41 Matching Annotations
  1. Dec 2023
    1. What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
      • for: key point: alternative COP - breakaway group of nations, quote - alternative COP

      • quote

        • What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
      • author: Rupert Read
      • date: Dec 4, 2021

      • comment

      • suggestion
        • This could very well work. By applying social tipping point theory, a coalition of the willing could potentially accomplish a lot more than a coalition mired in friction.
        • There is enough capacity between 100 nation states willing to take far more aggressive measures than what a few petrostates of the COP convention continuously veto that it could bring about a social tipping point.
    1. Rupert Read has the best idea I have heard re international climate negotiations: countries that are serious should have their own conference where they collaborate on strong targets, plans, etc. Part of which should be recognising the dangers of remaining reliant on the petrostates, planning to transcend that reliance and sanctioning them
      • for: good idea - COP alternative, COP alternative - coalition of the willing, COP alternative - social tipping point, Rupert Read - alternative to COP

      • good idea: COP alternative

        • This could work based on the principle of social tipping points
        • The current COP pits the powerful incumbents of the old system delaying as long as possible rapid system change, these are the conservatives
          • This puts the liberals at distinct disadvantage from the conservatives because in a consensus reached agreement, the conservatives can veto any strong and binding language that represents rapid system change
        • In an alternative conference where the 100+ nation states are already in agreement, action in this smaller coalition OF THE WILLING, will lead to rapid action.
        • This could lead to breaking the threshold of system change via reaching the 25% social tipping point threshold
      • question: alternative COP

        • If an alternative COP was held, is the nation state the best level to approach?
        • What about a city level COP?
      • reference

      • for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors

      • title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

      • author: Manjana Miikoreit
      • date: Nov 17, 2022

      • abstract

        • The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
          • understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
        • A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
        • In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
          • climate tipping points and
          • ecological regime shifts–
        • STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
        • Drawing on
          • a well-established definition for tipping points, and
          • a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
        • this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
          • (i) premature labeling,
          • (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
          • (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
          • (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
        • Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
        • Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
          • the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
          • future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
        • Future research should seek to
          • identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
            • many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
            • certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.
      • for: system justification theory, status quo bias

      • summary

        • Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
        • Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
        • However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
          • system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
        • This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies
  2. Nov 2023
  3. Sep 2023
    1. Social tipping points and physical tipping points are interrelated. With environmental stress, the former could arrive before the latter, and then cascades develop. Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
      • for: TPF
      • comment
        • Hamburg climate futures outlook 2023 report supports need for something on the scale of the planned TPF
  4. Aug 2023
    1. Without a solid spiritual foundation, humanity may well continue on its path toward self-destruction, whether it be through environmental collapse, nuclear war or Artificial Intelligence gone haywire. On the other hand, if we evolve our culture to value inner work as much as we value outer work, then our individual and collective spiritual wisdom might just catch up with our rapidly advancing technology.
    1. there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
      • question
        • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
    2. Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
      • policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
    3. Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
      • study findings
        • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
          • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
            • events that attract attention
            • opinion polls that aggregate information
            • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
          • perserverence
            • leaders who persevere even at great cost
      • for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
      • title
        • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
      • authors
        • Nikos Nikiforakis
        • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
      • for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

      • title

        • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
      • authors
        • Sirkku Juhola
        • Tatiana Filatova
        • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
        • Reinhard Mechler
        • Jurgen Scheffran
        • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
      • date
        • Sept 21, 2022
      • abstract

        • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
        • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
        • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
        • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
          • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
        • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
        • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
          • social tipping points,
          • climate adaptation limits and
          • systemic risks,
        • which so far have been separate.
        • Furthermore, we discuss
          • methods and
          • models
        • used to illustrate the dynamics of
          • social and
          • adaptation tipping points
        • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
        • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
          • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
      • reference

    1. But it's so essential that we go to this place that our brain gave us a solution. Evolution gave us a solution. And it's possibly one of the most profound perceptual experiences. And it's the experience of awe.

