2,207 Matching Annotations
  1. Jul 2021
    1. 2021-05-25

    2. Adam Kucharski on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 July 2021, from https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1397118932356669442

    3. In discussing future pandemic plans (as well as plans for COVID in coming months), it will be crucial to distinguish between what are genuine and perceived constraints - because it will be impossible to define what is optimal without this distinction. 9/9
    4. As @hannahhec put it last March: "constraints may be real, but they may be moveable, either by the mobilisation of resources, or by updating the mental model about what is possible". https://channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-coronavirus-best-practices-singapore-success-strategy-12585706… 8/
    5. There's also the question of scaled up testing regardless of symptoms. Places like China and South Korea did a lot early on, while others like Japan and Taiwan did relatively little (e.g. from last Aug: https://international.thenewslens.com/article/139685). Again, need to consider underlying reasons. 7/
    6. Another topic is border measures - UK measures currently much stricter than most of Europe, but not as nearly as strict as some places as Asia Pacific. This constraint has shifted quite a lot - yet not fully in many countries. We should consider why. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1389940764587745281?s=20… 6/Quote Tweet
    7. Stringency and sustainability can make big difference to outcomes. During the 1918 pandemic in US, the introduction of NPIs reduced impact - but they didn't remain in place for long and epidemics still ended with accumulation of immunity, e.g. https://pnas.org/content/104/18/7582… 5/
    8. Adam Kucharski@AdamJKucharski·25 MayReplying to @AdamJKucharskiIn contrast, attitudes to duration/stringency of NPIs have shifted dramatically. Look back to Feb 2020 & prominent figures were raising human rights concerns about China lockdown. But by mid-March, countries had abandoned earlier perceived constraints: https://theconversation.com/what-we-learned-from-tracking-every-covid-policy-in-the-world-157721… 4/
    9. It's worth reading these papers on the response in Taiwan (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689…) and Korea (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765252…). Should more countries include these data-intense approaches in future pandemic plans? Or does reluctance to date reflect an immovable constraint? 3/
    10. Some apparent local constraints have persisted throughout the pandemic. For example if you look globally, there are still notable differences in approaches to surveillance and quarantine... 2/Quote TweetAdam Kucharski@AdamJKucharski · 1 May 2020As many countries start to expand isolation and tracing efforts, it's worth highlighting a couple of important aspects of the response in places like Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong: surveillance infrastructure and strict enforcement. 1/Show this thread
    11. One thing that has hugely shaped countries' response to COVID, and which I don't think gets enough discussion: genuine constraints and perceived constraints. A thread... 1/
    1. 2021-05-27

    2. Carl T. Bergstrom. (2021, May 27). An update on the B.1.617.2 lineage. I’m concerned. Not because of reduced vaccine efficacy, but simply because a further increase in transmissibility above B.1.1.7 would be quite bad news for countries where vaccination is low and for hopes of near-elimination everywhere. [Tweet]. @CT_Bergstrom. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1398029743954432005

    3. An update on the B.1.617.2 lineage. I'm concerned. Not because of reduced vaccine efficacy, but simply because a further increase in transmissibility above B.1.1.7 would be quite bad news for countries where vaccination is low and for hopes of near-elimination everywhere.Quote TweetJohn Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch · 27 MayNEW: B.1617.2 is fuelling a third wave in the UK, with not only cases but also hospital admissions rising. Vaccines will make this wave different to those that have come before, but it remains a concern, and one that other countries will soon face. Thread on everything we know:Show this thread
    1. 2021-06-23

    2. Thushan de Silva on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 July 2021, from https://twitter.com/Thushan_deSilva/status/1418511974435115011

