417 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
    1. for example arctic char the fish species that's already 00:09:00 all across the arctic region living at its temperature level about 24 degrees celsius in freshwater ecosystems one fraction of a decree further and we 00:09:13 will enter into a cycle of fish death events that will cascade in food security loss of culture and many other things of this keystone species on the aquatic ecosystems for 00:09:25 communities and nature alike

      See Camilo Mora's nature 2013 paper on climate departure:.https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

    2. she pointed out that climate finance to small island states declined by 25 percent in 2019 but she also offered 00:22:36 what she called a sword that can cut down this gordian knot of finance and she reminded us that 25 trillion dollars of quantitative easing has been produced in the last 13 years and that 9 trillion 00:22:49 of that was just in the last 18 months alone in order to deal with the covet crisis an annual increase in special drawing rights of 500 billion dollars a year for 20 years putting trust to finance the 00:23:01 transition is what she suggested is the real gap that we need to close not the 50 billion being proposed for adaptation and she concluded by saying if 500 billion sounds big it's just two percent 00:23:14 of that 25 trillion dollars that has already been created through quantitative easing so my question is is actually not an economic question it's more of a political question really what are the barriers to using that mechanism for the 00:23:28 enormous threat of climate change in the way it's been used for the frankly lesser threat of of covid and what can be done to build support for it

      Excellent comparison give here. Unless we have salient comparison of figures, we can think a number sounds big.

    3. i 00:35:57 think that's really important but i want to come back to a bigger issue which is the lack of the hundred billion dollars and also loss and damage and i think that actually goes back to a lack 00:36:09 of knowledge and education in the developed world about our history and i think this is incredibly important that we need to think not just about the science but actually educating people 00:36:20 about colonization about how much we've actually admitted i think that if we can get the developed world to actually understand uh the crimes of our past to 00:36:32 be able to understand why there is this trust issue i think that's actually critical and it sounds really strange to deal with history to actually save the planet to deal with climate change but 00:36:44 i've become more convinced having heard politicians who supposedly studied history and politics at university must admit it was a very strange small oxford university you know they're not very 00:36:56 good but again i think we really have that whole education piece to do before we can acknowledge those crimes and move forward

      Education about the history of colonization is critical to helping developed country leaders understand and prioritize the transfer of funds.

    4. if the trust equation is undermined then there is little hope that the 00:15:22 integrity of the carbon equation will be maintained

      This is a critical link between successful decarbonization and climate justice - no climate justice means no successful decarbonization/

    5. arctic fox is now gone it's no longer nesting in in 00:09:38 finnish army and arctic areas and uh its habitats are overtaken by red fox more southern and boreal species so the species on the move is one of the factors that's really altering the kind 00:09:51 of life that we know here

      Arctic Fox is being replaced by Red Fox

    1. Trans Mountain said there have not been any oil leaks due to the flooding, which has triggered an emergency shutdown of the pipeline lasting longer than any previous stoppage in its nearly 70-year-history.
    1. The climate catastrophe we're facing is the result of three issues, three processes.
      1. The tragedy of the commons, the free-rider problem
      2. Coordination (money is there)
      3. Capitalist beast eating up everything to survive.

      The first 2 are solvable - for the 3rd we need to reconsider [[property rights]].

  2. Nov 2021
    1. we believe that knowledge must be shared in order for humanity to survive and thrive—and that it is essential to help fight climate change.
    2. The open movement must develop a clear and deep relationship of collaboration with the climate movement, most importantly because the latter is the locus of political renewal and connection of an intersectional approach to action and change.
    1. What resources are powering our projects and how do we manage those resources? Are we willing to approach our work with a set of values that centers several generations after us? And how do we do that?What protections do we need to fight for in the workplace to hold companies accountable around climate justice goals?How do we measure our impact on the climate crisis?Are we willing to sundown projects if mitigating their negative impact on the environment is impossible or creates little impact?

      great questions

    1. ns often accounting for the highest

      Don t miss any climate action events in 2021, this climate change conference will focus entirely on supply chain decarbonisation. Throughout the conference, we’ll focus on the practical steps that businesses can take to shift mindsets from ‘less harm’ to ‘more good’.

