- Sep 2024
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for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al
paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540
Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.
question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present
from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world
to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate
Tags
- from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0
- Camilo Mora
- to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013
- climate departure
- to - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Annotators
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www.thelancet.com www.thelancet.com
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The remainder of this Commission is organised into four parts
for - safe and just earth system boundaries - translations and transformations - 4 parts
earth system boundaries - translations and transformations - 4 parts - part 1 - theoretical framework - part 2 - quantification of - safe and just ESB, - which ones are transgressed - who are the victims - safe and just corridor - base - ceiling - for timeframe - present - 2050 - part 3 - translating - safe and just ESB - approaches - challenges - enabling conditions - to - cities - businesses
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Although Doughnut Economics' safe and just indicators2525.O'Neill, DW ∙ Fanning, AL ∙ Lamb, WF ∙ et al.A good life for all within planetary boundariesNat Sustain. 2018; 1:88-95CrossrefScopus (980)Google Scholar include justice elements, our work goes further by quantifying these elements in the same units as the safe ESBs and by operationalising and quantifying justice issues.
for - comparison - doughnut economics - vs - safe and just earth system boundaries
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for - earth system boundaries - safe and just earth system boundaries - cross translated - to cities and business - planetary boundaries - downscaled planetary boundaries - urban planetary boundaries - Johan Rockstrom - Xuemei Bao - Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - Earth Commission report
paper details - title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations - authors: - Joyeeta Gupta - Xuemei Bao - Johan Rockstrom - Diana M Liverman <br /> - Dahe Qin - Ben Stewart-Koster - et al - publication: Lancet 2024, Sept 11
summary
Tags
- downscaled planetary boundaries
- earth system boundaries - cross-scale translation - to cities and businesses
- safe and just earth system boundaries - translations and transformations - 4 parts
- urban planetary boundaries
- comparison - doughnut economics - vs - safe and just earth system boundaries
- cross scale translated earth system boundaries
- Xuemei Bao
- Johan Rockstrom
- earth system boundaries - downscaled to cities
- Earth Commission Report 2024
- Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - 2024
Annotators
URL
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- Nov 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for:social tipping points - within safe and just earth system boundaries
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- Sep 2023
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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- for: urban development, inequality, just boundaries, safe and just boundaries, climate justice, urban planetary boundaries, livable cities, earth system boundaries, earth system justice
- title: Urban inequalities in the 21st century economy
- author: Jan niman, Yehua Dennis Wei
- date: Apr 2, 2020
- source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124478/
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www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
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- for: green city, living city, environmental justice, safe and just transition, safe and just boundaries earth system boundaries, just transition, climate justice, cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries
- title: Environmental justice in a very green city: Spatial inequality in exposure to urban nature, air pollution and heat in Oslo, Norway
- author: Zander S. Venter, Helene Figari, Olve Krange, Vegard Gundersen
- date: Feb. 2023
- source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972207293X#f0005
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- Aug 2023
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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- for: safe and just boundaries, earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries
- title
- Safe and just Earth system boundaries
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: earth system boundaries, safe and just boundaries, planetary boundaries, doughnut economics, bend the curve
- title Earth System Boundaries for a Just World on a Safe Planet
- source
- Future Earth, Earth Commission
- date
- June 2023
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- Jul 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: safe and just boundaries, earth system justice, planetary boundaries
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this is now quantifying this this safe space but for the first time also doing it for justice so measuring the maximum allowed 00:15:33 of significant harm to people and the key take home here is the following in the outer ring here the red and green you see the safe boundary definitions 00:15:45 the blue lines are the assessment of justice so not surprisingly if we care about people the safe bound is about the stability of the planet but if we care about avoiding significant harm to hundreds of millions of people across 00:15:58 the world the climate boundary shrinks from 1.5 down to one degree
- for: earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries, safe and just boundaries, earth system justice, just boundaries
- key finding
- if we include justice in the planetary boundaries, then the 1.5 Deg C target becomes 1.0 Deg C.
- In other words, we have already breached the safe and just boundary!
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- Mar 2023
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Within the Earth Commission, we aim to propose ‘safe and just Earth system boundaries’ (ESBs) that go beyond planetary boundaries as they also include a justice perspective and suggest transformations to achieve them3.
- The = Earth Commission,
- proposes ‘safe and just Earth system boundaries’ (ESBs)
- that go beyond planetary boundaries as
- they also include a justice perspective
- suggest transformations to achieve them.
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Safe and just ESBs aim to:
- stabilize the Earth system,
- protect species and ecosystems,
- avoid tipping points,
- minimize ‘significant harm’ to people while ensuring access to resources for a dignified life and escape from poverty.
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If justice is not considered,
- the biophysical limits may not be adequate
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to protect current generations from significant harm
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Comment
- Similar to aims of doughnut economics
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joint knowledge to identify safe and just ESBs
- collaboration between natural and social scientists that uses joint knowledge to identify safe and just ESBs for:
- blue water,
- climate change,
- biodiversity,
- nutrients (nitrogen and phosporus),
- air pollution
- collaboration between natural and social scientists that uses joint knowledge to identify safe and just ESBs for:
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- Jan 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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there are amazing people worldwide that are working to protect the local to Global Commons the next step is to involve businesses 00:11:44 countries cities and people worldwide to accept Earth system boundaries and the just Transformations we need to live within these boundaries
!- required transformation : global movement to accept and live writing these boundaries
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can we quantify safe and just Earth 00:04:20 system boundaries or an earth system corridor in 2019 the Global Commons Alliance created the Earth commission to answer this question
!- key question : can we quantify a safe and just corridor?
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we're taking colossal risks with the future of civilization on Earth We're degrading life support system that we all depend on we're actually pushing 00:00:57 the entire Earth system to a point of destabilization pushing Earth outside of the state that has support civilization since we left the last ice age 10 000 years ago this requires a transformation to safe 00:01:11 and just Earth system boundaries for the whole world economy
!- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.
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- Dec 2022
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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Identifying safe ranges for these systems in isolation, for example as the planetary boundary framework has done (Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen, Richardson, et al., 2015), will not be enough to describe a safe corridor.
!- limitations : planetary boundary framework - planetary boundary framework is insufficient to describe a safe corridor
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