81 Matching Annotations
  1. Feb 2024
    1. for - climate crisis - interview - Neil degrasse Tyson - Gavin Schmidt - 2023 record heat - NASA explanation

      podcast details - title: How 2023 broke our climate models - host: Neil degrasse Tyson & Paul Mercurio - guest: NASA director, Gavin Schmidt - date: Jan 2024

      summary - Neil degrasse and his cohost Paul Mercurio interview NASA director Gavin Schmidt to discuss the record-breaking global heating in 2023 and 2024. - Neil and Paul cover a lot in this short interview including: - NASA models can't explain the large jump in temperature in 2023 / 2024. Yes, they predicted incremental increases, but not such large jumps. Gavin finds this worrying. - PACE satellite launches this month, to gather important data on the state of aerosols around the planet. This infomration can help characterize more precisely the role aerosols are playing in global heating. - geoengineering with aerosols is not considered a good idea by Gavin, as it essentially means once started, and if it works to cool the planet, we would be dependent on them for centuries. - Gavin stresses the need for a cohesive collective solution, but that it's beyond him how we achieve that given all the denailsim and misinformation that influeces policy out there.

  2. Jan 2024
  3. Dec 2023
    1. next year we we'll know whether your your your numbers are right in your pipeline paper around May of next year 01:46:30 and then it's going to be a very warm year it's going to be a lot of Destruction then we need we need to see how far the temperature Falls with the elino with the linia that follows but I 01:46:42 I expect it's not going to fall as much as you would otherwise have expected because of the large planetary energy balance there's more energy coming in than going out so it's hard for the 01:46:55 linia to cool it off as much as it used to
      • for:May 2024 - James Hansen prediction, extreme weather event - May 2024 - Hansen 2023 paper, prediction - extreme weather 2024
    1. we're getting a taste of that in the pandemic yes you adopt a wartime or emergency mindset that helps to liberate a kind of level 00:15:22 of collective purpose it makes new things possible
      • for: polycrisis wartime mobilization, climate crisis wartime mobilization, 2024 extreme weather - wartime mobilization opportunity

      • key insight

      • adjacency between
        • real COVID mobilization
        • imagined future climate crisis wartime mobilization
      • adjacency statement

        • The rapid response to the COVID pandemic was a real life case of a wartime scale mobilization in a very short time. This shows that it is possible. We need to see if we can strive for this for climate change. If 2024 becomes the year of extreme weather due to El Nino, then we could use it as an opportunity for a wartime mobilization

        • one good thing about the COVID pandemic is that it did show that a rapid wartime mobilization is possible, because it did kind of happened during COVID

  4. Nov 2023
  5. Oct 2023
    1. Die Extremwetter-Ereignisse dieses Jahres entsprechen den Vorhersagen der Klimawissenschaft. Der Guardian hat dazu zahlreichende Forschende befragt und viele Statements in einem multimedialen Artikel zusammengestellt. Alle Befragten stimmen darin überein, dass die Verbrennung fossiler Brennstoffe sofort beendet werden muss, um eine weitere Verschlimmerung zu stoppen. Festgestellt wird auch, dass die Verwundbarkeit vieler Communities bisher unterschätzt worden ist. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/crazy-off-the-charts-records-has-humanity-finally-broken-the-climate

  6. Sep 2023
      • for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
      • title: The Great Disruption has Begun
      • author: Paul Gilding
      • date: Sept 3, 2023
      • source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun
      • summary

        • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
        • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
        • Coins a good meme
          • Everything, everywhere, all at once
        • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
        • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride
      • comment

        • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.
  7. Aug 2023
      • for: extreme weather, realtime extreme weather analysis, World weather attribution
      • description
        • the World Weather Attribution organization is a group of research institutes that provides robust scientific answers to the question:
          • is climate change to blame?
        • when an extreme weather event has occurred
        • This is usually available days to weeks after the event and informs discussions about climate change while the impacts of the events are still fresh in the minds of the public and policymakers.
  8. Jul 2023
    1. mbine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displa

      Wenn sich die globale Erhitzung fortsetzt, wird die Anzahl kombinierter Dürren und Überflutungen zunehmen. Dabei gehört Mitteleuropa zu den besonders betroffenen Regionen. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2219825120 (via CarbonBrief)

  9. Jun 2023
  10. May 2023
  11. Apr 2023
  12. Feb 2023
  13. Nov 2022
  14. Jul 2022
    1. “We shall have a change in the weather before long.”

