In den Ländern am Horn von Afrika haben Überflutung zum Tod vieler Menschen geführt. Sie sind vermutlich das Ergebnis von natürlichen periodischen Ereignissen wie El Niño, die von der globalen Erhitzung verstärkt werden. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000194627/toedliche-ueberschwemmungen-am-horn-von-afrika

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/09/climate-crisis-cost-extreme-weather-damage-study

study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41888-1

Die Extremwetter-Ereignisse dieses Jahres entsprechen den Vorhersagen der Klimawissenschaft. Der Guardian hat dazu zahlreichende Forschende befragt und viele Statements in einem multimedialen Artikel zusammengestellt. Alle Befragten stimmen darin überein, dass die Verbrennung fossiler Brennstoffe sofort beendet werden muss, um eine weitere Verschlimmerung zu stoppen. Festgestellt wird auch, dass die Verwundbarkeit vieler Communities bisher unterschätzt worden ist. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/crazy-off-the-charts-records-has-humanity-finally-broken-the-climate

Die Europäische Union befindet sich bei der Umsetzung ihrer Klimaziele in einem entscheidenden Moment. In einem Bericht des European Council on Foreign Relations werden die politischen HIndernisse für die Dekaarbonisierung analysiert, Dabei wird detailliert auf die geopolitische Situation und auf die Bedingungen in den EU-Staaten eingegangen..

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/28/eu-faces-make-or-break-moment-for-green-transition-report-says

Report: https://ecfr.eu/publication/ends-of-the-earth-how-eu-climate-action-can-weather-the-coming-election-storm/

• for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
• title: The Great Disruption has Begun
• author: Paul Gilding
• date: Sept 3, 2023
• source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun

• summary

  • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
  • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
  • Coins a good meme
    • Everything, everywhere, all at once
  • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
  • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride

• comment

  • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.

Waldbrände haben 2023 in Kanada bisher mit 1,4 Milliarden Hektar eine Fläche von der Größe Griechenlands zerstört. Ein Attributionsstudie für die Brände in Québec ergibt, dass sie durch die globale Erhitzung mindestens doppelt so wahrscheinlich wurden wir ohne sie, und dass die Temperaturen, die die Brände begünstigten, 20% höher waren als vor der Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/22/climate-change-canada-wildfires-twice-as-likely

Sommerliche HItzewellen wie in diesem Jahr in Europa, den USA und China sind durch die globale Erhitzung in ihrem Ausmaß wesentlich wahrscheinlicher geworden. Ohne globale Erhitzung wären eine Welle in China so wie in diesem Jahr nur alle 250 Jahre zu erwarten, in Südeuropa und in Mexiko und den südlichen USA wäre sie „virtuell unmöglich“. Die World Weather Attribution publizierte diese Ergebnisse in einer neuen Attributions-Studie. https://www.repubblica.it/economia/rapporti/energitalia/storie/2023/07/28/news/wwa_le_ondate_di_calore_estremo_negli_usa_e_in_europa_sarebbero_virtualmente_impossibili_senza_il_cambiamento_climatico-409305623/

Der frühere Taifun Doksuri hat in Peking die schlimmsten Regenfälle und Überschwemmungen seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen verursacht. Auch andere Teile Chinas sind von Extremwetter betroffen. So wurden in der Nachbarprovinz Hebei 800 000 Menschen wegen der Überschwemmungen evakuiert..https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/02/beijing-reports-heaviest-rain-140-years-china-g20-climate-talks

• for: extreme weather, realtime extreme weather analysis, World weather attribution
• description
  • the World Weather Attribution organization is a group of research institutes that provides robust scientific answers to the question:
    • is climate change to blame?
  • when an extreme weather event has occurred
  • This is usually available days to weeks after the event and informs discussions about climate change while the impacts of the events are still fresh in the minds of the public and policymakers.

