1,402 Matching Annotations
  1. Oct 2020
    1. 2020-09-30

    2. Djordjević, S., & Dobovšek, B. (2020). Organised crime in Western Balkans Six at the onset of coronavirus. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSSP-06-2020-0229

    3. 10.1108/IJSSP-06-2020-0229
    4. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the consequences of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into crime-fighting and present new criminal landscapes in the Western Balkans Six (WB6) (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) at the beginning of the pandemic crisis. Design/methodology/approach The paper builds on the content analysis of legal acts, strategic documents, academic articles, media reporting, official documents, four semi-structured interviews with civil society organisations, two consultations with police officers and two consultations with civil society organisations. Findings In the first nine weeks of the spread of COVID-19, the WB6 experienced a small rise in the price of marijuana. The same applied to stimulant drugs like ecstasy and amphetamines. However, very little heroin was available. Prices of protective face masks, disinfectants and medicinal alcohol skyrocketed due to attempts at price gouging. There were cases of scams using mobile and digital technologies, as well as burglaries of newspaper or cigarette kiosks, shops, pharmacies and exchange offices. It was difficult to determine whether the smuggling of and trafficking in human beings experienced a decline or increase. No cases of sexual exploitation for providing online services were noted, although the number of calls made to organisations that assist in the area of human trafficking increased. People with drug and alcohol problems, persons living with HIV, those susceptible to stress, citizens with mental health problems, pensioners, the poor, the homeless and recently released prisoners were the biggest potential victims of crime at the onset of the crisis brought by the pandemic. Research limitations/implications The research findings are limited to specific forms of crime (illicit drug trade, economic crime, fraud, scams, theft, smuggling of and trafficking in human beings) in the WB6 and based on findings from four interviews and four consultations, together with available secondary data. Originality/value This is the first overview of criminal activities occurring in the WB6 during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
    5. Organised crime in Western Balkans Six at the onset of coronavirus
    1. 2020-08

    2. Balleer, A., Link, S., Menkhoff, M., & Zorn, P. (2020). Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the COVID-19 Pandemic. IZA Discussion Paper, 13568.

    3. 13568
    4. We study price-setting behavior in German firm-level survey data to infer the relative importance of supply and demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Supply and demand forces coexist, but demand shortages dominate in the short run. A reported negative impact of Covid-19 on current business is associated with a rise in the probability to decrease prices up to eleven percentage points. These results imply a role for aggregate demand stabilization policy to buffer the economic consequences of Covid-19 while containing the pandemic.
    5. Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    1. 2020-08

    2. Kim, M. J., & Lee, S. (2020). Can Stimulus Checks Boost an Economy under COVID-19? Evidence from South Korea. IZA Discussion Paper, 13567.

    3. 13567
    4. Various countries have implemented transfer programs to individuals since the Covid-19 outbreaks. However, the extent to which such transfers alleviate economic recessions is unclear. This paper analyzes a South Korean program, which provided vouchers redeemable only at small local businesses. We find that, due to the program, over 30% of households across all income groups increased their food and overall household spending, but the usage restriction may have affected consumer choice, distorting business competition. While the employment and sales of small businesses improved, the program’s fiscal sustainability is in question because of the large tax exemption.
    5. Can Stimulus Checks Boost an Economy under COVID-19? Evidence from South Korea
    1. 2020-08

    2. Alon, T., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J., & Tertilt, M. (2020). This Time It’s Different: The Role of Women’s Employment in a Pandemic Recession. IZA Discussion Paper, 13562.

    3. 13562
    4. In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the opposite is true: unemployment is higher among women. In this paper, we analyze the causes and consequences of this phenomenon. We argue that women have experienced sharp employment losses both because their employment is concentrated in heavily affected sectors such as restaurants, and due to increased childcare needs caused by school and daycare closures, preventing many women from working. We analyze the repercussions of this trend using a quantitative macroeconomic model featuring heterogeneity in gender, marital status, childcare needs, and human capital. Our quantitative analysis suggests that a pandemic recession will i) feature a strong transmission from employment to aggregate demand due to diminished within-household insurance; ii) result in a widening of the gender wage gap throughout the recovery; and iii) contribute to a weakening of the gender norms that currently produce a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in home work and childcare.
    5. This Time It’s Different: The Role of Women’s Employment in a Pandemic Recession
    1. 2020-07

    2. Abel, M., Byker, T., & Carpenter, J. (2020). Socially Optimal Mistakes? Debiasing COVID-19 Mortality Risk Perceptions and Prosocial Behavior. IZA Discussion Paper, 13560.

