for - definition - realtime ecological forecasting - definition - near term ecological forecasting - adjacency - near term ecological forecasting - open science - citizen science - climate departure

for - quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project

quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project - Eltahir - To get people to act, my hypothesis is, you need to reach them - not just by convincing them to be good citizens and saying it’s good for the world to keep below 1.5 degrees, but - showing how they individually will be impacted,”

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - to - climate departure map - of major cities around the world - 2013

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

from - Nature publication - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/

for - climate crisis - map of climate departure - world cities

for - question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure?

question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure? - Does the term "functional integrity" imply autonomy from climate feedbacks? Obviously, climate feedback plays a huge role in determining biodiversity health - In 2013, Mora et al. found that climate departure, the year in which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds will occur everywhere on the planet, regardless of an aggressive RCP pathway being taken. In this study, climate departure was found to take place (relative to 2013) - 37.5 years in the future under RCP45, or - 22.5 years in the future under RCP85 - It would seem that the biodiversity boundaries should take into consideration climate departure as species extinction and ecological system disruption is projected to occur, regardless of whether RCP45 or RCP85 is adopted. - Currently, we are still on a Business-As-Usual trajectory, but since 2013, scientific research has moved the danger threshold even lower so climate departure dates are likely even sooner than those calculated in the 2013 Mora paper

to - Mora, C., Frazier, A., Longman, R. et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540 - Researchgate copy - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability&group=world

for -Deep Humanity BEing journey - climate departure

for - climate departure map - of major cities around the globe - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al. - from - climate departure paper

from - The projected timeline of climate departure from recent variability - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

for - climate change impacts - marine life - citizen-science - potential project - climate departure - ocean heating impacts - marine life - marine migration - migrating species face collapse - migration to escape warming oceans - population collapse

main research findings - Study involved 146 species of temperate or subpolar fish and 2,572 time series - Extremely fast moving species (17km/year) showed large declines in population while - fish that did not shift showed negligible decline - Those on the northernmost edge experienced the largest declines - There is speculation that the fastest moving ones are the also the one's with the least evolutionary adaptations for new environments

for - open source, citizen science biodiversity projects - validation - open source, citizen science climate departure project - validation

open source, citizen science biodiversity projects - validation - Inventories of species remain incomplete - mainly due to limited field sampling to provide an accurate picture of the extent and distribution of all components of biodiversity - Purvis/Hector 2000, MEA 2003

• for: types of initiators of community projects, SONEC - initiators of community projects, question - frameworks for community projects, suggestion - collaboration with My Climate Risk, suggestion - collaboration with U of Hawaii, suggestion - collaboration with ICICLE, suggestion - collaboration with earth commission, suggestion - collaboration with DEAL

• question: frameworks for community projects

  • If our interest is to attempt to create a global collective action campaign to address our existential polycrisis, which includes the climate crisis, then how do we mobilize at the community level in a meaningful way?

  • I suggest that this must be a cosmolocal effort. Why? Knowledge sharing across all the communities will accelerate the transition of any participating local community.

  • This means that we cannot rely on citizens living in small communities to construct an effective coordination framework for rapid de-escalation of the polycrisis. The capacity does not exist within small communities to build such a complex system. The system can be more effectively built before the collective action campaign is started by a virtual community of experts and ready for trial with pilot communities.
  • To meet this enormous challenge, it cannot be done in an adhoc way. At this point in time, many people in many communities all around the globe know of the existential crisis we face, but if we look at the annual carbon emissions, none of the existing community efforts has made a difference in their continuing escalation.
  • The knowledge required to synchronize millions of communities to have a unified wartime-scale collective action mobilization to reach decarbonization goals that the mainstream approach has not even made a dent in will be a complex problem.
  • In other words, what is proposed is a partnership.
  • Since we are faced with global commons problems that pose existential threats if not mitigated in 5 to 8 years, the scope of the problem is enormous.
  • Super wicked problems require unprecedented levels of collaboration at every level.
  • The downscaling of global planetary boundaries and doughnut economics seems the most logical way to think global, act local.

