- Aug 2022
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www.liberation.fr www.liberation.fr
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Le cap fixé par le gouvernement de réduction de 10 % des consommations d’énergie d’ici deux ans vous semble-t-il suffisant ?Cet objectif est possible et même souhaitable mais pas assez ambitieux
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- Jul 2022
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report.ipcc.ch report.ipcc.ch
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Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation
Public Annotation of IPCC Report AR6 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change WGIII Chapter 5: Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation
NOTE: Permission given by one of the lead authors, Felix Creutzig to annotate with caveat that there may be minor changes in the final version.
This annotation explores the potential of mass mobilization of citizens and the commons to effect dramatic demand side reductions. It leverages the potential agency of the public to play a critical role in rapid decarbonization.
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- Jun 2022
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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it's really worth reading some of the things 00:18:00 that they're saying on climate change now and so what about 2 degrees C that's the 46th pathway that's the thousand Gigaton pathway the two degrees so you 00:18:13 look at the gap but between those two just an enormous that's where where no English edding we're all part of this and that's where we know we have to go from the science and that's where we keep telling other parts of the world begun to try to achieve the problem with 00:18:26 that and there's an engineer this is quite depressing in some respects is that this part at the beginning where we are now is too early for low-carbon supply you cannot build your way out of this with bits of engineering kit and 00:18:39 that is quite depressing because that leaves us with the social implications of what you have to do otherwise but I just want to test that assumption just think about this there's been a lot of discussion I don't know about within Iceland but in the UK quite a lot me 00:18:51 environmentalist have swapped over saying they think nuclear power is the answer or these one of the major answers to this and I'm I remain agnostic about nuclear power yeah it's very low carbon five to 15 grams of carbon dioxide per 00:19:03 kilowatt hour so it's it's similar to renewables and five to ten times lower than carbon capture and storage so nuclear power is very low carbon it has lots of other issues but it's a very low carbon but let's put a bit of 00:19:15 perspective on this we totally we consume in total about a hundred thousand ten watts hours of energy around the globe so just a very large amount of energy lots of energy for those of you I'm not familiar with these units global electricity consumption is 00:19:30 about 20,000 tarantella patelliday hours so 20% of lots of energy so that's our electricity nuclear provides about 11 a half percent of the electricity around the globe of what we consume of our 00:19:42 final energy consumption so that means nuclear provides about two-and-a-half percent of the global energy demand about two and a half percent that's from 435 nuclear power stations provide two 00:19:56 and a half percent of the world's energy demand if you wanted to provide 25% of the world's energy demand you'd probably need something in the region of three or four thousand new nuclear power stations to be built in the next 30 00:20:08 years three or four thousand new nuclear power stations to make a decent dent in our energy consumption and that assumes our energy consumptions remain static and it's not it's going up we're building 70 so just to put some sense 00:20:21 honest you hear this with every technology whether it's wind wave tidal CCS all these big bits of it technology these are going to solve the problem you cannot build them fast enough to get away from the fact that we're going to 00:20:34 blow our carbon budget and that's a really uncomfortable message because no one wants to hear that because the repercussions of that are that we have to reduce our energy demand so we have to reduce demand now now it is really 00:20:48 important the supply side I'm not saying it's not important it is essential but if we do not do something about the men we will not be able to hold to to probably even three degrees C and that's a global analysis and the iron would be 00:21:00 well we have signed up repeatedly on the basis of equity and when we say that we normally mean the poorer parts of the world would be allowed to we'll be able to peak their emissions later than we will be able to in the West that seems a 00:21:13 quite a fair thing that probably but no one would really argue I think against the idea of poor parts the world having a bit more time and space before they move off fossil fuels because there that links to their welfare to their improvements that use of energy now 00:21:27 let's imagine that the poor parts the world the non-oecd countries and I usually use the language of non annex 1 countries for those people who are familiar with that sort of IPCC language let's imagine that those parts of the 00:21:39 world including Indian China could peak their emissions by 2025 that is hugely challenging I think is just about doable if we show some examples in the West but I think it's just about past possible as 00:21:51 the emissions are going