4,326 Matching Annotations
  1. Aug 2020
    1. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: “@ErikAngner 2/2 1. mandatory schooling (where there exemptions for immune-compromised parents?) 2. encouraging household members of infected individuals to go to work/school Could you provide more background here and how you see these policies in the wider context?” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1295685503111647232

    2. That team of authors is not the most dependable, if I may put it that way.
    3. so was that USA today open letter basically misinformation in this regard?
    4. Lots to say, but just quickly: (1) Exceptions are permitted on a case-by-case basis https://skolverket.se/regler-och-ansvar/ansvar-i-skolfragor/skolplikt-och-ratt-till-utbildning… (2) Everyone is encouraged to work from home whenever possible
    5. V. sorry to see a colleague spread what can only be described as conspiracy theories on Twitter. I think academics have a particular duty to keep their heads cool in a moment of crisis.Quote TweetBenjamin L. Jones@BoardshortsBen · 3hIn many other countries, society would be furious and demanding answers to why their children have been used to spread a virus that we now know has potential neurological implications for children. But not in Sweden. https://theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails
    6. 2020-08-18

    7. Erik, as people inside and outside Sweden continue to grapple with what exactly the Swedish strategy might have been, there are two aspects that have seemed potentially troubling to me (and only more so in light of the FOI email releases):
    8. 2/2 1. mandatory schooling (where there exemptions for immune-compromised parents?) 2. encouraging household members of infected individuals to go to work/school Could you provide more background here and how you see these policies in the wider context?
    1. 10.1080/17512786.2020.1805791
    2. This study empirically examined studies on fake news through a content analysis of 103 peer-reviewed articles obtained from the eight major databases. The articles were published between 2000 and 2018. This systematic review of the journals, progression, theories, methodologies, media genres, common used words, and geospatial distribution indicated that the majority of the articles were published in Journalism Practice, Popular Communication, Digital Journalism, and Journalism Studies. Regarding progression, the highest number of publications was recorded for 2017 and 2018. At least one article was published each year beginning in 2005; 2006 and 2014 were exceptions. The results indicate that the majority of the articles were atheoretical. Qualitative research methods, content analysis, and surveys which were applied oftentimes. The studies were equally distributed across all media genres (traditional, digital, and social media). However, television and Twitter were the platforms that received the greatest amount of scholarly attention. The articles focused on the United States more than any other country. Finally, “news,” “media,” and “fake” were the most regularly frequently occurring words.
    3. Mapping the Scholarship of Fake News Research: A Systematic Review
    4. 2020-08-11

    5. Arqoub, O. A., Elega, A. A., Özad, B. E., Dwikat, H., & Oloyede, F. A. (2020). Mapping the Scholarship of Fake News Research: A Systematic Review. Journalism Practice, 0(0), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/17512786.2020.1805791

    1. 2020-08-17

    2. Are you interested in #preregistration and have experience with either #EEG or #fMRI? We, the MPI CBS #OpenScience initiative, are hosting a hackathon on August 20, 3-6 pm (GMT+2) to continue working on preregistration templates for EEG and fMRI and we need YOUR help! 1/2
    3. MPI CBS Open Science on Twitter: “Are you interested in #preregistration and have experience with either #EEG or #fMRI? We, the MPI CBS #OpenScience initiative, are hosting a hackathon on August 20, 3-6 pm (GMT+2) to continue working on preregistration templates for EEG and fMRI and we need YOUR help! 1/2” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/CBSOpenScience/status/1295270699158904834

    1. 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479
    2. Du, Z., Javan, E., Nugent, C., Cowling, B. J., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US. EClinicalMedicine, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479

    3. Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case––a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle.
    4. Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US
    5. 2020-08-12

    1. (1) Adam Briggs on Twitter: “Might be of interest. In 2017, @PHE underwent an independent international peer-review from @IANPHIhealth - the International Association of National Public Health Institutes. An organisation that strengthens government agencies responsible for public health. Thread/” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1295416016877625344

