30 Matching Annotations
  1. Feb 2024
    1. Die Daten des europäischen Klimaservice Copernicus ergeben, dass die Temperaturen erstmals über 12 Monate mehr als 1,5° über dem vorindustriellen Durchschnitt lagen. Jeder Monat seit dem vergangenen Juni war im globalen Durchschnitt der wärmste Monat seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Johan Rockström, der Direktor des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgen-Forschung, sprach von einer Warnung für die Menschheit, dass wir uns schneller als erwartet auf die 1,5° Grenze zubewegen. https://taz.de/EU-Klimadienst-Copernicus/!5991185/

      Copernicus-Meldung: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2024

  2. Jan 2024
    1. we need to make the transition acceptable and attractive for the vast majority of citizens, and the only way to do that, is to make the changes easy to adopt. This requires strong engagement with society at large, and policies that make sustainable life choices not only easier, but also cheaper and more attractive. Or, put it the other way around, it must be more expensive to destroy the planet or the health of our fellow citizens".
      • for: meme - make it expensive to destroy the planet, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - make it expensive to destroy the planet, key insight - make it expensive to destroy the planet

      • key insight

      • meme
      • quote: Johan Rockstrom
        • we need to make the transition acceptable and attractive for the vast majority of citizens, and the only way to do that, is to make the changes easy to adopt. This requires strong engagement with society at large, and policies that make sustainable life choices not only easier, but also cheaper and more attractive. Or, put it the other way around, it must be more expensive to destroy the planet or the health of our fellow citizens".
    2. We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
      • for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points

      • quote: Johan Rockstrom

        • We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
    3. now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
      • for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - uncertainty at 1.5 Deg C for years

      • quote: Johan Rockstrom

        • now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
    4. the focus of every Cop should not be at the whim of the Presidency - every Cop should focus on all areas where emissions reductions are needed. A system of smaller results-based meetings that focus on delivery, accountability, alignment with science, and safeguarding social justice is needed".
      • for: COP - suggestion for improvement

      • suggestion for improvement: COP

        • "the focus of every Cop should not be at the whim of the Presidency
          • every Cop should focus on all areas where emissions reductions are needed.
        • A system of smaller results-based meetings that focus on delivery, accountability, alignment with science, and safeguarding social justice is needed".
    5. All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement, which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
      • for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out

      • quote: Johan Rockstrom

        • All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement,
          • which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
      • Date: Dec 31, 2023
    6. Im Interview der Repubblica (hier auf Englisch) fordert Johan Rockström eine Konkretisierung der Ergebnisse der COP28 und eine Reform der UN-Klimakonferenzen. Er hebt die Ergebnisse des Global Tipping Points Report hervor und weist darauf hin, dass wir die Konsequenzen der kaum noch zu Überschreitung des 1,5°-Ziels über mehrere Jahrzehnte nicht kennen.

      https://www.greenandblue.it/2023/12/31/news/johan_rockstrom_earth4all_scenarios-421790005/

  3. Dec 2023
  4. Nov 2023
  5. Oct 2023
    1. Durch die Überschreitung von 6 der 9 planetaren Grenzen wurde der „safe operating space for humanity“ verlassen. Die neue Studie analysiert auf Basis von 2000 Studien erstmals die Situation bei allen planetaren Grenzen. Als besonders bedrohlich schätzen die Forschenden ein, dass 4 direkt auf das Leben bezogene Grenzen überschritten wurden. Die dadurch mangelnde Resilienz könnte es auch unabhängig von Emissions-Senkungen unmöglich machen, das 1,5°-Ziel zu erreichen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-find

  6. Sep 2023
      • for: Johan Rockstrom - Time magazine
      • Title: What the latest health check tells us about the state of our planet
      • date: Sept., 2023
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • summary
        • Johan Rockstrom provides an update to clarify what our civilization must do and how rapidly in order retain a safe and just operating space for humanity
    1. It is a major mistake in the current climate action debates, when big actors with interests in the oil, gas, and coal industry, use investments in nature based solutions or technologies for carbon dioxide removal (CDR), as “offsets” for the inability to phase out fossil-fuels. This will not work. Science is clear on this point – we need to phase out fossil-fuels AND restore nature to secure carbon sinks in soils and forests, AND to invest in CDR technologies. Additionality is the word of the day, not substitution.
      • for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - Industry greenwashing