    1. Poultry scientists have also succeeded in selecting for parthenogenesis, increasing the incidence in Beltsville small white turkeys more than threefold, to 41.5 percent in five generations. Environmental factors—like high temperatures or a viral infection—also seem to trigger poultry parthenogenesis.

      Parthenogenesis can be selected for in breeding.

      What might this look like in other animal models. What do the long term effects of such high percentages potentially look like?

      Could this be a tool for guarding against rising temperatures in the looming climate crisis?

    1. Not feasible due to high cost, setup time, not variable enough, producing more waste power kWh. Unproven technology eliminating the prospect for cost reductions due to scaling manufacturing (chicken-egg}.

    1. e.g. Idea from Yuval Harari’s Sapiens that Europe and Asia developed better civilisation than Americas because Americas span vertically lot of climates making it harder to share agriculture progress between different climates.

      Apparently Yuval Harari didn't footnote very well as this idea is directly from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel which predated Harari's book.

  3. Oct 2021
    1. A recent survey found that only 14% of people they surveyed in the United States talk about climate change. A previous Yale study found that 35% either discuss it occasionally or hear somebody else talk about it. Those are low for something that over 70% of people are worried about.

      Conversation is not happening! There is a leverage point in holding open conversations where we understand each other’s language of different cultural groups. Finding common ground, the common human denominators (CHD) between polarized groups is the lynchpin.

    2. For a talk at one conservative Christian college, Dr. Hayhoe – an atmospheric scientist, professor of political science at Texas Tech University, and the chief scientist for The Nature Conservancy – decided to emphasize how caring about climate change is in line with Christian values and, ultimately, is “pro-life” in the fullest sense of that word. Afterward, she says, people “were able to listen, acknowledge it, and think about approaching [climate change] a little differently.”

      We often talk about the same things, share the same values, have the same common human denominators, but couched in different language. It is critical to get to the root of what we have in common in order to establish meaningful dialogue.

    3. I was speaking in Iowa, and I was asked, “How do you talk to people in Iowa about polar bears?” I said, “You don’t; you talk to them about corn.” If we begin a conversation with someone with something we already agree on, then the subtext is: “You care about this, and I care too. We have this in common.”

      This stresses the importance of applying Deep Humanity wisely by finding the most compelling, salient and meaningful common human denominators appropriate for each conversational context. Which group are we interacting with? What are the major landmarks embedded in THEIR salience landscape?

      The BEing journeys we craft will only be meaningful and impactful if they are appropriately matched to the cultural context.

      The whole mind- body understanding of how we cognitively construct our reality, via Deep Humanity BEing journeys, can help shift our priorities.

    4. I am frequently shamed for not doing enough. Some of that comes from the right side of the [political] spectrum, but increasingly a larger share of that shaming comes from people at the opposite end of the spectrum, who are so worried and anxious about climate impacts that their response is to find anyone who isn’t doing precisely what they think they should be doing and shame them.

      Love, or recognizing the other person in the other tribe as sacred, is going to connect with that person because we are, after all, all of us are human INTERbeings, and love is the affective variable that connects us while shame is a variable that DISconnects us. Love is , in fact, one of our most powerful common human denominators.

    5. When we practice active hope, when we look at what people are doing, and we share those stories with others and talk about what we can do together, then we realize that the boulder is already at the top of the hill and is rolling down in the right direction, and has millions of hands on it. It’s just not going fast enough.

      This statement is right on. It has now become a question about the RATE of system change we can achieve to avoid a degraded future. The faster we act, the less degraded it will become.

  4. bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. Fundamental features of human psychology can constrain the perceived personal relevance andimportance of climate change, limiting both action and internalization of the problem. Cognitiveshortcuts developed over millennia make us ill-suited in many ways to perceiving and respondingto climate change (152),including a tendency to place less emphasis on time-delayed and physicallyremote risks and to selectively downplay information that is at odds with our identity or worldview(153). Risk perception relies on intuition and direct perceptual signals (e.g., an immediate, tangiblethreat), whereas for most high-emitting households in the Global North, climate change does notpresent itself in these terms, except in the case of local experiences of extreme weather events.