Die Hitze im Süden und Unwetter im Norden Italiens haben mehrere Tote gefordert. Viele Menschen mussten vor den Waldbränden in Sizilien fliehen. Am Montag wurden in Palermo 47°C gemessen, an anderen Orten in Süditalien waren sie noch höher. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/25/italy-wildfires-palermo-temperatures-sicily-airport-heatwave

• Title
  • ‘Out of time’: Temperature records topple around the world
• Source
  • https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/30/out-of-time-temperature-records-topple-around-the-world

Viele Regionen der USA sind von Extremwetterer betroffen. Ca. ein Drittel der Bevölkerung lebt in Regionen, für gesunfheitsgefährliche Hitzewellen vorausgesagt würden, wobei die hohen Temperaturen z.T. schon seit Wochen anhalten. In einer Reihe von Bundesstaaten drohen Stürme und Überschwemmungen. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/13/more-extreme-weather-across-us

Sibirien macht gerade die schlimmste Hitzewelle der aufgezeichneten Geschichte durch. Im Juni wurden Temperaturen von über 40 Grad erreicht. damit droht sich das Abschmelzen des Permafrosts – durch die Freisetzung von Methan ein sich selbst verstärkender Prozess – zu beschleunigen. https://www.liberation.fr/environnement/climat/siberie-avec-40-c-la-region-connait-la-pire-vague-de-chaleur-de-son-histoire-20230611_QONTZ25VFRASJMR6UT44HXDO7A/

Die aktuellen Hitzewellen entsprechen den Voraussagen der Klimawissenschaft.Lediglicb die stabilen Extremwetterlagen aufgrund eines mäandernden Jetstream wurden so nicht prognostiziert. Michael Mann und Joy Hassol rufen zum.Handeln auf, weil nur noch kurze Zeit bleibt, um die Erhitzung aufzuhalten, bevor Tipping Points ausgelöst werden, nach denen es zu einem Runaway climate change kommen kann. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/19/heatwave-climate-omen-change-course-weather-models

Aus 20 chinesischen Städte werden Überflutungen gemeldet, 11 der 31 chinesischen Provinzregierungen stellen sich auf weitere Extremwetter-Ereignisse ein. Die Überflutungen zu Beginn der Monsoon-Saison folgen auf eine Hitzewelle mit Rekordtemperaturen. Zu Überflutungen kam es auch in anderen ostasiatischen Ländern. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/05/world/asia/china-asia-flooding-building-collapse.html

Wenn sich die globale Erhitzung fortsetzt, wird die Anzahl kombinierter Dürren und Überflutungen zunehmen. Dabei gehört Mitteleuropa zu den besonders betroffenen Regionen. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2219825120 (via CarbonBrief)

Im Rahmen des EU-Projekts Highlander wurden die Klimadaten Italiens mit eine Auflösung von 30 km erfasst und mit Hilfe von Climate Stripes visualisiert. In einem langen Artikel blickt die Repubblica auf 30 Jahre Erhitzung in Italien zurück. https://www.repubblica.it/green-and-blue/2023/07/01/news/strisce_climatiche_italia_progetto_highlander_cineca_comuni_precisione_crisi_ambientale-405524064/

Mehr zu Italien: https://hypothes.is/users/HeinzWittenbrink?q=Italy

Die Versicherungen sind mit immer gravierenderen Folgen von Extremwetterereignissen zunehmend überfordert. Dabei sind viele Güter gar nicht gegen solche Schäden versichert. Weltweit wird der Schaden an versicherten und nichtversicherten Gütern durch solche Erignisse für 2022 auf 270, für 2021 auf 320 Milliarden Dollar geschätzt, während er in den Jahren davor bei durchschnittlich 97 Milliarden lag. https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2023/05/26/news/alluvioni_sempre_piu_difficile_per_le_assicurazioni_ripagare_i_danni_del_cambiamento_climatico-401790568/?ref=RHLF-BG-I401745819-P7-S1-T1

https://taz.de/Klimawandel-im-Mittelmeerraum/!5929928/

Die April-Hitzewelle in Spanien, Portugal und Nordafrika lässt sich auf die globale Erhitzung zurückführen. Sie folgte auf eine mehrjährige Dürre. Die World Weather Attribution Group hat errechnet, dass ein solches Ereignis in der vorindustriellen Zeit so unwahrscheinlich war, dass es praktisch nicht zu ihm kommen konnte. Die Steigerung der Extremtemperaturen ist dabei schneller, als es die Klimamodelle voraussagen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/05/april-mediterranean-heatwave-almost-impossible-without-climate-crisis

