for - futures - backcasting - question - what does a world within planetary boundaries look like?

for - Donald Trump re-election - existential risk - planetary tipping points - earth system boundaries - study - Impact 2024 - Cascade Institute - polycrisis - Trump reelection - increase risk

Der neue Planetary Health Check des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung ergibt, dass durch die Versauerung der Ozeane möglicherweise gerade die siebte von 9 planetaren Grenzen durchbrochen wird und die Biosphäre auch hier in eine Hochrisikozone eintritt. Bei allen anderen mit Ausnahme des Ozonschwunds haben sich die Bedingungen verschlechtert. Die CO2- Emissionen treiben die Versauerung an, die wiederum die Fähigkeit der Ozeane mindert, als CO2-Senke zu wirken. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/23/earth-breach-planetary-boundaries-health-check-oceans

Website zum Planetary Health Check: https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - earth system boundaries - safe and just earth system boundaries - cross translated - to cities and business - planetary boundaries - downscaled planetary boundaries - urban planetary boundaries - Johan Rockstrom - Xuemei Bao - Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - Earth Commission report

paper details - title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations - authors: - Joyeeta Gupta - Xuemei Bao - Johan Rockstrom - Diana M Liverman <br /> - Dahe Qin - Ben Stewart-Koster - et al - publication: Lancet 2024, Sept 11

summary

for - sustainable building - building reuse vs new build - which is better? - California Forever - intentional community - green debate

sustainable building - building reuse vs new build - which is better? - Study by Preservation Green Lab in 2012 concluded that in most cases, reusing existing buildings is far lower carbon footprint than building new - Research study shows that we cannot expand human activity into intact nature any longer if we are to stay within planetary boundaries - Rockstrom - https://hyp.is/0dbJ4FQSEe-QxY8q4Y3yvw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaboF3vAsZs

for - urban planetary boundaries - barriers to transition - downscaled planetary boundaries - barriers to transition - cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries - barriers to transition - question - retrofitting cities to stay within the doughnut - what are the challenges?

for - examples of planetary boundaries novel entities

for - World economic forum - integration planetary boundaries into their strategy

Concern - unintended consequence - The WEF is perceived by many to be an elitist organisation - who do not have the best interest off the people in mind - This could lead to potential reputational damage to the planetary boundary framework thru their association with it

for - planetary boundaries - ocean biology - net primary production

for - planetary boundaries - lack of ocean biological boundary

for - planetary boundaries - 2023 - all 9 fully quantified

for - interview - Johan Rockstrom - planetary boundaries

for - progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries

progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries - The podcaster does not consider the ramifications of the potential disastrous impact of such economic growth if not managed properly

for - followup - downscaling planetary boundaries - challenges - Dillman et al.

.> for - key insight - downscaling planetary boundaries - Steffen et al.

• for: SONEC, neighborhood circles, downscaled planetary boundaries, earth system boundaries, community governance, neighborocracy, neighbourhood parliament, healthy power, toxic power

• title: SoNeC: Sociocratic Neighbourhood Circles in Europe

• date: 2022
• authors:
  • Barbara Sirauch
  • Rita Mayrhofer

• collaborators

  • Maria-Juliana Byck
  • Orsolya Lelkes
  • Johannes Zimm
  • Pia Haerlinger
  • Naya Tselepi
  • Nathaniel Whitestone

• summary

  • SONEC offers a framework for relocalization of the economy but it will require very careful planning to create the right conditions for the emergence of local wellbeing economies.
  • One of the leverage points is the cosmolocal nature of SONEC, allowing the rapid, global sharing of good and best practices
  • This will be important because if SONEC is to reach its potential to awaken the sleeping giant of citizens to drive the necessary changes to mitigate the worst of the current existential polylcrisis, we will need a global synchronization of collective action at the local level.

C40 High Impact Accelerators - sustainable cities - downscaled planetary boundaries

for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - a Second Trump presidency - polycrisis - politics and climate crisis - climate mitigation strategy - voting in 2024 U.S. election - adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting

adjacency - between - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Trump's presidency is existential threat to humanity - Gen Z voting - 2024 election - adjacency statement - Michael Mann's quote " A second Trump term is game over for the climate - really" applies to the 2024 election if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. - Trumps dismal environmental record in his 2016 to 2020 term speaks for itself. He would do something similiar in 2025 if he were the president. G - Given there are only 5 years and 172 days before we hit the dangerous threshold of burning through all the carbon budget for humanity, - https://climateclock.world/ - It is questionable whether Biden's government alone can do enough, but certainly if Trump won the 2024 election, his term in office would create a regression severe enough to put the Paris Climate goal of staying within 1.5 Deg C out of reach, and risk triggering major planetary tipping points - A Biden government is evidence-based and believes in anthropogenic climate change and is already taking measures to mitigate it. A Trump government is not evidence-based and is supported by incumbent fossil fuel industry so does not have the interest of the U.S. population nor all of humanity at heart. - Hence, the 2024 U.S. election can really determine the fate of humanity. - Gen Z can play a critical role for humanity by voting against a government that would, in leading climate scientists Michael Mann's words, be game over for a stable climate, and therefore put humanity and unimaginable risk. - Gen Z can swing the vote to a government willing to deal with the climate crisis over one in climate denial so voting activists need to be alerted to this and create the right messaging to reach Gen Z - https://hyp.is/LOud7sBBEe6S0D8itLHw1A/circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024

• for: downscaled earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, TPF

• for: downscaled planetary boundaries, downscaling planetary boundaries
• annotate

• for: planetary boundaries - critique
• annotate

• for: downscaled planetary boundaries, planetary boundary cities, ARUP - planetary boundary design

• comment

  • There is no threshold information, just general design methods

• for: annotate, urban planning, downscaled planetary boundaries, downscale earth system boundaries

• for: Kevin Anderson, transition, climate equity, climate justice, climate justice - Kevin Anderson, carbon inequality - Kevin Anderson, life within planetary boundaries, lifestyle within planetary boundaries - elites, climate crisis - Kevin Anderson

• summary

  • Kevin offers a picture of what a world within the stable climate planetary boundary would look like for the wealthy of the planet.

Durch die Überschreitung von 6 der 9 planetaren Grenzen wurde der „safe operating space for humanity“ verlassen. Die neue Studie analysiert auf Basis von 2000 Studien erstmals die Situation bei allen planetaren Grenzen. Als besonders bedrohlich schätzen die Forschenden ein, dass 4 direkt auf das Leben bezogene Grenzen überschritten wurden. Die dadurch mangelnde Resilienz könnte es auch unabhängig von Emissions-Senkungen unmöglich machen, das 1,5°-Ziel zu erreichen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-find

6 von 9 planetaren Grenzen wurden bereits überschritten, wie eine neue gemeinsame Studie von Erdsystemwissenschaftler:innen zeigt. Es handelt sich um die Grenzen bei globaler Erwärmung, Biosdiversität, Entwaldung, Schadstoffe, Stickstoffkreislauf und Süßwasser. Die Studie stammt vor allem von Autori:innen, die das Konzept der planetaren Grenzen entwickelt hatten. https://taz.de/Studie-zur-Belastung-des-Planeten/!5960174/

Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

• for: urban development, inequality, just boundaries, safe and just boundaries, climate justice, urban planetary boundaries, livable cities, earth system boundaries, earth system justice
• title: Urban inequalities in the 21st century economy
• author: Jan niman, Yehua Dennis Wei
• date: Apr 2, 2020
• source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124478/

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point

• stats

  • 10000 to 1 million is optimum size
• question: investigate rationale

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point
• key finding
  • suitable cohorts and cohort ranges for rapidly deploying climate and sustainability actions between a single individual and the globally projected ∼ 10 billion persons by 2050 is:
  • community scale between 10k and 100k

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point
• title: Powers of 10: seeking 'sweet spots' for rapid climate and sustainability actions between individual and global scales

• for: smart cities, doughnut cities, cosmolocal, downscaled planetary boundaries, cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, TPF, community data, local data, open data, community data ownership, quote, quote - Garth Graham, quote - community owned data
• quote
• paraphrase
  • Innovation in the creation and sustainability of social institutions acts predominantly at the local level.
  • In the Internet of Things, for those capacities to emerge in smart cities, communities need the capacity to own and analyse the data created that models what they are experiencing.
  • Local data needs to be seen as a common, pool resource.
  • Where that occurs, communities will have the capacity to learn or innovate their way forward.
  • So far, smart city systems are being set up to appropriate and commercialize individual and community data.
  • So far, communities are not waking up to the realization that a capacity they need is being stolen from them before they have it.
• author: Garth Graham
  • leader of Telecommunities Canada

• for: regenerative cities, sustainable cities, doughnut cities, earth system boundaries, urban planetary boundaries, circular cities
• comment
  • if they are envisioning a lot of cities, they need to carefully think about earth system boundaries for each city, otherwise, they will simply be adding to the problem of cascading tipping points.
  • They also have to be designed to be climate resilient as extreme weather will make any human settlement of the future very challenging

