189 Matching Annotations
  1. Jul 2022
    1. that's something that insect with a six-legged version is now it's the whole super organism oh well the ant colony is society that whole frame is actually the shadow of 01:18:52 what the evolutionary reality is which is that the ant colony is an organism not a super organism and the ants are tissues and so which level we prioritize or do we say no there's no a priori level ant is just i'm not even 01:19:05 gonna say there's anything out there called ants it's it's you how you're thinking about it or do we get lost or are we going to find a ladder in that multi-scale yeah well the latter is you know the 01:19:17 latter is active inference because it doesn't say active inference doesn't say make a make an internal model of the world that is accurate that actually accurately captures all the all the 01:19:30 details of the world of the universe that's not the point that's not what the mind does that's not the point the point is to act under uncertainty 01:19:41 given some useful model of the world act under uncertainty so that your fitness score improves and by fitness score here we essentially mean you know and anticipated uncertainty so i i would 01:19:55 very much like to be have some certainty that i'm going to be alive tomorrow and if it's freezing outside and i don't have a coat on uh you know that that becomes iffy so uh i'm going to be happy 01:20:06 if i'm going to be i'm going to go find a coat because it is going to reduce my uncertainty about survival over the next 24 hours but you can expand that you know outward right we we need to act the all organisms are acting under 01:20:19 uncertainty and and we can think about that as we can think about that um we can think from that perspective as a society of what are we doing and how do we measure 01:20:31 success well we're measuring success by acting under uncertainty and then re and then paying attention to what happens and then acting the same or differently or you know some other way or somehow some were 01:20:45 then choosing to act again in this cycle of act uh you know act uh process act process act process you know model act model act model that reminds me of course of the ooda 01:20:57 observe orient side act model and other sort of cyclic models of action and perception and then i would say that active inference provides a few nice little benefits over other phrasings of action and perception 01:21:10 qualitative and philosophical ones like inactivism as well as quantitative ones like cybernetics and other kinds of control theories so i totally agree this

      An organism acts under uncertainty to reduce it to meet its objective.

  2. Jun 2022
    1. This fundamental tension—between quality and quantity—is atension we share as knowledge workers. We also must producework to an extremely high standard, and we must do it fast,continuously, all year long. We are like sprinters who are also tryingto run a marathon.

      Do we? Really? This definitely needs reframing and books like this that play on these sorts of fears are both partially responsible, but are also preying on an atmosphere which they're propagating.

      This is the sort of sad thing that a productivity guru would say...

    1. It’s as if we need the gravitational pull of both worlds to keep us on track, locked on a good and righteous path. Without both worlds pulling on us, we would crash into one, or simply lose our way, hurtling through the universe on our own, intersecting nothing, helping no one.

      As neuroscietist Beau Lotto points out, the Anthropocene is creating greater and greater uncertainty and unpredictability, but the one human trait evolution has created to help us deal with this is the sense of awe. See my annotation on Beau Lotto's beautiful TED Talk: How we experience awe and why it matters https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2F17D5SrgBE6g%2F&group=world

      In short, the sacred is the antidote to the increase in uncertainty and unpredictability as we enter into the space of the Anthropocene. Awe can be the leverage point to the ultimate leverage point for system change that Donella Meadows pointed out many years ago- it can lead to rapid shift in paradigms, worldviews and value systems needed to shift the system.

    1. So when we step into uncertainty, our bodies respond physiologically and mentally. 00:03:40 Your immune system will start deteriorating. Your brain cells wither and even die. Your creativity and intelligence decrease. We often go from fear to anger, almost too often. Why? Because fear is a state of certainty. You become morally judgmental. You become an extreme version of yourself. If you're a conservative, you become more conservative. If you're a liberal, you become more liberal. 00:04:06 Because you go to a place of familiarity. The problem is that the world changes. And we have to adapt or die. And if you want to shift from A to B, the first step is not B. The first step is to go from A to not A -- to let go of your bias and assumptions; to step into the very place that our brain evolved to avoid; to step into the place of the unknown.

      Uncertainty is uncomfortable and can drive us into ingroup/outgroup formation. It can, in other words, lead to greater social polarization.

      Adaptation requires us to step into the unknown. Big changes in our lives therefore require us to go from the familiar and comfortable space, to the unfamiliar and uncomfortable - movement away from our comfort zone, as is happening as the polycrisis we face gains traction.

