- Jan 2021
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yanirseroussi.com yanirseroussi.com
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While no serious climate scientist doubts the fact that human activities are causing climate change, this can’t be proved through experimentation on another Earth.
In both cases, the answers should be clear when looking at the evidence and the mechanisms at play without an ideological bias
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- Oct 2020
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arxiv.org arxiv.org
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Raimondo, S., Benigni, B., & De Domenico, M. (2020). Environmental conditions and human activity nexus. The case of Northern Italy during COVID-19 lockdown. ArXiv:2010.07721 [Physics]. http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.07721
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved October 11, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13749/
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- Aug 2020
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Sharkey, P., & Wood, G. (2020). The Causal Effect of Social Distancing on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/hzj7a
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Gruijters, Stefan L.K. ‘The Fallacy of Manipulation “Checks” in Psychological Experiments’. Preprint. PsyArXiv, 20 August 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/fkzv5.
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covid-19.iza.org covid-19.iza.org
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Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Improve Global Air Quality? New Cross-National Evidence on Its Unintended Consequences. COVID-19 and the Labor Market. (n.d.). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. Retrieved July 29, 2020, from https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13480/
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- Jul 2020
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osf.io osf.io
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Arpino, B., Bordone, V., & Pasqualini, M. (2020). Are intergenerational relationships responsible for more COVID-19 cases? A cautionary tale of available empirical evidence [Preprint]. SocArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/y8hpr
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projecteuclid.org projecteuclid.org
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Shmueli, G. (2010). To Explain or to Predict? Statistical Science, 25(3), 289–310.
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www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
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Huitfeldt, A. (2016). Is caviar a risk factor for being a millionaire? BMJ, 355. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i6536
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Sperrin, M., Martin, G. P., Sisk, R., & Peek, N. (2020). Missing data should be handled differently for prediction than for description or causal explanation. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.03.028
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- Jun 2020
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Brodeur, A., Cook, N., & Heyes, A. (2020). A Proposed Specification Check for p-Hacking. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 66–69. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201078
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- May 2020
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psyarxiv.com psyarxiv.com
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Dsouza, D. D., Quadros, S., Hyderabadwala, Z. J., & Mamun, M. A. (2020). Aggregated COVID-19 suicide incidences in India: Fear of COVID-19 infection is the prominent causative factor [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/7xa4b
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- Apr 2020
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Watts, D. J., Beck, E. D., Bienenstock, E. J., Bowers, J., Frank, A., Grubesic, A., Hofman, J., Rohrer, J. M., & Salganik, M. (2018). Explanation, prediction, and causality: Three sides of the same coin? [Preprint]. Open Science Framework. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/u6vz5
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- Mar 2018
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www.robertasinatra.com www.robertasinatra.com
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Assess-ing causality is one of the most needed futuredevelopments in SciSci: Many descriptive studiesreveal strong associations between structure andoutcomes, but the extent to which a specific struc-ture“causes”an outcome remains unexplored.
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- Mar 2017
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www.defendingscience.org www.defendingscience.org
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A specific component cause mayplay a role in one, two, or all three of thecausal mechanisms pictured
Figure 1 here is particularly important.
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“sufficient cause,” whichmeans a complete causal mechanism, can bedefined as a set of minimal conditions andevents that inevitably produce disease; “mini-mal” implies that all of the conditions orevents are necessary to that occurrence
Set of minimal conditions together define the sufficient cause or complete causal mechanism.
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an event, condition, or characteristicthat preceded the disease event and withoutwhich the disease event either would nothave occurred at all or would not have oc-curred until some later time
The expression, "without which the disease or event would not have occurred", points out to another important concept here, the notion of counterfactual theory of causation.
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We can define a cause of a specific dis-ease event as an antecedent event, condition,or characteristic that was necessary for theoccurrence of the disease at the moment itoccurred
Note the criteria:
- Cause as an event
- Cause as a condition
- Cause as characteristic
- Cause is antecedent
- Cause is necessary
- Cause is conditional We will see all of these conditions expanded
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we need a moregeneral conceptual model that can serve as acommon starting point in discussions ofcausal theories
Note that we start with the example of the bulb and then expand to generalise this example to larger issues -- in our case, health.
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Theeffect usually occurs immediately after turn-ing on the switch, and as a result we slip intothe frame of thinking in which we identify theswitch as a unique cause
Another important point -- often the last observable event tends to be considered the "cause" of an outcome. One must be careful to find out other possible causes of an outcome.
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When allother factors are in place, turning the switchwill cause the light to go on, but if one ormore of the other factors is lacking, the lightwill not go on
This is a very important point in this paper. It points to the notions of multifactorial causality -- that is, an outcome will more often than not have more than one cause, and one cause is not usually sufficient to result in the effect.
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