for - Donald Trump re-election - existential risk - planetary tipping points - earth system boundaries - study - Impact 2024 - Cascade Institute - polycrisis - Trump reelection - increase risk

for - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - Camilo Mora et al. - 6th mass extinction - biodiversity loss - question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - to - climate departure map - map of major cities - 2013 - to - researchgate paper - The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - 2013 - Camilo Mora et al

paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

to - https://hyp.is/0BdCglsHEe-2CteEQbOBfw/www.researchgate.net/publication/257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability

Summary - This is an extremely important paper with a startling conclusion of the magnitude of the social and economic impacts of the biodiversity disruption coming down the pipeline - It is likely that very few governments are prepared to adapt to these levels of ecosystemic disruption - Climate departure is defined as an index of the year when: - The projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state that is - continuously outside the bounds of historical variability - Climate departure is projected to happen regardless of how aggressive our climate mitigation pathway - The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the study is RCP85 and leads to a global climate departure mean of 2047 (+/- 14 years s.d.) while - The more aggressive RCP45 scenario (which we are currently far from) leads to a global climate departure mean of 2069 (+/- 18 years s.d.) - So regardless of how aggressive we mitigate, we cannot avoid climate departure. - What consequences will this have on economies around the world? How will we adapt? - The world is not prepared for the vast ecosystem changes, which will reshape our entire economy all around the globe.

question - 2024 - Sept 13 - how do we reconcile climate departure with quantification of earth system boundary biodiversity safe and just limit? - Annotating the Sept 11, 2024 published Earth Commission paper in Lancet, the question arises: - How do we reconcile climate departure dates with the earth system boundary quantification of safe limits for biodiversity? - There, it is claimed that: - 50 to 60 % of intact nature is required<br /> - https://hyp.is/Mt8ocnIEEe-C0dNSJFTjyQ/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - a minimum of 20 to 25% of human modified ecosystems is required - https://hyp.is/AKwa4nIHEe-U1oNQDdFqlA/www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext - in order to mitigate major species extinction and social disruption crisis - And yet, Mora et al.'s research and subsequent climate departure map shows climate departure is likely to take place everywhere on the globe, with - aggressive RCP decarbonization pathway only delaying climate departure from - Business-As-Usual RCP pathway - by a few decades at most - And this was a 2011 result. 13 years later in 2024, I expect climate departure dates have likely gotten worse and moved closer to the present

from - Gupta, Joyeeta et al.(2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0 - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelancet.com%2Fjournals%2Flanplh%2Farticle%2FPIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1%2Ffulltext&group=world

to - climate departure map - of major cities of the world - 2013 - https://hyp.is/tV1UOFsKEe-HFQ-jL-6-cw/www.hawaii.edu/news/2013/10/09/study-in-nature-reveals-urgent-new-time-frame-for-climate-change/ - full research paper - researchgate

for - question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure?

question - earth system boundaries - biodiversity - how do we reconcile these boundaries with climate departure? - Does the term "functional integrity" imply autonomy from climate feedbacks? Obviously, climate feedback plays a huge role in determining biodiversity health - In 2013, Mora et al. found that climate departure, the year in which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds will occur everywhere on the planet, regardless of an aggressive RCP pathway being taken. In this study, climate departure was found to take place (relative to 2013) - 37.5 years in the future under RCP45, or - 22.5 years in the future under RCP85 - It would seem that the biodiversity boundaries should take into consideration climate departure as species extinction and ecological system disruption is projected to occur, regardless of whether RCP45 or RCP85 is adopted. - Currently, we are still on a Business-As-Usual trajectory, but since 2013, scientific research has moved the danger threshold even lower so climate departure dates are likely even sooner than those calculated in the 2013 Mora paper

to - Mora, C., Frazier, A., Longman, R. et al. (2013). The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://hyp.is/3wZrokX9Ee-XrSvMGWEN2g/www.nature.com/articles/nature12540 - Researchgate copy - https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F257598710_The_projected_timing_of_climate_departure_from_recent_variability&group=world

for - biodiversity - safe earth system boundaries - 2 measures - intact natural ecosystems - ecosystems modified by human pressures - question - quantification of biodiversity tipping points at various scales

question - quantification of biodiversity tipping points at various scales - As ecologist David Suzuki often says, economy depends on ecology, not the other way around - Is there quantification at different potential tipping points for extinction for biodiversity at different scales and localities?