  • Building such a collaboration system requires expert knowledge. Once built, however, it requires testing in pilot communities. This is where a partnership can take place

  • 2024, Jan. 1 Adder

    • My Climate Risk Regional Hubs
      • time 29:46 of https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fevent%2Flater-is-too-late-tipping-the-balance-from-negative-to-positive&group=world
      • https://www.wcrp-climate.org/mcr-hubs
      • Suggestion:
        • SRG has long entertained a collaborative open science project for grassroots polycrisis / climate crisis education - to measure and validate latest climate departure dates
        • This would make climate change far more salient to the average person because of the observable trends in disruption of local economic activity connected to the local ecology due to climate impacts
        • This would be a synergistic project between SRG, LCE, SoNeC, My Climate Risk hubs, ICICLE and U of Hawaii
        • Our community frameworks need to go BEYOND simply adaptation though, which is what "My Climate Risk" focuses exclusively on. We need to also engage equally in climate mitigation.
  • reference
  • I coedited this volume on examples of existing cosmolocal projects
    • https://clreader.net/

• for: climate departure project - potential stakeholder

• for: example - animal-plant communication, bee-flower communication, bee - primrose flower communication, communication - animal - plant, communication - bee - flower, 2019 University of Tel Aviv study, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction

• for: communication - plants, education, education - climate change, education - climate departure, education - species extinction
• question: climate change education, climate departure education

• for: climate change - false binary, jobs vs environment, example, example climate change - false binary, climate departure, leverage point

• example: false environmental binary

  • activists need to better communicate the false binary that climate denialists keep using to pull the wool over people's eyes.
  • jobs vs environment ignores the short term threat of environmental degradation
  • this is where participatory climate departure can show the threat in a visceral, concrete way that is far more compelling you the average person than any intellectual attempt to explain the differences example - climate change - false binary

• for: climate departure, biodiversity loss, extinction

• for: climate departure, Camilo Mora, stats, stats - climate departure - canada, climate departure - montreal, climate departure - vancouver, climate departure - toronto
• paraphrase
  • Cities across the country will begin to reach “climate departure”: a symbolic rubicon, after which a climate falls completely outside historical norms.
  • Even the coldest year, going forward, will be hotter than the hottest in the past.
  • The concept was defined in 2013 by researchers at the University of Hawai’i, who crunched computer models of 39 different planetary futures to arrive at their predictions.
  • In a scenario consistent with roughly two degrees warming by mid-century,
• stats: start - Montreal is estimated to reach its departure point in 2072, - Toronto in 2074 and - Vancouver in 2083.
• stats: end
• comment
  • the article doesn't mention two important points
    • a number of places are expected to reach climate departure in the 2020's, such as
      • Manokwari, Indonesia in 2020
      • Lagos and Jakarta in 2029
    • Even if we decarbonize at the most aggresive RCP pathway, it would not prevent climate departure, but only delay it by a few decades
  • The implications are profound. It means that the living organisms on most places on the planet will be on a path to extinction or migration. The entire biosphere will be in migration and this also has profound implications on human social and economic systems. Species whose livelihood billions of people depend on will be migrating to other parts of the environment, potentially devastating large swathes of local economies the world over.
• Reference:
  • climate departure global map (2013)
    • https://manoa.hawaii.edu/news/attachments/img6034_3468l.gif
  • Annotation of Dr. Camilo Mora's 2013 paper on climate departure:
    • https://bafybeieahubpyssaodlciia3o3rminifeb63mpmgafqxliqj4nwilkojze.ipfs.4everland.io/

• for climate change - impacts, climate departure, extinction, biodiversity loss, marine heat wave, ubc, Pacific Northwest heatwave
• paraphrase
• stats
  • An unprecedented heatwave occurred in the Pacific Northwest (PNW)
    • from ~25 June to 2 July 2021,
    • over lands colonially named
      • British Columbia (BC)
      • Alberta (AB) in Canada,
      • Washington (WA),
      • Oregon (OR) in the United States.
  • Near-surface air temperature anomalies reached up to 16–20 °C above normal over a wide region (Fig. 1),
    • with many locations breaking all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C (Fig. 2a).
  • The Canadian national temperature record was broken 3 days in a row, at multiple locations,
    • with the highest temperature of 49.6 °C recorded in Lytton, BC, on 29 June (Figs. 1b),
    • 4.6 °C higher than the Canadian record prior to this event.
  • The new record temperature was reportedly the hottest worldwide temperature recorded north of 45° latitude,
    • and hotter than any recorded temperature in Europe or South America.

• for: marine heat wave, fish dieoff, fish kill, extinction, climate departure, climate change - impacts
• title: The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
• date: Feb. 9, 2023

• for: fish kill, climate change - impacts, climate departure, fish kill - Australia

• for: climate change - impacts, extinction, biodiversity loss, fish kill, salmon dieoff, stats, stats - salmon, logging, human activity

• paraphrase

• stats

  • None of the 28 streams Cunningham and his colleagues studied hit summertime highs warmer than 25.9 C,
  • the point where warming water can become lethal.
  • But in four rivers, temperatures climbed past 20.3 C,
    • the threshold where some have found juvenile coho stop growing.
  • In some watersheds, deforestation rates climbed to 59 per cent.