PA zur Studie: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-april-heat-in-spain-portugal-morocco-algeria-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

Die World Weather Attribution Group hat in einer Studie nachgewiesen, dass die große Dürre an Horn von Afrika ein Ergebnis der Erhitzung der Erde durch Treibhausgase ist. Von der Dürre sind 50 Millionen Menschen direkt und weitere 100 Millionen indirekt betroffen. Ohne die Erhöhung der Temperaturen hätten dieselben Regenverhältnisse nicht zu einer Dürre geführt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study

Bericht über Sponsoring-Aktivitäten der Fossilindustrie beim Wintersport

Weather has been used before to foreshadow major events. So likely something unexpected or bad will happen with this change in weather.

```bash $ curl wttr.in Weather for City: Paris, France

 \   /     Clear
  .-.      10 – 11 °C

― ( ) ― ↑ 11 km/h<br /> `-’ 10 km<br /> / \ 0.0 mm<br /> ```

‘Capitalizing on skepticism’: How the coronavirus has exposed us once again. (2022, February 16). The Seattle Times. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/capitalizing-on-skepticism-how-the-coronavirus-has-exposed-us-once-again/

https://www.today.com/news/willard-scott-dead-t152927

Topping, A. (2021, July 20). Does warm weather mean you are less likely to catch Covid? The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/20/does-warm-weather-mean-you-are-less-likely-to-catch-covid

Parker-Pope, T. (2021, April 22). Do We Still Need to Keep Wearing Masks Outdoors? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/well/live/covid-masks-outdoors.html?smid=tw-share

Jed. ‘The Geography of the COVID19 Third Wave | Jed Kolko’. Accessed 25 February 2021. http://jedkolko.com/2020/10/18/the-geography-of-the-covid19-third-wave/.

Weather in Kungälv and Göteborg

Väderkamera i Göteborg

Väderkamera i Krokslätt, Mölndal, Göteborg Weather camera in Krokslätt, Mölndal, Gothenburg

väderkamera i Göteborg

weather in Krokslätt

News, C. H., E&E. (n.d.). Summer Weather Won’t Save Us from Coronavirus. Scientific American. Retrieved July 6, 2020, from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/summer-weather-wont-save-us-from-coronavirus/

Sharkey, P., & Wood, G. (2020). The Causal Effect of Social Distancing on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/hzj7a

So, what makes an app success or failure? The most common answer that we can give for it is the development of an application.

Hironori Funabiki on Twitter

Service, B. W. (n.d.). Fire Danger—Province of British Columbia. Province of British Columbia. Retrieved June 17, 2020, from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/wildfire-situation/fire-danger

BBC Weather. (n.d.). BBC Weather. Retrieved June 17, 2020, from https://www.bbc.com/weather/0/warnings/weather

Puleo, M., & Staff Writer (2020 March 18). New study says “high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce” spread of COVID-19. https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418

Beech, H., Rubin, A. J., Kurmanaev, A., & Maclean, R. (2020, May 3). The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html

Runkle, J., Michael, K., Stevens, S., & Sugg, M. (2020, April 15). Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Text-based Crisis Patterns in Youth following Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas, 2018. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/auq5x

Martinez-Alvarez, M. et al. (2020 April 01). COVID-19 pandemic in west africa. The Lancet. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30123-6.

Hossain, M. A. (2020). Is the spread of COVID-19 across countries influenced by environmental, economic and social factors? [Preprint]. Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058164

I wasn't aware of this. Curious!

