The UK has now experienced nearly a year of lockdowns and social restrictions, but there are areas of the world where life is approaching normality. Good governance and strict border policies mean residents in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam are enjoying relaxed restrictions and little to no community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes covid-19.

How will zero-covid countries safely reopen their borders?

Some people with long covid, in which individuals have long-lasting symptoms after a covid-19 infection, are reporting improvements in their health after being vaccinated against the coronavirus. The reports are based on anecdotes and a small, informal survey rather than a scientific study, but the trend might offer clues to what causes the persistent symptoms.

Coronavirus vaccines may reduce or eliminate symptoms of long covid

arXiv:2103.03709

In this Chapter, we discuss the effects of higher-order structures on SIS-like processes of social contagion. After a brief motivational introduction where we illustrate the standard SIS process on networks and the difference between simple and complex contagions, we introduce spreading processes on higher-order structures starting from the most general formulation on hypergraphs and then moving to several mean-field and heterogeneous mean-field approaches. The results highlight the rich phenomenology brought by taking into account higher-order contagion effects: both continuous and discontinuous transitions are observed, and critical mass effects emerge. We conclude with a short discussion on the theoretical results regarding the nature of the epidemic transition and the general need for data to validate these models.

Social contagion on higher-order structures

Evidence suggests that some sexual and gender minorities — especially people of color — are hesitant to get vaccinated due to mistrust of the medical establishment.

L.G.B.T.Q. People Face Increased Risks From Covid, but Many Don’t Want the Vaccine

Serological rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used across pathologies, often providing users a simple, binary result (positive or negative) in as little as 5 to 20 min. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, new RDTs for identifying SARS-CoV-2 have rapidly proliferated. However, these seemingly easy-to-read tests can be highly subjective, and interpretations of the visible “bands” of color that appear (or not) in a test window may vary between users, test models, and brands. We developed and evaluated the accuracy/performance of a smartphone application (xRCovid) that uses machine learning to classify SARS-CoV-2 serological RDT results and reduce reading ambiguities. Across 11 COVID-19 RDT models, the app yielded 99.3% precision compared to reading by eye. Using the app replaces the uncertainty from visual RDT interpretation with a smaller uncertainty of the image classifier, thereby increasing confidence of clinicians and laboratory staff when using RDTs, and creating opportunities for patient self-testing.

Using artificial intelligence to improve COVID-19 rapid diagnostic test result interpretation

The popular advice is to “live in the moment.” Being “present” helps us combat stress and chronic pain and improve general well-being.But research suggests that we can adapt to challenging circumstances by doing the opposite. There may be advantages to not being present.

‘Mental time travel’ is one of many imaginative ways we can cope with the pandemic

Here we provide a brief “primer” to assist healthcare providers in correcting a growing body of misinformation surrounding COVID-19 vaccines.

Correcting COVID-19 vaccine misinformationLancet Commission on COVID-19 Vaccines and Therapeutics Task Force Members*

There are 4 variants of concern,designated:•VOC202012/01(B.1.1.7), first detected in KentEnglandis predominant in all regionsand is circulating inmultiple countries•VOC 202102/02(B.1.1.7 cluster with E484K mutation), first detected in South West Englandhas been detected in 23cases•VOC202012/02(B.1.351), first detected in South Africa, 126case havebeen detected in England with evidence of in country transmission.Local testing is underway and links between cases are being investigated•VOC202101/02(P.1),firstdetected inBrazilhas not been detected in the UK

Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in England

Nafeez Ahmed reveals how COVID pseudoscience and anti-lockdown groups have morphed into a sophisticated, well-funded global network

Advising Global COVID-19 Disinformation Network Linked to Nigel Farage & Conservative Party

Vaccines, when available, will likely become our best tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, vaccine shortages will likely occur. Using an age-stratified mathematical model paired with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for four different metrics (deaths, symptomatic infections, and maximum non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations) under many scenarios. We find that a vaccine with effectiveness ≥50% would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic, provided that a high percentage of the population is optimally vaccinated. When minimizing deaths, we find that for low vaccine effectiveness, irrespective of vaccination coverage, it is optimal to allocate vaccine to high-risk (older) age groups first. In contrast, for higher vaccine effectiveness, there is a switch to allocate vaccine to high-transmission (younger) age groups first for high vaccination coverage. While there are other societal and ethical considerations, this work can provide an evidence-based rationale for vaccine prioritization.

