- Jun 2021
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epjdatascience.springeropen.com epjdatascience.springeropen.com
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Baghal, T. A., Wenz, A., Sloan, L., & Jessop, C. (2021). Linking Twitter and survey data: Asymmetry in quantity and its impact. EPJ Data Science, 10(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00286-7
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bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com
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Crocker-Buque, T., & Mounier-Jack, S. (2018). Vaccination in England: A review of why business as usual is not enough to maintain coverage. BMC Public Health, 18(1), 1351. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-6228-5
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pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Betsch, C., & Sachse, K. (2013). Debunking vaccination myths: Strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks. Health Psychology: Official Journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association, 32(2), 146–155. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0027387
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academic-oup-com.ezproxy.rice.edu academic-oup-com.ezproxy.rice.edu
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. For example, if a miscalling occurs at the end of a hairpin in a top strand read, the bottom strand read would correctly basecall this sequence before the hairpin is encountered
strand bias example
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Gugerty, L., Shreeves, M., & Dumessa, N. (2021). Biased belief updating in causal reasoning about COVID-19. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/bfw76
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- May 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Agarwal, A. (2021). The Accidental Checkmate: Understanding the Intent behind sharing Misinformation on Social Media. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/kwu58
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Salvador, C. E., Berg, M. K., Yu, Q., San Martin, A., & Kitayama, S. (2020). Relational Mobility Predicts Faster Spread of COVID-19: A 39-Country Study. Psychological Science, 31(10), 1236–1244. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620958118
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Dunn, E. W., Chen, L., Proulx, J. D. E., Ehrlinger, J., & Savalei, V. (2021). Can Researchers’ Personal Characteristics Shape Their Statistical Inferences? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 47(6), 969–984. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220950522
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threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
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Examples of this sort of non-logical behaviour used to represent identity can be found in fiction in:
- Dr. Seuss' The Butter Battle Book (Random House,1984) which is based on
- the war between Lilliput and Blefuscu in Jonathan Swift's 1726 satire Gulliver's Travels, which was based on an argument over the correct end to crack an egg once soft-boiled.
It almost seems related to creating identity politics as bike-shedding because the real issues are so complex that most people can't grasp all the nuances, so it's easier to choose sides based on some completely other heuristic. Changing sides later on causes too much cognitive dissonance, so once on a path, one must stick to it.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Zhao, W. J., Coady, A., & Bhatia, S. (2021). Computational mechanisms for context-based behavioral interventions: A large-scale analysis. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8cyad
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Young, K. S., Purves, K. L., Huebel, C., Davies, M., Thompson, K. N., Bristow, S., Krebs, G., Danese, A., Hirsch, C., Parsons, C. E., Vassos, E., Adey, B., Bright, S., Hegemann, L., Lee, Y. T., Kalsi, G., Monssen, D., Mundy, J., Peel, A., … Breen, G. (2021). Depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/sf7b6
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Yee, A. (n.d.). COVID’s Outsize Impact on Asian Americans Is Being Ignored. Scientific American. Retrieved May 14, 2021, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covids-outsize-impact-on-asian-americans-is-being-ignored/
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open.lnu.se open.lnu.se
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Niemeyer, H., Aert, R. C. M. van, Schmid, S., Uelsmann, D., Knaevelsrud, C., & Schulte-Herbrueggen, O. (2020). Publication Bias in Meta-Analyses of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Interventions. Meta-Psychology, 4. https://doi.org/10.15626/MP.2018.884
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www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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u/dawnlxh. (2021). Reviewing peer review: does the process need to change, and how?. r/BehSciAsk. Reddit
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter. (2020). Twitter. Retrieved 27 February 2021, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1339855911796543488
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Maarten van Smeden on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 4 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/MaartenvSmeden/status/1328093246829064192
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Dr. Felix Schönbrodt on Twitter. (2020). Twitter. Retrieved 4 March 2021, from https://twitter.com/nicebread303/status/1325829196883636231
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Rohrer, J. M., Schmukle, S., & McElreath, R. (2021). The Only Thing That Can Stop Bad Causal Inference Is Good Causal Inference. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mz5jx
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towardsdatascience.com towardsdatascience.com
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twitter.com twitter.com
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COVID, One Year Ago on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 1 May 2021, from https://twitter.com/covidoneyearago/status/1383888066671046657
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- Apr 2021
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Pleskac, T. J., Kyung, E., Chapman, G. B., & Urminsky, O. (2021, April 23). Single- or double-blind review? A field study of system preference, reliability, bias, and validity. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/q2tkw
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Yang, K.-C., Pierri, F., Hui, P.-M., Axelrod, D., Torres-Lugo, C., Bryden, J., & Menczer, F. (2020). The COVID-19 Infodemic: Twitter versus Facebook. ArXiv:2012.09353 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2012.09353
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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Scheel, Anne M., Mitchell R. M. J. Schijen, and Daniël Lakens. ‘An Excess of Positive Results: Comparing the Standard Psychology Literature With Registered Reports’. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 4, no. 2 (1 April 2021): 25152459211007468. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459211007467.
