55 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
  2. Nov 2023
    1. the curse of the climate crisis is that relative to covet and relative to the war moves in slower motion yes and that's a challenge
      • comment
        • if we have to wait until planetary tipping points are triggered, it will be too late. There has to be some other less catastrophic event that happens before that. Perhaps some combination of extreme weather events
        • We need to trigger sufficiently large social tipping points before planetary tipping points are breached.
    1. Eine neue Studie ergibt, dass sich das Abschmelzen des westantarktischen Eisschilds selbst dann fortsetzen wird, wenn die Erderhitzung auf 1,5° begrenzt wird. Das Schelfeis stellt ein Kipppelememt dar. Der Abschmelzvorgang verstärkt sich selbst und führt zu einer unaufhaltsamen Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels, weil er den Weg für das hinter dem Schelfeis gelegene Gletschereis frei macht. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192327/meterhoher-meeresanstieg-durch-abschmelzen-des-westantarktischen-eisschelfs

      Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x

      Mehr zur Studie: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%27report%3A+Unavoidable+future+increase+in+West+Antarctic+ice-shelf+melting%27

    1. Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea

  3. Oct 2023
    1. caling Up Change: A Critical Reviewand Practical Guide to HarnessingSocial Norms for Climate Action
      • for: social tipping points - climate action, climate action - social tipping points, social norms - climate action, climate action - social norms, Damon Centola

      • title: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action

      • author:
        • Sara M. Constantino
        • Gregg Sparkman
        • Gordon T. Kraft-Todd
        • Cristina Bicchieri
        • Damon Centola
        • Bettina Shell-Duncan
        • Sonja Vogt
        • Elke U. Weber
      • date: 2022
  4. Sep 2023
    1. in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
      • quote
        • In a normal distribution,
          • from over here you have the denialists and
          • over here you have the environmental activists.
        • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
        • And the majority are actually
          • we know this from opinion polls
        • very supportive of science.
        • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
        • They want climate action.
        • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
          • children,
          • health,
          • school,
          • financing,
          • incomes.
        • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
        • But that's the question:
          • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
        • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
          • scare them and
          • fight with the denialists.
        • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
      • author: Johan Rockstrom
      • date: Sept., 2023

      • comment

        • in other words
        • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action
    2. our latest science at the Potsdam Institute shows that the Greenland Ice Sheet is connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the ocean circulation of heat. And that the whole AMOC, the North Atlantic overturning of heat, is slowing down because of the release of cold fresh water from the Greenland Ice Sheet. And when that slows down it locks in more warm surface water, saline surface water, in the Southern Ocean. 00:13:55 Which can explain why Antarctica is melting more rapidly than predicted.
      • for: cascading tipping points, cascading tipping points - Greenland - AMOC - Antarctica

      • highlights

        • latest research at PIK shows that the two poles are connected via the AMOC current.
          • Greenland ice sheet melt releasing cold fresh water is slowing down the North Atlantic overturning of heat.
          • The slowdown is keeping more warm saline water in place in the Southern Ocean, accelerating melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.
      • for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
      • title: The Great Disruption has Begun
      • author: Paul Gilding
      • date: Sept 3, 2023
      • source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun
      • summary

        • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
        • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
        • Coins a good meme
          • Everything, everywhere, all at once
        • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
        • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride
      • comment

        • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.
  5. Aug 2023
    1. hat kinds of individuals or teams or communities or systems cognitively are like the early canary in 00:39:47 the coal mine that you think are ready to transform or somebody who like might hear something about a system they're involved in and think actually yeah that sounds like my organization or self might be at this sort of transition 00:39:58 point
      • for: early adopters, social tipping points, wide bridges
      • question
      • paraphrase
        • who are the envisioned early adopters?
          • there are numerous experiments going on everywhere
          • new digital currencies
          • new types of democratic systems
          • new kinds of economic system proposals
          • existing communities may have a few thousand members, but can be exponentially grown to hundreds of millions
          • lots of small prototypes being built right now, we find the optimal ones and scale those
    1. KDNA is still on-air and continues its community-building tradition, as do many other independent and community radio stations nationwide. One unique example is WGXC in New York’s Upper Hudson Valley. A program division of the nonprofit arts organization Wave Farm, WGXC is the only station in the country that dedicates significant airtime to radio as an artistic medium.
      • for: communications, TPF, STP
        • community radio
          • KDNA
          • WGXC
    1. there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
      • question
        • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
    2. Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
      • policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
    3. Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
      • for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
      • study findings
        • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
          • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
            • events that attract attention
            • opinion polls that aggregate information
            • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
          • perserverence
            • leaders who persevere even at great cost
      • for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
      • title
        • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
      • authors
        • Nikos Nikiforakis
        • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
    1. An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points
      • for: social-climatic tipping points, tipping points,
      • title
        • An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points
      • for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

      • title

        • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
      • authors
        • Sirkku Juhola
        • Tatiana Filatova
        • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
        • Reinhard Mechler
        • Jurgen Scheffran
        • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
      • date
        • Sept 21, 2022
      • abstract

        • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
        • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
        • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
        • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
          • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
        • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
        • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
          • social tipping points,
          • climate adaptation limits and
          • systemic risks,
        • which so far have been separate.
        • Furthermore, we discuss
          • methods and
          • models
        • used to illustrate the dynamics of
          • social and
          • adaptation tipping points
        • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
        • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
          • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
      • reference

  6. Jul 2023
    1. we're also showing that these tipping elements are interconnected in 00:10:41 so-called Cascades
      • for: interdependent, emptiness, cascading tipping points
        • the Arctic which is warming three times faster than the planet on average
        • and releases cold fresh water into the North Atlantic slowing down the whole overturning of heat in the North Atlantic
        • which pushes the monsoon further south
        • which can explain droughts and forest fires over the Brazilian part of the Amazon
        • moreover the slowing down of overturning of heat means that more warm water is stuck in the Southern Ocean
        • which can explain why the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than we had expected so there's a connection between the North Pole and the South Pole in this web of interactive tipping elements so
      • This is something we have to recognize we are today a big world on a very small planet and it's all interwired and we are interdependent now
    2. the Breakthrough here is that for the first time we've been able to put temperature thresholds on the 00:08:44 likely temperatures when we cross the Tipping points that's the color schemes you see in the color coding these five are the ones we really need to be concerned with because they are the first ones on the line at 1.5 degrees 00:08:58 Celsius they're likely to cross their tipping points we're talking here about the green and ice sheet the West Antarctic ice sheet all the tropical coral reef systems home to over 500 million people's livelihood 00:09:11 the Boreal permafrost a breath throwing a permafrost and loss of the barren sea ice
      • for tipping point, planetary tipping point
      • likely temperature thresholds for breaching planetary tipping points at 1.5 Deg C
        • Greenland Ice sheet
        • West Antarctica ice sheet
        • tropical coral reef system
        • boreal permafrost
        • Berent sea ice
    1. Im Meer bei Florida wurde eine Oberflächentemperatur von 38,43°C gemessen – möglicherweise ein neuer globaler Rekord. Der Bericht des Guardian geht auf andere marine Hitzewellen und Studien über ihre Zunahme ein. Nach Daten der amerikanischen Wetterbehörde NOAA wurden in diesem Jahr schon im April, Mai und Juni Rekorde bei der Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane gebrochen. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/25/florida-ocean-temperatures-hot-tub-extreme-weather

    1. Eine neue Studie hält es für möglich, dass das Strömungssystem im Nordatlantik seinen Zustand schon in wenigen Jahren so verändert, dass der Golfstrom zusammenbricht. Die Modellierung basiert auf Messungen der Oberflächentemperatur des Nordatlantik seit 1850. Sie legt nahe, dass zwischen 2025 und 2095 ein Kipppunkt erreicht wird, wenn weiter Treibhausgase in die Atmosphäre gepumpt werden. An der Aussagekraft der Daten bestehen aber noch Zweifel. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/climate/atlantic-ocean-tipping-point.html