10.1126/sciadv.abf1374

Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first?

City centres lying empty because so many people are working from home have received considerable media attention since the pandemic took hold. As the picture of a post-COVID world slowly comes into focus, it seems we are unlikely to return to the office in the same numbers as before. Large companies such as Aviva, Dropbox and Facebook have already committed to continuing remote working in the years to come. This has important implications for where economic activity takes place. Not only will it affect city centres, it also means that many residential neighbourhoods are likely to change permanently.

Five charts that reveal how remote working could change the UK

COVID-19 has challenged health-care systems in an unprecedented manner. As recorded deaths exceed 2 million worldwide, countries continue to grapple with policies that balance health care and economic stresses. Strategic international coordination and cooperation remain haphazard. Here we reflect on our experiences in delivering a non-invasive respiratory support device that highlights the need for a more responsive, harmonised approach.Countries with restricted technological or manufacturing capacities depend heavily on imports to maintain health-care delivery. In early 2020, self-interest took hold, with nearly 80 countries imposing restrictions on the export of medical supplies.1United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentExport restrictions: fighting COVID-19 with hands tied.https://unctad.org/news/export-restrictions-fighting-covid-19-hands-tiedDate: April 28, 2020Date accessed: December 4, 2020Google Scholar Available equipment was often sold at hugely inflated prices, as unscrupulous manufacturers sought to profit, and more prosperous countries were prepared to outbid others to secure scarce resources, such as ventilators and personal protective equipment.2National Audit OfficeInvestigation into how government increased the number of ventilators available to the NHS in response to COVID-19.https://www.nao.org.uk/report/increasing-ventilator-capacity-in-response-to-covid-19/Date: Sept 30, 2020Date accessed: December 4, 2020Google Scholar These issues disproportionately exposed low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and some of the most vulnerable of the global population to poor COVID-19 health outcomes.

10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00028-0

Lessons and risks of medical device deployment in a global pandemic

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008684

In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is being used worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. The impact of these measures has been inconsistent, with some regions rapidly nearing disease elimination and others seeing delayed peaks or nearly flat epidemic curves. Here we build a stochastic epidemic model to examine the effects of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission network structure on the outcomes of social distancing interventions. Our simulations show that long delays between the adoption of control measures and observed declines in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occur in many scenarios. We find that the strength of within-household transmission is a critical determinant of success, governing the timing and size of the epidemic peak, the rate of decline, individual risks of infection, and the success of partial relaxation measures. The structure of residual external connections, driven by workforce participation and essential businesses, interacts to determine outcomes. We suggest limited conditions under which the formation of household “bubbles” can be safe. These findings can improve future predictions of the timescale and efficacy of interventions needed to control second waves of COVID-19 as well as other similar outbreaks, and highlight the need for better quantification and control of household transmission.

10.31234/osf.io/hcbmw

The paper investigates the influence of ideology on trust in scientists. We assume that during a pandemic, ideology is linked to levels of trust in scientists, such that those espousing left- (vs. right-) wing beliefs place more trust in the scientific profession. We posit that the negative perception of scientists, a feature of right-wing narratives in the country of study, underlies this effect. Additionally, we argue that ideology has an indirect impact, via levels of trust in scientists, on beliefs and attitudes towards vaccines and vaccine policy. To test these hypotheses, we conducted three studies (total N = 1155): one pre-pandemic study and two studies during a pandemic. The results confirm the hypotheses; however, we observed varied effects at the outset of the pandemic versus later stages. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussion around the ideological underpinnings of trust in scientists and carry implications for public health measures.

Ideology shapes trust in scientists and attitudes towards vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic

Up to 100 children a week are being hospitalised with a rare disease that can emerge weeks after Covid-19, leaving them in intensive care, doctors have said.In a phenomenon that is worrying paediatricians, 75% of the children worst affected by paediatric inflammatory multi-system syndrome (PIMS) were black, Asian or ethnic minority (BAME). Almost four out of five children were previously healthy, according to an unpublished snapshot of cases.