      This psychological constraint is worth demonstrating to individuals to illustrate how we construct our values and responses. These constraints can be demonstrated in a vivid way wiithin the context of Deep Humanity BEing journeys.

    1. The climate of Japan is predominantly temperate but varies greatly from north to south. The northernmost region, Hokkaido, has a humid continental climate with long, cold winters and very warm to cool summers. Precipitation is not heavy, but the islands usually develop deep snowbanks in the winter.[85]

      Climate of japan

  5. Sep 2021
    1. Global air traffic is expected to double to 8.2 billion passengers in 2037, according to IATA, which predicts that aviation's 2019 emissions peak of around 900 million metric tons of CO2 will be exceeded within the next two to three years.At the same time, the window to cut the world's reliance on fossil fuels and avoid catastrophic changes to the climate is closing rapidly. The International Energy Agency forecasts that aviation's share of global carbon emissions will increase to 3.5% by 2030 from just over 2.5% in 2019 in the absence of efforts to further decarbonize.

      SRG education campaign for air travellers ( mostly middle class and rich) to do their part and minimize air travel until the breakthrough technologies are here. Temporary abstinence or voluntary lotto system.

    1. Vorabbericht über den Kompass für Deutschland an dem Wissenschaftler/innen und Unternehmerinnen mit u.a. Maja Göpel und Johan Rockström gearbeitet haben: Maßnahmen für eine Transformation der Wirtschaft hin zu Klimaneutralität. Eine große Rolle spielen dabei neue Methoden der Bilanzierung und der Messung von Wohlstand.

    1. Since about 70% of water delivered from the Colorado River goes to growing crops, not to people in cities, the next step will likely be to demand large-scale reductions for farmers and ranchers across millions of acres of land, forcing wrenching choices about which crops to grow and for whom — an omen that many of America’s food-generating regions might ultimately have to shift someplace else as the climate warms.

      Deep Concept: The US Government, in the 1960's/70's provided a crystal ball glimpse into the future by defining climate change (man-made global warming) as a national security concern. Various reports warned of "exponential" growth (population) and related man-made factors (technology etc.) that would contribute to climate change and specifically discussed the possibility of irreconcilable damage to "finite" natural resources.

    2. The tunnel far below represented Nevada’s latest salvo in a simmering water war: the construction of a $1.4 billion drainage hole to ensure that if the lake ever ran dry, Las Vegas could get the very last drop

      Deep Concept: Modern America is mostly corrupt from it's own creation of wealth. Wealth is power, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely! Money and wealth have completely changed the underlying foundation of America. Modern America is the corrupted result of wealth. Morality and ethics in modern American have been reshaped to "fit" European Aristocracy, ironically the same European aristocracy America fled in the Revolutionary War.

      Billions and billions of tax payer money is spent on projects that could never pass rigorous examination and best public ROI use. Political authoritative conditions rule public tax money for the benefit of a few at the expense of the many. The public "cult-like" sheep have no clue how they are being abused.

      The authoritative abusers (politicians) follow the "mostly" corrupt American (fuck-you) form of government and individual power tactics that have been conveniently embedded in corrupt modern morality and ethics, used by corrupted lawyers and judges to codify the fundamental moral code that underpins the original American Constitution.

    1. No one but Humboldt had looked at the relationship between humankind and nature like this before.

      Apparently even with massive globalization since the 1960s, many humans (Americans in particular) are still unable to see our impacts on the world in which we live. How can we make our impact more noticed at the personal and smaller levels? Perhaps this will help to uncover the harms which we're doing to each other and the world around us?

  6. Aug 2021
  7. Jul 2021
    1. Limiting warming to 1.5°C implies reaching net zero CO2 emissions globally around 2050 and concurrent deep reductions in emissions of non-CO2 forcers, particularly methane (high confidence). Such mitigation pathways are characterized by energy-demand reductions, decarbonization of electricity and other fuels, electrification of energy end use, deep reductions in agricultural emissions, and some form of CDR with carbon storage on land or sequestration in geological reservoirs.