      • quote

        • It is a major mistake in the current climate action debates,
          • when big actors with interests in the oil, gas, and coal industry,
        • use investments in
        • nature based solutions or
        • technologies for carbon dioxide removal (CDR),
        • as “offsets” for the inability to phase out fossil-fuels.
        • This will not work. Science is clear on this point
        • We need to
        • phase out fossil-fuels AND
          • restore nature to secure carbon sinks in soils and forests, AND
          • to invest in CDR technologies.
        • Additionality is the word of the day, not substitution.
    2. We cannot continue with double standards on fossil-fuels and renewable energy, or as a majority of countries are doing today – continue to sit on the fence, with green rhetoric but grey actions, which adds to the perception of widespread greenwashing.
      • for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote greenwashing

      • quote

        • We cannot continue with double standards on fossil-fuels and renewable energy,
        • or as a majority of countries are doing today –
          • continue to sit on the fence, with green rhetoric but grey actions,
        • which adds to the perception of widespread greenwashing.
    1. Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position. And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions 00:34:42 I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work. Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan. And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,. Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess, when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'
      • for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing

      • quote

        • Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position.
        • And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions
        • I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work.
        • Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan.
        • And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,.
        • Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess,
          • when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'
      • comment

        • In rebuttal to Johan's perspective on Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs),
          • Kevin is addressing the issue of perspectival knowing, and
          • its implications on what solutions we entertain as a global society.
        • The example he cites is Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) illustrates two major perspectives:
          • Johan includes NETs as he see's that without them, the transition goes from manageable to unmanageable
          • Kevin questions the inclusion of the NETs as potentially shutting down discussion about what Johan would consider an unmanageable situation
        • Kevin brings up a valid point for inclusion of other voices, especially those indigenous ones who are still institutionally marginalized not only in economic and cultural spaces, but also academic and intellectual ones.
        • The decolonization of academia takes on a concrete form here. Both the global and local south have lived under severe economic repression for centuries. Anderson's contention is that making do with less is something that billions of people have had to contend with for centuries as a social norm forced upon them by colonialist then post colonialist institutions.
        • Inclusivity of a greater diversity of voices does play an important role in shaping the future direction of humanity.
        • We should be having an open discussion about a Marshall plan and should not be afraid to go there.
          • We had it in WWII, which, while more direct threat, is not as great as the threat of climate change on all life on earth in a slightly greater time scale.
        • The global and local south has a lot to teach the global and local north. For this great transition of humanity to occur likely simultaneously requires
          • radical amounts of resource transfer from the global / local north to the global / local south,and
          • radical degrowth
    2. we're increasing emissions today between 1 and 2% per year. Now, to reduce emissions even in the global model runs we have, with optimistic I mean, overly optimistic negative emission technologies – assume mitigation pathways, as you know, between 5 and 7% per year. So that is three times revolution pace, at the current modeling runs. 00:33:47 If you take away negative emission technologies, you would exceed 10% very rapidly. You would be more the 10 to 15%. I would call that... That's not revolution, that is a complete disruption of the global economy. It's like a pace that is beyond... I mean then you need to bulldoze down coal-fired plants, basically. You would be in a complete global Marshall Plan. It's a war zone agenda.
      • for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - NET

      • stats

      • quote
        • We're increasing emissions today between 1 and 2% per year.
        • Now, to reduce emissions even in the global model runs we have, with optimistic I mean, overly optimistic negative emission technologies – assume mitigation pathways, as you know, between 5 and 7% per year.
        • So that is three times revolution pace, at the current modeling runs.
        • If you take away negative emission technologies, you would exceed 10% very rapidly.
        • You would be more the 10 to 15%.
        • I would call that... That's not revolution, that is a complete disruption of the global economy.
        • It's like a pace that is beyond... I mean then you need to bulldoze down coal-fired plants, basically.
        • You would be in a complete global Marshall Plan. It's a war zone agenda.
    3. in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
      • quote
        • In a normal distribution,
          • from over here you have the denialists and
          • over here you have the environmental activists.
        • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
        • And the majority are actually
          • we know this from opinion polls
        • very supportive of science.
        • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
        • They want climate action.
        • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
          • children,
          • health,
          • school,
          • financing,
          • incomes.
        • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
        • But that's the question:
          • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
        • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
          • scare them and
          • fight with the denialists.
        • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • date: Sept., 2023