    3. 13560
    4. The perception of risk affects how people behave during crises. We conduct a series of experiments to explore how people form COVID-19 mortality risk beliefs and the implications for prosocial behavior. We first document that people overestimate their own risk and that of young people, while underestimating the risk old people face. We show that the availability heuristic contributes to these biased beliefs. Using information about the actual risk to debias people’s own risk perception does not affect donations to the Centers for Disease Control but does decrease the amount of time invested in learning how to protect older people. This constitutes a debiasing social dilemma. Additionally providing information on the risk for the elderly, however, counteracts these negative effects. Importantly, debiasing seems to operate through the subjective categorization of and emotional response to new information.
    5. Socially Optimal Mistakes? Debiasing COVID-19 Mortality Risk Perceptions and Prosocial Behavior
    1. 2020-07

    2. Huebener, M., Waights, S., Spiess, C. K., Siegel, N. A., & Wagner, G. G. (2020). Parental Well-Being in Times of COVID-19 in Germany. IZA Discussion Paper, 13556.

    3. 13556
    4. We examine the differential effects of Covid-19 and related restrictions on individuals with dependent children in Germany. We specifically focus on the role of school and day care center closures, which may be regarded as a “disruptive exogenous shock” to family life. We make use of a novel representative survey of parental well-being collected in May and June 2020 in Germany, when schools and day care centers were closed but while other measures had been relaxed and new infections were low. In our descriptive analysis, we compare well-being during this period with a pre-crisis period for different groups. In a difference-in-differences design, we compare the change for individuals with children to the change for individuals without children, accounting for unrelated trends as well as potential survey mode and context effects. We find that the crisis lowered the relative well-being of individuals with children, especially for individuals with young children, for women, and for persons with lower secondary schooling qualifications. Our results suggest that public policy measures taken to contain Covid-19 can have large effects on family well-being, with implications for child development and parental labor market outcomes.
    5. Parental Well-Being in Times of COVID-19 in Germany
    1. 2020-07

    2. Decerf, B., Ferreira, F. H. G., Mahler, D. G., & Sterck, O. (2020). Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic. IZA Discussion Paper, 13549.

    3. This paper evaluates the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two dierent scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, estimates of LYs and PYs are compared across countries for different scenarios. Three main ndings arise. First, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) has generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, the dominance of poverty over mortality is reversed in a counterfactual herd immunity scenario: without any policy intervention, LYs tend to be greater than PYs, and the overall welfare losses are greater.
    4. 13549
    5. Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic
    1. 2020-10

    2. Kowalik, Z., & Lewandowski, P. (2020). The Gender Gap in Aversion to COVID-19 Exposure: Evidence from Professional Tennis. IZA Discussion Paper, 13768.

    3. 13768
    4. We study the gender differences in aversion to COVID-19 exposure. We use a natural experiment of the 2020 US Open, which was organized in the country with the highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and was the first major professional tennis tournament that was held after the season had been paused for six months. We analyze the gender gap in the propensity to voluntarily withdraw because of COVID-19 concerns among players who were eligible and fit to play. We find that female players were significantly more likely than male players to have withdrawn from the 2020 US Open. While players from countries characterized by relatively high levels of trust and patience and relatively low levels of risk-taking were more likely to have withdrawn than their counterparts from other countries, female players exhibited significantly higher levels of aversion to pandemic exposure than male players even after cross-country differences in preferences are accounted for. About 15% of the probability of withdrawing that is explained by our model can be attributed to gender.
    5. The Gender Gap in Aversion to COVID-19 Exposure: Evidence from Professional Tennis
  2. Sep 2020
    1. 2020-09-16

    2. Jarvis, T., Weiman, S., & Johnson, D. (2020). Reimagining scientific conferences during the pandemic and beyond. Science Advances, 6(38), eabe5815. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe5815

    3. In this spirit, Keystone Symposia has reimagined the scientific conference, leveraging emerging digital media technologies to connect scientists in new ways with our eSymposia series. Through this innovative platform, we will continue to catalyze discovery and accelerate breakthroughs. Despite inherent limitations to virtual interfaces, valuable benefits have also emerged.
    4. 10.1126/sciadv.abe5815
    5. Reimagining scientific conferences during the pandemic and beyond
    1. 2020-09-19

    2. Bertana, A., Chetverikov, A., Bergen, R. S. van, Ling, S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2020). Dual strategies in human confidence judgments. BioRxiv, 2020.09.17.299743. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.17.299743