up significantly they could peak by 2025 before coming down and if we then started to get a reduction by say 2028 2029 2030 of 6 to 8 percent per annum which again is a 00:22:02 massive reduction rate that is a big challenge for poor parts of the world so I'm not letting them get away with anything here that's saying if they did all of that you can work out what carbon budget they would use up over the century and then you know what total carbon budget is for two degree 00:22:16 centigrade and you can say what's left for us the wealthy parts of the world that seems quite a fair way of looking at this and if you do it like that what's that mean for us that means we'd have to have and I'm redoing this it now 00:22:28 and I think it's really well above 10% because this is based on a paper in 2011 which was using data from 2009 to 10 so I think this number is probably been nearly 13 to 15 percent mark now but about 10 percent per annum reduction 00:22:40 rate in emissions year on year starting preferably yesterday that's a 40 percent reduction in our total emissions by 2018 just think their own lives could we reduce our emissions by 40 percent by 00:22:52 2018 I'm sure we could I'm sure we'll choose not to but sure we could do that but at 70 percent reduction by 2020 for 20-25 and basically would have to be pretty much zero carbon emissions not just from electricity from everything by 00:23:06 2030 or 2035 that sort of timeframe that just this that's just the simple blunt maths that comes out of the carbon budgets and very demanding reduction rates from poorer parts of the world now 00:23:19 these are radical emission reduction rates that we cannot you say you cannot build your way out or you have to do it with with how we consume our energy in the short term now that looks too difficult well what about four degrees six that's what you hear all the time that's too difficult so what about four 00:23:31 degrees C because actually the two degrees C we're heading towards is probably nearer three now anyway so I'm betting on your probabilities so let's think about four degrees C well what it gives you as a larger carbon budget and we all like that because it means I can 00:23:43 attend more fancy international conferences and we can come on going on rock climbing colleges in my case you know we can all count on doing than living the lives that we like so we quite like a larger carbon budget low rates of mitigation but what are the 00:23:54 impacts this is not my area so I'm taking some work here from the Hadley Centre in the UK who did some some analysis with the phone and Commonwealth Office but you're all probably familiar with these sorts of things and there's a range of these impacts that are out there a four degree C global average 00:24:07 means you're going to much larger averages on land because mostly over most of the planet is covered in oceans and they take longer to warm up but think during the heat waves what that might play out to mean so during times 00:24:18 when we're already under stress in our societies think of the European heat wave I don't know whether it got to Iceland or not and in 2003 well it was it was quite warm in the West Europe too warm it's probably much nicer 00:24:31 in Iceland and there were twenty to thirty thousand people died across Europe during that period now add eight degrees on top of that heat wave and it could be a longer heat wave and you start to think that our infrastructure start to break down the 00:24:45 cables that were used to bring power to our homes to our fridges to our water pumps those cables are underground and they're cooled by soil moisture as the soil moisture evaporates during a prolonged heatwave those cables cannot 00:24:56 carry as much power to our fridges and our water pumps so our fridges and water pumps can no longer work some of them will be now starting to break down so the food and our fridges will be perishing at the same time that our neighbors food is perishing so you live 00:25:08 in London eight million people three days of food in the whole city and it's got a heat wave and the food is anybody perishing in the fridges so you think you know bring the food from the ports but the similar problems might be happening in Europe and anyway the tarmac for the roads that we have in the 00:25:19 UK can't deal with those temperatures so it's melting so you can't bring the food up from the ports and the train lines that we put in place aren't designed for those temperatures and they're buckling so you can't bring the trains up so you've got 8 million people in London 00:25:31 you know in an advanced nation that is start to struggle with those sorts of temperature changes so even in industrialized countries you can imagine is playing out quite negatively a whole sequence of events not looking particulate 'iv in China look at the 00:25:44 building's they're putting up there and some of this Shanghai and Beijing and so forth they've got no thermal mass these buildings are not going to be good with high temperatures and the absolutely big increases there and in some parts of the states could be as high as 10 or 12 00:25:56 degrees temperature rises these are all a product of a 4 degree C average temperature
We have to peak emissions in the next few years if we want to stay under 1.5 Deg C. This talk was given back in 2015 when IPCC was still setting its sights on 2 Deg C.
This is a key finding for why supply side development cannot scale to solve the problem in the short term. It's impossible to scale rapidly enough. Only drastic demand side reduction can peak emissions and drop drastically in the next few years.