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blogs.bmj.com blogs.bmj.com
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Nabavi, N., & Dobson, J. (2021, April 21). Covid-19 new variants—known unknowns. The BMJ Opinion. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/04/21/covid-19-new-variants-known-unknowns/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork
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store.steampowered.com store.steampowered.com
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I admit I'm biased, having bought this game for fifty cents at the time I did. I also have a general love of mouse movement-based games, and find other options in the way of gaming, Steam and otherwise, underwhelming in supply.
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Białek, M., & Grossmann, I. (2021). Social bias insights concern judgments rather than real-world decisions. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/y3h7n
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Other physicists and mathematicians at the turn of the century came close to arriving at what is currently known as spacetime. Einstein himself noted, that with so many people unraveling separate pieces of the puzzle, "the special theory of relativity, if we regard its development in retrospect, was ripe for discovery in 1905."
Interesting. This acts as evidence for the hypothesis that environments/conditions are powerful forcing functions.
It also acts as evidence against the argument of the "lone genius".
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store.steampowered.com store.steampowered.com
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Oh, and it focuses on Russia and Eastern Europe, with cities like Olonets, Torun, Solovski, Kobuleti, Skopje etc in the Easy difficulty setting.
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Maybe use more cities from South/West Europe, too?
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store.steampowered.com store.steampowered.com
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I would be really proud to show it off it was "my baby", but as a player, it's incredibly boring.
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- Mar 2021
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en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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Such research drew from Baruch Fischhoff's work in 1975 surrounding hindsight bias, a cognitive bias that knowing the outcome of a certain event makes it seem more predictable than may actually be true.[5] Research conducted by Fischhoff revealed that participants did not know that their outcome knowledge affected their responses, and, if they did know, they could still not ignore or defeat the effects of the bias.
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Qian, M., Chou, S.-Y., & Lai, E. K. (2020). Confirmatory bias in health decisions: Evidence from the MMR-autism controversy. Journal of Health Economics, 70, 102284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2019.102284
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link.springer.com link.springer.com
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Giubilini, A., Caviola, L., Maslen, H., Douglas, T., Nussberger, A.-M., Faber, N., Vanderslott, S., Loving, S., Harrison, M., & Savulescu, J. (2019). Nudging Immunity: The Case for Vaccinating Children in School and Day Care by Default. HEC Forum, 31(4), 325–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10730-019-09383-7
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Bish, A., Yardley, L., Nicoll, A., & Michie, S. (2011). Factors associated with uptake of vaccination against pandemic influenza: A systematic review. Vaccine, 29(38), 6472–6484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.107
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Bonder, Taly, Ido Erev, and Elliot Ludvig. ‘On the Impact of Germs and Demons’. PsyArXiv, 10 March 2021. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/vscz4.
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Coenen, A., & Gureckis, T. (2021). The distorting effects of deciding to stop sampling information. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/tbrea
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Griffith, G. J., Morris, T. T., Tudball, M. J., Herbert, A., Mancano, G., Pike, L., Sharp, G. C., Sterne, J., Palmer, T. M., Davey Smith, G., Tilling, K., Zuccolo, L., Davies, N. M., & Hemani, G. (2020). Collider bias undermines our understanding of COVID-19 disease risk and severity. Nature Communications, 11(1), 5749. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19478-2
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www.sitepoint.com www.sitepoint.com
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The elimination of what is arguably the biggest monoculture in the history of software development would mean that we, the community, could finally take charge of both languages and run-times, and start to iterate and grow these independently of browser/server platforms, vendors, and organizations, all pulling in different directions, struggling for control of standards, and (perhaps most importantly) freeing the entire community of developers from the group pressure of One Language To Rule Them All.