• comment

  • deforestation may be a contributing factor but there are also other variables like changes in glacial melt water

• for: extinction, climate departure, Jane Goodall, quote, tapestry, thread,
• quote
  • we humans depend on the natural world
  • but what we depend on is healthy ecosystems that are made up of a complex mix of plants and animal species
  • each one has a role to play and I see it as like a beautiful living tapestry and as an animal or plant species disappears from that ecosystem it's like pulling out a thread
  • and if enough threads are pulled then the tapestry will hang in tatters and the ecosystem will disappear
• author
  • Jane Goodall

• for: future climate impacts, futures, climate impacts, preparedness, climate change - human migration, climate refuge, climate departure, Camilo Mora

• comment

  • There will be massive human migration
  • Europe is already unable to cope with the migration of a million climate refugees from Syria
  • The US is polarized due to mass migration of a few people escaping climate crisis and violence in central and South America
  • Developed countries will be overwhelmed with climate refugees number in the millions or tens of millions
  • In addition to human migration, the migration of species seeking cooler temperatures will fundamentally reshape our economies
  • climate departure is the date when local climate goes outside normal historical bounds and locally adapted species do not recognize it anymore and will be forced to migrate to survive
  • climate departure is a huge issue that is going to happen, regardless of which decarbonoization path we take. This means all species on the globe will be undergoing dramatic environmental shifts, making mass extinction more likely.

• reference

  • Dr. Camilo Mora et al. seminal 2013 paper on climate departure: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW

• for: climate departure
• compare: climate departure

• Title
  • A crucial year for understanding how ocean warming affects marine life
• Author
  • Alison Snyder
• Date
  • June 18, 2023
• Source
  • https://www.axios.com/2023/06/18/ocean-heatwaves-marine-life

• To provide an indication of the projected timing of
• = climate departure
• under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
• the authors have developed an index that determines
• the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability
• for a particular location

• = ABSTRACT
• = Ecological and societal disruptions - by modern = climate change - are critically determined
• by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues.
• This paper introduces a new index of
• the year when the projected mean climate of a given location
• moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
• This index is called = "climate departure"
• The study employs data from 1860 to 2005 as the historical period,
• this index has a global mean of:
  • 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario
  • 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.
• Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries,
• this highlights the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented

!- for : climate departure * Camilo Mora's 2013 Climate Departure paper: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW * 2021 ecological disruption from climate change paper - Christopher Tritos: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihtmvfurik7dk3ksfjwn6bnbqnzgfpkokfwcvgo5xarmqseedajiy.ipfs.dweb.link%2Fthe%2520projected%2520timing%2520of%2520abrupt%2520ecological%2520disruption%2520from%2520climate%2520change%252010.1038%40s41586-020-2189-9.pdf&group=vnpq69nW

• Title: What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive?
• Author: Matthew Huber
• Date: July 20, 2022

• Title: he projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
• Author: Camilo Mora et al.
• Date: 2013*

Climate departure for a specific location on the planet is defined as the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability.

As climate departure is projected to occur under all IPCC RCP scenarios, this implies profound changes will take place everywhere on the planet.

The biosphere will react to this unprecedented shift in equally unprecedented ways. Each species has a comfort zone temperature band to exist within. If the temperature falls outside that zone, it can remain in place and adapt, shift geographical location (migration) or go extinct.

In an ecosystem, species all depend on each other. When a number of these shift their patterns, it will affect the others, increasing total ecosystem disruptions. Since human activity is dependent on nature, this will also ripple up to humans in a variety of ways.

Read this abstract and let the profound implications sink in!

In other words, climate departure will occur REGARDLESS OF WHICH RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is taken, whether it is the best or the worst path as defined by IPCC, climate departure will happen! (Climate departure is defined in the second paragraph of the paper) Using historical data between 1860 and 2005 for defining normative climate around the globe, If the worst IPCC emissions scenario (RCP85) happens, climate departure (projected near-surface air temp of the average location on earth) around the globe at the average location happens by 2047 (+/- 14 years). if the BEST IPCC emissions scenario (RCP45) happens, then.climate departure still happens but moves beyond historical variability by 2069 (+/-18 years)

In other words, NO MATTER WHAT RCP of the ones IPCC publishes we take, climate departure is going to happen! How does the planet plan for such a drastic shift of every ecosystem on the globe? If it is unavoidable, then resiliency will be a key intervention.

gloss - Climate Departure

Climate Departure is the year that the local climate changes so radically that local species no longer recognize it as their environment.

See Camilo Mora's nature 2013 paper on climate departure:.https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

Arctic Fox is being replaced by Red Fox