    3. @skellydonal @ShonaCMoore
    4. 18/Many thanks to the many healthcare workers who took part, @DHSCgovuk who funded the study, plus our other funders @UKCICstudy @UKRI_News @NIHRresearch
    5. 17/These immunology results are at a population level, not individual, & there is huge variation in responses. Don’t worry if you got 2 vaccines on a “short” interval – 2 jabs are great! Please accept vaccines when you are offered them
    6. 16/Importantly we do not know yet what this means clinically for protection from infection or severe disease over time after the 2nd dose. We also do not know yet whether responses are more durable after “long” interval dosing – we will follow up
    7. 15/Unlike neutralising antibodies, T cell responses to spike did not demonstrate immune escape for the Delta variant in our assay. Go T cells!
    8. 14/… But T cells were again well maintained over time, just like after a single dose
    9. 13/Finally, we looked at what happens over time in #SARSCoV2 naïve people who had the “short” course dosing. Neutralising antibody levels had dropped significantly by week 13 after the 2nd dose…
    10. 12/We looked more closely at the character of the T cells and found the “long” interval resulted in more “helper” CD4+ T cells in SARS-CoV-2 naïve people. This may be an important factor in explaining the better antibody responses we see in this group
    11. 11/What about T cells? Again, we saw a different pattern to antibodies. The “long” interval did not result in higher T cell responses. In fact, the T cell response after the 2nd dose was slightly lower in SARS-CoV-2 naïve people (grey) receiving the “long” dosing regimen
    12. 10/This is mirrored in neutralisation assays, where in #SARSCoV2 naïve people, the “long” interval results in higher neutralising antibodies after the 2nd dose, including against the beta, gamma and delta variants
    13. 9/Does the dosing interval have an impact on your ‘final’ immune response? In #SARSCoV2 naïve people (grey), the ”long” interval results in higher antibody levels after the full course compared to the “short” interval; there is no difference in those previously infected (red)
    14. 7/This is mirrored by binding antibodies (easier to measure than neutralising antibodies) in #SARSCoV2 naïve people (grey). In those previously infected (red), we still see a drop during the “long” interval, but to a lesser extent and antibodies are maintained at a higher level
    15. 8/Interestingly (well we thought so as T cell enthusiasts), the T cell response behaved differently and was maintained after 1 dose during this “long” dosing interval in both #SARSCoV2 naïve (grey) and previously infected (red) individuals
    16. 6/In #SARSCoV2 naïve people who had “long” interval dosing neutralising antibody levels in blood (using ‘live’ virus by Screaton lab) drop during this interval. By 10 weeks, neutralising activity against the Delta variant is minimal, but a good response is seen after the 2nd dose
    17. 5/Firstly, to put our results in context, in the @PHE_uk #SIRENstudy led by @SMHopkins sustained protection following a single Pfizer dose was seen in healthcare workers out to 12 weeks. Caveat: this was at a time when the Alpha variant was dominant
    18. 4)What happens to antibodies and T cells during this “long” interval? 1)Is there a difference in the immune responses after the 2nd Pfizer dose in people getting the “short” (average 3 weeks) compared to “long” (average 10 weeks) dosing regimen?
    19. 3/Extension of the interval between vaccine doses for the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was introduced in the UK to accelerate population coverage with a single dose. Recruiting 503 healthcare workers across 5 UK centres, we set out to answer some questions...
    20. 2/Led by @rebecca37704429 and @susannajd with Paul Klenerman and Miles Carroll (not on twitter!)@DHSCgovuk @UKCICstudy @PHE_uk @stephanie200586 @chrisjaduncan @eleanorbarnesox @alexrichter3 @sarahlrj @LanceTurtle and more!
    21. 1/Our PITCH consortium preprint on immune responses during different Pfizer BNT162b2 dosing regimens is out! https://pitch-study.org TL;DR get both doses of whichever vaccine you are offered
    1. 2021-06-27

    2. Dvir Aran. (2021, July 27). You’ve probably seen reports from Israel on low vaccine effectiveness in this wave. Is it because of Delta? Waning immunity? We think the reason is mostly that we got the denominator wrong. Https://t.co/yloh5Vo9Xi [Tweet]. @dvir_a. https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1420059124700700677