for - safe and just earth system boundaries - translations and transformations - 4 parts

earth system boundaries - translations and transformations - 4 parts - part 1 - theoretical framework - part 2 - quantification of - safe and just ESB, - which ones are transgressed - who are the victims - safe and just corridor - base - ceiling - for timeframe - present - 2050 - part 3 - translating - safe and just ESB - approaches - challenges - enabling conditions - to - cities - businesses

for - Earth system boundaries - importance of developing cross scale translation for cities and businesses as key actors

for - comparison - doughnut economics - vs - safe and just earth system boundaries

for - earth system boundaries - safe and just earth system boundaries - cross translated - to cities and business - planetary boundaries - downscaled planetary boundaries - urban planetary boundaries - Johan Rockstrom - Xuemei Bao - Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - Earth Commission report

paper details - title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations - authors: - Joyeeta Gupta - Xuemei Bao - Johan Rockstrom - Diana M Liverman <br /> - Dahe Qin - Ben Stewart-Koster - et al - publication: Lancet 2024, Sept 11

summary

for - Cities 1.5 podcast - guests - Xuemei Bai - earth system boundaries downscaled to cities - cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries

for - urban planetary boundaries - barriers to transition - downscaled planetary boundaries - barriers to transition - cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries - barriers to transition - question - retrofitting cities to stay within the doughnut - what are the challenges?

• for: downscaled earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, TPF

• for: recommendation - replace SDG with downscaled earth system boundaries / doughnut economics

• recommendation

  • recommend syncing local actions to global impacts via downscaled earth system boundaries instead of just SDGs due to the urgent nature of the climate crisis

• for: question - topics - downscaled earth system boundaries and micro-economies

• question

  • what kinds of questions need to be asked in order to align the communitiy's work to stay within downscaled earth system boundaries?

• for: good match - SONEC - TPF, good match - SONEC - downscaled earth system boundaries, good match - SONEC - doughnut economics

• for: question - SONEC alignment to earth system boundaries

• question

  • Stop Reset Go's objective is to find global community partners who can help motivate a local community strategy aligned with the tight timeframe to stay under 1.5 Deg C.
  • Is SONEC open to working on a strategic to empower communities in this way?
  • We can offer it as an optional framework that the community can integrate into their final framework

• for: earth system boundaries - downscaled to cities, earth system boundaries for cities, Xuemei Bai - downscaled earth system boundaries

• comment

  • this paper is currently in review but provides earth system boundaries for cities

• for: annotate, urban planning, downscaled planetary boundaries, downscale earth system boundaries

• for:social tipping points - within safe and just earth system boundaries

• for: urban development, inequality, just boundaries, safe and just boundaries, climate justice, urban planetary boundaries, livable cities, earth system boundaries, earth system justice
• title: Urban inequalities in the 21st century economy
• author: Jan niman, Yehua Dennis Wei
• date: Apr 2, 2020
• source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124478/

• for: green city, living city, environmental justice, safe and just transition, safe and just boundaries earth system boundaries, just transition, climate justice, cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries
• title: Environmental justice in a very green city: Spatial inequality in exposure to urban nature, air pollution and heat in Oslo, Norway
• author: Zander S. Venter, Helene Figari, Olve Krange, Vegard Gundersen
• date: Feb. 2023
• source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972207293X#f0005

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point

• stats

  • 10000 to 1 million is optimum size
• question: investigate rationale

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point
• key finding
  • suitable cohorts and cohort ranges for rapidly deploying climate and sustainability actions between a single individual and the globally projected ∼ 10 billion persons by 2050 is:
  • community scale between 10k and 100k

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point
• title: Powers of 10: seeking 'sweet spots' for rapid climate and sustainability actions between individual and global scales

• for: smart cities, doughnut cities, cosmolocal, downscaled planetary boundaries, cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, TPF, community data, local data, open data, community data ownership, quote, quote - Garth Graham, quote - community owned data
• quote
• paraphrase
  • Innovation in the creation and sustainability of social institutions acts predominantly at the local level.
  • In the Internet of Things, for those capacities to emerge in smart cities, communities need the capacity to own and analyse the data created that models what they are experiencing.
  • Local data needs to be seen as a common, pool resource.
  • Where that occurs, communities will have the capacity to learn or innovate their way forward.
  • So far, smart city systems are being set up to appropriate and commercialize individual and community data.
  • So far, communities are not waking up to the realization that a capacity they need is being stolen from them before they have it.
• author: Garth Graham
  • leader of Telecommunities Canada

• for: Social Superorganism, SSO, reform vs transformation
• comment
  • John distinguishes between
    • reform and
    • transformation.
  • In the simplest terms,
    • reform deals with changes to an existing paradigm whilst
    • transformation deals with fundamental structural changes of an existing paradigm - a paradigm shift.
  • John views societal systems as
    • a social superorganism (SSO) and the major cognitive architectures as SSO systems such as
      • legal,
      • economic,
      • social,
      • governance,
      • education, etc
  • as cognitive architectures of the SSO. -The theoretical question being asked is:
    • There is an optimization problem. Of all possible variations, which one has the best fitness to the function of a society that operates within earth system boundaries?