• for: safe and just boundaries, earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries
• title
  • Safe and just Earth system boundaries

• for: downscaled planetary boundaries, bend the curve, allocate responsibilities, fair share, science-based targets
• key insight
  • downscaling to city scale and to business actdors
  • based on Science based targets

• for: earth system boundaries, safe and just boundaries, planetary boundaries, doughnut economics, bend the curve
• title Earth System Boundaries for a Just World on a Safe Planet
• source
  • Future Earth, Earth Commission
• date
  • June 2023

• for: safe and just boundaries, earth system justice, planetary boundaries

• for: downscaled planetary boundaries, earth system boundaries, bend the curve

• for: planetary boundaries, tipping points, planetary tipping points

• Title
  • Downscaling the planetary boundaries in absolute environmental sustainability assessments – A review
• Authors
  • Morten W. Ryberg
  • Martin Marchman Andersen
  • Mikotaj Owsianiak
  • Michael Z. Hauschild
• Date
  • Dec 2020
• Source
  • https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652620333321
• Abstract
  • Excerpt
    • To ensure choices concerning sharing principles in absolute environmental sustainability assessments (AESA) are deliberate,
      • there is a need for understanding the distributive justice theory underlying the sharing principles. -This study provides a framework for determining and communicating the distributive justice theories that underlie the choice of sharing principles in AESA

Title: Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

Abstract - Paraphrase - there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, - potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions need to accounted for. - “nexus” research is consistent with the above - it recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, - and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. - This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon: - how much is known about the system in question - and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. - The framework comprises four categories: - Knowable and Avoidable - Knowable and Unavoidable - Unknowable and Avoidable - Unknowable and Unavoidable - The categories are explored with reference to examples in both: - the water-energy-food nexus and - planetary boundary frameworks. - The examples: - highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and - explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. - The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used - to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward - secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, - avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

// - This paper is principally about - progress traps, - how they emerge, - their characteristics - as they morph through the knowability / avoidability matrix - and how we might predict and mitigate them in the future

• Title: Consumption Corridors: Living a Good Life within Sustainable Limits
• This book explores how to enhance peoples’ chances to live a good life in a world of ecological and social limits.

// - A key shift is required to mobilize people at scale - This strategy is already being adopted by change agents around the globe but the change in perspective needs to become greater - Living within doughnut economics reaches the same conclusion: https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=a+good+life+for+all - and currently, as the "Good Life for All" study showed at a national (country) scale, very few if any countries are meeting this requirement - the great inequality implies that the poor must be uplifted materially, whilst the rich must be encouraged to share material and economic wealth - the poor of the world will receive material and economic gain while the economic elites of the world gain nonmaterial wealth

// - Orienting towards the good life is needed to mobilize action. - Why? - Because shifting from a negative vision to a positive one is necessary to mobilize action (at scale) - It is the difference between: - being coerced vs being self-motivated - being reactive vs being proactive - being depressed and lethargic vs being joyful and energetic - hence, in this transition journey, we must accompany the limits with the positive transformation that allows us to achieve wellbeing within them.

• Consumption corridors are proposed as the way to live what we all consider a good life, within planetary boundaries.
• Citizen engagement and deliberative democracy are key to co-creating a system that works for us all

• Question
• Will they develop within planetary boundaries?

• Earth Commission has develop principles for sharing responsibilities for cities and companies.
• Comment
  • This is implicitly a form of downscaling

• Comment
• In fact, Johan Rockstrom, one of the principal founders of the concept of planetary boundaries is currently working with the Earth Commission to effectively downscale fair share planetary boundaries to cities.
• reference: https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=SBT+for+cities

• Paraphrase
• The aim of the study is to:
  • reveal the obstacles that still prevent the application of = downscaled planetary boundaries and = downscaled doughnut economics at wide scale in the real world and in so doing
  • help identify ways to overcome the obstacles

No mention of Hachaichi's work

• Mohammed Hachaichi References https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=hachaichi

• Paraphrase
• Few cities currently have science-based targets (SBT)
• Only 22 of 500 top greenhouse gas emitting companies set targets in line with SBT (Bloomberg Terminal)
• Only 110 of the top 200 cities with the highest emissions had "net zero" pledges aligned with Paris Agreement.
• Numbers are lower or missing for biodversity or other ESBs.
• Comment
• Setting such SBTs for cities is in effect downscaling Planetary Boundaries.