And if we hit a 4 Deg C world, which is not out of the question as current Business As Usual estimates put us on track between 3 and 5 Deg C, Kevin Anderson cites some research about the way infrastructure systems in a city like London would break down
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assets.pubpub.org assets.pubpub.org
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Discussion of the paper:
Ghojogh B, Ghodsi A, Karray F, Crowley M. Theoretical Connection between Locally Linear Embedding, Factor Analysis, and Probabilistic PCA. Proceedings of the Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence [Internet]. 2022 May 27; Available from: https://caiac.pubpub.org/pub/7eqtuyyc
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- Apr 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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(((Howard Forman))). (2021, June 28). There are few more compelling graphics to demonstrate how effective vaccines are: 80+% reduction in hospital admissions for the group most vaccinated. <40% reduction in admissions for the group least likely to be vaccinated. [Tweet]. @thehowie. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1409492774009847810
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦. (2022, March 8). What could be causing it? Likely combo of: 1—Dominant BA.2 causing more infections (we await ONS!) 2—Reduction in masks, self-isolation & testing enabling more infections 3—Waning boosters in older people esp I worry that we will be stuck at high levels for long time. 2/2 https://t.co/xZ2SLFNVkS [Tweet]. @chrischirp. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1501250081693048838
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- Feb 2022
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Sandra Ciesek. (2021, December 8). Unsere ersten Daten zur Neutralisation von Omicron versus Delta sind fertig: 2x Biontech, 2x Moderna, 1xAZ/1x Biontech nach 6 Monaten 0% Neutralisation bei Omicron, auch 3x Biontech 3 Monate nach Booster nur 25% NT versus 95% bei Delta. Bis zu 37fache Reduktion Delta vs. Omicron https://t.co/w0gHww26sg [Tweet]. @CiesekSandra. https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/1468465347519041539
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2022, January 20). @timcolbourn @OmicronData I’m sorry but I genuinely do not see how this is a response to what I said about the presuppositions in the ‘delay framing’? This reply is about your views on disease burden, not -as mine is- how choice of terminology implicitly shapes the argument space [Tweet]. @i. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484191657318879234
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twitter.com twitter.com
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Catherine Finnecy. (2022, February 11). SPI-M-O currently estimates that a combination of behavioural change...and mitigations (e.g. Testing, self-isolation) are currently reducing transmission by 20–45% [Tweet]. @cfinnecy. https://twitter.com/cfinnecy/status/1492213392681181184
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- Jan 2022
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Weaver, M. (2022, January 4). Omicron infections may have plateaued in London, Neil Ferguson says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/omicron-infections-may-have-plateaued-in-london-neil-ferguson-says
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- Dec 2021
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Ortiz, J. R., & Neuzil, K. M. (2021). The value of vaccine programme impact monitoring during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02322-9
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- Nov 2021
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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i might add in october 2021 the climate change committee noted that the government's net zero strategy contained an 00:59:28 insufficient amount of demand management to deliver the uk uk's decarbonisation commitments my question to the panel is was there a big demand management hole in cop26 and if so what can be done to engage 00:59:41 politicians and policymakers more widely in this important piece of the decarbonization jigsaw
Demand side reduction is a challenging issue.
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www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
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Landhuis, E. (2021, November 12). Investigating Antidepressants’ Surprising Effect on COVID Deaths. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/investigating-antidepressants-surprising-effect-on-covid-deaths/
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Sample, I. (2021, November 2). JCVI failed to back youth Covid jabs despite favourable modelling. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/02/jcvi-failed-back-youth-covid-jabs-despite-favourable-models
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- Oct 2021
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Page, M. L. (n.d.). How much less likely are you to spread covid-19 if you’re vaccinated? New Scientist. Retrieved 31 October 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/
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Torjesen, I. (2021). Covid-19: One in four vaccinated people living in households with a covid-19 case become infected, study finds. BMJ, 375, n2638. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2638
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- Sep 2021
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America Needs an Operation Warp Speed for Rapid COVID Testing. (n.d.). Time. Retrieved 13 September 2021, from https://time.com/6096528/operation-warp-speed-covid-19-testing/
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Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA. (2021, September 11). 4/ A vaccine doesn’t have to induce sterilizing immunity to be highly effective. Https://t.co/wZ9YHRYJZy [Tweet]. @celinegounder. https://twitter.com/celinegounder/status/1436710543646150670
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- Jul 2021
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bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com
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Escandón, K., Rasmussen, A. L., Bogoch, I. I., Murray, E. J., Escandón, K., Popescu, S. V., & Kindrachuk, J. (2021). COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection. BMC Infectious Diseases, 21(1), 710. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06357-4
