Sample, I. (2021, November 2). JCVI failed to back youth Covid jabs despite favourable modelling. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/02/jcvi-failed-back-youth-covid-jabs-despite-favourable-models

Dr. Thomas Wilckens. (2021, October 31). JCVI facing calls from within for greater transparency over decision-making https://buff.ly/3GwVqCZ JCVI has been criticised for failing to publish detailed minutes, modelling and analysis behind its decision to advise vaccinating all over-16s in Britain #covid19 #coronavirus https://t.co/nWbnvci7LI [Tweet]. @Thomas_Wilckens. https://twitter.com/Thomas_Wilckens/status/1454798820156530689

Sonabend, R., Whittles, L. K., Imai, N., Perez-Guzman, P. N., Knock, E. S., Rawson, T., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Djaafara, B. A., Hinsley, W., FitzJohn, R. G., Lees, J. A., Kanapram, D. T., Volz, E. M., Ghani, A. C., Ferguson, N. M., Baguelin, M., & Cori, A. (2021). Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5

Peeples, L. (2021). COVID reinfections likely within one or two years, models propose. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02825-8

Impact of Social Sciences. “How Models Change the World – and What We Should Do about It,” August 20, 2021. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2021/08/20/how-models-change-the-world-and-what-we-should-do-about-it/.

Denise Dewald, MD 🗽. (2021, August 12). Here are some modeling predictions for the delta variant from COVSIM (group at North Carolina State): PLEASE CHECK THIS OUT - RESOURCES TO SHARE WITH YOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT School-level COVID-19 Modeling Results for North Carolina for #DeltaVariant https://t.co/zU5hB9bKlY [Tweet]. @denise_dewald. https://twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1425626289399009288

Wang, B., Gou, M., Guo, Y., Tanaka, G., & Han, Y. (2020). Network structure-based interventions on spatial spread of epidemics in metapopulation networks. Physical Review E, 102(6), 062306. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.062306

ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘I just had cause to revisit the Friston modelling paper from Sept: Https://t.co/QOTC8fXV0n 1/n’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 26 February 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1336277391233208320

NIHR HPRU in Behavioural Science and Eval Bristol. (2021, May 27). Event: The CONQUEST study has collected data on the contacts, behaviour & symptoms of staff & students @BristolUni during #COVID19 to inform policy & math modelling. Join us for this webinar on 8 June for an update on the study, its impact & future plans. Https://t.co/DHrmferP0L https://t.co/25cOASdyKJ [Tweet]. @HPRU_BSE. https://twitter.com/HPRU_BSE/status/1397906695775473671

Maatman, F. O. (2021). Psychology’s Theory Crisis, and Why Formal Modelling Cannot Solve It. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/puqvs

Gu, T., Wang, L., Xie, N., Meng, X., Li, Z., Postlethwaite, A. E., Aleya, L., Howard, S., Gu, W., & Wang, Y. (2021). Towards a country-based prediction model of COVID-19 infections and deaths between disease apex and end: -Evidence from countries with contained numbers of COVID-19. Frontiers in Medicine, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.585115

Koehler, M., Slater, D. M., Jacyna, G., & Thompson, J. R. (2021). Modeling COVID-19 for Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24(2), 9.

Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.

Holme, Petter, and Jari Saramäki. ‘Temporal Networks as a Modeling Framework’. ArXiv:2103.13586 [Physics], 24 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13586.

the Guardian. ‘How Modelling Covid Has Changed the Way We Think about Epidemics | Adam Kucharrski’, 4 January 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/04/covid-model-epidemic-collaboration-experiment.

Gupta, Prateek, Tegan Maharaj, Martin Weiss, Nasim Rahaman, Hannah Alsdurf, Abhinav Sharma, Nanor Minoyan, et al. ‘COVI-AgentSim: An Agent-Based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing’. ArXiv:2010.16004 [Cs], 29 October 2020. http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.16004.

Blakely, Tony, John Lynch, Koen Simons, Rebecca Bentley, and Sherri Rose. ‘Reflection on Modern Methods: When Worlds Collide—Prediction, Machine Learning and Causal Inference’. International Journal of Epidemiology 49, no. 6 (1 December 2020): 2058–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz132.

Imperial College London. ‘Report 34 - COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence’. Accessed 12 March 2021. http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/departments/school-public-health/infectious-disease-epidemiology/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/.

‘Fact Check: Claim about Neil Ferguson’s Covid-19 Predictions’. Accessed 5 March 2021. https://theferret.scot/fact-check-neil-ferguson-covid-19-predictions/.

Catherine Rampell. (2020, December 4). The jobs hole remains very, very deep. Today, the U.S. economy still has a greater jobs deficit than was the case at the very worst point of every previous postwar recession, including the Great Recession https://t.co/jYH1AUqBsV [Tweet]. @crampell. https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1334856009207189507

Ogbunu, B. C. (2020, October 27). The Science That Spans #MeToo, Memes, and Covid-19. Wired. https://www.wired.com/story/the-science-that-spans-metoo-memes-and-covid-19/

Li, You, Harry Campbell, Durga Kulkarni, Alice Harpur, Madhurima Nundy, Xin Wang, and Harish Nair. ‘The Temporal Association of Introducing and Lifting Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions with the Time-Varying Reproduction Number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study across 131 Countries’. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 21, no. 2 (1 February 2021): 193–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4.

Vigfusson, Y., Karlsson, T. A., Onken, D., Song, C., Einarsson, A. F., Kishore, N., Mitchell, R. M., Brooks-Pollock, E., Sigmundsdottir, G., & Danon, L. (2021). Cell-phone traces reveal infection-associated behavioral change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(6). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2005241118

Rocca, R., & Yarkoni, T. (2020). Putting psychology to the test: Rethinking model evaluation through benchmarking and prediction. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/e437b

Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: The PyCascades package. ArXiv:2011.02031 [Nlin, Physics:Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.02031

Burel, Gregoire; Farrell, Tracie; Mensio, Martino; Khare, Prashant and Alani, Harith (2020). Co-Spread of Misinformation and Fact-Checking Content during the Covid-19 Pandemic. In: Proceedings of the 12th International Social Informatics Conference (SocInfo), LNCS.

Karl Friston: Up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19. (2020, June 4). UnHerd. https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

Atkeson, A. (2020). What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios (Working Paper No. 26867; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26867

Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem, Yesiltas, S., & Yildirim, M. A. (2020). COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows (Working Paper No. 27191; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27191

Spreckelsen, P. von, Wessel, I., Glashouwer, K., & Jong, P. J. de. (2020). Preprint Averting Repulsion? Body-Directed Self-Disgust and Autobiographical Memory Retrieval. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/qhc35

Clark, A., Jit, M., Warren-Gash, C., Guthrie, B., Wang, H. H., Mercer, S. W., ... & Checchi, F. (2020). Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.

Tsolaki, Vasiliki, George E. Zakynthinos, and Dimosthenis Makris. ‘The ARDSnet Protocol May Be Detrimental in COVID-19’. Critical Care 24, no. 1 (December 2020): 351. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13054-020-03081-4.

Friston KJ, Parr T, Zeidman P et al. Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. Wellcome Open Res 2020, 5:89 (https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15881.1)

Mithering about the unmodellable

Mithering about the unmodellable. "Sometime late last year I went to the Euro IA conference with Anya and Silver to give a talk on the domain modelling work we've been doing in UK Parliament."

One goal of systems science and modelling, to explore what might be relevant and give us better heuristics.