      Weather has been used before to foreshadow major events. So likely something unexpected or bad will happen with this change in weather.

  15. May 2022
    1. ```bash $ curl wttr.in Weather for City: Paris, France

       \   /     Clear
        .-.      10 – 11 °C
      

      ― ( ) ― ↑ 11 km/h<br /> `-’ 10 km<br /> / \ 0.0 mm<br /> ```

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  16. Feb 2022
  17. Sep 2021
  18. Aug 2021
    1. ugust 14, 2021, rain was observed at the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet for several hours, and air temperatures remained above freezing for about nine hours. This was the third time in less than a decade, and the latest date in the year on record, that the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station had above-freezing temperatures and wet snow. There is no previous report of rainfall at this location (72.58°N 38.46°W), which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation. Earlier melt events in the instrumental record occurred in 1995, 2012, and 2019; prior to those events, melting is inferred from ice cores to have been absent since an event in the late 1800s
  19. Jul 2021
  20. Jun 2021
  21. May 2021
  22. Apr 2021
    1. "Weltweit steigt mit dem Klimawandel das Risiko von extremen Regenfällen und Überschwemmungen", fasst Will Steffen von der australischen Nationaluniversität zusammen. Der Professor ist einer der führenden Klimatologen Australiens. "Die globale Durchschnittstemperatur ist bereits um etwa 1,1 Grad Celsius gestiegen. Für jeden Temperaturanstieg von einem Grad kann die Atmosphäre etwa sieben Prozent mehr Wasser aufnehmen", so Steffen
  23. Mar 2021
  24. Dec 2020
    1. My weather camera wbinfo = {} wbinfo.url = "https://www.altocumulus.org/~hallgren/webcam2/?webcamsection="; wbinfo.timestamp = "20201217191630"; wbinfo.request_ts = ""; wbinfo.prefix = "https://via.hypothes.is/"; wbinfo.mod = ""; wbinfo.top_url = "https://via.hypothes.is/https://www.altocumulus.org/~hallgren/webcam2/?webcamsection="; wbinfo.is_framed = false; wbinfo.is_live = true; wbinfo.coll = ""; wbinfo.proxy_magic = ""; wbinfo.static_prefix = "https://via.hypothes.is/static/__pywb"; wbinfo.wombat_ts = "20201217191630"; wbinfo.wombat_scheme = "https"; wbinfo.wombat_host = "www.altocumulus.org"; wbinfo.wombat_sec = "1608232590"; wbinfo.wombat_opts = {"no_rewrite_prefixes": ["http://localhost:5000/", "http://localhost:3001/", "https://localhost:5000/", "https://localhost:3001/", "https://hypothes.is/", "https://qa.hypothes.is/", "https://cdn.hypothes.is/", "/assets/"], "http_cache": "pass"}; if (window && window._WBWombat && !window._wb_js_inited && !window._wb_wombat) { window._wb_wombat = new _WBWombat(wbinfo); } /** * Return `true` if this frame has no ancestors or its nearest ancestor was * not served through Via. * * The implementation relies on all documents proxied through Via sharing the * same origin. */ function isTopViaFrame() { if (window === window.top) { // Trivial case - This is the top-most frame in the tab so it must be the // top Via frame. return true; } try { // Get a reference to the parent frame. Via's "wombat.js" frontend code // monkey-patches `window.parent` in certain cases, in which case // `window.__WB_orig_parent` is the _real_ parent frame. var parent = window.__WB_orig_parent || window.parent; // Try to access the parent frame's location. This will trigger an // exception if the frame comes from a different, non-Via origin. // // This test assumes that all documents proxied through Via are served from // the same origin. If a future change to Via means that is no longer the // case, this function will need to be implemented differently. parent.location.href; // If the access succeeded, the parent frame was proxied through Via and so // this is not the top Via frame. return false; } catch (err) { // If the access failed, the parent frame was not proxied through Via and // so this is the top Via frame. return true; } } function stripFragment(url) { return url.replace(/#.*$/, ''); } /** * Test if a link will navigate to a new page as opposed to scrolling to a * different location within the current page. * * @param {HTMLAnchorElement} linkEl */ function isExternalLink(linkEl) { // Create a link that is definitely internal and compare its absolute URL // to the target link. // // We do this rather than the more obvious comparison of `linkEl.href` to `location.href` // because Via monkey-patches `HTMLAnchorElement.prototype.href` so that it // returns the original (non-proxied) URL and therefore cannot be // compared directly with the real (proxied) URL that `location.href` returns. const internalLink = document.createElement('a'); // nb. `href` always returns an absolute URL when read. internalLink.href = '#'; return stripFragment(internalLink.href) !== stripFragment(linkEl.href); } /** * Setup handling of links to other documents. * * @param {"same-tab"|"new-tab"} mode */ function setupExternalLinkHandler(mode) { if (mode === "new-tab") { document.addEventListener("click", function (event) { if (!event.target.closest) { // Do nothing in browsers that don't support `element.closest` (IE 11). return; } var linkEl = event.target.closest("a"); if (linkEl) { if (isExternalLink(linkEl)) { // Make link open in a new tab. linkEl.target = "_blank"; } } }); } } (function () { if (!isTopViaFrame()) { // Do not inject Hypothesis into iframes in documents proxied through Via. // As well as slowing down the loading of the proxied page even more, this // causes problems with the way that the client "discovers" annotate-able iframes. // // See https://github.com/hypothesis/client/issues/568, // https://github.com/hypothesis/via/issues/119 and // https://github.com/hypothesis/lms/issues/701. return; } // Inject the Hypothesis client. var embed_script = document.createElement("script"); embed_script.src = "https://cdn.hypothes.is/hypothesis"; document.head.appendChild(embed_script); setupExternalLinkHandler("same-tab"); window.hypothesisConfig = function() { return {"showHighlights": true, "appType": "via", "openSidebar": false}; }})(); if (_wb_js) { _wb_js.load(); } My weather camera