    2. 2020-08-17

    3. Might be of interest. In 2017, @PHE underwent an independent international peer-review from @IANPHIhealth - the International Association of National Public Health Institutes. An organisation that strengthens government agencies responsible for public health. Thread/
    1. Whitney R. Robinson on Twitter: “1/ An #EpiTwitter 🧵 about theory... https://t.co/rSjfkHG21r” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/WhitneyEpi/status/1295522551892971520

    2. 2020-08-18

    3. 11/ I’m continually impressed by the powerful insights that come from epidemiologists who draw from our conceptual and methodology traditions but also tested and validated theory.
    4. 10/ When someone in spring 2020 tells @HealthEquityDoc that we are “all in the same boat” re: chances of getting exposed to #SARSCoV2 and dying of #COVID19, she too is going to have some questions... https://iaphs.org/racism-in-the-
    5. 9/ When people tell @JuliaLMarcus that shaming folks & involving criminal justice is an effective tool for slowing the spread of #COVID19, she’s going to have a few questions for you...
    6. 8/ The problem with data divorced from theory is that statistics can lie. And we humans are fallible and susceptible to suggestion. The theoretical grounding of the researchers that I respect most helps keeps them clear-eyed & ethical.
    7. 7/ And the novel coronavirus #SARSCoV2 has presented many novel situations...
    8. 6/ The thing is, solid theory gives us a basis for predicting likely outcomes in novel situations...
    9. 5/ Visionary, truth-telling epidemiologists like @HealthEquityDoc, who has an MPH in health behavior and a PhD in social epidemiology...
    10. 4/ Future-gazing epidemiologists like @JuliaLMarcus, who has an undergrad double major in sociology and women’s studies...
    11. 3/ When I think about the most forward-thinking epidemiologists I know re: #SARSCoV2 and #COVID19, a common bond is a grounding and training in social theory...
    12. 2/ Many epidemiologists are not trained in social or health behavior theory. Its value is often overlooked in a field that values quantitative analysis.
    13. 1/ An #EpiTwitter about theory...GIFQuote TweetThe Atlantic@TheAtlantic · 13hThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill has switched to remote learning after a spike in COVID-19 cases. “Universities have no business reopening if they can’t provide a healthy environment," Julia Marcus and Jessica Gold wrote in July. http://on.theatln.tc/WIHQzDo
    1. 2020-08-17

    2. Andrew Althouse on Twitter: “@brnichols8744 @JeremySussman @FinancialGonzo @venkmurthy Many scientists use Twitter to carry on conversations (with varying degrees of formality) about published papers, the good, bad, and ugly. The people in this conversation all do this frequently. None of us are anti-science (cont...)” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://twitter.com/ADAlthousePhD/status/1295168734219337738

    3. Many scientists use Twitter to carry on conversations (with varying degrees of formality) about published papers, the good, bad, and ugly. The people in this conversation all do this frequently. None of us are anti-science (cont...)
    1. Endocrinology, T. L. D. &. (2020). Obesity and COVID-19: Blame isn’t a strategy. The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30274-6

    2. 2020-08-07

    3. 10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30274-6
    4. On July 27th, 2020, the UK government released the new national strategy for tackling obesity. In big bold font, the heading of the official press release urges people to “Lose weight to beat COVID-19 and protect the NHS”.In the first 4 months of the pandemic, England witnessed the greatest rate of excess deaths in Europe. According to a New York Times analysis, between March 14 and July 17, 2020, the UK has had 62 600 more deaths, a 31% increase, compared with the same period last year.Obesity, along with other chronic conditions such as diabetes, is a recognised risk factor for severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19. The new obesity strategy, published alongside the ‘Better Health’ campaign, led by Public Health England, intends to restrict advertisements and promotions of unhealthy foods, improve nutritional labelling of foods and drinks in restaurants and stores, and expand weight management services.The ambition for a healthier nation, during and beyond COVID-19, is to be praised. However, at a time where our economies are fragile, bans on food promotions and advertisements could also result in higher prices and growing inequalities, which themselves contribute to obesity and poor health outcomes. Equally troubling, by targeting almost exclusively the obesogenic environment, and only a small part of it, the new policies fail to take into account the intricacy of biological, societal, and psychological factors that underpin obesity.The suggestion that it is necessary to lose weight to “reduce pressure on doctors and nurses in the NHS, and free up their time to treat other sick and vulnerable patients”, communicated in the policy document, is also one of the most glaring examples of health promotion strategies that draws on guilt and shame. Past Public Health history has shown that such campaigns are ineffective and even detrimental.The COVID-19 culture has become a blame culture. The obesity rates in England are concerning, but they are not the main culprit for the nation's high COVID-19 death toll. Let's not forget that people with obesity are vulnerable patients too.
    5. Obesity and COVID-19: Blame isn't a strategy
    1. 2020-08-15