    3. Just to correct one misconception from my thread - many of you understood that we think there is no waning immunity. This analysis does not reject the waning hypothesis, it just shows that the vaccines are still highly effective even with possible waning.
    4. So to summarize, the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases and probably also symptomatic diseases, even for those vaccinated early.
    5. This is what we got wrong. This “wave” started from cities with high vaccination rate and couldn’t “find” unvaccined adults at risk. The denominator we need to use until mid-July is >95% vaccination rate and not the country’s average.
    6. We can see that cities on the lower quartile had low number of cases until recently, but since mid-July, most cases are coming from those cities.
    7. So why does it look like there is no difference until mid-July? @AArgoetti looked at the trends of cases in cities stratified by their vaccination rates.
    8. and now there are almost 3 times more daily new unvaccined severe cases. Looking at this plot, it seems that the R in the vaccined group is very close to 1, but in the last 10 days its almost 4 in the unvaccined group. We think its as expected with no mitigations beyond vaccines.
    9. See this graph. Until mid-July, the number (normalized to group size) of severe cases in the 65+ group was more or less similar between vaccined and unvaccined. This seemed troubling. But in the last 10 days trends have changed,
    10. You’ve probably seen reports from Israel on low vaccine effectiveness in this wave. Is it because of Delta? Waning immunity? We think the reason is mostly that we got the denominator wrong.Quote TweetDvir Aran@dvir_a · 21 JulAre we seeing immunity waning in Israel? The MoH shared some raw data, and together with @geller_mic we tried to get a qualitative answer to this question. TL;DR – it seems that there is immunity waning, increasing risk of infection of early vaccinated by ~80%. ==>Show this thread
    11. Vaccine impact in Israel: changing trends. Analysis thread with @AArgoetti. From about a month and a half ago we are experiencing a new “Delta” burst. Cases are accumulating, and more and more severe patients are in the hospitals.Quote TweetAmir Argoetti@AArgoetti · 27 Julשינוי מגמה בארץ - הגל ״תפס״ את הלא מחוסנים. @dvir_a ואנוכי הסתכלנו על המידע העדכני וניסינו לנתח את המידע הגולמי על מנת שנוכל להעריך טוב יותר את מצב התחלואה ואת יעילות החיסון. שרשור! >Show this thread
    1. 2021-06-28

    2. Juliet Pulliam, PhD. (2021, June 28). My take (3/4): The last 15 months have been brutal for those of us in SA, as in most of the world. The next few months will continue to try us. Vaccination brings our best hope of making COVID manageable. [Tweet]. @SACEMAdirector. https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/status/1409392605901864962

    3. And in case you're interested in more details on transmissibility of the Delta variant, here are some useful references: https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.24.2100509… from @fcampbell_ and the @WHO Health Emergencies Team https://bit.ly/react-1-round-12… from @SRileyIDD and the REACT study teamREACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased...Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations...medrxiv.org
    4. My take (4/4): Please get vaccinated when you're eligible. For now, continue to mask, sanitize, distance, ventilate, and if you can #stayhome. We owe it to each other and the health workers who have worked tirelessly throughout the pandemic and still have a long way to go.
    5. My take (3/4): The last 15 months have been brutal for those of us in SA, as in most of the world. The next few months will continue to try us. Vaccination brings our best hope of making COVID manageable.
    6. My take (2/4): The Delta variant dominates transmission in SA. Delta is ~2X as transmissible as the original virus and ~1.5X as transmissible as Beta. With what is likely <50% population-level immunity, we are in a similar boat to a year ago regarding transmission potential.
    7. My take (1/4): Overall, seroprevalence in SA appears to be around 43%. The percent of people protected by natural immunity and vaccination may be higher. The test used in this study does not detect vaccine-derived antibodies, and the estimates could reflect some antibody waning.
    8. The study is primarily funded by @theSANBS and @The_WCBS. #SACEMA and its researchers are funded by @dsigovza and @NRF_News. The study used the @Roche Elecsys platform, which detects antibodies produced by natural infection that bind to the N protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
    9. Juliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector·28 JunThe new data are based on samples collected in May 2021, using the same methods as described in the earlier preprint from Sykes et al: https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-233375/v1… The study was led by @Marionvermeulen with data analysis by @laurettemhlanga, Dr Eduard Grebe, and Prof Alex Welte.Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among blood donors in Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal,...Background: Population-level estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) is a crucial epidemiological indicator for tracking the Covid-19 epidemic. Such data are...researchsquare.com
    10. Juliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector·28 Jun@theSANBS, @The_WCBS, and #SACEMA have released new information on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in South Africa, including in the 5 provinces for which data were not previously available. #NotYetPeerReviewed A full preprint will be released soon.
    1. 2021-06-28

    2. ReconfigBehSci on Twitter: ‘RT @AdamJKucharski: Worth reading thread below – and here’s current epidemic curve for comparison: Https://t.co/N6LCEssp1Z https://t.co/yDC…’ / Twitter. (n.d.). Retrieved 29 July 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1409530195099328514

    3. Worth reading thread below – and here's current epidemic curve for comparison:Quote TweetJuliet Pulliam, PhD@SACEMAdirector · 28 Jun@theSANBS, @The_WCBS, and #SACEMA have released new information on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in South Africa, including in the 5 provinces for which data were not previously available. #NotYetPeerReviewed A full preprint will be released soon.Show this thread
    1. 2021-07-21