  3. Apr 2022
    1. Dr. Deepti Gurdasani [@dgurdasani1]. (2021, December 14). So those critiquing others for being too certain (I get subtweeted a lot for this)- Am I certain about the exact impact of omicron in the UK? Not at all Am I certain it’ll be high impact? Quite Am I certain we should act now? Absolutely [Tweet]. Twitter. https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1470828234480701443

    1. Julia Raifman. (2021, July 25). Policymakers are pointing fingers at “the unvaccinated” What if they gave them a hand instead? - Bring vax & food to workplaces, schools, homes -Fund local doctors, including pediatricians, to call patients & deliver vax—Learn from success of Indian Health Service approach [Tweet]. @JuliaRaifman. https://twitter.com/JuliaRaifman/status/1419288641885593604

  4. Feb 2022
  5. Jan 2022
    1. Goodhart's law is an adage often stated as "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure".[1] It is named after British economist Charles Goodhart, who advanced the idea in a 1975 article on monetary policy in the United Kingdom:[2][3] .mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 40px}.mw-parser-output .templatequote .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;padding-left:1.6em;margin-top:0}Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.

      We measure what we find important.

      Measures can and often become self-fulfilling targets. (read: Rankings and Reactivity by W. Espeland and M. Sauder https://www.stmarys-ca.edu/sites/default/files/attachments/files/rankings-and-reactivity-2007.pdf)

      When a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a good measure.

      So why measure?

      Is observation and measurement part of a larger complex process which isn't finished until the process itself is finished?

      This seems related to the measurement problem in quantum mechanics, Schrödinger's cat, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, and the observer effect).

  6. Dec 2021
  7. Nov 2021
  8. Oct 2021
  9. Sep 2021
  10. Aug 2021
    1. we find that fixing fossil ages to the midpoint or a random point drawn from within the stratigraphic age range leads to biases in divergence time estimates, while sampling fossil ages leads to estimates that are similar to inferences that employ the correct ages of fossils. Second, we show a comparison using an empirical dataset of extant and fossil cetaceans, which confirms that different methods of handling fossil age uncertainty lead to large differences in estimated node ages

      dealing with uncertainties carefully actually matters

    1. Stop trying to connect all the dots ahead of time. Embrace uncertainty and start doing. “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life." - Steve Jobs

      decent write up, solid concluding quote.

    1. Before you go like “Wow!!!”, understand that the packages highlighted above take a lot into consideration when detecting timezones. This makes them slightly more accurate than Intl API alone.

      What exactly does moment do for us, then, that


      doesn't do? Name one example where it is more accurate.

  11. Jul 2021
  12. Jun 2021
  13. May 2021
    1. Career decision making involves so much uncertainty that it’s easy to feel paralysed. Instead, make some hypotheses about which option is best, then identify key uncertainties: what information would most change your best guess?

      We tend to think that uncertainties can't be weighted in our decision-making, but we bet on uncertainties all the time. Rather than throw your hands up and say, "I don't have enough information to make a call", how can we think deliberately about what information would reduce the uncertainty?

    2. think of your career as a series of experiments designed to help you learn about yourself and test out potentially great longer-term paths

      I wonder if there's a connection here to Duke, A. (2019). Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. Portfolio.

      I haven't read the book but it's on my list.

  14. Mar 2021
  15. Feb 2021
    1. In object-oriented programming, information hiding (by way of nesting of types) reduces software development risk by shifting the code's dependency on an uncertain implementation (design decision) onto a well-defined interface. Clients of the interface perform operations purely through it so if the implementation changes, the clients do not have to change.
  16. Dec 2020
  17. Oct 2020
    1. The Y-intercept of the SML is equal to the risk-free interest rate. The slope of the SML is equal to the market risk premium and reflects the risk return tradeoff at a given time: S M L : E ( R i ) = R f + β i [ E ( R M ) − R f ] {\displaystyle \mathrm {SML} :E(R_{i})=R_{f}+\beta _{i}[E(R_{M})-R_{f}]\,} where: E(Ri) is an expected return on security E(RM) is an expected return on market portfolio M β is a nondiversifiable or systematic risk RM is a market rate of return Rf is a risk-free rate

      This is one statement of the key relationship.

      The point is that the market will have a single tradeoff between unavoidable (nondiversifiable) risk and return.

      Asset's returns must reflect this, according to the theory. Their prices will be bid up (or down), until this is the case ... the 'arbitrage' process.

      Why? Because (assuming borrowing/lending at a risk free rate) *any investor can achieve a particular return for a given risk level simply by buying the 'diversified market basket' and leveraging this (for more risk) or investing the remainder in the risk free-asseet (for less risk). (And she can do no better than this.)