  7. Apr 2023
  8. Mar 2023
  9. Jan 2023
    1. green and ice sheet accelerated melting warming four times faster than the planet as a whole releasing cold fresh water slowing down the overturning of heat in the North Atlantic pushing the whole Monsoon 00:02:24 system down further south causing droughts and forest fires over the Amazon rainforest one more tipping element system locking warm surface or water in the Southern Ocean accelerating the melting of the West Antarctic ice 00:02:36 sheet the North Pole is connected to the South Pole in regulating the stability of the entire Earth system

      !- cascading tipping points : example - melting Greenland glacier dumps cold fresh water into North Atlantic - excess cold water shows down the AMOC current - a slower AMOC causes monsoons to move further south - this causes drought and forest fires in Amazon rainforest and warms the southern oceans - warning southern oceans accelerates melting of Antarctica ice sheets

      !- comment : slowing AMOC - can also affect many other processes - https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/atlantic-ocean-currents-amoc/

  10. Nov 2022
    1. Das Gletschereis im Norden Grönlands schmilzt sechsmal schneller ab als bisher angenommen. Die Indizien dafür, dass das Kipp-Element Grönländischer Eisschild schon sehr instabil ist, verdichten sich.

  11. Oct 2022
    1. We have left it too late to tackle climate change incrementally. It now requires transformational change, and a dramatic acceleration of progress.

      !- slogan : from climate change to system change

  12. Sep 2022
  13. Jul 2022
    1. Though we do not pursue this point here, it is logical to considerthat poor people will be found to experience a greater psychological pressure to identify with theirpersonware as this reduces the overwhelming cognitive load they are subject to.) The task is then onlyto take care that the personware remains consistent with the social roles available—and to steer clearof anything that reminds one of what has thus been lost

      !- insight : poor identify with their personware * it just brings too much pain to know what one is denied

      !- for : social tipping points * building wide bridges requires uniting diverse groups * understanding this self denial as a form of survival is important to understand the psychology of the oppressed

    1. Most academics continue to insist that it is still – barely – physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C. There are strong incentives to stay behind the invisible line that separates academia from wider social and political concerns, and so to not take a clear position about this.But we need to clearly acknowledge now that warming will exceed 1.5°C because we are losing vital reaction time by entertaining fantastic scenarios. The sooner we get real about our current situation and what it demands, the better.

      Slight chance. We need nonlinear solutions and to find all the leverage points, social tipping points and idling capacity we can.:

      Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1900577117&group=world

      An Introduction to PLAN E Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First-Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usmcu.edu%2FOutreach%2FMarine-Corps-University-Press%2FExpeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal%2FAn-Introduction-to-PLAN-E%2Ffbclid%2FIwAR3facE8l6Jk4Msc8C1nw8yWtwnzSCXVZGlO7JLkjqo8CWYTYAqAMTPkTO8%2F&group=world

      Science Driven Societal Transformation https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2Fz9ZCjd2rqGY%2F&group=world

  14. Jun 2022
    1. Milkoreit et al. (23) propose a common definition of social tipping points (STPs) as points “within an SES at which a small quantitative change inevitably triggers a non-linear change in the social component of the SES, driven by self-reinforcing positive-feedback mechanisms, that inevitably and often irreversibly lead to a qualitatively different state of the social system.” There are historical examples of dynamic social spreading effects leading to a large self-amplification of small interventions: For example, the writings of one man, Martin Luther, injected through newly available printing technology into a public ready for such change, triggered the worldwide establishment of Protestant churches (24). An example in the field of climate policy is the introduction of tariffs, subsidies, and mandates to incentivize the growth of renewable energy production. This has led to a substantial system response in the form of mutually reinforcing market growth and exponential technology cost improvement (25, 26).In this paper, we examine a number of potential “social tipping elements” (STEs) for decarbonization (27, 28) that represent specific subdomains of the planetary social-economic system. Tipping of these subsystems could be triggered by “social tipping interventions” (STIs) that could contribute to rapid transition of the world system into a state of net zero anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.