      -for: awe, wonder, Deep Humanity, inner transformation, transition, inner/outer transformation, social tipping point, individual tipping point - Awe / wonder (getting in touch with the sacred) is evolutions solution to helping us transition into the unknown - This is in alignment with the essence of the open source Deep Humanity praxis - helping individuals to rediscover the sacred, to transform life back into a living experience of awe and wonder - Deep Humanity's purpose is to rekindle awe so that - we may bring about an individual tipping point, and collectively, - collective tipping point in global society to accelerate the transition out of the polycrisis

      ...moving from the scared back to the sacred

  5. Jul 2023
    1. theology managed to change right from from the medieval theology
      • for: system change, social tipping point
        • if theology can change so radically, so too can economics
      • for: social tipping point, STP
      • title
        • Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
      • guest
        • Damon Centola
      • description
        • a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
      • comment
        • this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis
    1. when the size of the committed minority reached~25% of the population, a tipping point wastriggered, and the minority group succeeded inchanging the established social convention.
      • Key finding
        • when the size of the committed minority reached ~25% of the population,
          • a tipping point was triggered, and the minority group succeeded in changing the established social convention.
    1. Abstract
      • The Buddha taught that everything is
        • connected and
        • constantly changing.
      • These fundamental observations of the world are shared by
        • ecology and
        • evolution.
      • We are living in a time of unprecedented rates of extinction.
      • Science provides us with the information that we need to address this extinction crisis.
      • However, the problems underlying extinction generally do not result from a lack of scientific understanding,
        • but they rather result from an unwillingness to take the needed action.
      • I present mindfulness and meditative aspects of Zen practice that provide the deeper “knowing,” or awareness that we need to inspire action on these problems.

      • comment

        • emptiness is interdependency and change
        • in Deep Humanity praxis, it is equivalent to
          • human INTERbeing and
          • human INTERbeCOMing
  6. Feb 2023
    1. i can use myself as an example here i i consider myself a pretty smart person i'm in grad school i tried to be really analytical my whole 00:03:56 life and yet i showed up at college when i was 19 years old believing that all the supposedly scientific stuff that white nationalists used to support the idea of race being predictive and segregation being 00:04:09 good and all this stupid stuff i totally believed i thought they were right and i thought everybody was just denying it and it took a community of people in college over years to condemn my beliefs to 00:04:22 show me uh kindness to show me real vitriol to be these in these private conversations where we could go over the facts and it took a long time for me thinking i was really smart and analytical to 00:04:35 accept that it was morally wrong that it was ethically wrong
      • comment
      • Derek Black is an example
      • of what it takes to undo deeply culturally conditioned misinformation
      • these variables have to be present for that to work
        • open mind
        • patience
        • accurate information
        • a caring, patient, informed community
      • Derek Black offers a lesson of what is required to depolarize society using social tipping points
      • there needs to be scalable education program to reach still open-minded individuals holding opposing views
      • to openly and respectfully debate difficult, polarizing issues
      • in order to form the wide bridges necessary for social tipping points of complex issues
    1. “And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
      • going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm
    2. When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
      • = 25% Social Tipping Point
      • A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
      • but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
      • abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm
  7. Jan 2023
    1. Semantic leadership   Extent to which word usage by one entity is subsequently adopted by others. Specifically, Klein measures how often novel semantic usage in a given newspaper is mirrored by other newspapers. When a newspaper is a semantic leader, its semantic usage better predicts the later usage of that word in other newspapers compared to those other newspapers' own, earlier usage of the word.

      How might this leadership happen within the social epidemic view of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point framework?

      • the law of the few,
      • the stickiness factor, and
      • the power of context

      and with respect to mavens, connectors, and salespeople?

  8. Jun 2022
    1. Those communities that reject business as usual and cut their energy spending and all the materialist values that go with it, just might survive the long emergency and write a different ending to this story.

      Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.

