2023 haben Böden und Landpflanzen fast kein CO2 absorbiert. Dieser Kollaps der Landsenken vor allem durch Dürren und Waldbrände wurde in diesem Ausmaß kaum vorausgesehen, und es ist nicht klar, ob auf ihn eine Regeneration folgt. Er stellt Klimamodelle ebenso in Frage wie die meisten nationalen Pläne zum Erreichen von CO2-Neutralität, weil sie auf natürlichen Senken an Land beruhen. Es gibt Anzeichen dafür, dass die steigenden Temperaturen inzwischen auch die CO2-Aufnahmefähigkeit der Meere schwächen. Überblicksartikel mit Links zu Studien https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe

Der Stress, dem die Wassersysteme der Welt ausgesetzt sind, wird dazu führen, dass das 2030 die Nachfrage nach Wasser 40% höher sein wird als das Angebot. Der Bericht der Globalen Komission für die Wasserökonomie stellt fest, dass ohne radikale Gegenmaßnahmen die Hälfte der Nahrungsproduktion der Welt in den kommenden 25 Jahren gefährdet ist. Trotz der Verbundenheit der globalen Wasserressourcen werde Wasser noch nicht als globales Gemeingut gemanagt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk

Bericht: https://economicsofwater.watercommission.org/

for - paper - Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

paper details - title: Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement - authors: Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Schott Janzwood, Johan Rockstrom, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan F. Donges - publication: Global Sustainability, 2024, January 17

summary - This paper provides a scientific definition of "polycrisis"

Der neue Planetary Health Check des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung ergibt, dass durch die Versauerung der Ozeane möglicherweise gerade die siebte von 9 planetaren Grenzen durchbrochen wird und die Biosphäre auch hier in eine Hochrisikozone eintritt. Bei allen anderen mit Ausnahme des Ozonschwunds haben sich die Bedingungen verschlechtert. Die CO2- Emissionen treiben die Versauerung an, die wiederum die Fähigkeit der Ozeane mindert, als CO2-Senke zu wirken. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/23/earth-breach-planetary-boundaries-health-check-oceans

Website zum Planetary Health Check: https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/

for - earth system boundaries - safe and just earth system boundaries - cross translated - to cities and business - planetary boundaries - downscaled planetary boundaries - urban planetary boundaries - Johan Rockstrom - Xuemei Bao - Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - Earth Commission report

paper details - title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations - authors: - Joyeeta Gupta - Xuemei Bao - Johan Rockstrom - Diana M Liverman <br /> - Dahe Qin - Ben Stewart-Koster - et al - publication: Lancet 2024, Sept 11

summary

Der neue Earth Report stellt fest, dass sich nur durch eine schnelle Reduzierung der Nachfrage der reichsten 15% der Weltbevölkerung gerechte und sichere Lebensbedingungen für die gesamte Menschheit im Jahr 2050 ermöglichen lassen. Der von einer Kommission prominenter Experten erstellte und von der Medizinzeitschrift Lancet publzierte Bericht beschäftigt sich mit bisher unterschätzten Folgen der Überschreitung der planeraren Grenzen. Gerechtigkeit z.B durch Besteuerung der Reichen sei eine entscheidende Voraussetzung der globalen Sicherheit https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/consumerism-and-the-climate-crisis-threaten-equitable-future-for-humanity-report-says

Earth Report: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext

https://singjupost.com/the-tipping-points-of-climate-change-and-where-we-stand-johan-rockstrom-transcript/?singlepage=1

for - social tipping points - quote - Johan Rockstrom

quote - social tipping points - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - We know from previous large transitions in history that - You never change the world by having everyone on board.. - You change the world by having large enough minorities<br /> - that can tip quite inert majority to move in the right direction. - When you look at the world of sustainability. - in many societies in the world, we are actually a double digit penetration - on sustainable solutions, - on people's awareness, - on willingness to even politically vote for green or, sustainable options. - So we're very close to that positive tipping point as well. - and that's another reason why it's not the moment to back down. - Now is the moment to just increase momentum.