    2. This abnormal extra return above the market's return at a given level of risk is what is called the alpha.

      this is why you here the stock-touts bragging about their 'alpha'

    1. Capital asset pricing model

      please read this article

    2. quantity beta (β)

      You hear about this 'beta' all the time as the measure of 'the correlation of the risk of an asset with the representative market basket'...

      but confusingly, \(\beta\) is used to represent the slope of the expected return of an asset as this risk increases.

    1. If the fraction q {\displaystyle q} of a one-unit (e.g. one-million-dollar) portfolio is placed in asset X and the fraction 1 − q {\displaystyle 1-q} is placed in Y, the stochastic portfolio return is q x + ( 1 − q ) y {\displaystyle qx+(1-q)y} . If x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} are uncorrelated, the variance of portfolio return is var ( q x + ( 1 − q ) y ) = q 2 σ x 2 + ( 1 − q ) 2 σ y 2 {\displaystyle {\text{var}}(qx+(1-q)y)=q^{2}\sigma _{x}^{2}+(1-q)^{2}\sigma _{y}^{2}} . The variance-minimizing value of q {\displaystyle q} is q = σ y 2 / [ σ x 2 + σ y 2 ] {\displaystyle q=\sigma _{y}^{2}/[\sigma _{x}^{2}+\sigma _{y}^{2}]} , which is strictly between 0 {\displaystyle 0} and 1 {\displaystyle 1} . Using this value of q {\displaystyle q} in the expression for the variance of portfolio return gives the latter as σ x 2 σ y 2 / [ σ x 2 + σ y 2 ] {\displaystyle \sigma _{x}^{2}\sigma _{y}^{2}/[\sigma _{x}^{2}+\sigma _{y}^{2}]} , which is less than what it would be at either of the undiversified values q = 1 {\displaystyle q=1} and q = 0 {\displaystyle q=0} (which respectively give portfolio return variance of σ x 2 {\displaystyle \sigma _{x}^{2}} and σ y 2 {\displaystyle \sigma _{y}^{2}} ). Note that the favorable effect of diversification on portfolio variance would be enhanced if x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} were negatively correlated but diminished (though not eliminated) if they were positively correlated.

      Key building block formulae.

      • Start with 'what happens to the variance when we combine two assets (uncorrelated with same expected return)'

      • What are the variance minimizing shares and what is the resulting variance of the portfolio.

    2. Similarly, a 1985 book reported that most value from diversification comes from the first 15 or 20 different stocks in a portfolio.[6]

      the conventional wisdom is that there are sharply diminishing returns to this diversification

    1. This balancing act needs to take into account project complexity (size, distribution, etc.), uncertainty (risk, innovation need, etc.), and the cost of change at the project level and for each major component.
  18. Sep 2020
    1. The challenge is to find a way to live with uncertainty,

      Finding a way to be okay with uncertainty in life is a challenge for many people. I struggle with this as well. But over the last few months I have found various ways to cope with the anxiety caused by uncertainty. Because the world we live in today is full of uncertainties.

    1. Hennessy, E. A., Acabchuk, R., Arnold, P. A., Dunn, A. G., Foo, Y. Z., Johnson, B. T., Geange, S. R., Haddaway, N. R., Nakagawa, S., Mapanga, W., Mengersen, K., Page, M. J., Sánchez-Tójar, A., Welch, V., & McGuinness, L. A. (2020). Ensuring Prevention Science Research is Synthesis-Ready for Immediate and Lasting Scientific Impact [Preprint]. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/ptg9j

    1. Siemieniuk, R. A., Bartoszko, J. J., Ge, L., Zeraatkar, D., Izcovich, A., Kum, E., Pardo-Hernandez, H., Rochwerg, B., Lamontagne, F., Han, M. A., Liu, Q., Agarwal, A., Agoritsas, T., Chu, D. K., Couban, R., Darzi, A., Devji, T., Fang, B., Fang, C., … Brignardello-Petersen, R. (2020). Drug treatments for covid-19: Living systematic review and network meta-analysis. BMJ, 370. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2980

  19. Aug 2020
    1. Altig, D., Baker, S. R., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Davis, S. J., Leather, J., Meyer, B. H., Mihaylov, E., Mizen, P., Parker, N. B., Renault, T., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Working Paper No. 27418; Working Paper Series). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27418

  20. Jul 2020