for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - to - climate departure map - of major cities around the world - 2013

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

from - Nature publication - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/

for - question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure?

question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure? - Does the term "functional integrity" imply autonomy from climate feedbacks? Obviously, climate feedback plays a huge role in determining biodiversity health - In 2013, Mora et al. found that climate departure, the year in which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds will occur everywhere on the planet, regardless of an aggressive RCP pathway being taken. In this study, climate departure was found to take place (relative to 2013) - 37.5 years in the future under RCP45, or - 22.5 years in the future under RCP85 - It would seem that the biodiversity boundaries should take into consideration climate departure as species extinction and ecological system disruption is projected to occur, regardless of whether RCP45 or RCP85 is adopted. - Currently, we are still on a Business-As-Usual trajectory, but since 2013, scientific research has moved the danger threshold even lower so climate departure dates are likely even sooner than those calculated in the 2013 Mora paper

to - Mora, C., Frazier, A., Longman, R. et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540 - Researchgate copy - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability&group=world

Ryan Holiday's system puts some of the work farther from the note taking origin compared with Nicholas Luhmann's system which places more of it up front.

How, if at all, do the payoffs from doing each of these vary for the end user of the system?

"So long as it happens." And here lies the rub: when will you put in the work to make the note useful and actionable? Will it be now or later?

Some notes are certainly more mission critical than others. Some work towards one's life's work while others are tidbits which may be useful at a later time. Distinguishing along this spectrum isn't always easy, particular in build a bottom up view of one's research.

There is a difference between the sorts of links one might make when placing an idea into an (analog) zettelkasten. A folgezettel link is more valuable than a simple tag/category link because it places an idea into a more specific neighborhood than any handful of tags. This is one of the benefits of a Luhmann-artig ZK system over a more traditional commonplace one, particularly when the work is done up front instead of being punted to a later time.

For those with a 1A2B3Z linking system (versus a pure decimal system), it may be more difficult to insert a card before other cards rather than after them because of the potential gymnastics of numbering and the natural tendency to put things into a continuing linear order.

See also: - https://hypothes.is/a/ToqCPq1bEe2Q0b88j4whwQ - https://hyp.is/WtB2AqmlEe2wvCsB5ZyL5A/docdrop.org/download_annotation_doc/Introduction-to-Luhmanns-Zette---Ludecke-Daniel-h4nh8.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iRzF_ZAdUI

Scott Sheper demonstrates one of the lowest forms of zettelkasten: simply indexing an idea from a book into one's index. This includes skipping the step of excerpting the idea into it's own card.

He describes it as zettelkasten knowledge building for busy people. It's definitely a hard turn from his all-in Luhmann-esque method.

In the end it comes down to where one puts in the work. Saving the work of having done some reading for a small idea one may tangentially reference later is most of the distance, but he's still going to have to do more work later to use the idea.

If I understand it correctly, with hyperaudio, one can also create transcription to somebody else's video or audio when embedded.

In that case, if you add to hyperaudio the annotation capablity of hypothes.is or docdrop, the vision outlined in the article on Global Knowledge Graph is already a reality.

Beyond this, Gracie also had senses of timing and spatial skills that many also often lack. This is a sort of neurodiversity piece which some are either lifted up or pulled down by within our literacy-focused teaching system.

It may be a skill she's focused on improving, or one which she's naturally gifted and might improve upon to use in a professional career. Focusing on a literacy-only framing for her education is the sort of thing that, instead of amplifying her talents, may have the effect of completely destroying them, and her altogether.

Most group projects require extra time (Goold, Craig, & Coldwell, 2008), and groups must take responsibility for organizing their collaboration and individual inputs (Lizzio & Wilson, 2005).

They may also experience stress and frustration in collaborating with people they do not know well (Curtis & Lawson, 2001).

Exerkines

New Study Finds Vaccine Dose Timing Reduces Risk of Long-COVID in Unvaccinated Patients. (2021, December 15). Arcadia.Io. https://arcadia.io/press-release-vaccine-dose-timing-reduces-long-covid-risk/

Vazquez, A. (2020). Superspreaders and lockdown timing explain the power-law dynamics of COVID-19. Physical Review E, 102(4), 040302. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.040302

Zhang, Juanjuan, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Wen Zheng, Huilin Shi, Alessandro Vespignani, Cecile Viboud, Marco Ajelli, and Hongjie Yu. ‘The Impact of Relaxing Interventions on Human Contact Patterns and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in China’. Science Advances 7, no. 19 (1 May 2021): eabe2584. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe2584.