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JavaScript needs to fly from its comfy nest, and learn to survive on its own, on equal terms with other languages and run-times. It’s time to grow up, kid.
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If JavaScript were detached from the client and server platforms, the pressure of being a monoculture would be lifted — the next iteration of the JavaScript language or run-time would no longer have to please every developer in the world, but instead could focus on pleasing a much smaller audience of developers who love JavaScript and thrive with it, while enabling others to move to alternative languages or run-times.
Tags
- single responsibility
- separation of concerns
- programming languages
- competition in open-source software
- independent release cycles among peer dependencies
- related but independent projects that can be developed independently
- programming languages: choosing the best language for the job
- avoid giving partiality/advantage/bias to any specific option
- level playing field
- good idea
- software freedom
- JavaScript: as a process VM
- one size fits all mentality
- neutral/unbiased/agnostic
- runtime environment
- neutral ground
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Cailin O’Connor. (2020, November 10). Using agent-based methods we show how even modest contact between disciplines can allow better methods to spread. This is because outsiders can award academic credit to those using good methods, leading to their uptake. 5 [Tweet]. @cailinmeister. https://twitter.com/cailinmeister/status/1326229762533060608
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Unrealistic optimism about future life events: A cautionary note. (n.d.). Retrieved March 4, 2021, from https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2010-22979-001.pdf?auth_token=a25fd4b7f008a50b15fd7b0f1fdb222fc38373f4
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 9). Session 2: The policy interface followed with a really helpful presentation by Lindsey Pike, from Bristol, and then panel discussion with Mirjam Jenny (Robert Koch Insitute), Paulina Lang (UK Cabinet Office), Rachel McCloy (Reading Uni.), and Rene van Bavel (European Commission) [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1325795286065815552
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indi.ca indi.ca
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indi.ca. (2020, July 20). COVID Underdogs: Mongolia. Medium. https://indi.ca/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2
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- Feb 2021
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link.aps.org link.aps.org
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Wang, X., Sirianni, A. D., Tang, S., Zheng, Z., & Fu, F. (2020). Public Discourse and Social Network Echo Chambers Driven by Socio-Cognitive Biases. Physical Review X, 10(4), 041042. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041042
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Chande, A., Lee, S., Harris, M., Nguyen, Q., Beckett, S. J., Hilley, T., Andris, C., & Weitz, J. S. (2020). Real-time, interactive website for US-county-level COVID-19 event risk assessment. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(12), 1313–1319. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-01000-9
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creativegood.com creativegood.com
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UX is now "user exploitation."
The dark arts of dark patterns and exploiting cognitive biases.
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skepticalscience.com skepticalscience.com
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Konstantinos, A. (2021). Tips on countering conspiracy theories and misinformaton. CommsFlyer.
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www.lever.co www.lever.co
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When hiring managers believed a woman had children because “Parent-Teacher Association coordinator appeared on her resume, she was 79% less likely to be hired. If she was hired, she would be offered an average of $11,000 less in salary.
I recall when learning how to do interviews once, the person who was helping me made a comment along the lines of -
one of the things I look for is an engagement ring, as it's a sign that they are getting married soon - and want the job just to get mat leave
I remember being rather shocked by that statement, and I didn't speak up about it at that time directly - although did push back against it a bit, but it's one of those memories that really stood out as 'wow, that is kind of messed up'
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Someone from another department incorrectly assumes that the man on your team is the leader. Gently correct the assumption and underscore your leader’s accomplishments. For example, “[Name] is our team lead. She heads all our biggest sales efforts.”
I've seen this happen before - assuming that the male is the leader, or the one that had the idea - and can diminish the recognition of the right people.
Correcting this on the spot can be done quickly
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“Gender bias holds women back from being hired and advancing in their careers. It’s important to be aware of how that manifests,” says Raena Saddler from Lean In. That’s why Lean In created an activity that helps you combat gender bias at work. It’s called 50 Ways to Fight Bias, and the digital versions are free. Raena explains, “This activity is an engaging way to think through your own biases and call out and navigate bias when you see it in the wild.”
we all have biases, conscious and unconscious - being aware of these, and knowing at what points to look out for them is important.
