https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000231472/great-barrier-reef-zeigt-ein-grossteil-der-korallen-der-welt-ist-verloren

for - progress trap - archeology - Easter Island

progress trap - archeology - Easter Island - The archeology tells the fascinating story of the progress trap that Eastern Island ancestors created. - Easter Island is desolate and only 64 square miles total - It is located 2,000 miles (3218 km) from the nearest landmass of South America - Archeologists trying to piece together the stone monoliths of Easter Island found pollen samples in the crater lakes on the island, proving that the place was once a thriving forest - By the time the first Europeans landed (the Dutch) on Easter Island, it was just grassy hills - How did it go from a lush forest land to a grass land? - The layers of pollen samples told a story - The aboriginal polynesians that the Dutch explorers encountered arrived about 1,000 years earlier - They cut down the forest, grew their population and used trees in many ways, including to transport the huge stone monoliths that paid respect to their ancestors - The original people multiplied then separated into separate warring tribes - The environment was devastated as the logging destroyed the forest and all the abundant ecosystem that provided for their sustenance - This created severe erosion and the soil became impoverished - The tribes collapses into warfare and cannibalism

progress trap - Easter Island - Sumeria etc - lesson - don't romanticize our ancestors - Human groups have continuously sabotaged themselves through overexploitation and lack of foresight - Progress traps have been a constant part of our species for a long, long time

Résumé de la vidéo [00:00:00][^1^][1] - [00:31:00][^2^][2] :

Cette vidéo présente les conceptualisations cindyniques de la guerre, une approche développée par Georges-Yves Kerven pour appréhender la complexité et la vulnérabilité des situations de conflit. L'intervenant, Jan-Cedric Hansen, explique les notions clés des cindyniques, tels que l'organisme, l'hyperespace du danger, les déficits cindynogènes, et les applique à l'analyse des armées et des États en tant qu'organismes cindyniques. Il montre comment les cindyniques permettent d'identifier et de cartographier les vulnérabilités masquées, de les classer selon une taxonomie, et de les prévenir ou de les exploiter selon les buts de guerre.

Points clés : + [00:01:11][^3^][3] La guerre comme phénomène de violence en action collective * Définition de la guerre selon Kerven : un ensemble de situations possibles contenu dans une situation d'ensemble * Nécessité de prendre en compte un complexe risque-conflit-développement + [00:03:12][^4^][4] Les cindyniques comme sciences du danger * Étymologie : du grec kundunô, je mets en danger * Objectif : appréhender la complexité des situations dangereuses * Méthodologie : définir l'organisme, le jeu d'interactions entre un contexte, des décideurs, des acteurs, des organisations + [00:05:07][^5^][5] L'armée comme organisme cindynique * Application des cindyniques à l'analyse de l'armée en tant qu'entité coordonnée, placée dans un environnement, un contexte et un milieu * Utilisation de l'hyperespace du danger, composé de cinq dimensions : téléologique, axiologique, déontologique, statistique, épistémique * Identification des déficits cindynogènes, sources de vulnérabilité, à chaque niveau : global, individuel, inter-individuel, organisationnel + [00:13:00][^6^][6] L'État comme organisme cindynique * Reproduction de la même démarche au niveau d'un État, en relation avec d'autres États, alliés ou adversaires * Prise en compte des cindyniques du premier ordre (les cinq dimensions) et du second ordre (les combinaisons de deux dimensions)

Résumé de la vidéo [00:15:00][^1^][1] - [00:31:00][^2^][2] :

Cette partie de la vidéo présente les concepts de cindynique, une approche qui permet d'appréhender la complexité et la vulnérabilité des situations de guerre. L'orateur explique comment les cindyniques définissent l'organisme, le milieu, le contexte et l'environnement, et comment ils utilisent l'hyperespace du danger pour analyser les dimensions téléologique, axiologique, déontologique, statistique et épistémique d'une situation. Il montre comment les cindyniques identifient les déficits systémiques, individuels, organisationnels et les dissonances qui peuvent générer des situations syndinogènes, c'est-à-dire de danger. Il illustre son propos avec des exemples tirés de l'histoire militaire et des conflits contemporains.

Points clés : + [00:15:00][^3^][3] Les cindyniques, une science du danger * Une démarche pour appréhender la complexité * Un organisme, un ensemble d'éléments coordonnés * Un milieu, l'ensemble des éléments physiques ou matériels * Un contexte, l'ensemble des circonstances médiates ou immédiates * Un environnement, l'ensemble des conditions sociétales ou éthiques + [00:19:19][^4^][4] L'hyperespace du danger, un outil d'analyse * Cinq dimensions : téléologique, axiologique, déontologique, statistique, épistémique * Chaque dimension interroge un aspect de la situation : la finalité, les valeurs, les normes, les données, les modèles * Chaque dimension peut être cartographiée et quantifiée + [00:24:00][^5^][5] Les déficits syndinogènes, des sources de vulnérabilité * Quatre types de déficits : systémiques, individuels, organisationnels, dissonances * Chaque déficit correspond à un niveau : global, individuel, inter-individuel, organisationnel * Chaque déficit peut être prévenu ou corrigé par des mesures appropriées * La conjonction de plusieurs déficits peut entraîner une situation de tension critique * Exemples de vulnérabilités masquées au niveau systémique, individuel, organisationnel et inter-individuel

• for: adjacency - rules of the game - violence, dangers of not playing by the rules of the game

• adjacency between

  • rules of the game
  • violence
• adjacency statement
  • When people cannot agree on the rules of the democratic game, we are just one step away from violence
  • Homer-Dixon explores the relationship between environmental breakdown and violence in an earlier book
  • If you believe your "opponent" is not playing by the rules of the game, then they are outside the moral ambit of your community, and you can justify violence
  • Their status as a human being is no longer legitimate and they are dehumanized. Violence is now possible
  • Whenever a group feels another group is not playing by the rules of the game, it is a very dangerous situation as violence can be justified on these grounds

To achieve goals, raise the floor, FOCUS on removing bottlenecks. Also create constraints by Schwerpunkt (primary objective), contrary to common wisdom, constraint actually gives freedom, it prevents analysis paralysis.