• for: earth system boundaries, cosmolocal, local movement, transition town, circular cities, TPF
• comment
  • integrating science with local communities
  • this statement is key, to bring extra capacity to communities that are handicapped and don't have scientific, technological and engineering capacity -paraphrase
• This project is a collaboration between the global scientific community and local communities to improve societal systems. It's not a one-size-fits-all process, but many different experiments.
• TPF and SRG strategy is well aligned with Science-driven societal transformation ethos:
  • second order science combined with local communities as the building block of civilization
  • AND cosmolocal networking (https://clreader.net)
    • via Indyweb interpersonal computing.
    • https://opencollective.com/open-learning-commons/projects/indy-learning-commons

• for: regenerative cities, sustainable cities, doughnut cities, earth system boundaries, urban planetary boundaries, circular cities
• comment
  • if they are envisioning a lot of cities, they need to carefully think about earth system boundaries for each city, otherwise, they will simply be adding to the problem of cascading tipping points.
  • They also have to be designed to be climate resilient as extreme weather will make any human settlement of the future very challenging

• for: carbon inequality, decarbonizing luxury, decarbonizing luxury goods, carbon emissions - luxury goods, W2W, TPF,

• question

  • Given that the 1% have the same carbon emissions as the bottom half of humanity, does the sustainability impacts of the decarbonization efforts of the luxury industry measure up to stay under earth system boundaries in time?
• reference
  • carbon inequality
  • https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=carbon+inequality

• for: safe and just boundaries, earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries
• title
  • Safe and just Earth system boundaries

• for: earth system boundaries, safe and just boundaries, planetary boundaries, doughnut economics, bend the curve
• title Earth System Boundaries for a Just World on a Safe Planet
• source
  • Future Earth, Earth Commission
• date
  • June 2023

• for: safe and just boundaries, earth system justice, planetary boundaries

• for: downscaled planetary boundaries, earth system boundaries, bend the curve

• for: earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries, safe and just boundaries, earth system justice, just boundaries
• key finding
  • if we include justice in the planetary boundaries, then the 1.5 Deg C target becomes 1.0 Deg C.
  • In other words, we have already breached the safe and just boundary!

• for: planetary boundaries, tipping points, planetary tipping points

// - Orienting towards the good life is needed to mobilize action. - Why? - Because shifting from a negative vision to a positive one is necessary to mobilize action (at scale) - It is the difference between: - being coerced vs being self-motivated - being reactive vs being proactive - being depressed and lethargic vs being joyful and energetic - hence, in this transition journey, we must accompany the limits with the positive transformation that allows us to achieve wellbeing within them.

• Paraphrase
• Earth System Justice that makes up the "Just components of the Earth System Boundaries are characterized by the ‘3 Is of justice’:
  • interspecies justice promotes Earth system stability to prevent the collapse of conditions of life for all species.
  • intergenerational justice (between past and present, and present and future);
  • intragenerational justice (between countries, communities and individuals).
• These principles derive from the seminal work of Weiss on intergenerational and intragenerational equity,
• intergenerational justice can be broken down into:
  • intercommunity, justice,
  • interstate justice,
  • interindividual justice
  • intersectional justice

// ESJ is therefore characterized by INTERbeing

• The = Earth Commission,
• proposes ‘safe and just Earth system boundaries’ (ESBs)
• that go beyond planetary boundaries as
  • they also include a justice perspective
  • suggest transformations to achieve them.

• Safe and just ESBs aim to:

  • stabilize the Earth system,
  • protect species and ecosystems,
  • avoid tipping points,
  • minimize ‘significant harm’ to people while ensuring access to resources for a dignified life and escape from poverty.

• If justice is not considered,

• the biophysical limits may not be adequate

• to protect current generations from significant harm

• Comment

• Similar to aims of doughnut economics

• Earth Commission has develop principles for sharing responsibilities for cities and companies.
• Comment
  • This is implicitly a form of downscaling

• collaboration between natural and social scientists that uses joint knowledge to identify safe and just ESBs for:
  • blue water,
  • climate change,
  • biodiversity,
  • nutrients (nitrogen and phosporus),
  • air pollution

• The conclusion of this study is that the ultimate definition of justice is that all of us have a right to a stable planet.
• Earth System Boundaries are like doughnut economics and include social justice as well.
• Earth System Justice is a multi-dimensional definition of justice including:
  • justice among present nations, communities and individuals (Intragenerational Justice),
  • justice for future generations (Intergenerational justice),.
  • justice for other living things and Earth system stability (‘Interspecies Justice and Earth system stability’)

• Title

  • How to stop cities and companies causing planetary harm

• Author

  • Xuemei Bai,
  • Anders Bjørn,
  • Şiir Kılkış,
  • Oscar Sabag Muñoz,
  • Gail Whiteman,
  • Holger Hoff,
  • Lauren Seaby Andersen,
  • Johan Rockström

Next year, the Earth Commission, including many of the scientists on this report, will issue a report outlinging the Earth System Boundaries (ESB) to hlep cities and corporations stay within planetary boundaries.

!- required transformation : global movement to accept and live writing these boundaries

!- key question : can we quantify a safe and just corridor?

!- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.