for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details

paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository

summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting

from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/

for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated

article details - title - Overselling the Science of Social Tipping Points - author - Peter Licari, PhD - date - 11 Jjune, 2018 - publication - Medium - https://prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32

from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated - https://hyp.is/yMaQND7WEe-Q2zsiwzB5wA/jamesozden.substack.com/p/social-tipping-points-are-probably

for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points

comment - The author raises valid critique of Centola's 25% threshold. - His main critique concerns the experiment not representing real world complex scenarios and is summarized in 3 points: - The experimental method used is an oversimplification of the complexity of real world complex issues such as climate change denial and meat eating, which are deeply ingrained beliefs in many cases. - No such attachment exists in the experimental setup - In the experiment, the subjects were incentified. In complex real world issues, there is often no incentive structure - Real life isn't all 1-1 interactions

to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points - https://hyp.is/Aocs0D7WEe-knadNGOYVog/prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32

• for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
• question
  • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?

• for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
• policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds

• for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
• title
  • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
• authors
  • Nikos Nikiforakis
  • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni

• 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
• depending on the variables of the context
• = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?

• going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm

• = 25% Social Tipping Point
• A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
• but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
• abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm

• = weak ties

• = complex contagion
  • example: climate change norms