    2. Vaughan, M. L. P., Clare Wilson, Graham Lawton and Adam. (n.d.). What life will be like now England’s covid-19 restrictions have lifted. New Scientist. Retrieved 26 July 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133443-200-what-life-will-be-like-now-englands-covid-19-restrictions-have-lifted/

    3. WITH more than half of adults in the UK having received two doses of vaccine against covid-19, the UK government has decided that the time has come to lift most restrictions in England and get on with life alongside the virus. Since 19 July, people in England have been free to meet up with whoever they want, wherever and whenever they like, for the first time since November 2020, and nightclubs have reopened for the first time since March 2020. Masks and …
    4. What life will be like now England's covid-19 restrictions have lifted
    1. 2021-07-25

    2. Leising, D., Grenke, O., & Cramer, M. (2021). Visual Argument Structure Tool (VAST). PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/dvfq7

    3. 10.31234/osf.io/dvfq7
    4. We present the first version of the Visual Argument Structure Tool (VAST) which may be used for jointly visualizing the conceptual, logical and empirical relationships that structurally constitute arguments. The system incorporates some basic principles of structural equation modelling (SEM), but goes beyond SEM in important ways: It distinguishes between the features of objects and the names that may be used for those features. It also distinguishes several ways in which features may be related to one another (causation, conceptual implication, prediction, transformation, conclusion), and all of these from beliefs as to whether something IS the case and/or OUGHT to be the case. The system also accounts for multi-dimensionality, for different perspectives on the same issues, and allows for any degree of vagueness vs. precision deemed possible and/or necessary. The latter feature may make it particularly useful for visualizing narrative (“verbal”) components of argument structures, which are very common in the humanities but also in psychology. VAST may be used to increase the level of argument specification in these fields, which has been repeatedly called for. As for application, the system may be used to capture the structure of arguments in (e.g.) criminal investigations and media reports, but also of general worldviews and of debates. Visualizing argument structures this way is useful because it helps ensure comprehensiveness (i.e. any element and any combination of elements may be evaluated against all other elements), which facilitates the identification of contradictions, circularity, redundancy, and gaps that may otherwise be overlooked. It may also help improve on the accessibility of arguments to a wider audience.
    5. Visual Argument Structure Tool (VAST)
    1. Alan McNally 💙. (2021, February 5). Our latest lab data for B.1.1.7 prevalence in Pillar 2 samples, as determined by SGTF. Clearly now plateauing at 80-90%. Which to me suggests there are other lineages as transmissible as B.1.1.7......... Https://t.co/toA0GyVsZz [Tweet]. @alanmcn1. https://twitter.com/alanmcn1/status/1357701944027004929

    1. Gonnet, G., Stewart, J., Lafleur, J., Keith, S., McLellan, M., Jiang-Gorsline, D., & Snider, T. (2021). Analysis of feature influence on Covid-19 Death Rate Per Country Using a Novel Orthogonalization Technique. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/4kw2n

    2. 2021-07-02

    3. 10.31222/osf.io/4kw2n
    4. We have developed a new technique of Feature Importance, a topic of machine learning, to analyze the possible causes of the Covid-19 pandemic based on country data. This new approach works well even when there are many more features than countries and is not affected by high correlation of features. It is inspired by the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization procedure from linear algebra. We study the number of deaths, which is more reliable than the number of cases at the onset of the pandemic, during Apr/May 2020. This is while countries started taking measures, so more light will be shed on the root causes of the pandemic rather than on its handling. The analysis is done against a comprehensive list of roughly 3,200 features. We find that globalization is the main contributing cause, followed by calcium intake, economic factors, environmental factors, preventative measures, and others. This analysis was done for 20 different dates and shows that some factors, like calcium, phase in or out over time. We also compute row explainability, i.e. for every country, how much each feature explains the death rate. Finally we also study a series of conditions, e.g. comorbidities, immunization, etc. which have been proposed to explain the pandemic and place them in their proper context. While there are many caveats to this analysis, we believe it sheds light on the possible causes of the Covid-19 pandemic.
    5. Analysis of feature influence on Covid-19 Death Rate Per Country Using a Novel Orthogonalization Technique
    1. World Health Organization (WHO). (2021, May 31). Today WHO has announced a new naming system for key #COVID19 variants. The labels are based on the Greek alphabet (i.e. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc), making them simple, easy to say and remember. 👉 https://t.co/aYCZfspZyb https://t.co/Gxt14fwVqF [Tweet]. @WHO. https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1399432092333883393