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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Regev-Yochay, G., Amit, S., Bergwerk, M., Lipsitch, M., Leshem, E., Kahn, R., Lustig, Y., Cohen, C., Doolman, R., Ziv, A., Novikov, I., Rubin, C., Gimpelevich, I., Huppert, A., Rahav, G., Afek, A., & Kreiss, Y. (2021). Decreased infectivity following BNT162b2 vaccination: A prospective cohort study in Israel. The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 7, 100150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100150
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- Jun 2021
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twitter.com twitter.com
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ReconfigBehSci. (2021, June 7). RT @JamesWard73: Thanks to the person who pointed me towards this report: Https://t.co/XZZ7JsdA8t (you know who you are!)—Lots of interes… [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1402050855449202696
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- May 2021
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Andre, F., Booy, R., Bock, H., Clemens, J., Datta, S., John, T., Lee, B., Lolekha, S., Peltola, H., Ruff, T., Santosham, M., & Schmitt, H. (2008). Vaccination greatly reduces disease, disability, death and inequity worldwide. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 86(2), 140–146. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.07.040089
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Riumallo-Herl, C., Chang, A. Y., Clark, S., Constenla, D., Clark, A., Brenzel, L., & Verguet, S. (2018). Poverty reduction and equity benefits of introducing or scaling up measles, rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: A modelling study. BMJ Global Health, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000613
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Howard, J., Huang, A., Li, Z., Tufekci, Z., Zdimal, V., Westhuizen, H.-M. van der, Delft, A. von, Price, A., Fridman, L., Tang, L.-H., Tang, V., Watson, G. L., Bax, C. E., Shaikh, R., Questier, F., Hernandez, D., Chu, L. F., Ramirez, C. M., & Rimoin, A. W. (2021). An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(4). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014564118
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Early government intervention is key to reducing the spread of COVID-19. (2020, May 6). Science & Research News | Frontiers. https://blog.frontiersin.org/2020/05/06/early-government-intervention-is-key-to-reducing-the-spread-of-covid-19/
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- Apr 2021
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www.derstandard.at www.derstandard.at
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Europäischer Rat und Europaparlament haben sich kurz vor dem Earth-Day auf eine Reduzierung der Treibhausgas-Emissionen 2030 auf mindestens 55% im Verhältnis zu 1990 geinigt. Einbezug von CO2-Senken wie Wäldern schwächt das Ergebnis zusätzlich ab. EU-Staaten und Europaparlament einigen sich auf Klimaziel - EU - derStandard.at › International, EU Rat & Kommission sägen Klimagesetz ab - Michael Bloss
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- Mar 2021
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www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
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Klein, A. (n.d.). Big drop in Earth’s surface vibrations seen during covid-19 lockdowns. New Scientist. Retrieved July 24, 2020, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2249574-big-drop-in-earths-surface-vibrations-seen-during-covid-19-lockdowns/
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A Marm Kilpatrick. (2021, February 9). Vaccine efficacy in blocking infection & transmission (I think) We can now estimate the (minimum) reduction in transmission from the Moderna vaccine. Thread tl;dr Moderna vaccine blocks >90% (87-93%) of infections & 91% (89-94%) of transmission. *Critiques welcome! Https://t.co/GjQIo3v4oe [Tweet]. @DiseaseEcology. https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1359213735424872450
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OC. (2021, January 22). Leadership. One of the most important and non-trivial steps taken by @JoeBiden is the decision to prioritize the protection of those at the highest risk. In Israel, our analysis shows that municipalities at low SES have the lowest rates of vaccination of at-risk populations.1/4 https://t.co/1aiqymQlMQ [Tweet]. @MDCaspi. https://twitter.com/MDCaspi/status/1352590064900038662
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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Olliaro, P. (2021). What does 95% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy really mean? The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00075-X
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Savaris, R. F., G. Pumi, J. Dalzochio, and R. Kunst. ‘Stay-at-Home Policy Is a Case of Exception Fallacy: An Internet-Based Ecological Study’. Scientific Reports 11, no. 1 (5 March 2021): 5313. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1.
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To end covid-19, we must end discrimination and inequality. (2021, March 1). The BMJ. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/03/01/to-end-covid-19-we-must-end-discrimination-and-inequality/
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Wilson, C. (2021). Coronavirus vaccines may reduce or eliminate symptoms of long covid. New Scientist. Retrieved March 8, 2021, from https://www.newscientist.com/article/2270186-coronavirus-vaccines-may-reduce-or-eliminate-symptoms-of-long-covid/
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Eran Segal. (2021, January 22). Israel: 2.4M after 1st dose (27% pop) 78% of all 60+ years old Despite that, we have a problem: Cities of lower socio-economic status and more cases get vaccinated less X: Socioeconomic rank Y: % 60+ years old vaccinated Color: Vaccination need ratio @MDCaspi by covid-19 cases https://t.co/t5vC8hjXA4 [Tweet]. @segal_eran. https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352579515592138753
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- Feb 2021
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Mansfield, K. E., Mathur, R., Tazare, J., Henderson, A. D., Mulick, A., Carreira, H., Matthews, A. A., Bidulka, P., Gayle, A., Forbes, H., Cook, S., Wong, A. Y., Strongman, H., Wing, K., Warren-Gash, C., Cadogan, S. L., Smeeth, L., Hayes, J. F., Quint, J. K., … Langan, S. M. (2020). COVID-19 collateral: Indirect acute effects of the pandemic on physical and mental health in the UK. MedRxiv, 2020.10.29.20222174. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.29.20222174
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Li, R. (2021). Mobility restrictions are more than transient reduction of travel activities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(1). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023895118
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