• Title

  • How to stop cities and companies causing planetary harm

• Author

  • Xuemei Bai,
  • Anders Bjørn,
  • Şiir Kılkış,
  • Oscar Sabag Muñoz,
  • Gail Whiteman,
  • Holger Hoff,
  • Lauren Seaby Andersen,
  • Johan Rockström

Next year, the Earth Commission, including many of the scientists on this report, will issue a report outlinging the Earth System Boundaries (ESB) to hlep cities and corporations stay within planetary boundaries.

• Key Finding
  • This paper uses machine learning to overcome unavailable carbon footprints inventories of the Global South
  • which are usually hampered by:
    • lack of local urban emissions data,
    • reduced climate footprint, and
    • shortages in climate finance.

• using these algorithms, the author estimates 24,110 cities' carbon footprints of the Global South

  • to provide a comprehensive analysis on a planetary scale,
  • while allocating responsibilities according to the cities' regions and sizes.

• author

  • Mohammed Hachaichi

• Highlights
  • Downscaling seven of nine = planetary boundaries indicators
    • to the city scale-level
    • for 62 major cities in the = Middle East North Africa (MENA) region
  • Extended-Environmental Input-Output analysis is used to estimate cities’ footprints.
  • The Planetary Boundaries framework is a controlling tool for cities footprints.
  • City-level carbon footprint is higher than the national-level by 17%.

• Title
  • Downscaling the planetary boundaries (Pbs) framework to city scale-level: De-risking MENA region’s environment future
• Author
  • Mohamed Hachaichi

= example - gamifying system change in one area - grocery shopping - 18.9 kg was the hard limit - shoppers must keep their purchases under 18.9 kg per week to do their fair share to stay within planetary boundaries, in terms of grocery shopping

!- planetary boundaries : synchronization

!- downscaling : planetary boundaries and doughnut economics - neither has the traction as SDGs

!- limitations : planetary boundary framework - planetary boundary framework is insufficient to describe a safe corridor

!- key question : what are the challenges of translating global scale targets into concrete and actionable targets for local actors? - in other words, how do we downscale global indicators such as planetary boundaries?

All three variables - population growth, consumption and waste must be minimized simultaneously in order to bend the curve back to a safe operating safe for humanity

Her diagram explicitly shows a synthesis of planetary boundaries and circular economy. This is a connection that many in this area are tacitly aware of but is good to explicate it in a diagram of this sort..

If circular economy is about ultimate reuse and recirculating material flows to eliminate the concept of waste, then how does energy consumption fit into the picture? Obviously, CO2 emissions is a form of material waste that is an undesirable byproduct of carbon-based energy usage. Capturing CO2 and reusing it is one method, but not a very scalable solution presently.

These are umbrella categories that can allow for the classification of vast numbers of existing transition projects. With the use of disaggregated planetary boundaries, doughnut economics framework, Inner and Outer transformation, and Bend-the-Curve gamification, the impacts of each type of operation can be measured.

Hier kann man dann eine Verbindung zu dem framework der planetaren Grenzen sehen. Es handelt sich hier um Prozesse wie den Stickstoffzyklus, die persistent sind und das Überleben der verschiedenen Entitäten fördern, die in sie eingebettet sind oder die zu Ihnen beitragen.

Include this in a comparative analysis of other methodologies such as Hoornweg, Hachaichi, R3.0 Thresholds and Allocations, etc.

Mobility can be used strategically. It cannot simply be accessible by the elites but it must all be done within planetary boundaries.

New stories and narratives, in other words, new social imaginaries of viable low carbon life styles can help bring about a shift. By adopting the viable story, it primes individuals to seek technology elements that are designed to fit that new social imaginary.

As mentioned above, community economists Michael Shuman demonstrates how relocalizing can create new patterns of behavior consistent with a desirable future.

The Swiss 2000 Watt society is another example of such a new social imaginary https://www.2000-watt-society.org/what as is Doughnut Economics https://doughnuteconomics.org/

We must engage film-makers, artists, playwrights to create stories of such alternative futures of living within planetary boundaries, doughnut economics and eco-civilizations.

Constructing social imaginaries that are alternatives to the petrocutultural, carbonscape ones is critical to shift the mindset.

Carbon pollution cannot be disentangled from colonialism and social imaginaries must consist of stories that tell alternative futures narratives that address both simultaneously.

Replace petroculture with ecoculture, doughnut economics, living within planetary boundaries and eco-civilization

In the doughnut model these boundaries replace the sustainable development goals, but they don’t fit with the doghnut metapher. There is also a relationship to the bonds/ligatures mentiones by Dahrendorf.

See maybe already Canguilhem's understanding of the normative character of the notion of biological normality.

The metapher of the globe is criticized in a way reminding Bruno Latour.