      This is where the net zero by 2050 comes from. Note in this scenario it requires CDR ... plus massive transformations in energy and production systems.

    2. Pathways that aim for limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 after a temporary temperature overshoot rely on large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures, which are uncertain and entail clear risks.

      People supporting CDR are supporting a hail mary.

    3. Limiting warming to 1.5°C depends on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next decades, where lower GHG emissions in 2030 lead to a higher chance of keeping peak warming to 1.5°C (high confidence). Available pathways that aim for no or limited (less than 0.1°C) overshoot of 1.5°C keep GHG emissions in 2030 to 25–30 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2030 (interquartile range). This contrasts with median estimates for current unconditional NDCs of 52–58 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2030.

      i.e. current commitments have 2x the amount of CO2 emitted per year in 2030 that is compatible with 1.5°.

  8. Jun 2021
    1. Ultimately, having access to the top political decision makers and using biased studies, the industrial lobbies have managed to sabotage the reforms the Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat called for. A context and tactic we are only too familiar with.

      Details? What biased studies? how did they sabotage this?

  9. May 2021
    1. the climate movement is also structurally vulnerable to doomist intellectuals who claim that science supports their ideas.

      Betrifft das Verhältnis von wissenschaftlichen zu anderen Texten. Das Privileg des Doomism ist also auch eines der Klimakommunikation.

    1. 71% of global emissions can be traced back to 100 companies,

      This would seem to fall into the Pareto principle guidelines. How can we minimize the emissions from just these 100 companies?

    1. C.1.3. Limiting global warming requires limiting the total cumulative global anthropogenic emissions of CO2 since the pre-industrial period, that is, staying within a total carbon budget (high confidence).1414By the end of 2017, anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the pre-industrial period are estimated to have reduced the total carbon budget for 1.5°C by approximately 2200 ± 320 GtCO2 (medium confidence). The associated remaining budget is being depleted by current emissions of 42 ± 3 GtCO2 per year (high confidence).

      With a total remaining budget of around 580 Gt => we have 10y max at current rates ..

      And this was written in 2014! So approx by 2025.

    1. Right now, most of the blockchain mining in the world happens in China, where provinces with the cheapest energy set up mining operations to do the ‘proof of work’ calculations that the dominant paradigm of blockchain requires. Factories that ostensibly make other things now acquire significant computing hardware and dedicate energy in order to, essentially, print money that’s then stored offshore. A recent study shows that 40% of China’s mostly bitcoin mining is powered by coal-burning. We also already know that non-blockchain server farms in cheap energy countries consume so much energy they distort national grids, and throw off huge amounts of heat that then need cooling for the servers to operate, creating a vicious cycle of energy consumption
  10. Apr 2021
    1. Despite important agricultural advancements to feed the world in the last 60 years, a Cornell-led study shows that global farming productivity is 21% lower than it could have been without climate change. This is the equivalent of losing about seven years of farm productivity increases since the 1960s.
  11. Mar 2021
    1. The owners of coal-burning power stations in the UK have not obtained the consent of everyone who owns a lake or a forest in Sweden to deposit acid rain there.

      Reply to Rothbard absolute libertarianism.

    2. a simple and coherent explanation of why libertarianism is so often associated with climate change denial, and the playing down or dismissal of other environmental issues.

      They don't want to pay what is owed to the planet.

    1. Manmade CO2 Does Not Cause Measurable Warming

      Actually, CO2 does cause measurable warming. The warming effect is not huge, and not worrisome, but it is not zero, and it is large enough to be measurable.