    1. NIHR HPRU in Behavioural Science and Eval Bristol. (2021, May 27). Event: The CONQUEST study has collected data on the contacts, behaviour & symptoms of staff & students @BristolUni during #COVID19 to inform policy & math modelling. Join us for this webinar on 8 June for an update on the study, its impact & future plans. Https://t.co/DHrmferP0L https://t.co/25cOASdyKJ [Tweet]. @HPRU_BSE. https://twitter.com/HPRU_BSE/status/1397906695775473671

    1. 2021-07-08

    2. Ward, K. P. (2021). Parenting During COVID-19: A Sentiment Analysis of Reddit Data. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/4ukmd

    3. 10.31234/osf.io/4ukmd
    4. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused significant disruption and disturbance in the lives of individuals across the globe. Especially during the early parts of the pandemic, parents took on increased caregiving responsibilities with little to no guidance from federal organizations. Further, economic strain made it difficult for parents meet their children's physical and emotional needs. Much of the research that has examined parenting during COVID-19 has stemmed from survey data. However, self-presentation biases may prevent survey researchers from obtaining authentic and accurate experiences from parents. Therefore, this study examined parents’ sentiment and emotional wellbeing during COVID-19 using Reddit data—specifically, posts from the Mommit and Daddit subreddits. Data were scraped using Python, and analyzed in R. Sentiment analysis was conducted using the NRC Word-Emotion Association Lexicon (i.e., EmoLex). Results suggested mothers and fathers were less trusting and angrier in late-summer 2020 compared to 2019. Additionally, mothers were more negative in March 2020 compared to March 2019, and mothers’ anticipation increased from March 2020-April 2020 (which did not occur in 2019). This suggests mothers in particular may have experienced initial distress due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Future research should continue to monitor the emotional wellbeing of parents as the COVID-19 pandemic continues.
    5. Parenting During COVID-19: A Sentiment Analysis of Reddit Data
    1. 2021-07-08

    2. Jensen, U., Ayers, S., & Koskan, A. (2021). Video-based messages to reduce COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and nudge uptake. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/df9qw

    3. 10.31234/osf.io/df9qw
    4. Vaccines are highly effective for curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Yet, millions of Americans remain hesitant about getting vaccinated, jeopardizing the collective benefits from potential herd immunity and our ability to end the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that brief video-based messages of encouragement addressing specific COVID-19 vaccine concerns increase vaccination intentions. Intentions, in turn, predict future vaccine uptake in our data. Our experiment also reveals that increased confidence in COVID-19 vaccines and perceived behavioral control to get vaccinated are the key psychological drivers influencing willingness to get vaccinated. Importantly, our messages only increased vaccination intentions among people who identify as conservative or moderates, while liberals are unaffected due to high levels of pre-existing vaccine acceptability. Our findings corroborate the real-world behavioral significance of vaccination intentions, and devise how even short, scalable online messages can provide governments and health authorities an inexpensive, yet effective tool for increasing COVID-19 vaccinations among populations most reluctant to get them.
    5. Video-based messages to reduce COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and nudge uptake
    1. 2021-07-13

    2. Maatman, F. O. (2021). Psychology’s Theory Crisis, and Why Formal Modelling Cannot Solve It. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/puqvs

    3. 10.31234/osf.io/puqvs
    4. In light of psychology’s ‘theory crisis’, multiple authors have recently argued that adopting the formalization of theories and/or formal modelling is a necessary or useful step towards stronger psychological theory. In this article, I instead argue that formal modelling cannot solve the core problem the psychological ‘theory crisis’ refers to, which are the currently high degrees of contrastive and holistic underdetermination of our theories by our data. I do so by first introducing underdetermination as an explanatory framework for determining the evidential import of research findings for theories, and showing how both broader theoretical considerations and informal assumptions are key to this process. Then, I derive the aforementioned core problem from current theory crisis literature and tentatively explore its possible solutions. Lastly, I show that formal modelling is neither a necessary nor sufficient solution for either contrastive or holistic underdetermination, and that its uncritical adoption might instead worsen the crisis.
    5. Psychology's Theory Crisis, and Why Formal Modelling Cannot Solve It