for - quote - our generation caused the problem and must solve it - Johan Rockstrom

quote - Our generation caused the problem and must solve it - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - So, not only is it on our generation's watch that everything has occurred, - it's on our generation's watch that we will determine the future. - So it's in our hands to now determine the future for humanity on earth. So yes, it's intergenerational justice, fundamentally.

for - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - advice - top leverage point - talk to people about the emergency - quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - top advice - top leverage point - talk about it

quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - top advice - top leverage point - talk about it - (see below)

• The advice I give to all my students, they are, often I get the question, what should we do?
• And they expect me to talk about
  • mobility
  • how to reduce flying and
  • all forms of consumer choices.
• And they get surprised when I say that
  • the number one issue is talk to your friends.
• Talk to your friends. Get the dialogue going.
  • Speak to your, parents,
  • your friends anytime you have a chance.
  • Talk about the planet,
• Talk about 1. 5.
• If you go out to the street here in Potsdam, nobody will know what you're talking about if you say 1.5 is the most important number we have in the world today.
• So I think it's really important to keep the buzz going. We need a momentum here.

for - question - planetary emergency - ignorance or apathy - what should we do?

question - planetary emergency - ignorance or apathy - what should we do? - Johan Rockstrom advocates for three simultaneous internventions that must be executed in order to achieve the following impacts: - Legally binding global governance regimes must be implemented: immediately - Paris Agreement - biodiversity agreements - Internalize all externalities - Implement a global price on carbon emissions of at least 100 USD / ton - Stop all expansion of human activity into intact nature

for - quote - we are in the cockpit of planet earth - Johan Rockstrom

quote - we are in the cockpit of planet earth - Johan Rockstrom - (see below)

• We have to challenge the world to understand that we are in this generation, us, in charge today, sitting in the cockpit of planet earth,
  • putting the entire stability of the planet at risk in this generation

for - quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom

quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - Emergencies is when you have<br /> - unacceptable risks and - running out of time. - That's a combination: - Unacceptable risk and - time is running out. - Emergency means time is short. That's what is the definition of an emergency.

for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - 2024 - double frustration - allowing situation to deteriorate - while there is no sacrifice

for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - lack of keadership should concern us

for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - successful phase of of fossil fuels - is a necessary but not sufficient condition for station under 1.5 degree Celsius

for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - transition - is messy

for - interview - Johan Rockstrom - planetary boundaries

Die Daten des europäischen Klimaservice Copernicus ergeben, dass die Temperaturen erstmals über 12 Monate mehr als 1,5° über dem vorindustriellen Durchschnitt lagen. Jeder Monat seit dem vergangenen Juni war im globalen Durchschnitt der wärmste Monat seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Johan Rockström, der Direktor des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgen-Forschung, sprach von einer Warnung für die Menschheit, dass wir uns schneller als erwartet auf die 1,5° Grenze zubewegen. https://taz.de/EU-Klimadienst-Copernicus/!5991185/

Copernicus-Meldung: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2024

• for: meme - make it expensive to destroy the planet, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - make it expensive to destroy the planet, key insight - make it expensive to destroy the planet

• key insight

• meme
• quote: Johan Rockstrom
  • we need to make the transition acceptable and attractive for the vast majority of citizens, and the only way to do that, is to make the changes easy to adopt. This requires strong engagement with society at large, and policies that make sustainable life choices not only easier, but also cheaper and more attractive. Or, put it the other way around, it must be more expensive to destroy the planet or the health of our fellow citizens".

• for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.

• for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - uncertainty at 1.5 Deg C for years

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.

• for: COP - suggestion for improvement

• suggestion for improvement: COP

  • "the focus of every Cop should not be at the whim of the Presidency
    • every Cop should focus on all areas where emissions reductions are needed.
  • A system of smaller results-based meetings that focus on delivery, accountability, alignment with science, and safeguarding social justice is needed".