      STP - social tipping point STE - social tipping element STI - social tipping intervention

    1. Why is it nearly invisible?

      triggering social tipping points and mitigating collective illusion of climate change can make it visible rapidly.

    2. Those communities that reject business as usual and cut their energy spending and all the materialist values that go with it, just might survive the long emergency and write a different ending to this story.

      Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.

  15. May 2022
    1. Similar to the way in which oil field executives were invited to Washington, DC, to help the United States mobilize during World War II, the hyper-response will adopt a similar approach to the task of building a new material security net. Leaders in the areas of renewable energy, zero emissions and ecological design, resource eagles, defense, and other relevant research and development fields, as well as tradespeople, will be invited to plan and deliver one of the largest engineering and human training and employment feats in world history. OP NewNet will jump-start humanity’s fight back against the hyperthreat.

      to achieve large mobilization, a cascading social tipping point strategy can be fruitful, coupled with a conditional onboarding such as employed in the Simpol strategy: https://www.simpol.ph/ Conditional onboarding works because, like crowdfunding, nobody needs to make any resource commitment unless sufficient momentum is demonstrated.

  16. Jan 2022
    1. Our last, best hope of averting systemic environmental collapse is to use the peculiarities of complex systems to trigger cascading political regime shifts.

      Prioritizing the application of social tipping point theory.

  17. Nov 2021
    1. A final cluster gathers lenses that explore phenomena that are arguably more elastic and with the potential to both indirectly maintain and explicitly reject and reshape existing norms. Many of the topics addressed here can be appropriately characterized as bottom-up, with strong and highly diverse cultural foundations. Although they are influenced by global and regional social norms, the expert framing of institutions, and the constraints of physical infrastructure (from housing to transport networks), they are also domains of experimentation, new norms, and cultural change. Building on this potential for either resisting or catalyzing change, the caricature chosen here is one of avian metaphor and myth: the Ostrich and Phoenix cluster. Ostrich-like behavior—keeping heads comfortably hidden in the sand—is evident in different ways across the lenses of inequity (Section 5.1), high-carbon lifestyles (Section 5.2), and social imaginaries (Section 5.3), which make up this cluster. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyond dominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of transformation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It is conceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the Enabler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The very early signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequently elaborated upon in the latter part of the discussion.

      The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.

      Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

      The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.

      The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.

      There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.

      A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__

  18. Oct 2021
  19. bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeiery76ov25qa7hpadaiziuwhebaefhpxzzx6t6rchn7b37krzgroi.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyonddominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of trans-formation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It isconceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the En-abler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The veryearly signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequentlyelaborated in the latter part of the discussion.

      This passage pays homage to Donella Meadows, who identified the shift in mindset or paradigm that supports the system as the top leverage point. If we can shift this mindset in sufficient number of people, it can shift the thinking of the Enabler Cluster identified in the paper. A social tipping point strategy can be adopted to help this to happen quickly. This strategy is being developed by Stop Reset Go and other civil society actors.

  20. May 2021
  21. Apr 2021
    1. Currently, Pine Island Glacier together with its neighbouring Thwaites glacier are responsible for about 10% of the ongoing increase in global sea level.
    2. Researchers have confirmed for the first time that Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, leading to a rapid and irreversible retreat which would have significant consequences for global sea level.
  22. Feb 2021
    1. Es geht darum, dass es vom Tempo der Änderungen, nicht nur von der Größe abhängt, wann ein Kippelement ausgelöst wird. Konkret würde dass für die nordatlantische Strömung in einer Simulation herausgefunden.

  23. Dec 2020
  24. Oct 2020