The Mackenzie Highway is the longest in the Northwest Territories. It begins at the Northwest Territory and Alberta border and ends at Wrigley, Northwest Territory. It is approximately 690 kilometers or 429 miles long. About 280 kilometers are paved while the rest of the highway is covered with gravel (Government of Northwest Territories, n.d.). The construction of this highway was ongoing between the 1940s and 1970s. In 1945, the Canadian federal government and the government of Alberta signed an agreement to build an all-weather road that would replace the existing Caterpillar tractor trails from Grimshaw to the Great Slave Lake of Hay River (Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center, n.d.). As time passed and focus shifted to fossil fuel collection, the motivation behind further construction of the Mackenzie Highway was in “anticipation of a major oil pipeline development along the Mackenzie River valley” (Pomeroy, 1985). The intended use of the highway was to enable the pipeline developers to haul construction materials throughout the area. During its construction, many chiefs of the Indian Brotherhood opposed the completion of the Mackenzie Highway. There was additional opposition voiced from the people of Wrigley who also did not support further construction of the Mackenzie Highway (Cox, 1975). 

References

Cox, B. (1975). Changing Perceptions of Industrial Development in the North. Human Organization, 27-33.

Government of Northwest Territories. (n.d.). Transportation Highway 1. Retrieved from Government of Northwest Territories: http://www.dot.gov.nt.ca/Highways/Highway_System/NWTHwy1

Pomeroy, J. (1985). An Identification of Environmental Disturbances from Road Developments in Subarctic Muskeg. Arctic, 104-111.

Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center. (n.d.). Historical Timeline of the Northwest Territories. Retrieved from Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Center: http://www.nwttimeline.ca/1925/1948_MackenzieHighway.htm

they are talking about the weather theyll meet in

The decision to veto the proposed pipeline in accordance with Mr. Berger’s recommendation substantially slowed, but did not stop the search for oil in the Arctic. Over the next 40 years, oil companies such as Shell, Exxon, and Chevron would continue their search in a region expected to contain 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas.1 But in 2015, Shell, the last remaining company in the American Arctic, announced it would halt its exploratory drilling. This would mark the end of their $7 billion venture into Alaska’s Chuckchi Sea. The well, the Burger J, stretched to a depth of 6,800 feet and showed indications of oil and gas, but amid relatively low oil prices, less than $50 a barrel, and the expense necessary to drill in this section of the ocean they have decided to cease operations. The company originally planned on drill two wells to greater than 8,000 feet, but in the wake of Shell grounding its Kulluck drilling rig, this number was halved by President Obama’s administration.2 This grounding was found to be, in part, the result of Shell’s ill-fated attempt to avoid paying millions of dollars in tax liability. Fortune’s Jon Birger noted in his visit to the rig after it was grounded that it was well prepared to prevent the incident that destroyed BP’s Deepwater Horizon, but, startlingly, was less equipped to deal with the unique weather conditions posed by drilling in the Arctic.3 The Berger report may not have halted Shell’s Artic exploration but a combination of regulatory restrictions and low oil prices seem to have done just that.

1. Lavelle, Marianne. "Coast Guard blames Shell risk-taking in Kulluk rig accident." National Geographic. April 4, 2014. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/04/140404-coast-guard-blames-shell-in-kulluk-rig-accident/.
2. Koch, Wendy. "3 reasons why Shell halted drilling in the Arctic." National Geographic. September 28, 2015. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/energy/2015/09/150928-3-reasons-shell-halted-drilling-in-the-arctic/.
3. Birger, Jon. "What I learned aboard Shell's grounded Alaskan oil rig." Fortune. January 3, 2013. Accessed March 7, 2017. http://fortune.com/2013/01/03/what-i-learned-aboard-shells-grounded-alaskan-oil-rig/.

about 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain last night. It did help

Roughly 50 years from initial efforts to first successful forecasts.

The complexity of the forecasting problem was initially overcome in the 1940's both by an improved rate of calculation (using computers) and by simplifying the models to focus on the most important factors.

Despite failing to predict the weather accurately, Richardson posted his results publicly. This is an important step in allowing the improvement of forecasting because it makes it possible to learn what works and what doesn't more quickly. See also Brian McGill's 6th P of Good Prediction

Nice concise description of the poor performance and impracticality of early weather forecasting.

Weather for New Hampshire by PSU