    2. FDA allowing saliva-based test funded by NBA. (2020, August 15). ESPN.Com. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29667299/fda-allowing-saliva-based-test-funded-nba

    3. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency authorization on Saturday allowing public use of a saliva-based test for the coronavirus developed at Yale University and funded by the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association.The test, known as SalivaDirect, is designed for widespread public screening. The cost per sample could be as low as about $4, though the cost to consumers will likely be higher than that -- perhaps around $15 or $20 in some cases, according to expert sources.
    4. Saliva-based coronavirus test funded by NBA, NBPA gets emergency authorization from FDA
    1. Before answering, I should say that I am responding from a particular perspective, given that I was part of an open letter to the UK government on this issue in March of this year. The following piece outlines in a bit more detail our thinking in writing that letter:https://behavioralscientist.org/why-a-group-of-behavioural-scientists-penned-an-open-letter-to-the-uk-government-questioning-its-coronavirus-response-covid-19-social-distancing/
    1. 13335
    2. Bertoli, S., Guichard, L., & Marchetta, F. (2020). Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France. IZA Discussion Paper, 13335.

    3. 2020-06

    4. We analyze the con­se­quences of the decision of French gov­ern­ment to maintain the first round of the municipal elections on March 15, 2020 on local excess mortality in the following weeks. We exploit het­ero­gene­ity across mu­nic­i­pal­i­ties in voter turnout, which we in­stru­ment using a measure of the intensity of local com­pe­ti­tion. The results reveal that a higher turnout was as­so­ci­ated with a sig­nif­i­cantly higher death counts for the elderly pop­u­la­tion in the five weeks after the elections. If the his­tor­i­cally low turnout in 2020 had been at its 2014 level, the number of deaths would have been 21.8 percent higher than the one that was recorded. More than three quarters of these ad­di­tional deaths would have occurred among the in­di­vid­u­als aged 80 and above.
    1. Avery, C., Bossert, W., Clark, A., Ellison, G., & Ellison, S. F. (2020). Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists (Working Paper No. 27007; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27007

    2. 2020-04

    3. This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been influential in recent policy decisions. There is tremendous opportunity for social scientists to advance the relevant literature as new and better data becomes available to bolster economic outcomes and save lives.
    4. 10.3386/w27007
    5. Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists
    1. Blanchett, D., Finke, M. S., & Reuter, J. (2020). Portfolio Delegation and 401(k) Plan Participant Responses to COVID-19 (Working Paper No. 27438; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27438

    2. 2020-06

    3. 10.3386/w27438
    4. We analyze the behavior of 401(k) plan participants during the first quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 generated historic volatility, large negative returns, and significant unemployment. Only 2.1% of participants invested in TDFs made any changes to their portfolios, with even lower rates of change among those defaulted into robo-advised managed accounts, suggesting that delegation can decrease the likelihood of portfolio mistakes by less sophisticated participants. While 16.6% of non-delegated participants made portfolio changes, these changes were more likely among more sophisticated participants and appear not to have reduced participants’ quarterly returns. Consistent with liquidity constraints, however, withdrawals spike following job loss.
    5. Portfolio Delegation and 401(k) Plan Participant Responses to COVID-19
    1. Aum, S., Lee, S. Y. (Tim), & Shin, Y. (2020). Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health? (Working Paper No. 27100; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27100