    3. Although confidence is commonly believed to be an essential element in decision making, it remains unclear what gives rise to one’s sense of confidence. Recent Bayesian theories propose that confidence is computed, in part, from the degree of uncertainty in sensory evidence. Alternatively, observers can use physical properties of the stimulus as a heuristic to confidence. In the current study, we developed ideal observer models for either hypothesis and compared their predictions against human data obtained from psychophysical experiments. Participants reported the orientation of a stimulus, and their confidence in this estimate, under varying levels of internal and external noise. As predicted by the Bayesian model, we found a consistent link between confidence and behavioral variability for a given stimulus orientation. Confidence was higher when orientation estimates were more precise, for both internal and external sources of noise. However, we observed the inverse pattern when comparing between stimulus orientations: although observers gave more precise orientation estimates for cardinal orientations (a phenomenon known as the oblique effect), they were more confident about oblique orientations. We show that these results are well explained by a strategy to confidence that is based on the perceived amount of noise in the stimulus. Altogether, our results suggest that confidence is not always computed from the degree of uncertainty in one’s perceptual evidence, but can instead be based on visual cues that function as simple heuristics to confidence.
    4. Dual strategies in human confidence judgments
    5. 10.1101/2020.09.17.299743
    1. 2020-09-08

    2. Heiler, G., Hanbury, A., & Filzmoser, P. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on relative changes in aggregated mobility using mobile-phone data. ArXiv:2009.03798 [Physics, Stat]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03798

    3. arXiv:2009.03798
    4. Evaluating relative changes leads to additional insights which would remain hidden when only evaluating absolute changes. We analyze a dataset describing mobility of mobile phones in Austria before, during COVID-19 lock-down measures until recent. By applying compositional data analysis we show that formerly hidden information becomes available: we see that the elderly population groups increase relative mobility and that the younger groups especially on weekends also do not decrease their mobility as much as the others.
    5. The impact of COVID-19 on relative changes in aggregated mobility using mobile-phone data
    1. 2020-09-08

    2. Anderson-Carpenter, K. D., & Neal, Z. (2020). Racial disparities in COVID-19 impacts in Michigan, USA [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/v2jda

    3. Several racial disparities have been observed in the impacts of COVID-19 in the United States. In this paper, we used a representative sample of adults in Michigan to examine differences in COVID-19 impacts on Blacks and Whites in four domains: direct, perceived, political, and behavioral. We found that in the initial wave of the outbreak in May 2020, Blacks were more likely to be diagnosed or know someone who was diagnosed, or more likely to lose their job compared to Whites. Additionally, Blacks differed significantly from Whites in their assessment of COVID-19’s threat to public health and the economy, the adequacy of government responses to COVID-19, and the appropriateness of behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19’s spread. Although in many cases these views of COVID-19 were also associated with political ideology, this association was significantly stronger for Whites than Blacks. We conclude by discussing the implications of an ongoing and highly politicized public health crisis that has racially disparate impacts in multiple domains.
    4. 10.31234/osf.io/v2jda
    5. Racial disparities in COVID-19 impacts in Michigan, USA
    1. 2020-09-08

    2. Betsch, C., Korn, L., Sprengholz, P., Felgendreff, L., Eitze, S., Schmid, P., & Böhm, R. (2020). Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(36), 21851–21853. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011674117

    3. Mandatory and voluntary mask policies may have yet unknown social and behavioral consequences related to the effectiveness of the measure, stigmatization, and perceived fairness. Serial cross-sectional data (April 14 to May 26, 2020) from nearly 7,000 German participants demonstrate that implementing a mandatory policy increased actual compliance despite moderate acceptance; mask wearing correlated positively with other protective behaviors. A preregistered experiment (n = 925) further indicates that a voluntary policy would likely lead to insufficient compliance, would be perceived as less fair, and could intensify stigmatization. A mandatory policy appears to be an effective, fair, and socially responsible solution to curb transmissions of airborne viruses.
    4. 10.1073/pnas.2011674117
    5. Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
    1. 2020-09-08

    2. Kim, E., Shepherd, M. E., & Clinton, J. D. (2020). The effect of big-city news on rural America during the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(36), 22009–22014. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009384117

    3. Can “urban-centric” local television news coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic affect the behavior of rural residents with lived experiences so different from their “local” news coverage? Leveraging quasi-random geographic variation in media markets for 771 matched rural counties, we show that rural residents are more likely to practice social distancing if they live in a media market that is more impacted by COVID-19. Individual-level survey responses from residents of these counties confirm county-level behavioral differences and help attribute the differences we identify to differences in local television news coverage—self-reported differences only exist among respondents who prefer watching local news, and there are no differences in media usage or consumption across media markets. Although important for showing the ability of local television news to affect behavior despite urban–rural differences, the media-related effects we identify are at most half the size of the differences related to partisan differences.
    4. 10.1073/pnas.2009384117
    5. The effect of big-city news on rural America during the COVID-19 pandemic
    1. 2020-08-26

