Read Minority Rules: Scientists Discover Tipping Point for the Spread of Ideas by Gabrielle DeMarco

found via: https://hypothes.is/a/kMVt4rC4Ee6E5bdC29_e_g

• for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.

• for: system change - where to start

• paraphrase

  • You don't start a feminist revolution by arguing with your dad. He might be the one who needs to change, but that doesn't mean that you start there.
  • You start by talking to each other. We need to come together. We need to have solidarity.
  • We need to have a common narrative and analysis and understanding of what's happening.
  • And I think a common understanding of pathways of change and we need that core nucleus of people who really are working for system change.
  • I think that's where we start. And hopefully, the narrative and the clarity that we can bring will be compelling enough that we will win more hearts and minds

• comment

  • cascading social tipping points

• for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• NOTE

  • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp

• SUMMARY

  • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

  • Positive tipping points

    • not as well studied as negative tipping points
    • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
      • politics
      • psychology
    • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change

• SPEAKER PANEL

  • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
  • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
  • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report

• Global Carbon Budget report summary

• 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

  • graph
  • comment
    • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.

• 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

• three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

• 00:21:55: CDR

  • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
  • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions

• 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

  • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
  • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
  • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2

• Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

• adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

  • 194 billion / year
  • 366 billion / year by 2030
• climate change increases transboundary issues
  • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
  • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
  • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

-00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

• 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

• 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

  • Greenland Ice Sheet
  • West Antarctic
  • Permafrost
  • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
  • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
    • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate

• 00:35:39

  • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.

• 00:36:00

  • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

-00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

• 00:37:30

  • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.

• 00:38:10

  • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
  • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
  • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal

• for: social tipping points - political, quote - french Revolution - Denmark

• quote.

  • the French Revolution happened in Denmark

• for: answer to above question

• answer : two answers

  • first, the elite have the majority of
    • wealth
    • control of setting policies
    • control of the media
    • and they work really hard at controlling policy and media
    • and the people
      • hate the system
      • generally hate them
  • second, social tipping points occur. Something happened in over place, then it spreads to other places

• for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors

• title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

• author: Manjana Miikoreit

• date: Nov 17, 2022

• abstract

  • The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
    • understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
  • A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
  • In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
    • climate tipping points and
    • ecological regime shifts–
  • STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
  • Drawing on
    • a well-established definition for tipping points, and
    • a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
  • this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
    • (i) premature labeling,
    • (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
    • (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
    • (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
  • Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
  • Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
    • the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
    • future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
  • Future research should seek to
    • identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
      • many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
      • certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.

• for: planetary tipping points, global tipping points, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• for:social tipping points - within safe and just earth system boundaries

• comment
  • if we have to wait until planetary tipping points are triggered, it will be too late. There has to be some other less catastrophic event that happens before that. Perhaps some combination of extreme weather events
  • We need to trigger sufficiently large social tipping points before planetary tipping points are breached.

• for: individual/collective gestalt, social tipping points

• for: social tipping points - climate action, climate action - social tipping points, social norms - climate action, climate action - social norms, Damon Centola

• title: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action

• author:
  • Sara M. Constantino
  • Gregg Sparkman
  • Gordon T. Kraft-Todd
  • Cristina Bicchieri
  • Damon Centola
  • Bettina Shell-Duncan
  • Sonja Vogt
  • Elke U. Weber
• date: 2022

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

• for: early adopters, social tipping points, wide bridges
• question
• paraphrase
  • who are the envisioned early adopters?
    • there are numerous experiments going on everywhere
    • new digital currencies
    • new types of democratic systems
    • new kinds of economic system proposals
    • existing communities may have a few thousand members, but can be exponentially grown to hundreds of millions
    • lots of small prototypes being built right now, we find the optimal ones and scale those

• for: communications, TPF, STP
  • community radio
    • KDNA
    • WGXC

• for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
• question
  • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?

• for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
• policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds

• for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
• study findings
  • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
    • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
      • events that attract attention
      • opinion polls that aggregate information
      • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
    • perserverence
      • leaders who persevere even at great cost

• for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
• title
  • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
• authors
  • Nikos Nikiforakis
  • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni

• for: social-climatic tipping points, tipping points,
• title
  • An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold

• title

  • Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
• source
  • https://theconversation.com/climate-change-can-drive-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-for-worse-210641
• date
  • July 31, 2023
• author
  • Sonia Graham
• reference
  • https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10516

• for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

• title

  • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
• authors
  • Sirkku Juhola
  • Tatiana Filatova
  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
  • Reinhard Mechler
  • Jurgen Scheffran
  • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
• date
  • Sept 21, 2022

• abstract

  • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
  • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
  • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
  • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
    • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
  • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
  • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
    • social tipping points,
    • climate adaptation limits and
    • systemic risks,
  • which so far have been separate.
  • Furthermore, we discuss
    • methods and
    • models
  • used to illustrate the dynamics of
    • social and
    • adaptation tipping points
  • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
  • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
    • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

• reference

  • https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/news/social-tipping-points-spotlight

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP

• reference

  • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.frontiersin.org%2Farticles%2F10.3389%2Ffclim.2022.1009234&group=world

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, STP, Tim Lenton, positive tipping points

!- slogan : from climate change to system change

!- insight : poor identify with their personware * it just brings too much pain to know what one is denied

!- for : social tipping points * building wide bridges requires uniting diverse groups * understanding this self denial as a form of survival is important to understand the psychology of the oppressed

Slight chance. We need nonlinear solutions and to find all the leverage points, social tipping points and idling capacity we can.:

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1900577117&group=world

An Introduction to PLAN E Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First-Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usmcu.edu%2FOutreach%2FMarine-Corps-University-Press%2FExpeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal%2FAn-Introduction-to-PLAN-E%2Ffbclid%2FIwAR3facE8l6Jk4Msc8C1nw8yWtwnzSCXVZGlO7JLkjqo8CWYTYAqAMTPkTO8%2F&group=world

Science Driven Societal Transformation https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2Fz9ZCjd2rqGY%2F&group=world

Accronyms:

STP - social tipping point STE - social tipping element STI - social tipping intervention

triggering social tipping points and mitigating collective illusion of climate change can make it visible rapidly.

Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.

to achieve large mobilization, a cascading social tipping point strategy can be fruitful, coupled with a conditional onboarding such as employed in the Simpol strategy: https://www.simpol.ph/ Conditional onboarding works because, like crowdfunding, nobody needs to make any resource commitment unless sufficient momentum is demonstrated.

Prioritizing the application of social tipping point theory.

The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.

Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.

The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.

There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.

A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__

This passage pays homage to Donella Meadows, who identified the shift in mindset or paradigm that supports the system as the top leverage point. If we can shift this mindset in sufficient number of people, it can shift the thinking of the Enabler Cluster identified in the paper. A social tipping point strategy can be adopted to help this to happen quickly. This strategy is being developed by Stop Reset Go and other civil society actors.

Auch hier wird auf das Modell der Social tipping points zurückgegriffen.