale up its climate targets now | Climate change | The Guardian
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- Mar 2021
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Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.
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- Feb 2021
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europepmc.org europepmc.org
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H, Yu, Yang J, Marziano V, Deng X, Guzzetta G, Zhang J, Trentini F, et al. “Can a COVID-19 Vaccination Program Guarantee the Return to a Pre-Pandemic Lifestyle?,” February 9, 2021. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-200069/v1.
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- Dec 2020
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link.aps.org link.aps.org
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Mancastroppa. M., Burioni. R., Colizza. V., Vezzani. A., (2020). Active and inactive quarantine in epidemic spreading on adaptive activity-driven networks. APS Physics. Retrieved from: https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.020301
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- Sep 2020
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Chen, Q., & Porter, M. A. (2020). Epidemic Thresholds of Infectious Diseases on Tie-Decay Networks. ArXiv:2009.12932 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.12932
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Humphries, R., Mulchrone, K., Tratalos, J., More, S., & Hövel, P. (2020). A Systematic Framework of Modelling Epidemics on Temporal Networks. ArXiv:2009.11965 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.11965
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www.sciencenews.org www.sciencenews.org
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A Brazilian city devastated by COVID-19 may have reached herd immunity. (2020, September 24). Science News. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-brazil-city-manaus-herd-immunity
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Pausal Živference on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://twitter.com/PausalZ/status/1309208611265093632
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Daniël Lakens on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/lakens/status/1308115862247952386
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- Aug 2020
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www.journalofsurgicalresearch.com www.journalofsurgicalresearch.com
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Bababekov, Y. J., Hung, Y.-C., Hsu, Y.-T., Udelsman, B. V., Mueller, J. L., Lin, H.-Y., Stapleton, S. M., & Chang, D. C. (2019). Is the Power Threshold of 0.8 Applicable to Surgical Science?—Empowering the Underpowered Study. Journal of Surgical Research, 241, 235–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jss.2019.03.062
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Peter English #FBPE on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2020, from https://twitter.com/petermbenglish/status/1296730819420196864
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www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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Mandavilli, A. (2020, August 17). What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Ran, Y., Deng, X., Wang, X., & Jia, T. (2020). A generalized linear threshold model for an improved description of the spreading dynamics. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30(8), 083127. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0011658
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Aguas, R., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Goncalves, G., Ferreira, M. U., & Gomes, M. G. M. (2020). Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics. MedRxiv, 2020.07.23.20160762. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762
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journals.plos.org journals.plos.org
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Aleta, A., Arruda, G. F. de, & Moreno, Y. (2020). Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks. PLOS Computational Biology, 16(7), e1008035. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008035
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- Jun 2020
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twitter.com twitter.com
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A Marm Kilpatrick on Twitter: “What is #herdimmunity threshold for #COVID19? A topic of much discussion due to large uncertainty & huge consequences for long term impact. New paper illustrates 1 key aspect that can reduce it substantially (spoiler: we still don’t know value). Thread. https://t.co/Sgrg1yrlOq” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved June 27, 2020, from https://twitter.com/diseaseecology/status/1275595167936868352
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Gomes, M. G. M., Corder, R. M., King, J. G., Langwig, K. E., Souto-Maior, C., Carneiro, J., Goncalves, G., Penha-Goncalves, C., Ferreira, M. U., & Aguas, R. (2020). Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold. MedRxiv, 2020.04.27.20081893. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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covid-19_poster
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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covid-19_poster
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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covid-19_poster
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papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com
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covid-19_poster
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Mohseni-Kabir, A., Pant, M., Towsley, D., Guha, S., & Swami, A. (2020). Percolation Thresholds for Robust Network Connectivity. ArXiv:2006.14496 [Cond-Mat, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14496
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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covid-19_poster
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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covid-19_poster
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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covid-19_poster
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www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
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covid-19_poster
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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covid-19_poster
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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covid-19_poster
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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covid-19_poster
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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covid-19_poster
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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covid-19_poster
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Access through your institutionto view subscribed content from home OutlineDownload full text in PDFDownloadShareExportAdvancedOutlineAbstractKeywordsDiagnostic Microbiology and Infectious DiseaseAvailable online 11 June 2020, 115109In Press, Journal Pre-proofWhat are Journal Pre-proof articles?Heat inactivation decreases the Qualitative
covid-19_poster
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www.gene-quantification.de www.gene-quantification.deSections1
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t is important that the threshold is set at a fixed level for all samples that are to be compared
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- Dec 2019
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swiftodoapp.com swiftodoapp.com
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What are threshold dates? A threshold date indicates that a task should not be started until the threshold date. Adding threshold dates is a way to indicate "future tasks". A threshold date is formatted as: t:yyyy-mm-dd.
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github.com github.com
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Hide tasks containing a date threshold (t:YYYY-MM-DD) until the specified point in the future.
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github.com github.com
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filter incoming lines based on date threshold hides tasks marked with a date threshold ("t:YYYY-MM-DD") in the future
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play.google.com play.google.com
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threshold dates
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- Nov 2018
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er.educause.edu er.educause.edu
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Educational Technology Leadership and Practice in Higher Education: The Emergence of Threshold Concepts
This article explores how technology has become the new standard for higher education and this new standard has created a need to develop new concepts on how to view a subject. Additionally, methods to use educational technology resources are described. Rating: 5/5
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- Feb 2018
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www.facultyfocus.com www.facultyfocus.com
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“A threshold concept can be considered as akin to a portal, opening up a new and previously inaccessible way of thinking about something.” (p. 1)
Definition of Threshold Concept
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They proposed the idea based on a round of interviews with economics faculty members.
Does this then "infect" other Bounded Spaces with Economic concepts? In other words, this idea of "Threshold concepts" works for Economics, but maybe profoundly changes other disciplines into something other than what they are?
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- Sep 2016
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courses.edx.org courses.edx.org
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that already today begins to connectwith future possibilities that maybe we can bring into reality
adjacent possible?
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