      Väderkamera i Göteborg

    2. My weather camera wbinfo = {} wbinfo.url = "https://www.altocumulus.org/~hallgren/webcam2/?webcamsection="; wbinfo.timestamp = "20201217191234"; wbinfo.request_ts = ""; wbinfo.prefix = "https://via.hypothes.is/"; wbinfo.mod = ""; wbinfo.top_url = "https://via.hypothes.is/https://www.altocumulus.org/~hallgren/webcam2/?webcamsection="; wbinfo.is_framed = false; wbinfo.is_live = true; wbinfo.coll = ""; wbinfo.proxy_magic = ""; wbinfo.static_prefix = "https://via.hypothes.is/static/__pywb"; wbinfo.wombat_ts = "20201217191234"; wbinfo.wombat_scheme = "https"; wbinfo.wombat_host = "www.altocumulus.org"; wbinfo.wombat_sec = "1608232354"; wbinfo.wombat_opts = {"no_rewrite_prefixes": ["http://localhost:5000/", "http://localhost:3001/", "https://localhost:5000/", "https://localhost:3001/", "https://hypothes.is/", "https://qa.hypothes.is/", "https://cdn.hypothes.is/", "/assets/"], "http_cache": "pass"}; if (window && window._WBWombat && !window._wb_js_inited && !window._wb_wombat) { window._wb_wombat = new _WBWombat(wbinfo); } /** * Return `true` if this frame has no ancestors or its nearest ancestor was * not served through Via. * * The implementation relies on all documents proxied through Via sharing the * same origin. */ function isTopViaFrame() { if (window === window.top) { // Trivial case - This is the top-most frame in the tab so it must be the // top Via frame. return true; } try { // Get a reference to the parent frame. Via's "wombat.js" frontend code // monkey-patches `window.parent` in certain cases, in which case // `window.__WB_orig_parent` is the _real_ parent frame. var parent = window.__WB_orig_parent || window.parent; // Try to access the parent frame's location. This will trigger an // exception if the frame comes from a different, non-Via origin. // // This test assumes that all documents proxied through Via are served from // the same origin. If a future change to Via means that is no longer the // case, this function will need to be implemented differently. parent.location.href; // If the access succeeded, the parent frame was proxied through Via and so // this is not the top Via frame. return false; } catch (err) { // If the access failed, the parent frame was not proxied through Via and // so this is the top Via frame. return true; } } function stripFragment(url) { return url.replace(/#.*$/, ''); } /** * Test if a link will navigate to a new page as opposed to scrolling to a * different location within the current page. * * @param {HTMLAnchorElement} linkEl */ function isExternalLink(linkEl) { // Create a link that is definitely internal and compare its absolute URL // to the target link. // // We do this rather than the more obvious comparison of `linkEl.href` to `location.href` // because Via monkey-patches `HTMLAnchorElement.prototype.href` so that it // returns the original (non-proxied) URL and therefore cannot be // compared directly with the real (proxied) URL that `location.href` returns. const internalLink = document.createElement('a'); // nb. `href` always returns an absolute URL when read. internalLink.href = '#'; return stripFragment(internalLink.href) !