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Safra, L., Chevallier, C., & Sijilmassi, A. (2021). Poverty and Threat Reactivity. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fp35r
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www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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Hodcroft, E. B., Domman, D. B., Oguntuyo, K., Snyder, D. J., Diest, M. V., Densmore, K. H., Schwalm, K. C., Femling, J., Carroll, J. L., Scott, R. S., Whyte, M. M., Edwards, M. D., Hull, N. C., Kevil, C. G., Vanchiere, J. A., Lee, B., Dinwiddie, D. L., Cooper, V. S., & Kamil, J. P. (2021). Emergence in late 2020 of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variants affecting amino acid position 677. MedRxiv, 2021.02.12.21251658. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.12.21251658
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Lakens, D. (2019, November 18). The Value of Preregistration for Psychological Science: A Conceptual Analysis. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/jbh4w
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qz.com qz.com
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Frame of reference has been manipulatedCrime statistics are often manipulated for political purposes by comparing to a year when crime was very high. This can expressed either as a change (down 60% since 2004) or via an index (40, where 2004 = 100). In either of these cases, 2004 may or may not be an appropriate year for comparison. It could have been an unusually high crime year.This also happens when comparing places. If I want to make one country look bad, I simply express the data about it relative to whichever country which is doing the best.This problem tends to crop up in subjects where people have a strong confirmation bias. (“Just as I thought, crime is up!”) Whenever possible try comparing rates from several different starting points to see how the numbers shift. And whatever you do, don’t use this technique yourself to make a point you think is important. That’s inexcusable.
This is an important point and when politicians are speaking it, they should cite their sources meticulously.
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Group, B. M. J. P. (2021). Update to living systematic review on prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19. BMJ, 372, n236. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n236
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- Jan 2021
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Watched
[[Verna Myers]]: [[How to overcome our biases? Walk boldly toward them]] [[Ted Talk]]
Our biases can be dangerous, even deadly — as we've seen in the cases of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and Eric Garner, in Staten Island, New York. Diversity advocate Verna Myers looks closely at some of the subconscious attitudes we hold toward out-groups. She makes a plea to all people: Acknowledge your biases. Then move toward, not away from, the groups that make you uncomfortable. In a funny, impassioned, important talk, she shows us how.
"Stare at awesome black people."
Look for discomfirming data
"Walk toward your discomfort."
When you see something, have the courage to say something. ie "We don't say those things anymore."
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www.smithsonianmag.com www.smithsonianmag.com
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Artificial Intelligence Is Now Used to Predict Crime.
Artificial Intelligence
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- Dec 2020
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Stuaert Rtchie [@StuartJRitchie] (2020) This encapsulates the problem nicely. Sure, there’s a paper. But actually read it & what do you find? p-values mostly juuuust under .05 (a red flag) and a sample size that’s FAR less than “25m”. If you think this is in any way compelling evidence, you’ve totally been sold a pup. Twitter. Retrieved from:https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1305963050302877697
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podcasters.radiopublic.com podcasters.radiopublic.com
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No tech team or web guy needed!There are no complicated steps or approvals from managers and your IT department when it comes to marketing your podcast.
This seems painfully gendered. RadioPublic could do better.
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pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Lakens. D. Etz.. A. J. (2020) Too True to be Bad: When Sets of Studies With Significant and Nonsignificant Findings Are Probably True. Pubmed. Retrieved from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29276574/
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- Nov 2020
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How Algorithmic Bias Hurts People With Disabilities
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Soderberg, C. K., Errington, T., Schiavone, S. R., Bottesini, J. G., Thorn, F. S., Vazire, S., Esterling, K. M., & Nosek, B. A. (2020). Research Quality of Registered Reports Compared to the Traditional Publishing Model. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/7x9vy
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proctorio.com proctorio.com
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bias
I’d like to know what evidence Proctorio can offer to support this claim. The company often says it’s up to the teacher (or in my experience, a staff member) to review a student’s video and then decide if the behavior flagged by the algorithm as suspicious constitutes cheating. But the teacher or staff member cannot help but hold implicit biases in addition to any explicit biases they may possess. So how can Proctorio prove their software eliminates bias? And what other forms and sources of bias are built into the software?