    1. right now we're not being honest with each other about our values and if that's happening then we cannot form norms you can't design norms they happen 00:47:46 out of human action not human design but they only emerge when there is a real consensus about our shared values and so we've got to get back to that i mean it seems almost like like self-evident and we'll duh but like 00:47:59 if if we're going to continue to self-silence or even lie about our beliefs like the result are going to be collective illusions at scale and whole societies can be taken down by those and listen it 00:48:11 would something like a free society living in a democracy like we take that for granted that is a blip in human history the idea that it can't disappear overnight is silly it can and it will 00:48:23 and it would be one thing if it disappeared because privately we collectively gave up on that experiment right but it's a tragedy if it disappears not because of 00:48:34 private change in values but because of collective illusions and that's that's what for me felt like the urgency to write the book right like that it just felt like things were spinning out of control 00:48:46 and yet we have more data on private opinion in america than probably anybody else i would argue um and i can tell you it's just not true right so i think that's both there's both a dangerous aspect to 00:48:58 illusions but also a hopeful one you know because history has shown us that if you recognize the illusion and you take an effort to dismantle it social change can happen at a scale and pace that would seem unimaginable 00:49:10 otherwise well i can't think of any other way to end in that message so thank you todd so much for this marathon you did with me and two parts thank you we obviously have so much shared values and we're not 00:49:22 as divided as people tell us we are [Laughter] but but now we know why right now we know why it feels that way and if we if we can recognize that we really can no longer trust our brain to accurately 00:49:36 read group consensus then we can get back to this it never really mattered right be who you are learn to be authentic um discover your real self and and work really hard to be congruent between your 00:49:48 private self and your public self the rest takes care of itself

      Exponential change can happen if social tipping points are triggered by a few influencers have a change of heart because they have become educated on how the collective illusion operations, and how congruency of these few influencers can cause exponential change.

    2. it's essential and i just love the idea of setting an example for others you know 00:44:40 that's that's that's the way out of this trap is you start doing that and then other people in your group start doing it and then all of a sudden your group's the whole illusion breaks down the emperor has no clothes 00:44:53 or the emperor has clothes the effort does have clothes eventually eventually guess what i'm trying to say eventually yeah what's great about illusions is that they're powerful when they're enforced but they're fragile because 00:45:04 they're social lies right like like you don't want it to be true you wish it weren't true and so what you're really looking for is is wait a minute like so for some of us we just need one 00:45:15 other person to speak up to give us the the the strength to do the same other people need more but what you see is once you start getting the crack in the illusion it affects what we call like bandwagon 00:45:28 change right like it'll just swerve quickly and suddenly it looks like almost overnight the group has shifted its view so whenever you see stuff um it's funny in politics they call it momentum there's no such thing as momentum that's not what that is that is 00:45:41 that is that is an illusion where people's private behavior is like oh wait a minute this is like i can now say what i really think right i feel comfortable saying what i really think um so when you see like sort of exponential change 00:45:53 in public opinion like that's usually the that's usually that there's an illusion underneath there um because if people privately believe something it is very hard to change that and so you know doing that is like one off right i have 00:46:05 to change your mind or change someone else's mind and so you'll usually see slow linear growth or change in in public opinion when you see it change really quickly like it did with marriage equality marriage equality the public 00:46:17 approval for that i mean it's unreal since what since 2003 to today it's basically flipped in terms of its its acceptance like that doesn't happen if privately most people were against it it just doesn't 00:46:30 such a good point so much the reason why it's so hard is because like the oxytocin bonding mechanism is run so deep in our dna and our biology and and overriding that is not easy 00:46:42 because once we feel this social trust we we can lie you know we can we'll do anything well i cheat steal for our in group

      One of the key triggers for social tipping points is shifting the values of influential people under the spell of collective illusion from incongruency to congruency.

  9. May 2022
    1. Design of a hyper-response will be dependent on a comprehensive strategic planning process being enacted and ongoing discourse and revision. This strategic concept focuses on phase 1 and provides introductory ideas for phase 2.

      The public Indyweb, which supports symmathesy, deep conversation, adjacent association space and private as well as publicly owned data can have a force multiplier effect by massive amounts of discoverable knowledge. If knowledge is what constrains good decisions, then discoverability of salient knowledge can lead to better decisions and better actions.

      Incorporating a cascading, iterative, recursive Social Tipping Point (STP) strategy is also highly salient and can accelerate the viral spread of scalable system change through the global population.

    2. Its success hinges on not only communication of the problem but also the capacity for humans to undertake synchronized action toward the same goal. Coordination, cooperation, teamwork, and leadership skills become significant to survival capacity.  