== stripFragment(linkEl.href); } /** * Setup handling of links to other documents. * * @param {"same-tab"|"new-tab"} mode */ function setupExternalLinkHandler(mode) { if (mode === "new-tab") { document.addEventListener("click", function (event) { if (!event.target.closest) { // Do nothing in browsers that don't support `element.closest` (IE 11). return; } var linkEl = event.target.closest("a"); if (linkEl) { if (isExternalLink(linkEl)) { // Make link open in a new tab. linkEl.target = "_blank"; } } }); } } (function () { if (!isTopViaFrame()) { // Do not inject Hypothesis into iframes in documents proxied through Via. // As well as slowing down the loading of the proxied page even more, this // causes problems with the way that the client "discovers" annotate-able iframes. // // See https://github.com/hypothesis/client/issues/568, // https://github.com/hypothesis/via/issues/119 and // https://github.com/hypothesis/lms/issues/701. return; } // Inject the Hypothesis client. var embed_script = document.createElement("script"); embed_script.src = "https://cdn.hypothes.is/hypothesis"; document.head.appendChild(embed_script); setupExternalLinkHandler("same-tab"); window.hypothesisConfig = function() { return {"showHighlights": true, "appType": "via", "openSidebar": false}; }})(); if (_wb_js) { _wb_js.load(); } My weather camera

      Väderkamera i Krokslätt, Mölndal, Göteborg Weather camera in Krokslätt, Mölndal, Gothenburg

    3. My weather camera

      väderkamera i Göteborg

    4. Krokslätt Thu Dec 17 19:17:59 2020

      weather in Krokslätt

  25. Aug 2020
  26. Jul 2020
  27. Jun 2020
  28. May 2020
  29. Apr 2020
  30. Mar 2019
  31. Feb 2018
  32. May 2017
    1. But when it comes to weather prediction, America lags behind a European prediction model that does a better job at telling us how warm or cold it will be three to 10 days out.

      I wasn't aware of this. Curious!

    1. Mackenzie Highway
      The Mackenzie Highway is the longest in the Northwest Territories. It begins at the Northwest Territory and Alberta border and ends at Wrigley, Northwest Territory. It is approximately 690 kilometers or 429 miles long. About 280 kilometers are paved while the rest of the highway is covered with gravel (Government of Northwest Territories, n.d.). The construction of this highway was ongoing between the 1940s and 1970s. In 1945, the Canadian federal government and the government of Alberta signed an agreement to build an all-weather road that would replace the existing Caterpillar tractor trails from Grimshaw to the Great Slave Lake of Hay River (Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center, n.d.). As time passed and focus shifted to fossil fuel collection, the motivation behind further construction of the Mackenzie Highway was in “anticipation of a major oil pipeline development along the Mackenzie River valley” (Pomeroy, 1985). The intended use of the highway was to enable the pipeline developers to haul construction materials throughout the area. During its construction, many chiefs of the Indian Brotherhood opposed the completion of the Mackenzie Highway. There was additional opposition voiced from the people of Wrigley who also did not support further construction of the Mackenzie Highway (Cox, 1975). 
      