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27100
    4. We construct a quantitative model of an economy hit by an epidemic. People differ by age and skill, and choose occupations and whether to commute to work or work from home, to maximize their income and minimize their fear of infection. Occupations differ by wage, infection risk, and the productivity loss when working from home. By setting the model parameters to replicate the progression of COVID-19 in South Korea and the United Kingdom, we obtain three key results. First, government-imposed lock-downs may not present a clear trade-off between GDP and public health, as commonly believed, even though its immediate effect is to reduce GDP and infections by forcing people to work from home. A premature lifting of the lock-down raises GDP temporarily, but infections rise over the next months to a level at which many people choose to work from home, where they are less productive, driven by the fear of infection. A longer lock-down eventually mitigates the GDP loss as well as flattens the infection curve. Second, if the UK had adopted South Korean policies, its GDP loss and infections would have been substantially smaller both in the short and the long run. This is not because Korea implemented policies sooner, but because aggressive testing and tracking more effectively reduce infections and disrupt the economy less than a blanket lock-down. Finally, low-skill workers and self-employed lose the most from the epidemic and also from the government policies. However, the policy of issuing “visas” to those who have antibodies will disproportionately benefit the low-skilled, by relieving them of the fear of infection and also by allowing them to get back to work.
    5. Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health?
    1. Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Lippi, F. (2020). A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown (Working Paper No. 26981; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26981

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w26981
    4. We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. We use the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem. The optimal policy depends on the fraction of infected and susceptible in the population. We parametrize the model using data on the COVID19 pandemic and the economic breadth of the lockdown. The quantitative analysis identifies the features that shape the intensity and duration of the optimal lockdown policy. Our baseline parametrization is conditional on a 1% of infected agents at the outbreak, no cure for the disease, and the possibility of testing. The optimal policy prescribes a severe lockdown beginning two weeks after the outbreak, covers 60% of the population after a month, and is gradually withdrawn covering 20% of the population after 3 months. The intensity of the lockdown depends on the gradient of the fatality rate as a function of the infected, and on the assumed value of a statistical life. The absence of testing increases the economic costs of the lockdown, and shortens the duration of the optimal lockdown which ends more abruptly. Welfare under the optimal policy with testing is higher, equivalent to a one-time payment of 2% of GDP.
    5. A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown
    1. Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020). How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? (Working Paper No. 26948; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26948

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w26948
    4. Evaluating the economic impact of "social distancing" measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a fundamental question about the modern economy: how many jobs can be performed at home? We classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations and merge this classification with occupational employment counts. We find that 37 percent of jobs in the United States can be performed entirely at home, with significant variation across cities and industries. These jobs typically pay more than jobs that cannot be done at home and account for 46 percent of all US wages. Applying our occupational classification to 85 other countries reveals that lower-income economies have a lower share of jobs that can be done at home.
    5. How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
    1. Baqaee, D., & Farhi, E. (2020). Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis (Working Paper No. 27152; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27152

    2. 2020-08

    3. 10.3386/w27152
    4. We study supply and demand shocks in a general disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-output linkages, downward nominal wage rigidities, credit-constraints, and a zero lower bound. We use the model to understand how the Covid-19 crisis, an omnibus of supply and demand shocks, affects output, unemployment, and inflation, and leads to the coexistence of tight and slack labor markets. Negative sectoral supply shocks are stagflationary, whereas negative sectoral demand shocks are deflationary. Furthermore, complementarities in production amplify Keynesian spillovers from negative supply shocks but mitigate them for negative demand shocks. In a stylized quantitative model of the US, we find supply and demand shocks each explain about half the reduction in real GDP. Although there is as much as 7% Keynesian unemployment, this is concentrated in certain markets. Hence, aggregate demand stimulus is less than half as effective as in a typical recession where all labor markets are slack.
    5. Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
    1. Barnett, M., Buchak, G., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty (Working Paper No. 27289; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27289