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medium.com medium.com
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Unconscious Bias still seems to be the hottest topic right now and the most likely topic to get you started on your organization’s Diversity & Inclusion journey. Its universal and approachable nature (vs. talking about racism or privilege in plain terms, for example) might just be the key to opening many other doors to advance inclusion in the workplace.
approaching it as [[unconscious bias]] training may get the ball rolling, we need to do more than that.
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www.llresearch.org www.llresearch.org
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When a piece of fabric is cut on the bias and sewn from the bias it has a tendency to create interesting drapes and to enhance the style of a garment. It is just so with human biases. Within an incarnated human’s life there will be a continuing and continuous experience of seeing things from a particular bias or slant, and then being able to choose to rethink and re-vision and see things from the opposite bias.
This reminds me of the Train up a child verse. That part that says, "in the way he should go" is the Hebrew concept of taste or bent or what this model is calling BIAS. Which sounds even more solid, "Train up a child according to his/her bias and when they are old they won't depart from it." (Proverbs 22:6)
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There is nothing but bias. There is nothing but distortion in all of the nested illusions of your creation.
Ra used "distortion" in ways that communicated good or bad according to the hearer's "bias".
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cosmicchrist.net cosmicchrist.net
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mentally examine, as with the scalpel of a surgeon, each bias which you can remember.
Mentally examine each bias. Observing with your mind the "biases" that you adopted, adapted, accepted.
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- Oct 2020
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icla2020b.jonreeve.com icla2020b.jonreeve.com
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But she felt that even the grave bedroom knew her for what she was, shallow, tinkling, vain...
Ouch! I like how the omnipresent narrators in Mansfields' stories are so not objective, like goggles through which we must see the world. Exposed to merely a few short scenes from which we extrapolate to the characters' entire personas, our judgments are very susceptible to the narrators' stance. There's little room for us to perceive Isabel as the martyr, or her friends as exuberant rather than shallow, or William as an ignorant, sullen person who doesn't care much about his family. I wonder if/how narrators' subjectivity could be measured by inspecting adjectives in unquoted lines (e.g., how to distinguish between a description of a person in a scene and a description of a person in general).
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And though flags from this software don’t automatically mean students will be penalized—instructors can review the software’s suspicions and decide for themselves how to proceed—it leaves open the possibility that instructors’ own biases will determine whether to bring academic dishonesty charges against students. Even just an accusation could negatively affect a student’s academic record, or at the very least how their instructor perceives them and their subsequent work.
The companies are hiding behind this as a feature - that the algorithms are not supposed to be implemented without human review. I wonder how this "feature" will interact with implicit (and explicit) biases, or with the power dynamics between adjuncts, students, and departmental administration.
The companies are caught between a rock and a hard place in the decision whether students should be informed that their attempt was flagged for review, or not. We see that, if the student is informed, it causes stress and pain and damage to the teacher-student relationship. But if they're not informed, all these issues of bias and power become invisible.
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To make matters worse, her proctor kept calling her “sweetheart.”
I'd like to see more reporting on this - who exactly are these proctors we're outsourcing our teaching to? How are they screened? What's their code of conduct? How is a complaint registered?
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Rubin, M. (2020, October 20). Does preregistration improve the credibility of research findings?. https://doi.org/10.20982/tqmp.16.4.p376
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erj.ersjournals.com erj.ersjournals.com
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Martin, G. P., Sperrin, M., & Sotgiu, G. (2020). Performance of Prediction Models for Covid-19: The Caudine Forks of the External Validation. European Respiratory Journal. https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.03728-2020
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Local file Local file
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The stories added meaning that couldn’t be matched by facts and figures about the items for sale. Meaning can be very difficult to pull off in design, but sto-ries create cognitive fluency around meaning. Our minds love narratives because they love patterns; stories are like really well-packaged patterns. Beginning, middle, and end. Connect-ing that pattern to an object or action in your design can be achieved, in part, by making sure your design accommodates story—whether in the metaphorical sense of how the page is structured (i.e., the page has a clear beginning, middle, and end) or the more literal sense of actually making sure the design leaves room for text that tells a story.
This can also be leveraged to help improve one's memory.
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Student evaluations of teachers are notoriously biased against women, with women routinely receiving lower scores than their male counterparts.