      References

      Cox, B. (1975). Changing Perceptions of Industrial Development in the North. Human Organization, 27-33.

      Government of Northwest Territories. (n.d.). Transportation Highway 1. Retrieved from Government of Northwest Territories: http://www.dot.gov.nt.ca/Highways/Highway_System/NWTHwy1

      Pomeroy, J. (1985). An Identification of Environmental Disturbances from Road Developments in Subarctic Muskeg. Arctic, 104-111.

      Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center. (n.d.). Historical Timeline of the Northwest Territories. Retrieved from Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center: http://www.nwttimeline.ca/1925/1948_MackenzieHighway.htm

  33. Mar 2017
    1. Shell

      The decision to veto the proposed pipeline in accordance with Mr. Berger’s recommendation substantially slowed, but did not stop the search for oil in the Arctic. Over the next 40 years, oil companies such as Shell, Exxon, and Chevron would continue their search in a region expected to contain 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas.1 But in 2015, Shell, the last remaining company in the American Arctic, announced it would halt its exploratory drilling. This would mark the end of their $7 billion venture into Alaska’s Chuckchi Sea. The well, the Burger J, stretched to a depth of 6,800 feet and showed indications of oil and gas, but amid relatively low oil prices, less than $50 a barrel, and the expense necessary to drill in this section of the ocean they have decided to cease operations. The company originally planned on drill two wells to greater than 8,000 feet, but in the wake of Shell grounding its Kulluck drilling rig, this number was halved by President Obama’s administration.2 This grounding was found to be, in part, the result of Shell’s ill-fated attempt to avoid paying millions of dollars in tax liability. Fortune’s Jon Birger noted in his visit to the rig after it was grounded that it was well prepared to prevent the incident that destroyed BP’s Deepwater Horizon, but, startlingly, was less equipped to deal with the unique weather conditions posed by drilling in the Arctic.3 The Berger report may not have halted Shell’s Artic exploration but a combination of regulatory restrictions and low oil prices seem to have done just that.

      1. Lavelle, Marianne. "Coast Guard blames Shell risk-taking in Kulluk rig accident." National Geographic. April 4, 2014. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/04/140404-coast-guard-blames-shell-in-kulluk-rig-accident/.
      2. Koch, Wendy. "3 reasons why Shell halted drilling in the Arctic." National Geographic. September 28, 2015. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/09/150928-3-reasons-shell-halted-drilling-in-the-arctic/.
      3. Birger, Jon. "What I learned aboard Shell's grounded Alaskan oil rig." Fortune. January 3, 2013. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://fortune.com/2013/01/03/what-i-learned-aboard-shells-grounded-alaskan-oil-rig/.
  34. Nov 2016
  35. Jul 2016
    1. In April 1950, Charney’s group made a series of successful 24-hour forecasts over North America, and by the mid-1950s, numerical forecasts were being made on a regular basis.

      Roughly 50 years from initial efforts to first successful forecasts.

    2. Charney determined that the impracticality of Richardson’s methods could be overcome by using the new computers and a revised set of equations, filtering out sound and gravity waves in order to simplify the calculations and focus on the phenomena of most importance to predicting the evolution of continent-scale weather systems.

      The complexity of the forecasting problem was initially overcome in the 1940's both by an improved rate of calculation (using computers) and by simplifying the models to focus on the most important factors.

    3. Courageously, Richardson reported his results in his book Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, published in 1922.

      Despite failing to predict the weather accurately, Richardson posted his results publicly. This is an important step in allowing the improvement of forecasting because it makes it possible to learn what works and what doesn't more quickly. See also Brian McGill's 6th P of Good Prediction

    4. Despite the advances made by Richardson, it took him, working alone, several months to produce a wildly inaccurate six-hour forecast for an area near Munich, Germany. In fact, some of the changes predicted in Richardson’s forecast could never occur under any known terrestrial conditions.

      Nice concise description of the poor performance and impracticality of early weather forecasting.

  36. Mar 2016