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27289
    4. We examine how policymakers should react to a pandemic when there is significant uncertainty regarding key parameters relating to the disease. In particular, this paper explores how optimal mitigation policies change when incorporating uncertainty regarding the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and the Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) into a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. This paper finds that optimal policy under parameter uncertainty generates an asymmetric optimal mitigation response across different scenarios: when the disease’s severity is initially underestimated the planner increases mitigation to nearly approximate the optimal response based on the true model, and when the disease’s severity is initially overestimated the planner maintains lower mitigation as if there is no uncertainty in order to limit excess economic costs.
    5. Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty
    1. Razin, A., Sadka, E., & Schwemmer, A. H. (2020). DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis (Working Paper No. 27239; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27239

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27239
    4. Globalization is expected to be reversed, at least partially, in the post pandemic era. The Great Financial Recession of 2008–10 marked a historic turning point in the direction of weakening the degree of global economic integration. Now, in the post-pandemic era, policymakers appear poised to take deliberate steps to reinforce the movement toward de-globalization. At the same time, safety nets are expected to be strengthened. In this paper, we develop a model, with which we analyze central macroeconomic interactions between globalization and safety nets. We put together stylized elements of trade globalization, financial globalization, international tax competition, immigration, and welfare state, all in a two-skill, two-period stylized model, where policy (taxes and social benefits) is determined through majority voting.
    5. DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis
    1. Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments (Working Paper No. 27097; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27097

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27097
    4. In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the US government brought about a collection of fiscal stimulus measures: the 2020 CARES Act. Among other provisions, this Act directed cash payments to households. We analyze households’ spending responses using high-frequency transaction data. We also explore heterogeneity by income levels, recent income declines, and liquidity. We find that households respond rapidly to receipt of stimulus payments, with spending increasing by $0.25-$0.35 per dollar of stimulus during the first 10 days. Households with lower incomes, greater income drops, and lower levels of liquidity display stronger responses. Liquidity plays the most important role, with no observed spending response for households with high levels of bank account balances. Relative to the effects of previous economic stimulus programs in 2001 and 2008, we see much smaller increases in durables spending and larger increases in spending on food, likely reflecting the impact of shelter-in-place orders and supply disruptions. We hope that our results inform the current debate about appropriate policy measures.
    5. Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments
    1. Bordo, M. D., Levin, A. T., & Levy, M. D. (2020). Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications (Working Paper No. 27369; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27369

    2. 2020-06

    3. 10.3386/w27369
    4. The U.S. economy currently faces a truly extraordinary degree of uncertainty as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve could begin highlighting alternative scenarios to illustrate key risks to the economic outlook, and such scenarios could inform the Fed’s policy strategy and public communications. In this paper, we present a set of illustrative scenarios, including a baseline scenario with a rapid but incomplete recovery this year (an upward-tilting checkmark), a benign scenario in which an effective cure or vaccine becomes available and facilitates a nearly complete recovery by mid-2021, and a severely adverse scenario involving persistently high unemployment and disinflationary pressures. Insights into these scenarios can be drawn from key historical episodes, including the Spanish flu, the Great Depression, the end of World War II, and the global financial crisis. We conclude by identifying key challenges that the Federal Reserve might face in adjusting its monetary policy and emergency credit facilities under each of these alternative scenarios.
    5. Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications
    1. Cajner, T., Crane, L. D., Decker, R. A., Grigsby, J., Hamins-Puertolas, A., Hurst, E., Kurz, C., & Yildirmaz, A. (2020). The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (Working Paper No. 27159; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27159