• for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement,
    • which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
• Date: Dec 31, 2023

Im Interview der Repubblica (hier auf Englisch) fordert Johan Rockström eine Konkretisierung der Ergebnisse der COP28 und eine Reform der UN-Klimakonferenzen. Er hebt die Ergebnisse des Global Tipping Points Report hervor und weist darauf hin, dass wir die Konsequenzen der kaum noch zu Überschreitung des 1,5°-Ziels über mehrere Jahrzehnte nicht kennen.

https://www.greenandblue.it/2023/12/31/news/johan_rockstrom_earth4all_scenarios-421790005/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/29/world-will-look-back-at-2023-as-year-humanity-exposed-its-inability-to-tackle-climate-crisis

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/climate/cop28-fossil-fuels.html

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/04/cop28-president-says-no-science-for-fossil-fuel-phase-out-claim-was-misinterpreted

• for: COP28 - Johan Rockstrom

Der Standardbericht zu dem neuen State of the climate-Report konzentriert sich auf die Forderung nach sofortigen Veränderungen in der Wirtschaft. Er enthält auch eine Übersicht zu den Temperaturanomalien in Österreich in diesem Jahr. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192443/hoechsttemperaturen-wie-2023-gab-es-womoeglich-erstmals-seit-100000-jahren

Mehr zum State of the climate 2023-Report: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%22report%3A%202023%20state%20of%20the%20climate%22;

Durch die Überschreitung von 6 der 9 planetaren Grenzen wurde der „safe operating space for humanity“ verlassen. Die neue Studie analysiert auf Basis von 2000 Studien erstmals die Situation bei allen planetaren Grenzen. Als besonders bedrohlich schätzen die Forschenden ein, dass 4 direkt auf das Leben bezogene Grenzen überschritten wurden. Die dadurch mangelnde Resilienz könnte es auch unabhängig von Emissions-Senkungen unmöglich machen, das 1,5°-Ziel zu erreichen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-find

6 von 9 planetaren Grenzen wurden bereits überschritten, wie eine neue gemeinsame Studie von Erdsystemwissenschaftler:innen zeigt. Es handelt sich um die Grenzen bei globaler Erwärmung, Biosdiversität, Entwaldung, Schadstoffe, Stickstoffkreislauf und Süßwasser. Die Studie stammt vor allem von Autori:innen, die das Konzept der planetaren Grenzen entwickelt hatten. https://taz.de/Studie-zur-Belastung-des-Planeten/!5960174/

Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

• for: Johan Rockstrom - Time magazine
• Title: What the latest health check tells us about the state of our planet
• date: Sept., 2023
• author: Johan Rockstrom
• summary
  • Johan Rockstrom provides an update to clarify what our civilization must do and how rapidly in order retain a safe and just operating space for humanity

• for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - Industry greenwashing

• quote

  • It is a major mistake in the current climate action debates,
    • when big actors with interests in the oil, gas, and coal industry,
  • use investments in
  • nature based solutions or
  • technologies for carbon dioxide removal (CDR),
  • as “offsets” for the inability to phase out fossil-fuels.
  • This will not work. Science is clear on this point
  • We need to
  • phase out fossil-fuels AND
    • restore nature to secure carbon sinks in soils and forests, AND
    • to invest in CDR technologies.
  • Additionality is the word of the day, not substitution.

• for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote greenwashing

• quote

  • We cannot continue with double standards on fossil-fuels and renewable energy,
  • or as a majority of countries are doing today –
    • continue to sit on the fence, with green rhetoric but grey actions,
  • which adds to the perception of widespread greenwashing.

• for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing

• quote

  • Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position.
  • And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions
  • I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work.
  • Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan.
  • And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,.
  • Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess,
    • when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'

• comment

  • In rebuttal to Johan's perspective on Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs),
    • Kevin is addressing the issue of perspectival knowing, and
    • its implications on what solutions we entertain as a global society.
  • The example he cites is Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) illustrates two major perspectives:
    • Johan includes NETs as he see's that without them, the transition goes from manageable to unmanageable
    • Kevin questions the inclusion of the NETs as potentially shutting down discussion about what Johan would consider an unmanageable situation
  • Kevin brings up a valid point for inclusion of other voices, especially those indigenous ones who are still institutionally marginalized not only in economic and cultural spaces, but also academic and intellectual ones.
  • The decolonization of academia takes on a concrete form here. Both the global and local south have lived under severe economic repression for centuries. Anderson's contention is that making do with less is something that billions of people have had to contend with for centuries as a social norm forced upon them by colonialist then post colonialist institutions.
  • Inclusivity of a greater diversity of voices does play an important role in shaping the future direction of humanity.
  • We should be having an open discussion about a Marshall plan and should not be afraid to go there.
    • We had it in WWII, which, while more direct threat, is not as great as the threat of climate change on all life on earth in a slightly greater time scale.
  • The global and local south has a lot to teach the global and local north. For this great transition of humanity to occur likely simultaneously requires
    • radical amounts of resource transfer from the global / local north to the global / local south,and
    • radical degrowth

