There is nothing new about this idea at all In fact, this is one of the reasons we don’t vaccinate children against chicken pox in the UK It is a totally reasonable thing to include as a point of discussion

It must be so frustrating to work on an expert committee and have non-experts totally misunderstand and misrepresent your work for their agenda The comment in the JCVI minutes about circulating virus in children providing immunity boosting to adults is a great example

I should state I catagorically did not 'discover' B.1.1.529 - the first seqs were uploaded by teams from Botswana and HK, followed shortly by SA. Several other people had independently spotted this (including SA health authorities). I just posted the public Pango request first...

because I'm worried they will bring something from school and now I'm on my way to the cemetery. It's outrageous what things are like here, it shouldn't be like this, and if they had just done something about it in the summer it would all be half as bad."

this clip got me too- for non-German speakers. She is asked whether she is "concerned". Her response: of course I'm concerned, I'm double vexed, I'm waiting for my booster vaccination, my husband died of Covid, I was in hospital, now I'm avoiding my grand children

This is horrible indeed. For context: AfD vote share 31% (plurality) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erzgebirgskreis_I…, double vax uptake 44.8%, worst in Saxony https://coronavirus.sachsen.de/ueberblick-coronaschutzimpfungen-in-sachsen-9874.html…

Clearly we haven't "kept borders closed forever" - most borders have been open for many months now. The question is whether we urgently close a particular border now. "kept borders closed forever" = straw man (and I say this as a researcher on fallacies of argumentation)

True, but what’s the rationale? Early on it was to ensure more ppl are vaccinated. But now the majority is vaccinated & high risk groups have received boosters. There will always be new variants as long as sars-cov-2 is circulating. We cannot keep borders closed forever.

Reminder that reactive travel bans typically slow but don’t stop importations. If new B.1.1.529 variant genuinely more transmissible/can evade immunity to some extent, reasonable to assume already undetected cases in other regions... 1/

In December, many countries reactively banned travel from the UK (https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/20/europe-bans-travel-from-the-uk-over-new-covid-strain-what-we-know-so-far…), but this didn’t stop the rise of B.1.1.7 across the continent (https://nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/09/world/europe/europe-coronavirus-variants.html…). 2/

This may have sounded somewhat naïve in early 2020, but by now, I would have expected that anyone with an interest in covid-19 might have acquired some basic notions in infectious disease epidemiology. 1/

and this still sounds needlessly aggressive in 2021.... I doubt this is the best way to build accuracy promoting science discourse online...

"Herd immunity may not even be possible to reach with this virus". 'By the time you get enough people vaccinated, you get a new variant that arises that escapes previous immunity', says clinical epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani.

From today's Ontario Science Table's COVID update slide deck:

An essential read...thank you @tylerblack32 Weirdly, relatives dying and being chronically ill has more impact than, say...

Statistics Canada has been asking kids about mental health during the pandemic. Initially, after the first 5 months (with school shutdowns, summer break, lots of restrictions), more kids said they were better than worse, most reported no change. 86% "No change or better"

Harsh northern hemisphere winter combines with rapid spread of Covid to hit numerous flight schedules

Omicron havoc for airlines as JetBlue cancels almost 1,300 flights

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention increased its travel warning for cruise ships to the highest level.The CDC warned that the risk of catching Covid on cruise ships is very high regardless of vaccination status.The agency is currently investigating or observing dozens of cruise ships that have had Covid outbreaks.Cruise ships operating in U.S. waters reported about 5,000 Covid cases to the CDC between Dec. 15 - 29.

U.S. CDC says people should ‘avoid cruise travel, regardless of vaccination status’

Canberrans presided over a remarkable achievement this year.Even without children under the age of 12 receiving COVID-19 vaccines, the ACT became one of the most inoculated jurisdictions in the world.Current take-up rates suggest that about 93 per cent of Canberrans, of all ages, will be vaccinated by February — a level that may see the national capital become the world's most-vaccinated city.Yet many residents are wary as 2022 approaches, infections increase and more information about the Omicron variant emerges.

Canberra will be one of the world's most vaccinated cities, but that's not enough against Omicron

Latest Covid primary diagnosis supplement data, by region.

And a neat region-by-region chart of COVID as primary diagnosis here.

3/ Have seen many asking about masks for slightly smaller face sizes— could try 3M Vflex small size

+1 for this style of chart

WAY too soon to be sure (especially w/ potential spread over holidays), but we are seeing a plateau @UCSFHospitals in hospitalizations (Fig L) & test positivity (both symptomatic & asymptomatic; R). Next few days will be key. Until we see sharp downturn, I'm in uber-careful mode.

2/ @nytimes

An unusual degree of self-awareness from the twitter sidebar.

A new @CDCMMWR study shows that people who reported always wearing masks or respirators in indoor public settings in California were less likely to test positive for #COVID19 compared with those who reported not wearing a face covering.