I recall some work on this sort of gender bias in job recommendations as well. Remember to dig it up for reference as well.
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If the original price is horizontally farther away on the page from the sale price (Fig 2.8), the customer is more likely to view it as a better deal, even if the dollar amounts do not change. We equate visual distance with fiscal distance (http://bkaprt.com/dcb/02-19/).
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. ‘COVID-19 and the Labor Market’. Accessed 6 October 2020. https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13664/.
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- Sep 2020
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Daniël Lakens on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/lakens/status/1308115862247952386
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twitter.com twitter.com
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PhD Diaries is on Discord 💬 on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 22, 2020, from https://twitter.com/thoughtsofaphd/status/1307356715868921858
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psycnet.apa.org psycnet.apa.org
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Harris, A. J. L., & Hahn, U. (2011). Unrealistic optimism about future life events: A cautionary note. Psychological Review, 118(1), 135–154. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0020997
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 21, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1307289623526285315
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Fragkaki, I., Maciejewski, D. F., Weijman, E., Feltes, J., Cima, M. (2020). Human Responses to Covid-19: The Role of Optimism Bias, Perceived Severity, and Anxiety. 10.31234/osf.io/w4k9m
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www.newyorker.com www.newyorker.com
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Consider, for instance, the footage that has been circulating from a New York City Council hearing, held over Zoom in June, which shows Krug in her Afro-Latinx pose. She introduces herself as Jess La Bombalera, a nickname apparently of her own making, adapted from Bomba, an Afro-Puerto Rican genre of music and dance. Broadcasting live from “El Barrio,” and wearing purple-tinted shades and a hoop in her nose, she lambasts gentrifiers, shouts out her “black and brown siblings,” and twice calls out “white New Yorkers” for not yielding their speaking time. What stands out, though, is the way Krug speaks, in a patchy accent that begins with thickly rolled “R”s and transitions into what can best be described as B-movie gangster. This is where desire outruns expertise. The Times, in a piece on Krug’s exposure, last week, nonetheless called this a “Latina accent,” lending credence to Krug’s performance. (The phrase was later deleted.) The offhand notation is a tiny example of the buy-in Krug has been afforded her entire scholastic career, by advisers and committee members and editors and colleagues. They failed to recognize the gap not between real and faux, so much, as between something thrown-on and something lived-in. That inattentiveness was Krug’s escape hatch.
If nothing else, this is indicative of human cognitive bias. We'll tend to take at face value what is presented to us, but then once we "know" our confirmation bias will kick in on the other direction.
I'm curious if there were examples of anyone calling out her accent contemporaneously? We're also stuck with the bias of wanting to go with the majority view. When you're the lone voice, you're less likely to speak up. This is also evinced in the story of her previous colleagues who had "gut feelings" that something was wrong, but didn't say anything or do any research at the time.
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Facts v feelings: How to stop our emotions misleading us. (2020, September 10). The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/10/facts-v-feelings-how-to-stop-emotions-misleading-us
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outline.com outline.com
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Over time we tend to develop confirmation bias, forever seeking evidence that reinforces what we already believe, and downplaying or dismissing what doesn’t. We’re also designed, both genetically and instinctively, to put our own safety first, and to avoid taking too much risk. Rather than using our capacity for critical thinking to assess new possibilities, we often co-opt our prefrontal cortex to rationalize choices that were actually driven by our emotions.
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maxkasy.github.io maxkasy.github.io
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Kasy, M. (2020). How to run an adaptive field experiment. Retrieved from https://maxkasy.github.io/home/files/slides/adaptive_field_slides_kasy.pdf
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academic.oup.com academic.oup.com
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Kahn, R., Kennedy-Shaffer, L., Grad, Y. H., Robins, J. M., & Lipsitch, M. (n.d.). Potential Biases Arising from Epidemic Dynamics in Observational Seroprotection Studies. American Journal of Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa188
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Melnikoff, D. E., & Strohminger, N. (2020). The automatic influence of advocacy on lawyers and novices. Nature Human Behaviour, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00943-3
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Local file Local file
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loss aversion. We are way more scared of losing what we have than excited about getting something new.