      There really is no question about the fact that the Earth's average temperature has warmed slightly, as CO2 levels have risen, over the last six decades. The magnitude of that change is debatable: different "global" composite temperature indices vary in their measured trend by approximately a factor of two. But none of them show zero trend.

      https://sealevel.info/GISS_vs_UAH_and_HadCRUT_1958-2018_woodfortrees_annot2.png

      The "climate sensitivity" of the Earth's temperatures to changes in CO2 level can be estimated by careful comparison of measured temperatures to measured CO2 levels. Here's an example on my web site, showing how that can be done:

      https://sealevel.info/sensitivity.html

      Climate change is a highly politicized issue, so, as is the case for any politicized issue, if you want to understand it you need to seek out balanced information. If you want to learn about the SCIENCE of climate change, instead of political spin, here's a list of resources which can help:

      https://tinyurl.com/learnmore4

      It has:

      ● accurate introductory climatology information

      ● in-depth science from BOTH skeptics & alarmists

      ● links to balanced debates between experts on BOTH sides

      ● information about climate impacts

      ● links to the best blogs on BOTH sides of the issue

    1. Baker, C. M., Campbell, P. T., Chades, I., Dean, A. J., Hester, S. M., Holden, M. H., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Moss, R., Shearer, F. M., & Possingham, H. P. (2020). From climate change to pandemics: Decision science can help scientists have impact. ArXiv:2007.13261 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.13261

    1. The study, published in Nature Food, presents EDGAR-FOOD – the first database to break down emissions from each stage of the food chain for every year from 1990 to 2015. The database also unpacks emissions by sector, greenhouse gas and country. 
    1. ReconfigBehSci. (2020, November 9). Now underway at SciBeh workshop are our 3 hackathons: 1. Combatting COVID-19 misinformation with lessons from climate change denial 2. Optimising research dissemination and curation 3. ReSearch Engine: Search Engine for SciBeh’s knowledge base & beyond [Tweet]. @SciBeh. https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1325796158887882752

    1. „Die Meinung einer Minderheit kann in der Öffentlichkeit als Mehrheit erscheinen, wenn ihre Anhänger nur selbstbewusst genug auftreten und ihre Meinung öffentlich mit Nachdruck vertreten.“

      Einleitung (überarbeitet) des Handbuchs Klimakommunikation, das auf Noelle-Neumanns Konzept der Schweigespirale zurückgreift.

    1. In this pivotal year for climate action, much will depend on the updated 2030 emissions-reduction target that the US sets for itself. To meet the challenge at hand, the new target will need to be even more ambitious than the 50% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions (from 2005 levels) that is currently being floated in Washington.
  12. Feb 2021
    1. More recently, from 2009 to 2014, Hastrup ran Waterworlds, a major European research project analysing social responses to climate change,[5] followed by fieldwork in Greenland, where she researched the effects of the modern world on a small community of hunters.[6]
    1. Die Dokumentation erhielt die Auszeichnung als „Bester Wissenschaftsfilm“ beim Internationalen Green Screen Naturfilmfestival in Eckernförde 2020. Die Einschätzung der internationalen Jury des Green Screen Festivals in der Laudatio zum Film: „Er zeigt anhand anschaulicher Einzelschicksale und verstörender Bilder die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Rentierhirten und die Natur Sibiriens, ohne den globalen Bezug aus den Augen zu verlieren." Außerdem gewann der Film 2020 beim „Jackson Wild Festival“ in der Kategorie „Best Changing Planet Film - Long Form“.

      Ein differenzierter und bedrückender Film über die Folgen der globalen Erhitzung in Sibirien. Zwei Zitate: "In Sibirien wurde die Büchse der Pandora geöffnet." Und: "Die Nenzen stehen schon jetzt vor einer Entscheidung, die den Verursachern des Klimawandels noch erspart bleibt, der zwischen zwei Übeln. In ihrem Fall: Sollen ihre Rentiere verhungern oder erfrieren?"

    1. Section 1-102 of Executive Order 12898 of February 11, 1994

      NYU's Institute for Policy Integrity publish a report which

      "provides background on Executive Order 12,898 and explains how renewed national attention to environmental justice presents an opportunity to improve agency compliance with the Order." See: "Improving Environmental Justice Analysis: Executive Order 12,898 and Climate Change," By Iliana Paul, Christine Pries, and Max Sarinsky, January 28, 2021

  13. Jan 2021
    1. sectoral decarbonization,

      Hopefully, the focus on "decarbonization" will include all greenhouse gases, even those that contain no Carbon. It is important to recognize that carbon-free gases, including nitrogen oxides, hydrogen, and others, also have a significant Global Warming Potential (GWP) -- often much greater than that of carbon dioxide. According the EPA, nitrous oxide (N2O) has a GWP 265–298 times greater than CO2, which has a GWP of 1. Researchers report a GWP of 5.8 for hydrogen.