      A global syncrhonizing event such as a regularly held Tipping Point Festival (TPF) to promote and accelerate social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources amongst ordinary citizens and an open wisdom commons, open knowledge commons, open research commons for massive open online collaboration at zero marginal cost is what is required to support this. It would allow global syncrhronization and high efficacy discoverability of openly shared knowledge and solutions.and rapid dissemination and localized clean production for clean provisioning systems appropriate to each community on the planet. Such a system we have tentatively called the Indyweb, where data is privately owned and secure and any data made public is stored immutably. Indyweb becomes an asset owned by humanity itself, with no centralized authority claiming ownership. The technology now exists to make this feasible.

  10. Jan 2022
    1. As the paper notes, a large body of work suggests that “the power of small groups comes not from their authority or wealth, but from their commitment to the cause”.

      What does paper author Damon Centola think about competing minorities?...who will win out to cause the tipping point?

  11. Nov 2021
    1. i think the focus was very much on energy supply and to a limited extent on things like um yeah technologies and like vehicle 01:00:07 technologies for example but um much much less in terms of getting people to particularly in developed countries to use less energy and to change diet and to travel less and fly less and all these these things and i think part of 01:00:19 that and it is also reflected in the fact that it was fairly much absent in the uk's net zero strategy is that it is seen as being politically difficult that it might be a you know it might mean that they that politicians lose votes that 01:00:33 it's just too difficult to get people to change their behavior that it's threatening that it might mean lower standards of living um in developed countries etc so i think kind of it's still it's still seen as something and that that was quite explicit i think in 01:00:45 the forward to the uk strategy um so i think in terms of how we move beyond that that's that's difficult but i think it is about reframing behavior change and demand demand management in 01:00:58 much more positive terms to say this isn't a threat there are actually opportunities there are opportunities to improve people's health and well-being to create green jobs to reskill people in new sectors and 01:01:09 and so on and it is not about you know reducing uh quality of life or well-being it's not about people losing jobs etc so this is i think there's a job here to kind of reframe it in terms of those those opportunities and those 01:01:22 co-benefits so that would be my my initial thought

      Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.

    1. social change typically spreads as ‘complex contagions,’ requiring multiple sources of social reinforcement to induce adoption,”

      Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.

    1. Social convention, which has for so long worked against us, can if flipped become our greatest source of power, normalising what now seems radical and weird. If we can simultaneously trigger a cascading regime shift in both technology and politics, we might stand a chance. It sounds like a wild hope. But we have no choice. Our survival depends on raising the scale of civil disobedience until we build the greatest mass movement in history, mobilising the 25% who can flip the system.

      This is the core philosophy behind Stop Reset Go, but NOT NECESSARILY just in the direction of civil disobedience. To invest only in that is to put all our eggs in one basket that top down actors will be pressured beyond a certain threshold. It may happen, it may not, or it may just take too long. We must diversify and also invest in systematized bottom-up efforts.

    2. Another paper explored the possibility that the Fridays for Future climate protests could trigger this kind of domino dynamics. It showed how, in 2019, Greta Thunberg’s school strike snowballed into a movement that led to unprecedented electoral results for Green parties in several European nations. Survey data revealed a sharp change of attitudes, as people began to prioritise the environmental crisis. Fridays for Future came close, the researchers suggest, to pushing the European political system into a “critical state”. It was interrupted by the pandemic, and the tipping has not yet happened. But witnessing the power, the organisation and the fury of the movements gathered in Glasgow, I suspect the momentum is building again.

      The space is ripe for interventions that can facilitate social tipping points.

    1. A final cluster gathers lenses that explore phenomena that are arguably more elastic and with the potential to both indirectly maintain and explicitly reject and reshape existing norms. Many of the topics addressed here can be appropriately characterized as bottom-up, with strong and highly diverse cultural foundations. Although they are influenced by global and regional social norms, the expert framing of institutions, and the constraints of physical infrastructure (from housing to transport networks), they are also domains of experimentation, new norms, and cultural change. Building on this potential for either resisting or catalyzing change, the caricature chosen here is one of avian metaphor and myth: the Ostrich and Phoenix cluster. Ostrich-like behavior—keeping heads comfortably hidden in the sand—is evident in different ways across the lenses of inequity (Section 5.1), high-carbon lifestyles (Section 5.2), and social imaginaries (Section 5.3), which make up this cluster. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyond dominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of transformation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It is conceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the Enabler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The very early signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequently elaborated upon in the latter part of the discussion.

      The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.

      Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

      The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.

      The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.

      There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.

      A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__