      • comment

        • in other words
        • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action
    4. better health, better security, better economy, secure job, better... Simply a more modern, attractive life.
      • for: Johan Rockstrom - wellbeing economy, wellbeing economy, green growth, degrowth, question, question - Johan Rockstrom - green growth or degrowth?
      • question
        • Does Johan Rockstrom advocate for a green economy or degrowth?
        • He would seem to be arguing for green growth as degrowth, if not done extremely carefully, can result in a drop in wellbeing.
        • How does he see this taking place when the elites perceive that they have the most (at least materially) to give up? Is there a contradiction here?
    5. I think we need to do much more of that. I totally agree with you. I actually think that we – and that's self-critical to me as well – I think we need to be more brave also going public with that engagement.
      • for: climate science - citizen engagement, johan rockstrom - advocacy for citizen engagement, scientist - activism
      • comment
        • supporting the previous comment, Johan Rockstrom see's scientists having a much more active role engaging with the public.
    6. we have a crisis 00:49:16 And things have to change at the global level so fast that we need to correct big system failures at a very large scale. And I'm convinced that that can only be done top-down not bottom-up.
      • for: Johan Rockstrom - top down strategy, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - climate top down strategy

      • quote

        • we have a crisis and things have to change at the global level so fast that we need to correct big system failures at a very large scale. And I'm convinced that that can only be done top-down not bottom-up.
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • date: Sept., 2023
    7. reaching zero by 2050 won't take us there
      • for: quote, quote - net zero by 2050
      • quote
        • reaching zero by 2050 won't take us there
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • date: Sept. 2023
  7. Aug 2023
  8. Jun 2023
    1. Die Earth Commission hat ein neues Konzept für Indikatoren der globalen Gesundheit entwickelt, dass sowohl die planetaren Belastungsgrenzen wie nachhaltige Entwicklung berücksichtigt. Bei sieben von acht dieser Indikatoren stellt die Kommission fest, dass die Grenze zu einer Krisensituation überschritten ist. Die Kommission wurde von führenden Forschungsinstituten zum Erdsystem und der Ökologie des Planeten gebildet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-health-failing-in-seven-out-of-eight-key-measures-say-scientists-earth-commission

  9. Mar 2023
      • Title

        • How to stop cities and companies causing planetary harm
      • Author

        • Xuemei Bai,
        • Anders Bjørn,
        • Şiir Kılkış,
        • Oscar Sabag Muñoz,
        • Gail Whiteman,
        • Holger Hoff,
        • Lauren Seaby Andersen,
        • Johan Rockström

      Next year, the Earth Commission, including many of the scientists on this report, will issue a report outlinging the Earth System Boundaries (ESB) to hlep cities and corporations stay within planetary boundaries.

  10. Jan 2023
    1. we're taking colossal risks with the future of civilization on Earth We're degrading life support system that we all depend on we're actually pushing 00:00:57 the entire Earth system to a point of destabilization pushing Earth outside of the state that has support civilization since we left the last ice age 10 000 years ago this requires a transformation to safe 00:01:11 and just Earth system boundaries for the whole world economy

      !- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.

  11. Sep 2022
    1. “Exactly at the moment when we need a resilient biosphere, we are losing it. If we get too far from planetary boundaries, feedbacks from Earth will start to amplify our trajectory irreversibly toward a four-, five- or six-degree world.” Long pause.

      !- for : Tipping Point Festival inspiration

  12. Jul 2022
    1. In the deep past these setbacks were local. The overall experiment of civilization kept going, often by moving from an exhausted ecology to one with untapped potential. Human numbers were still quite small. At the height of the Roman Empire there are thought to have been only 200 million people on Earth. Compare that with the height of the British Empire a century ago, when there were two billion. And with today, when there are nearly eight. Clearly, things have moved very quickly since the Industrial Revolution took hold around the world. In A Short History of Progress, I suggested that worldwide civilization was our greatest experiment; and I asked whether this might also prove to be the greatest progress trap. That was 15 years ago.

      Indeed, Wright is right to ask: Is our modern human civilization the greatest progress trap of all?

      Exponential technological progress has shortened the time for dangerous levels of resource extraction and pollution loads to the extent that we face the potential of cascading global tipping points and enter a "hothouse earth" state: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

      Were this to happen, there is no place on earth that would be immune.

      In hindsight, the unfortunate but predictable trend is one of every increasing size of progress traps, and ever shorter time windows when serious impacts occur. Today, it appears we have reached the largest size progress trap possible on a finite planet.