Karimi, Fariba, and Petter Holme. ‘A Temporal Network Version of Watts’s Cascade Model’. ArXiv:2103.13604 [Physics], 25 March 2021. http://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13604.

Voysey, M., Costa Clemens, S. A., Madhi, S. A., Weckx, L. Y., Folegatti, P. M., Aley, P. K., Angus, B. J., Baillie, V., Barnabas, S. L., Bhorat, Q. E., Bibi, S., Briner, C., Cicconi, P., Clutterbuck, E., Collins, A. M., Cutland, C., Darton, T., Dheda, K., Douglas, A. D., … Group, O. C. V. T. (2021). Single Dose Administration, And The Influence Of The Timing Of The Booster Dose On Immunogenicity and Efficacy Of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3777268). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3777268

Wright, Kenneth P., Sabrina K. Linton, Dana Withrow, Leandro Casiraghi, Shannon M. Lanza, Horacio de la Iglesia, Celine Vetter, and Christopher M. Depner. “Sleep in University Students Prior to and during COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders.” Current Biology 30, no. 14 (July 20, 2020): R797–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.06.022.

Brashier, N. M., Pennycook, G., Berinsky, A. J., & Rand, D. G. (2021). Timing matters when correcting fake news. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(5). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020043118

But it’s really hard to see, because our human brains struggle to think about this Clock function as something for generating discrete snapshots of a clock, instead of representing a persistent thing that changes over time.

editor, P. B. S. policy. (2020, October 9). ‘Hyperbolic messaging’ eroding public trust in UK’s Covid response. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/09/hyperbolic-messaging-eroding-public-trust-uk-covid-response

Slide 13:

“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.”

― Heraclitus

Of course it’s not the same river — the river, is, what? The water flowing past your feet? The sound that it makes? These things are different at every moment. Our idea of ‘the river’ doesn’t correspond to anything in the real world. Understanding this concept means getting closer to an understanding of reality itself — once you fully absorb the impact of this idea, it changes you, from a person who didn’t have that understanding into one who does.

And as you bask in your newfound zen-like enlightenment, you discover an almost spiritually calming effect — the world as it is right now is the only thing that matters, not the state of the world as it was yesterday or as it will be tomorrow.

Slide 39:

“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.”

― Heraclitus

And I think Heraclitus probably understood it all along. There’s a paradox contained in this statement. If the concept of identity over time is meaningless, then what do we mean by ‘it’ and ‘he’?

Carozzi, F., Provenzano, S., Roth, S. (2020). Urban Density and Covid-19. Retrieved from http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1711.pdf

Nguyen, T. D., Gupta, S., Andersen, M., Bento, A., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2020). Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility (Working Paper No. 27235; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27235

Urban Density and COVID-19. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13440/

Cellini, N., Di Giorgio, E., Mioni, G., & Di Riso, D. (2020). Sleep quality, timing, and psychological difficulties in Italian school-age children and their mothers during COVID-19 lockdown [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/95ujm

Does this mean we should focus more on longitudinal AR for PD?

Timing seems to symbolize two different meanings:

Importance and exclusivity on one hand. But the moment/time period in which the activity takes place (work vs private time; weekday vs weekend, day vs night, lunch vs dinner) also conveys special meaning.

Could the multiple temporalities that symbolize importance account for a source of tension between always online volunteers and those who show up for random periods of time?

Deployments have fixed time periods for data collection but no scheduling mechanisms for volunteers. Does this create a source of friction when there is no mechanism to signal social intent or meaning?

How does this problem get reflected in Reddy's TRH model or Mazmanian's porous time idea?

How can you manage social coordination of rhythms/horizons when there is no signal to convey intent/commitment?

What part of the SBTF social coordination is spectral, mosaic, rhythmic and/or obligated? And when is it not?

Way too short!!!!!!!!!!!