Building probabilistic causal models has always been a challenge. The direction of causality is often difficult to establish and the process of constructing the causal graph with the probabilities behind requires the input of a variety of domain knowledge experts. Moreover, collecting inputs from experts can be costly and inefficient. But what if expert knowledge can be mined directly from the web from thousands of daily published news articles (wisdom-of-the-crowds) through NLP techniques and streamlined through a fast and automated process that can produce a causal model in a matter of seconds? We discuss an approach in our latest paper:https://lnkd.in/eSDYJ7D#pgm #datascience #bayesiannetworks #causalmodels #artificialintelligence #machinelearning #nlp #finance Pierre Haren Dr. Olav Laudy Allen Ginsberg Marcos Lopez de Prado Gautier Marti Charles-Albert Lehalle Paul Bilokon, PhD Saeed Amen Matthew Dixon Igor Halperin N Joshua Madan Daphne Koller Kevin Murphy Joseph Simonian, Ph.D. Dr. Ron Dembo Alexander Fleiss

“Combining these causal linkswith predictive analytics providesvaluable insights and forecasts onmacroeconomic and microeconomictopics such as market demands andtrends for CFOs to understand howtheir new strategies and investmentscould be perceived by the market,” saysPierre Haren, Ph.D., the CEO and co-founder of Causality Link.

In practice this means the platform will integrate the dat-apoints drawn up by Causality Link’s analysis, togetherwith any other alternative dataset the manager has pur-chased, and overlay it with the firms’ internal analyst emailsand notes.

The platform Causality Link performs both of these tasksfor managers. It provides a “wisdom of crowds” point ofview of the evolution of almost any driver in the world, butit also gives clients a unique causal model that has beenextracted from the knowledge of documents they don’thave the time to read.

Causality Link’s AI-powered research platform extractsthe “causal knowledge” contained within millions of docu-ments and other text-based sources to provide investorsand analysts with a unique perspective on companies,industries and macroeconomics.

“Our research assistance tool worksas the ultimate brain sitting in the middle of a firm, readingeverything on the portfolio managers’ behalf,” says EricJensen, Co-Founder and CTO at Causality Link.

While no serious climate scientist doubts the fact that human activities are causing climate change, this can’t be proved through experimentation on another Earth.

Assess-ing causality is one of the most needed futuredevelopments in SciSci: Many descriptive studiesreveal strong associations between structure andoutcomes, but the extent to which a specific struc-ture“causes”an outcome remains unexplored.

A specific component cause mayplay a role in one, two, or all three of thecausal mechanisms pictured

“sufficient cause,” whichmeans a complete causal mechanism, can bedefined as a set of minimal conditions andevents that inevitably produce disease; “mini-mal” implies that all of the conditions orevents are necessary to that occurrence

an event, condition, or characteristicthat preceded the disease event and withoutwhich the disease event either would nothave occurred at all or would not have oc-curred until some later time

We can define a cause of a specific dis-ease event as an antecedent event, condition,or characteristic that was necessary for theoccurrence of the disease at the moment itoccurred

we need a moregeneral conceptual model that can serve as acommon starting point in discussions ofcausal theories

Theeffect usually occurs immediately after turn-ing on the switch, and as a result we slip intothe frame of thinking in which we identify theswitch as a unique cause

When allother factors are in place, turning the switchwill cause the light to go on, but if one ormore of the other factors is lacking, the lightwill not go on