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27159
    4. Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of the U.S. labor market during the first four months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. After aggregate employment fell by 21 percent through late-April, employment rebounded somewhat through late-June. The re-opening of temporarily shuttered businesses contributed significantly to the employment rebound, particularly for smaller businesses. We show that worker recall has been an important component of recent employment gains for both re-opening and continuing businesses. Employment losses have been concentrated disproportionately among lower wage workers; as of late June employment for workers in the lowest wage quintile was still 20 percent lower relative to mid-February levels. As a result, average base wages increased between February and June, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Finally, we document that businesses have cut nominal wages for almost 7 million workers while forgoing regularly scheduled wage increases for many others.
    5. The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession
    1. Mulligan, C. B. (2020). Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27060; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27060

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w27060
    4. The “shutdown” economy of April 2020 is compared to a normally functioning economy both in terms of market and nonmarket activities. Three novel methods and data indicate that the shutdown puts market production 25-28 percent below normal in the short run. At an annual rate, the shutdown is costing $7 trillion, or about $15,000 per household per quarter. Employment already fell 28 million by early April 2020. These costs indicate, among other things, the value of innovation in both health and general business sectors that can accelerate the time when normal activity resumes.
    5. Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic
    1. Alfaro, L., Faia, E., Lamersdorf, N., & Saidi, F. (2020). Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity (Working Paper No. 27134; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27134

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27134
    4. In SIR models, homogeneous or with a network structure, infection rates are assumed to be exogenous. However, individuals adjust their behavior. Using daily data for 89 cities worldwide, we document that mobility falls in response to fear, as approximated by Google search terms. Combining these data with experimentally validated measures of social preferences at the regional level, we find that stringency measures matter less if individuals are more patient and altruistic preference traits, and exhibit less negative reciprocity community traits. We modify the homogeneous SIR and the SIR-network model to include agents' optimizing decisions on social interactions. Susceptible individuals internalize infection risk based on their patience, infected ones do so based on their altruism, and reciprocity matters for internalizing risk in SIR networks. A planner further restricts interactions due to a static and a dynamic inefficiency in the homogeneous SIR model, and due to an additional reciprocity inefficiency in the SIR-network model. We show that partial or targeted lockdown policies are efficient only when it is possible to identify infected individuals.
    5. Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
    1. Pathak, P. A., Sönmez, T., Unver, M. U., & Yenmez, M. B. (2020). Leaving No Ethical Value Behind: Triage Protocol Design for Pandemic Rationing (Working Paper No. 26951; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26951

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w26951
    4. Rationing of medical resources is a critical issue in the COVID-19 pandemic. Most existing triage protocols are based on a priority point system, in which a formula specifies the order in which the supply of a resource, such as a ventilator, is to be rationed for patients. A priority point system generates an identical priority ranking specifying claims on all units. Triage protocols in some states (e.g. Michigan) prioritize frontline health workers giving heavier weight to the ethical principle of instrumental value. Others (e.g. New York) do not, reasoning that if frontline workers obtain high enough priority, there is a risk that they obtain all units and none remain for the general community. This debate is pressing given substantial COVID-19 health risks for frontline workers. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of rationing medical resources through a reserve system. In a reserve system, resources are placed into multiple categories. Priorities guiding allocation of units can reflect different ethical values between these categories. A reserve system provides additional flexibility over a priority point system because it does not dictate a single priority order for the allocation of all units. It offers a middle-ground approach that balances competing objectives, such as in the medical worker debate. This flexibility requires attention to implementation, especially the processing order of reserve categories. We describe our model of a reserve system, characterize its potential outcomes, and examine distributional implications of particular reserve systems. We also discuss several practical considerations with triage protocol design.
    5. Leaving No Ethical Value Behind: Triage Protocol Design for Pandemic Rationing
    1. Harris, J. E. (2020). The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City (Working Paper No. 27021; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27021

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w27021
    4. New York City’s multipronged subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Subway lines with the largest drop in ridership during the second and third weeks of March had the lowest subsequent rates of infection in the zip codes traversed by their routes. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan.
    5. The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City
    1. Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2020). Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27224; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27224