CDC reports another study that fails to control for vaccination rate differences between mask-wearers (higher vax rate) and non-mask wearers (lower). Vaccines were highly protective vs infection (pre-Omicron), so of course the mask group has lower rates. The vaccines work.

transparency in UK covid policy....

Latest SAGE advice to UK government SAGE minutes SPI Future evolution of SARS-COV-2 In summary, this doesn't support details coming out about the Government's "living with covid" plans

Professor Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has called “living with the virus” a confusing phrase as it implies living with “profound uncertainty”.In this episode of the COVID-19 Series, we welcome Professor McKee to discuss the best way to reduce this uncertainty, and what measures and procedures should be in place to keep the virus under control, and the global population safe.Professor McKee will be interviewed by Professor Sir Simon Wessely, Regius Professor of Psychiatry at King’s College London, and Past-President of the RSM.All views expressed in this webinar are of the speakers themselves and not of The RSM. Please note this webinar will be recorded and stored by The RSM and may be used in the future on various internet channels.If you have been enjoying the COVID-19 webinar series, please help support us and our charitable mission to advance healthcare through education and innovation here: https://cafdonate.cafonline.org/13047

COVID-19 Series: Professor Martin Mckee - Episode 97

Many people don’t understand the long-term effects of COVID-19 and prefer to catch it and get it over with, yet a new small study gives the best reason to stay away from the virus.

Study finds brain changes similarly to Alzheimer’s following COVID-19 infection

Why we should be vaccinating children over 5 much faster against Covid in the UK.

Here's a look at the frequency of BA.2 (Omicron) samples with an unusual mutation: ORF1a:M85del (NSP1:M85del). It was first noticed growing significantly in samples from Denmark. However, it is also growing in other countries - notably Sweden and the UK.

BA.1 and BA.2 prevalence by region from ONS Community Infection survey

Approximately half of the profiles pushing the case for herd immunity are artificial accounts. These bot or bot-like accounts are generally characterized as engaging in abnormally high levels of retweets and low content diversity. The high level of bot-like behavior attributed to support for the Great Barrington Declaration on social media indicates the conversation is manipulated and inorganic in comparison to the scientific consensus-based conversation opposing herd immunity theories. A consequence of high frequency of inorganic activity is the creation of a majority illusion (when certain members within a social network give the appearance that an idea or opinion is more popular than it is).  

Social Media Conversations in Support of Herd Immunity are Driven by Bots

10.1016/S2352-4642(22)00005-0

BackgroundIn the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood).MethodsWe used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020–April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1–Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0–4 years, 5–9 years, and 10–17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates.FindingsThe number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7–90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100–2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400–5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100–497 900) children aged 0–4 years, 736 800 (726 900–746 500) children aged 5–9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900–2 174 200) children aged 10–17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3–76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3–23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood.InterpretationOur findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally.FundingUK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study

The Omicron crisis in Hong Kong. This is a graph of fatalities, not cases

While the current death rate in Hong Kong is startling, I think these two graphs give quite a bit of added context

Quick thread: I want you all to meet Vladimir Bondarenko. He’s a blogger from Kiev who really hates the Ukrainian government. He also doesn’t exist, according to Facebook. He’s an invention of a Russian troll farm targeting Ukraine. His face was made by AI.

ust over two years ago, we released the http://whichfaceisreal.com game. This is why. It was clear from the start that AI-generated faces would be used for nefarious purposes including the creation of propaganda.

10.1111/bjh.17034

A low count of CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes is a hallmark laboratory finding in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using flow cytometry, we observed significantly higher CD95 (Fas) and PD-1 expression on both CD4+ T and CD8+ T cells in 42 COVID-19 patients when compared to controls. Higher CD95 expression in CD4+ cells correlated with lower CD4+ counts. A higher expression of CD95 in CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes correlated with a lower percentage of naive events. Our results might suggest a shift to antigen-activated T cells, expressing molecules increasing their propensity to apoptosis and exhaustion during COVID-19 infection.

Increased CD95 (Fas) and PD-1 expression in peripheral blood T lymphocytes in COVID-19 patients

Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical

BackgroundSome patients with COVID-19 who have recovered from the acute infection after experiencing only mild symptoms continue to exhibit persistent exertional limitation that often is unexplained by conventional investigative studies.Research QuestionWhat is the pathophysiologic mechanism of exercise intolerance that underlies the post-COVID-19 long-haul syndrome in patients without cardiopulmonary disease?Study Design and MethodsThis study examined the systemic and pulmonary hemodynamics, ventilation, and gas exchange in 10 patients who recovered from COVID-19 and were without cardiopulmonary disease during invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing (iCPET) and compared the results with those from 10 age- and sex-matched control participants. These data then were used to define potential reasons for exertional limitation in the cohort of patients who had recovered from COVID-19.ResultsThe patients who had recovered from COVID-19 exhibited markedly reduced peak exercise aerobic capacity (oxygen consumption [VO2]) compared with control participants (70 ± 11% predicted vs 131 ± 45% predicted; P < .0001). This reduction in peak VO2 was associated with impaired systemic oxygen extraction (ie, narrow arterial-mixed venous oxygen content difference to arterial oxygen content ratio) compared with control participants (0.49 ± 0.1 vs 0.78 ± 0.1; P < .0001), despite a preserved peak cardiac index (7.8 ± 3.1 L/min vs 8.4±2.3 L/min; P > .05). Additionally, patients who had recovered from COVID-19 demonstrated greater ventilatory inefficiency (ie, abnormal ventilatory efficiency [VE/VCO2] slope: 35 ± 5 vs 27 ± 5; P = .01) compared with control participants without an increase in dead space ventilation.InterpretationPatients who have recovered from COVID-19 without cardiopulmonary disease demonstrate a marked reduction in peak VO2 from a peripheral rather than a central cardiac limit, along with an exaggerated hyperventilatory response during exercise.

Persistent Exertional Intolerance After COVID-19

Imperial College study finds R value higher for older people, raising concerns about waning immunity

UK Covid cases rising among those aged 55 and over

Researchers studying ‘excess deaths’ estimate that more than 18 million people died of disease by end of 2021

Global Covid-19 death toll ‘may be three times higher than official figures’

The World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic on March 11 2020. In the two years since, countries have diverged on their containment strategies, introducing many different ways of mitigating the virus, to varying effect. Here, four health experts look at what has worked well, what mistakes scientists and policymakers made, and what needs to be done to protect human health from here on.

‘We suppressed our scientific imagination’: four experts examine the big successes and failures of the COVID response so far

Modelling suggests that by the end of 2021, some 18 million people had died because of the pandemic.

COVID’s true death toll: much higher than official records

2/2 it's like comparing how wet you got in a down pour with and without umbrella... the biggest surprise to me in this pandemic hasn't been the 'overreaction' it's been the constant failure with respect to basic counter-factual reasoning

Pandemics don’t end with a parade or armistice. They end when the disease fades into the background & other pressing daily problems take priority. This will happen (& is already happening) in various countries based on the national context.

https://hackmd.io/@scibehC19vax/home… Short update to the @jitsuvax and @SciBeh COVID-19 Communication Handbook. Using the Fact-Sandwich #Debunking2020 to correct some additional myths about COVID-19: Fact Myth Explanation Fact.

If anyone likes anecdotes and has concerns about the covid vaccine and fertility - let me tell you without question it does NOT cause infertility

https://twitter.com/evebmd/status/1446813833293705222?s=21… We published papers @sweetchinchilla and along with our interns, we presented at conferences across the country @SUInfodemic @NLM_NIH @SocietyGIM

@IMPACT4HC #ThisIsOurShot

Pay careful attention to who is out there expressing *outrage* that Twitter banned Malone Hint: The Brownstone Institute, the new iteration of the Great Barrington Declaration, is outraged I know, you’re shocked! Just shocked!

Good things sometimes do happen One of the world's worst peddlers of dangerous vaccine disinformation His supporters will scream "censorship!" but I for one am happy that his horrific nonsense about vaccines won't feature on Twitter

The original document (https://web.archive.org/web/20211227215943/https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html…) was self-contradictory on this point. The December 29th revision specifies clearly that symptomatic individuals can exit isolation after 5 days provided that "their symptoms are resolving."

When the antivaccine disinformation crowd declares twisted martyrdom when bumped from social media or condemned publicly: they contributed to the tragic and needless loss of 200,000 unvaccinated Americans since June who believed their antiscience gibberish. They’re the aggressors

La desinformación contra las vacunas contribuyó a la trágica e innecesaria pérdida de 200.000 estadounidenses que se creyeron sus galimatías anticientíficas desde junio.

Bonjour @19h30RTS, voici l'évolution des infections pour Denmark, Switzerland, France, Unitedkingdom :

there is going to be a lot of redefining "herd immunity" in the coming months

Do wish our politicians including @Keir_Starmer @NicolaSturgeon would watch these @bmj_latest #covidunknowns and some of our @IndependentSage colleagues too. Might have prevented a lot of harm. Need to refocus on health care capacity and social determinants.

Omicron is illustrating "herd immunity" as how it was introduced: a relative concept, that reduces the adverse outcome of infections within populations, not as an absolute threshold that stopped transmission; as @bmj_latest #covidunknowns webinar explains

excuse me....am i wrong or you didnt control for previous infection of the vaxxed? if that is the case how can you "isolate" Omicron only neutralisation of previous variants? hence...how can you say Omicron infection alone displace delta? beyond the survivor bias issue

His lies, his illogical defense, and his hubris damage all professional athletes

Aaron Rodgers Didn't Just Lie