8 Matching Annotations
- Aug 2023
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there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
- for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
- question
- is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
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Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
- for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
- policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
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- for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
- title
- Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
- authors
- Nikos Nikiforakis
- Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
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- Feb 2023
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penntoday.upenn.edu penntoday.upenn.edu
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real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
- 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
- depending on the variables of the context
- = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
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“And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
- going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm
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When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
- = 25% Social Tipping Point
- A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
- but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
- abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm
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www.google.com www.google.com
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06:06Weak Ties
- = weak ties
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25:13Complex Contagions
- = complex contagion
- example: climate change norms
- = complex contagion
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