    2. 2020-08

    3. 10.3386/w27224
    4. We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth for 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. Using the quantitative framework and methods developed in Huo, Levchenko, and Pandalai-Nayar (2020), we show that the average real GDP downturn due to the Covid-19 shock is expected to be - 29:6%, with one quarter of the total due to transmission through global supply chains. However, "renationalization" of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. The average GDP drop would have been - 30:2% in a world without trade in inputs and final goods. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners.
    5. Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
    1. Gale, W. G., Gelfond, H., Fichtner, J. J., & Harris, B. H. (2020). The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials (Working Paper No. 27123; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27123

    2. 2020-05

    3. 10.3386/w27123
    4. We examine household wealth across birth cohorts and over time using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We show that although the Great Recession reduced wealth in every age group, longer-term trends indicate that the wealth of older age groups has increased while the wealth of younger age groups has declined. A substantial share of these changes, in both directions, can be explained by changes in household demographic and economic characteristics. As for the millennial generation, their median wealth in 2016 was lower than the wealth of any similarly aged cohort between 1989 and 2007. Millennials will have several advantages in wealth accumulation relative to previous generations, such as more education and longer working lives, but also several disadvantages, including weak prospects for economic growth and delays in home purchase and marriage. The millennial generation contains a significantly higher percentage of minorities than previous generations. We estimate that minority households have tended to accumulate less wealth than whites in the past, controlling for household characteristics, and the difference appears to be growing over time for Blacks relative to whites. These results apply to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and are best interpreted as addressing generational wealth patterns through 2016 and providing a pre-COVID benchmark against which future studies can be compared.
    5. The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials
    1. Jordà, Ò., Singh, S. R., & Taylor, A. M. (2020). Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (Working Paper No. 26934; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26934

    2. 2020-07

    3. 10.3386/w26934
    4. What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for about decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
    5. Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
    1. Krueger, D., Uhlig, H., & Xie, T. (2020). Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic (Working Paper No. 27047; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27047

    2. 2020-04

    3. 10.3386/w27047
    4. In this paper we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. Extending the theoretical framework proposed by Eichenbaum-Rebelo-Trabandt (2020), we distinguish goods by their degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social (and thus possibly contagious) context. We demonstrate that, within the model the "Swedish solution" of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their sectoral behavior on their own can lead to a substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis, avoiding more than 80 of the decline in output and of number of deaths within one year, compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous. For different parameter configurations that capture the additional social distancing and hygiene activities individuals might engage in voluntarily, we show that infections may decline entirely on their own, simply due to the individually rational re-allocation of economic activity: the curve not only just flattens, it gets reversed.
    5. Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic
    1. Augenblick, N., Kolstad, J. T., Obermeyer, Z., & Wang, A. (2020). Group Testing in a Pandemic: The Role of Frequent Testing, Correlated Risk, and Machine Learning (Working Paper No. 27457; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27457

    2. 2020-07

    3. 10.3386/w27457
    4. Group testing increases efficiency by pooling patient specimens and clearing the entire group with one negative test. Optimal grouping strategy is well studied in one-off testing scenarios with reasonably well-known prevalence rates and no correlations in risk. We discuss how the strategy changes in a pandemic environment with repeated testing, rapid local infection spread, and highly uncertain risk. First, repeated testing mechanically lowers prevalence at the time of the next test. This increases testing efficiency, such that increasing frequency by x times only increases expected tests by around √x rather than x. However, this calculation omits a further benefit of frequent testing: infected people are quickly removed from the population, which lowers prevalence and generates further efficiency. Accounting for this decline in intra-group spread, we show that increasing frequency can paradoxically reduce the total testing cost. Second, we show that group size and efficiency increases with intra-group risk correlation, which is expected in natural test groupings based on proximity. Third, because optimal groupings depend on uncertain risk and correlation, we show how better estimates from machine learning can drive large efficiency gains. We conclude that frequent group testing, aided by machine learning, is a promising and inexpensive surveillance strategy.
    5. Group Testing in a Pandemic: The Role of Frequent Testing, Correlated Risk, and Machine Learning