    2. a report identifying the climate strategies and technologies that will result in the most air and water quality improvements

      One would expect such a report to say much about reducing emissions from electricity generation, however, in many states, particularly those in the Northeast and North, electricity generation and use only produces a small portion of GHG emissions. In New York State, electricity generation is responsible for less than 20% of emissions while heating and transportation each produce between 35% and 40% of emissions. Thus, in New York, emissions from electricity are a third-level priority. In New York, a focus on adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles will contribute more to cleaning our air and water than a focus on electricity.

      It is important that this report identify strategies and technologies which are appropriate for the various regions of the country.

    1. Ein kurzer Text von Brigitte Nerlich, der—wenn ich es richtig sehe—einige wichtige Elemente ihres Zugangs zur Analyse der Sprache wissenschaftlicher Texte enthält.

    2. Hulme and colleagues set out to reveal patterns of attention and, in particular, patterns of framing6 with regards to how climate change is portrayed in these editorials, and how these patterns are related to wider political and scientific events. The authors identified frames by reading and discussing nearly 500 editorials on climate change (333 in Nature, 160 in Science) published in the two journals between 1966 and 2016, extracted using search terms such as ‘climate’, ‘greenhouse’, ‘carbon’, ‘warming’, ‘weather’, ‘atmosphere’ and ‘pollution’.
    1. Für die Klimakommunikation aber ist es jetzt Zeit für eine Schwerpunktverschiebung: weg von der Frage der Generierung von Aufmerksamkeit, Interesse und Verständnis für das existenzielle Thema und hin zur Kommunikation von Lösungen, zur Beteiligung an Debatten und zur Ermutigung zum Diskurs, zum Engagement – und zum Wandel.
    1. The small size of the remaining carbon budget emphasises the need for net-zero CO2 emissions targets at the international, national and even subnational level. 

      Ein wichtiger Punkt sind die Net Zero Targets auf subnationaler Ebene,

    2. The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and temperature change is known as the “Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions” (TCRE) and is a robust predictor of CO2-induced warming across a wide range of emissions levels and pathways.

      Ist für mich ein weiterer Topic bei der Darstellung der globalen Erwärmung.\(Insert LaTeX\)

    3. In the context of net-zero targets, our 230-440bn tonne range would be consistent with a scenario where CO2 emissions decrease linearly from 2019 levels to net-zero by between 2032 and 2042. 

      Das ist die Begründung für die XR-Forderung nach Dekarbonisierung bis 2025 in den reichen Ländern.

    1. Kerry, the former US secretary of state, acknowledged that America had been absent from the international effort to contain dangerous global heating during Donald Trump’s presidency but added that “today no country and no continent is getting the job done”.
    1. Alle an Klimakommunikation beteiligten Akteure können einen Beitrag leisten, die Debatte immer wieder auf den entscheidenden Punkt zu bringen: Was können wir und insbesondere diejenigen, die in Wirtschaft und Politik Verantwortung tragen, hier und jetzt tun, um die Emissionen von Kohlendioxid und anderen Treibhausgasen einzugrenzen? Die folgenden sechs Empfehlungen sind nicht als Allheilmittel oder Universalrezept gemeint, sondern als Anregung, darüber nachzudenken, wie wir über das Thema Klimawandel kommunizieren. Das zentrale Kriterium effektiver Kommunikation müsste dabei die Frage sein: Bringt das, was wir zum Thema sagen, die Menschen dazu, hier und jetzt über Klimaschutz nachzudenken?
    1. Even before Mr. Biden was inaugurated on Wednesday, some Republicans lashed out against his new policy direction.

      Bericht über die ersten Executive Orders Bidens zum Klimanotstand und über die Widerstände dagegen.