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This super-sketchy experiment had one final phase, how-ever: reconciliation. After successive scenarios were deployed where the Rattlers and the Eagles had common goals (unblock-ing a shared water supply, repairing a truck, etc.) they grew closer, even splitting drinks at the end (malts, come on people). In our work, we may not call them Rattlers and Eagles. Instead, we may call them IT and Legal and Marketing. Or “weird-code-name product-team one” versus “weird-code-name product-team two”. But if organizations incentivize based on scarcity and self-interest, we might as well just call it what it is, a scaled version of the Robbers Cave experiment. And to mitigate the siloing and combat ingroup bias, we’ll have to consider following a different approach.
How can we do this for the democrats and the republicans?
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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WEIRD people have a bad habit of universalizing from their own particularities. They think everyone thinks the way they do, and some of them (not all, of course) reinforce that assumption by studying themselves. In the run-up to writing the book, Henrich and two colleagues did a literature review of experimental psychology and found that 96 percent of subjects enlisted in the research came from northern Europe, North America, or Australia. About 70 percent of those were American undergraduates. Blinded by this kind of myopia, many Westerners assume that what’s good or bad for them is good or bad for everyone else.
This is a painful reality. It's also even more specific to the current Republican party. Do as we say, not as we do.
This is the sort of example that David Dylan Thomas will appreciate.
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www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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“Motivation conditions cognition,” Jonathan Rauch, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, wisely told me. Very few Trump supporters I know are able to offer an honest appraisal of the man. To do so creates too much cognitive dissonance.
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www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
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"These little cuties are 50% Triangles, 50% Squares, and 100% slightly shapist.
Sadly, I wished they'd have used circles as I see the triangles and am perhaps primed to think that they're KKK hoods.
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www.roughtype.com www.roughtype.com
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A fascinating viewpoint on social media, journalism, and information. There are some great implied questions for web designers hiding in here.
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In discussing the appeal of the News Feed in that same interview with Kirkpatrick, Zuckerberg observed, “A squirrel dying in front of your house may be more relevant to your interests right now than people dying in Africa.” The statement is grotesque not because it’s false — it’s completely true — but because it’s a category error. It yokes together in an obscene comparison two events of radically different scale and import. And yet, in his tone-deaf way, Zuckerberg managed to express the reality of content collapse. When it comes to information, social media renders category errors obsolete.
How can we minimize this sort of bias? How can we help to increase the importance of truly important things?
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Carroll, P. (2020, August 20). The Cognitive Biases Behind Society’s Response to COVID-19 | Patrick Carroll. https://fee.org/articles/the-cognitive-biases-behind-societys-response-to-covid-19/
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Mario Elia on Twitter: “While I commend them for this work, a few things jump out at me right away looking at the data tables. The sample of the patients was heavily skewed towards a few demographics. 1/” / Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved July 11, 2020, from https://twitter.com/supermarioelia/status/1280709931235184641
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci {@SciBeh} (2020) this kind of piece behavioural scientists need to reject! A shallow understanding of the bias literature in an even shallower application to the pandemic- the idea that believing lockdowns brought down infection rates is an example of the "post hoc fallacy" is bizarre 1/3. Twitter. Retrieved from: https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1298939778340184065
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Fife, D., Lung, M., Sullivan, N., & Young, C. (2020). When Values Collide: Why Scientists Argue About Open Science and How to Move Forward [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/q9d28
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Ballard, Timothy, Ashley Luckman, and Emmanouil Konstantinidis. ‘How Meaningful Are Parameter Estimates from Models of Inter-Temporal Choice?’, 21 August 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/mvk67.
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healthjournalism.org healthjournalism.org
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Haelle, Tara. ‘Keep an Eye out for Lead-Time Bias with COVID-19 Deaths’. Association of Health Care Journalists (blog), 21 August 2020. https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2020/08/keep-an-eye-out-for-lead-time-bias-with-covid-19-deaths/.
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fortelabs.co fortelabs.co
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The real enemy of independent thinking is not any external authority, but our own inertia. We need to find ways to counteract confirmation bias – our tendency to take into account only information that confirms what we already believe. We need to regularly confront our errors, mistakes, and misunderstandings.
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www.ijidonline.com www.ijidonline.com
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Monforte, A. d’Arminio, Tavelli, A., Bai, F., Marchetti, G., & Cozzi-Lepri, A. (2020). Effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 disease: A done and dusted deal? International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 99, 75–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.07.056
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