• for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - NET

• stats

• quote
  • We're increasing emissions today between 1 and 2% per year.
  • Now, to reduce emissions even in the global model runs we have, with optimistic I mean, overly optimistic negative emission technologies – assume mitigation pathways, as you know, between 5 and 7% per year.
  • So that is three times revolution pace, at the current modeling runs.
  • If you take away negative emission technologies, you would exceed 10% very rapidly.
  • You would be more the 10 to 15%.
  • I would call that... That's not revolution, that is a complete disruption of the global economy.
  • It's like a pace that is beyond... I mean then you need to bulldoze down coal-fired plants, basically.
  • You would be in a complete global Marshall Plan. It's a war zone agenda.

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

• for: Johan Rockstrom - wellbeing economy, wellbeing economy, green growth, degrowth, question, question - Johan Rockstrom - green growth or degrowth?
• question
  • Does Johan Rockstrom advocate for a green economy or degrowth?
  • He would seem to be arguing for green growth as degrowth, if not done extremely carefully, can result in a drop in wellbeing.
  • How does he see this taking place when the elites perceive that they have the most (at least materially) to give up? Is there a contradiction here?

• for: climate science - citizen engagement, johan rockstrom - advocacy for citizen engagement, scientist - activism
• comment
  • supporting the previous comment, Johan Rockstrom see's scientists having a much more active role engaging with the public.

• for: Johan Rockstrom - top down strategy, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - climate top down strategy

• quote

  • we have a crisis and things have to change at the global level so fast that we need to correct big system failures at a very large scale. And I'm convinced that that can only be done top-down not bottom-up.
• author: Johan Rockstrom
• date: Sept., 2023

• for: quote, quote - net zero by 2050
• quote
  • reaching zero by 2050 won't take us there
• author: Johan Rockstrom
• date: Sept. 2023

• for: safe and just boundaries, earth system boundaries, planetary boundaries
• title
  • Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Die Earth Commission hat ein neues Konzept für Indikatoren der globalen Gesundheit entwickelt, dass sowohl die planetaren Belastungsgrenzen wie nachhaltige Entwicklung berücksichtigt. Bei sieben von acht dieser Indikatoren stellt die Kommission fest, dass die Grenze zu einer Krisensituation überschritten ist. Die Kommission wurde von führenden Forschungsinstituten zum Erdsystem und der Ökologie des Planeten gebildet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-health-failing-in-seven-out-of-eight-key-measures-say-scientists-earth-commission

• Title

  • How to stop cities and companies causing planetary harm

• Author

  • Xuemei Bai,
  • Anders Bjørn,
  • Şiir Kılkış,
  • Oscar Sabag Muñoz,
  • Gail Whiteman,
  • Holger Hoff,
  • Lauren Seaby Andersen,
  • Johan Rockström

Next year, the Earth Commission, including many of the scientists on this report, will issue a report outlinging the Earth System Boundaries (ESB) to hlep cities and corporations stay within planetary boundaries.

!- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.

!- for : Tipping Point Festival inspiration

Indeed, Wright is right to ask: Is our modern human civilization the greatest progress trap of all?

Exponential technological progress has shortened the time for dangerous levels of resource extraction and pollution loads to the extent that we face the potential of cascading global tipping points and enter a "hothouse earth" state: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Were this to happen, there is no place on earth that would be immune.

In hindsight, the unfortunate but predictable trend is one of every increasing size of progress traps, and ever shorter time windows when serious impacts occur. Today, it appears we have reached the largest size progress trap possible on a finite planet.