    1. Dieser Artikel enthält die wichtigsten Elemente des Temperaturrekords als eines historischen Events: Einordnung in eine Reihe, Extensivität und Konkretisierung (Europa). Temperatuurekord in Europa, Verweis auf die Temperaturen der Ozeane, Verlinkung auf wissenschaftliche Institutionen als Quellen. Bezug zum vorindustriellen Niveau. Verweis auf die Zukunft.

    1. Yesterday was the day that NASA, NOAA, the Hadley Centre and Berkeley Earth delivered their final assessments for temperatures in Dec 2020, and thus their annual summaries. The headline results have received a fair bit of attention in the media (NYT, WaPo, BBC, The Guardian etc.) and the conclusion that 2020 was pretty much tied with 2016 for the warmest year in the instrumental record is robust.

      Links zur Berichterstattung in der englischsprachigen Presse. Der Artikel geht vor allem auf die Sicherheit und Unsicherheit der Angaben zur Durchschnittstemperatur ein.

    1. People thrive in a wide range of climates. The projected climate change is small relative to the diurnal cycle. It is therefore rather peculiar to conclude that climate change will be disastrous. Those who claim so have been unable to explain why. https://twitter.com/RichardTol/status/1313182006310731776?s=20

      This is shocking!

    2. These predictions are absurd. A 3°C increase could trigger, and a6°C increase would trigger, every “tipping element” shown in Table 2. The Earth would have a climate unlike anything our species has experienced in its existence, and the Earth would transition to it hundreds of times faster than it has in any previous naturally-driven global warming event (McNeall et al., 2011). The Tropics and much of the globe’s temperate zone would be uninhabitable by humans and most other life forms. And yet Nordhaus thinks it would only reduce the global economy by just 8%?Comically, Nordhaus’s damage function is symmetrical — it predicts the same damages from a fall in temperature as for an equivalent rise. It therefore predicts that a 6°C fall in global temperature would also reduce GGP by just 7.9% (see Figure 3). Unlike global warming, we do know what the world was like when the temperature was 6°C below 20th century levels: that was the average temperature of the planet during the last Ice Age (Tierney et al., 2020), which ended about 20,000 years ago. At the time, all of America north of New York, and of Europe north of Berlin, was beneath a kilometre of ice. The thought that a transition to such a climate in just over a century would cause global production to fall by less than 8% is laughable.Again, I found myself in the position of a forensic detective, trying to work out how on Earth could otherwise intelligent people come to believe that climate change would only affect industries that are directly exposed to the weather, and that the correlation between climate today and economic output today across the globe could be used to predict the impact of global warming on the economy? The only explanation that made sense is that these economists were mistaking the weather for the climate.

      Wow!

    1. Bericht über eine Fernsehsendung mit Michael Mann, bei der es insbesondere darum geht, dass ein rascher stop der CO2 Emissionen schon in wenigen Jahren dazu führen kann, dass sich die globale Erhitzung nicht länger fortsetzt.

    1. The widespread idea that decades, or even centuries, of additional warming are already baked into the system, as suggested by previous IPCC reports, were based on an “unfortunate misunderstanding of experiments done with climate models that never assumed zero emissions.” 
    2. Wie sah die globale Erhitzung im vergangenen Jahr genau aus? Noch bedrohlicher, als erwartet, wie dieser Überblick über die letzten Daten und Forschungsergebnisse zeigt.

    1. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponent
    1. removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean,

      Diese Ergebnisse sind inzwischen wohl revidiert.

    1. This reprieve will not necessarily spare polar ice sheets or evade tipping points that cannot be recrossed, the scientist cautions, and Earth is already experiencing “much more extreme weather … than we expected 10 years ago”.

      Die relativ optimistische Erkenntnis, dass ich die Erwärmung in den nächsten Jahren noch relativ schnell stoppen lässt, bedeutet also nicht, dass nicht vorher schon Kippelemente ausgelöst werden könnten. Michael Mann spricht hier ausdrücklich von einem Minenfeld, in dem sich die Menschheit bewegt.