    2. O’Driscoll, M., Santos, G. R. D., Wang, L., Cummings, D. A. T., Azman, A. S., Paireau, J., Fontanet, A., Cauchemez, S., & Salje, H. (2020). Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries. MedRxiv, 2020.08.24.20180851. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851

    3. The number of COVID-19 deaths is often used as a key indicator of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic size. 42 However, heterogeneous burdens in nursing homes and variable reporting of deaths in elderly 43 individuals can hamper comparisons of deaths and the number of infections associated with them 44 across countries. Using age-specific death data from 45 countries, we find that relative differences 45 in the number of deaths by age amongst individuals aged <65 years old are highly consistent across 46 locations. Combining these data with data from 15 seroprevalence surveys we demonstrate how 47 age-specific infection fatality ratios (IFRs) can be used to reconstruct infected population 48 proportions. We find notable heterogeneity in overall IFR estimates as suggested by individual 49 serological studies and observe that for most European countries the reported number of deaths 50 amongst ≥65s are significantly greater than expected, consistent with high infection attack rates 51 experienced by nursing home populations in Europe. Age-specific COVID-19 death data in 52 younger individuals can provide a robust indicator of population immunity.
    4. 10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851
    5. Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries
    1. Iversen, K., Bundgaard, H., Hasselbalch, R. B., Kristensen, J. H., Nielsen, P. B., Pries-Heje, M., Knudsen, A. D., Christensen, C. E., Fogh, K., Norsk, J. B., Andersen, O., Fischer, T. K., Jensen, C. A. J., Larsen, M., Torp-Pedersen, C., Rungby, J., Ditlev, S. B., Hageman, I., Møgelvang, R., … Ullum, H. (2020). Risk of COVID-19 in health-care workers in Denmark: An observational cohort study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30589-2

    1. Larremore, D. B., Wilder, B., Lester, E., Shehata, S., Burke, J. M., Hay, J. A., Tambe, M., Mina, M. J., & Parker, R. (2020). Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 surveillance. MedRxiv, 2020.06.22.20136309. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309

    1. Franceschini, C., Musetti, A., Zenesini, C., Palagini, L., Pelosi, A., Quattropani, M. C., Lenzo, V., Freda, M. F., Lemmo, D., Vegni, E., Borghi, L., Saita, E., Cattivelli, R., De Gennaro, L., Plazzi, G., Riemann, D., & Castelnuovo, G. (2020). Poor quality of sleep and its consequences on mental health during COVID-19 lockdown in Italy [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ah6j3

    1. Williamson, E. J., Walker, A. J., Bhaskaran, K., Bacon, S., Bates, C., Morton, C. E., Curtis, H. J., Mehrkar, A., Evans, D., Inglesby, P., Cockburn, J., McDonald, H. I., MacKenna, B., Tomlinson, L., Douglas, I. J., Rentsch, C. T., Mathur, R., Wong, A. Y. S., Grieve, R., … Goldacre, B. (2020). OpenSAFELY: Factors associated with COVID-19 death in 17 million patients. Nature, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2521-4

    1. O’Connor, D. B., Aggleton, J. P., Chakrabarti, B., Cooper, C. L., Creswell, C., Dunsmuir, S., Fiske, S. T., Gathercole, S., Gough, B., Ireland, J. L., Jones, M. V., Jowett, A., Kagan, C., Karanika‐Murray, M., Kaye, L. K., Kumari, V., Lewandowsky, S., Lightman, S., Malpass, D., … Armitage, C. J. (2020). Research priorities for the COVID‐19 pandemic and beyond: A call to action for psychological science. British Journal of Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjop.12468

    1. López, J. A. M., Arregui-Garcĺa, B., Bentkowski, P., Bioglio, L., Pinotti, F., Boëlle, P.-Y., Barrat, A., Colizza, V., & Poletto, C. (2020). Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection. MedRxiv, 2020.07.22.20158352. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20158352

    1. Peccia, J., Zulli, A., Brackney, D. E., Grubaugh, N. D., Kaplan, E. H., Casanovas-Massana, A., Ko, A. I., Malik, A. A., Wang, D., Wang, M., Weinberger, D. M., & Omer, S. B. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreak dynamics. MedRxiv, 2020.05.19.20105999. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999

    1. Mehra, M. R., Desai, S. S., Ruschitzka, F., & Patel, A. N. (2020). Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: A multinational registry analysis. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6