Warner, E. L., Barbati, J. L., Duncan, K. L., Yan, K., & Rains, S. A. (2022). Vaccine misinformation types and properties in Russian troll tweets. Vaccine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.12.040

Gye, H. (2021, November 29). All adults to be offered booster jabs after 3 months, and over-12s to get second doses. Inews.Co.Uk. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-booster-jabs-to-be-offered-all-adults-after-3-months-and-over-12s-second-doses-1325151

After downloading a file from a website recommended by this webpage for Android 11: Google: "Failed - Virus detected" Microsoft Antivirus Defender: Threat Severe

Stanley-Becker, I. (n.d.). Anti-vaccine protest at Dodger Stadium was organized on Facebook, including promotion of banned ‘Plandemic’ video. Washington Post. Retrieved 21 February 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/01/dodgers-anti-vaccine-protest-facebook/

This is a big lesson. As a field, we still have not thoroughly learned it, as we are continuing to make the same kind of mistakes. To see this, and to effectively resist it, we have to understand the appeal of these mistakes. We have to learn the bitter lesson that building in how we think we think does not work in the long run. The bitter lesson is based on the historical observations that 1) AI researchers have often tried to build knowledge into their agents, 2) this always helps in the short term, and is personally satisfying to the researcher, but 3) in the long run it plateaus and even inhibits further progress, and 4) breakthrough progress eventually arrives by an opposing approach based on scaling computation by search and learning. The eventual success is tinged with bitterness, and often incompletely digested, because it is success over a favored, human-centric approach.

Martin, N. (n.d.). Nobody Accurately Tracks Health Care Workers Lost to COVID-19. So She Stays Up At Night Cataloging the Dead. ProPublica. Retrieved March 1, 2021, from https://www.propublica.org/article/nobody-accurately-tracks-health-care-workers-lost-to-covid-19-so-she-stays-up-at-night-cataloging-the-dead?token=k0iWSlfCBQl5DBRfyvJNIuVaKXSL22HN

the Guardian. ‘There’s No Proof the Oxford Vaccine Causes Blood Clots. So Why Are People Worried? | David Spiegelhalter’, 15 March 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links.

ReconfigBehSci on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://twitter.com/SciBeh/status/1318119595497168897

Ending Covid-19 via herd immunity is “a dangerous fallacy.” (2020, October 14). The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/ending-covid-19-via-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy

Alter, S. M., Maki, D. G., LeBlang, S., Shih, R. D., & Hennekens, C. H. (2020). The menacing assaults on science, FDA, CDC, and health of the US public. EClinicalMedicine, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100581

Mecit, Alican, L. J. Shrum, and Tina M. Lowrey. ‘COVID-19 Is Feminine: Grammatical Gender Influences Future Danger Perceptions and Precautionary Behavior’. Preprint. PsyArXiv, 30 September 2020. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/x8kp2.

Tim Colbourn on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 26, 2020, from https://twitter.com/timcolbourn/status/1309216048374218761

Mike Caulfield on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2020, from https://twitter.com/holden/status/1308205813475897344

Challenges numériques sur les réseaux sociaux

Service, B. W. (n.d.). Fire Danger—Province of British Columbia. Province of British Columbia. Retrieved June 17, 2020, from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/wildfire-situation/fire-danger

Bromage, E. (2020, May 6). The Risks—Know Them—Avoid Them. Erin Bromage PhD: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Devereux, H. (2020 May 04). Thousands of seafarers are stranded aboard ships, with no end to their shift in sight. The Conversation. http://theconversation.com/thousands-of-seafarers-are-stranded-aboard-ships-with-no-end-to-their-shift-in-sight-137324

Heathers, J. (2020 April 13). Hurry, don't rush. Medium. https://medium.com/@jamesheathers/hurry-dont-rush-e1aee626e733

Chater, N. (2020). Facing up to the uncertainties of COVID-19. Nature Human Behaviour, 1–1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0865-2

Echoing Woodrow Wilson's request for a Declaration of War in 1917, this statement makes the question of suffrage seem like a danger.

They're traps!

It would also be more dangerous to say we know what rhetoric is -- to define it as one thing.

And if you try to, you're probably a fucking monster.

Mastery is a very interesting word here. It would be assumed that anything that humans have the capability to create we could retain mastery over. It is also interesting to consider the two meanings we could take from mastery. On one hand its that we are the masters or owners of that object, on the other it could be a mastery in the way a person masters a craft or a skill. So would this quote mean that compared to improving technology and the possibility of an ultra-intelligent A.I, our skill of creating technology would appear to be becoming obsolete, or does it mean the gradual loss of our control over technology? Either way it raises an important concern over the dangers of advancing technology and the ever looming possibility of an ultra-intelligent A.I.

Danger of rhetoric. Reflects modern view of empty language