Up to 100 UK children a week hospitalised with rare post-Covid disease

10.1038/s42255-021-00347-1

Infection-related diabetes can arise as a result of virus-associated β-cell destruction. Clinical data suggest that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), impairs glucose homoeostasis, but experimental evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can infect pancreatic tissue has been lacking. In the present study, we show that SARS-CoV-2 infects cells of the human exocrine and endocrine pancreas ex vivo and in vivo. We demonstrate that human β-cells express viral entry proteins, and SARS-CoV-2 infects and replicates in cultured human islets. Infection is associated with morphological, transcriptional and functional changes, including reduced numbers of insulin-secretory granules in β-cells and impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. In COVID-19 full-body postmortem examinations, we detected SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein in pancreatic exocrine cells, and in cells that stain positive for the β-cell marker NKX6.1 and are in close proximity to the islets of Langerhans in all four patients investigated. Our data identify the human pancreas as a target of SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggest that β-cell infection could contribute to the metabolic dysregulation observed in patients with COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 infects and replicates in cells of the human endocrine and exocrine pancreas

COVID-19 and Digital Contact Tracing: Regulating the Future of Public Health Surveillance

Digital surveillance tools—technological means of monitoring, tracking, and notifying—are at the forefront of public health response strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic. Comprehensive and effective digital public health surveillance requires that public health authorities, regulatory powers, and developers consider interdisciplinary approaches. This entails accounting for the use of proximity data and Bluetooth technology; notification systems from technology companies; and laws and regulations associated with health information, biometric privacy, and mobile data. Of particular importance is incorporation of epidemiological considerations in development and implementation of digital tools, including usability across mobile devices, interoperability, regulation of literacy and disability compatibility, and incentivization for adoption. It is both feasible and prudent that the United States establish a federal network for public health surveillance aided by digital tools, especially considering that waves of COVID-19 are expected to continue well into 2021 and while the threat of other emerging infectious diseases persists.

As the UK waits out its third national lockdown, Christina Pagel lays out the steps needed for a country to exit the cycle On 4 January, just as the rollout of new vaccines seemed to offer hope on the horizon, England entered its third national lockdown, following the likes of France, Germany, and Spain back into a familiar cycle of restrictions and perseverance. Countries all over the world are grappling with the same dilemma. Until populations at large are vaccinated, people are not safe from covid-19, and though we know a lot more about the virus than a year ago, the many questions that remain mean the blunt tool of lockdowns and other social restrictions are the main weapon used, in Europe at least, against a virus that has infected over 100 million people and claimed over two million lives so far. As millions are vaccinated across the UK, at what point is it safe to lift restrictions?

Covid-19: How to break the cycle of lockdowns

10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5

After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave.1Lucy CO Verity R Watson OJ et al.Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?.Lancet. 2020; 395: e110-e111Summary Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (11) Google Scholar By contrast, in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020.2Buss LF Prete CA Abrahim CMM et al.Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.Science. 2020; 371: 288-292Crossref Google Scholar High attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 were also estimated in population-based samples from other locations in the Amazon Basin—eg, Iquitos, Peru 70% (67–73).3Álvarez-Antonio C Meza-Sánchez G Calampa C et al.Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.MedRxiv. 2021; (published online 20.) (preprint)https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913Google Scholar The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R0) of 3.4

Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

10.1038/d41586-021-00183-z

Nature’s third progress report, coming at the end of the pandemic’s first year, highlights key findings from epidemiology — from sounding the early alarm to following the impact of new variants

How epidemiology has shaped the COVID pandemic

New analysis has found that New Zealand has handled the coronavirus pandemic more effectively than any other country in the world. Key points:The Lowy Institute has looked at which countries and what types of Governments responded bestAustralia has been ranked as eighth in the worldThe Institute found there was not a great difference between rich and poor countriesAustralian think tank the Lowy Institute has crunched reams of data to produce a new interactive that assesses the coronavirus response of almost 100 nations. Researchers tracked COVID-19 case numbers in each country, as well as confirmed deaths and testing rates. While New Zealand took top spot, it was closely followed by Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, which were ranked second, third and fourth, respectively.

New Zealand tops Lowy Institute list as country with best response to coronavirus, Australia sits eighth

10.1101/2021.01.25.21250356

Trends, regional variation, and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 vaccine recipients: a retrospective cohort study in 23.4 million patients using OpenSAFELY.

The conditions required for the transport of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus in the atmosphere over long distances and in sufficient concentrations to cause infection in exposed animals are described. Using these factors a series of 23 outbreaks of FMD in Europe, where the original outbreaks were separated from later outbreaks by sea passage, have been investigated. The findings obtained support the hypothesis that under certain conditions the airborne transmission of FMD over a long sea passage is possible.

10.1136/vr.110.3.47

Long distance transport of foot-and-mouth disease virus over the sea